Thursday Winds of War: 15DEC05

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The Thursday Winds of War briefing is compiled weekly by Colt of Eurabian Times and Steve Schippert (aka USMC_Vet) of ThreatsWatch.

Top Topics

• The Iraqi parliamentary elections are set to take place today and a mortar was launched into the Green Zone as polls opened. The day could be ugly or the day could be relatively quiet just as the last election. One thing is for sure, this is the last chance the insurgents and terrorists have to derail an elected government. With many insurgent Baathists warning Zarqawi and his ilk against attacking polls, it will be more difficult for al-Qaida in Iraq, Ansar al-Islam and the rest to mount successful major attacks as there will be more eyes (and eyes familiar with them) on their targets. Bill Roggio is in al-Anbar Province in Iraq and today is observing polling at Barwana and updating throughout the day. The location of the polling station he is at is poetic: “The poll site sits right where Zarqawi’s terrorists executed residents for not conforming to al-Qaeda’s perverse brand of Islamic law.“

• Detlev Mehlis delivered his second report to the UN Security Council and denounced Syria and stated that they were complicit in the Hariri assassination. Mehlis says that, at the current pace of Syrian cooperation, the investigation would take years. That, of course, is the whole point of Syria's 'full cooperation'. Suggested and approved was a six-month extension to the investigation, so don’t expect any action taken against Syria. Winner of the Battle of Words: UN/Mehlis. Winner of Concrete Gains (or loss avoidance/delay): Syria. But, with what appears to be a (too) bold move by Syria, will the long promised assassination of Gibran Tueni and expansion of the ‘Mehlis’ investigation to include his and the dozen or so other murders of anti-Syrian Lebanese figures usher I a swift end to those gains? Syria may have more than killed their gains on the very day the saw them. That said, as the Security Council is set Thursday to authorize the expanded scope, the usual suspects are at it again as Russia, China and Algeria are seeking to tone down language in the text that is critical of Syria.It’s business as usual at Turtle Bay.

• Another Israeli airstrike in Gaza targeting the Popular Resistance Committees killed at 4 terrorists, capping off a flurry of activity in a 24-hour period. Earlier, armed al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades members stormed election offices demanding jobs and claiming discrimination by other factions of Fatah in the latest Red-on-Red Fatah in-fighting. Whatever their grievances, they are feeding the Hamas ‘clean government’ platform at eating away at their own election efforts. Another stabbing murder of an Israeli security officer was averted as a Palestinian teenager attempted to stab a Border Police officer while trying to enter the IDF district offices in Jenin. In Nablus, a Palestinian was killed and several more wounded as the Israelis revisited familiar ground seeking out Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists. Terrorists fired AK-47’s at IDF soldiers from behind and among children throwing stones at the soldiers in another example of terrorists using children as shields, playing to the sensibilities of civilized men. If the Israelis hold fire, it’s free shots at the enemy. If they fire and hit the children, they can be used as propaganda in the western media and Palestinian streets. A Win-Win in the minds of animals.

Other Topics Today Include: ElBaradei (and no one else) wants security guarantees for Iran; Trouble for Fatah; Small sharp objects no longer a threat to airlines; Rudy Giuliani doesn’t run Harvard; Fox on Fences; USA Patriot Act renewal clears House; Horn of Africa going hot; Bangladesh nets a key terrorist; Britain’s set to award citizenship to a terrorist detainee and much more...

THE MIDDLE EAST & IRAN

• IAEA head and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei said that nuclear talks with Iran should include a U.S. security guarantee. But a US State Department spokesman said Iran will get no guarantees without first acting "like a responsible member of the international community." After both of those statements, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said any such guarantee would be condescending and unwelcome. It would not be condescending, it would be insane. ElBaradei wants to go the route taken with North Korea…also under his watch. Someone send him Pavlov's notes.

• Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged the Palestinians to continue their attacks on Israel. Khamenei has a special soft spot in his heart for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who Iran directly supports through the PIJ headquarters in Damascus.

• There has been a lot of reporting about Israel’s view that Iran could be nuclear capable in three months. Rather than a lot of links, there is a decent summation here.

• Just how serious is Mahmoud Abbas in his latest 'crackdown' on Islamic Jihad? People of power know people of power, especially in an area as small and confined as the Palestinian Territories. That his 'crackdown' has managed only to snare low-level PIJ terrorists has caused many to question his sincerity.

• Define 'trouble for Fatah': When your party has been successfully split by a candidate running from an Israeli prison serving 5 life sentences without a glimmer of hope of actually participating in the elected government. Meanwhile, quietly and unified, Hamas named their 62 election candidates.

• Security Watchtower offers a 'Final Analysis' of Egypt’s elections and how the Muslim Brotherhood managed to gain over 20% of the Egyptian parliament.

AMERICAN DOMESTIC SECURITY & THE AMERICAS

• Proof that Rudy Giuliani (remember?) does not run Harvard or Georgetown, the two esteemed universities gleefully accepted $20 million each from Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has taken on the issue and provides clarity that should not be necessary to deliver.

• Mexican President Vicente Fox says that a US-Mexico border wall would be 'disgraceful'. If that is the measure, what of the pervasive corruption and persistently ragged economy in Mexico that drives his citizens to the currently un-walled border? But alas, our border security is just that: Security. Security first, economics second.

• The House of Representatives voted to extend the Patriot Act, setting up a showdown in the Senate. Some members of the Senate will call for a shorter one-to-three month extension for ‘more time to debate [read defeat] the Patriot Act.

• The House also voted to support the supposed 'Ban on Torture'. The dissent that follows has nothing to do with torture. What the McCain Bill actually does is make for a nice appearance that will be received by none of those [Europe] it intends to impress, while it effectively codifies on a National level the Army field manual on interrogations (which, if followed, means torture is already banned). So whenever the Army/DoD changes any of the content, so changes federal law. The Constitution is such a silly document anyway...a 'living, breathing document', or so I've been told.

• A Lebanese-born Swede, Oussama Kassir, was arrested in the Czech Republic and has been charged in a plot to set up a terrorist training camp in Bly, Oregon. He chose Bly, Oregon because it “looks just like Afghanistan”.

• USATODAY.com - TSA chief Kip Hawley says bombs are the main threat to planes, not scissors. "It's not about scissors, it's about bombs...Small objects aren't going to enable a major terrorist attack." Really? The reason small, sharp objects (like, say, boxcutters for instance) are no longer a threat is because they are not allowed on the plane. Perhaps a few Marines can demonstrate for the TSA how a small pair of nail scissors can be employed effectively. By all means, look for bombs...but please...

AFRICA

• The UN is warning about potential war on the Horn of Africa as tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia continue to rise, making the prospects of renewed war between them more and more likely.

• Liberia says it is investigating reports of a coup plot as fans of the Liberian soccer star who lost the election have taken to the streets demanding 'justice'.

• Human Rights Watch charged that Sudan President Omar al-Bashir deliberately attacked civilians in Darfur. The group timed the statement with the UNSC's briefing from the ICC on atrocities in Darfur.

ASIA

• Sydney, Australia police are 'to get new powers' to combat the riots that have consumed the city for days.

• Few in China are even aware that twenty people were shot and killed by police in Dongzhou during protests over the government seizure of land.

• Ataur Rahman Sunny was arrested in Bangladesh and a cache of weapons was seized from his hideout. He is suspected to be the operations commander of Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen.

• First, there was ASEAN. Then came ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan and South Korea). Now, meet ASEAN Plus Three Plus Three.

EUROPE

• Britain can't bring itself to deny citizenship to an Australian-born Islamic terrorist captured in Afghanistan and held in Guantanamo Bay.

• Germany's Merkel called Ahmadinejad's holocaust remarks 'incredible' and said that it surely will effect the current negotiations with Iran on their nuclear program. (One would think their nuclear program would have been enough, but apparently it takes a holocaust-German reference to jump start the gravity of the situation.)

• Speaking of Germany, have you wondered What Gerhard Schroeder's been up to? He's got a fresh new job with some old friends.

• Chirac called foreign coverage of the Paris riots distorted, biased and excessive. Thousands of cars burning, buildings being Molatov cocktailed, etc. etc. etc. In the media's defense, might the violence itself been excessive?

THE GLOBAL WAR

• If you are not aware of it, another good weekly round-up can be found at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies with the Global Jihad Monitor. Even though most of what he covers is also covered here between the Monday and Thursday Winds of War reports, a resource is a resource and Jonathan Snow should be commended for his excellent work.

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