Monday's Winds of War: 9 Jan 2006

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Peace Like a River and Security Watchtower.

Top Topics

• Rohan Gunaratna, a security analyst at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) in Singapore is warning that it's only a matter of time before terror attacks target Bangkok, Thailand. A violent Islamic insurgency in the southern region of the country has claimed more than a thousand lives in the last two years. On Saturday, two Thai police officers were shot and killed in the Raman district of Yala, and five others were killed in two additional attacks in Yala.

• Russia and Iran remain engaged in discussions over uranium enrichment, something Iran has been unwilling to make concessions on in the past. IAEA inspectors have arrived in Iran to monitor Iran's resumption of nuclear fuel research, slated to restart today. Regime Change Iran has the latest news and developments.

• Following declarations that he was a traitor and his expulsion from the Syrian Ba'ath party, former Syrian Vice-President Abdul Halim Khaddam is calling for a revolt to oust President Bashar al Assad, who refuses a U.N. request to be interviewed, instead meeting with other Arab leaders to discuss the ongoing U.N. investigation.

Other topics today include: Western embassies in Amman closed; Anarchy in Gaza; Palestinian journalists threatened; Iranian agent arrested; Saudi authorities arrest two terrorists; Zarqawi audio tape; Air Marshal head resigns; CRS report on warrantless electronic surveillance; NSA debate; Ohio Imam to leave US; Padilla in court; Muslim leaders to support al-Arian; Discussions over Manas airbase; Shootout in Columbia; Russian operations in Daghestan; Pakistani religious schools; bombings in Afghanistan; attack on Afghan border checkpoint; Taliban reconciliations; Tamil Tigers blow up naval vessel; Singapore terror exercise; Abu Sayyaf kills two police; tourism drops in Bali; Chinese suicide bomber; Zarqawi supporters in Australia; Abu Hamza trial begins in Britain; British surveillance; Terrorism in sub-Sahara Africa; Taheri review on Syriana; Zawahiri tape; and more.

Iran & the Middle East

• Britain has closed their embassy in Jordan, over the threat of a terror attack. A statement from the Foreign Office said that "terrorists may be in the final stages of planning attacks against Westerners and places frequented by Westerners." The following day, Canada and Australia closed their embassies in Amman as well.

• A statement signed by the Fatah-linked al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades and Abu al-Rish Brigades; the Fatah Hawks; the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' military wing; the al-Quds Brigades, Islamic Jihad's armed wing; and the al-Nasir Salah al-Din Brigades, the armed wing of the Popular Resistance Committees, is calling for an end to the lawlessness that has plagued Gaza of late.

• Groups affiliated with Hamas and Fatah are believed to be behind a series of threats lately against Palestinian journalists in Gaza and the West Bank for their coverage of the recent lawlessness and anarchy in Palestinian controlled areas.

• An Arab Israeli has been arrested in London on suspicion of being an Iranian agent. According to the reports, Garais Garais was recruited by Iranian intelligence during the 1990s in Cyprus and was attempting to infiltrate Israel's political establishment through his membership in the Meretz-Yahad party.

• Saudi authorities have arrested two Saudis on suspicion of having connections with armed terrorists inside of the country. The two were stopped during a security search campaign in Al-Naqa neighborhood, Unayzah Governorate, Al-Qasim, northeast of Riyadh.

• In an audio tape posted on the internet on Sunday, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi says recent rocket attacks against Israel came at the order of Osama bin Laden. “The rocket firing at the ancestors of monkeys and pigs from the south of Lebanon was only the start of a blessed in-depth strike against the Zionist enemy (...). All that was on the instructions of the sheikh of the mujahedeen, Osama bin laden, may God preserve him,” said the voice attributed to the Jordanian extremist.

• Israel has decided to allow Palestinian candidates in the January 25th parliamentary elections to campaign in Jerusalem, a sign percieved by some that eastern Jerusalem residents may be able to participate in the election. Over the weekend, Hamas called upon Mahmoud Abbas to ensure that elections go forward as scheduled.

America Domestic Security & the America's

• The head of the Federal Air Marshal Service, Thomas Quinn, is leaving office, effective Feb. 3. Michelle Malkin is not too sorry to see him go.

• In one of its first official acts, the Homeland Security Department's new Preparedness Directorate issued preliminary guidelines last week for emergency responders to follow in the event of a radiological or nuclear attack.

• The Congressional Research Service released a report entitled Presidential Authority to Conduct Warrantless Electronic Surveillance to Gather Foreign Intelligence Information. The 44 page report (PDF) can be found here. President Bush argued for his authority in a radio address last month.

• There are a pair of analyses of the NSA wiretap issue generally from the lawyers at Volokh (they're constitutional but there may be a FISA argument against depending on circumstances) and Powerline (who addresses the Congressional Research Service report). Here at Winds, we like to caution people that just because a lawyer says something about the law doesn't make them right. If that was true, why would we need judges? However, these are serious analyses that critics of the Bush Administration cannot dismiss out of hand.

• Lawyer John Hinderaker of Powerline analyzes the legality of prosecuting the New York Times for revealing information about ongoing intelligence operations in the NSA wiretaps story. Again - here at Winds, we like to caution people that just because a lawyer says something about the law doesn't make them right. Still, this analysis presents a lot of the essential groundwork for the discussion.

• The leader of Ohio's biggest mosque has reached a deal with the federal government to leave the country. Imam Fawaz Damra could end up in Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Egypt or the Palestinian territories. Damra in 2004 was convicted of lying about ties to terrorist groups when he applied for U-S citizenship in 1994. His conviction was upheld in March, clearing the way for deportation.

• Jose Padilla appeared briefly in a Miami federal court Thursday evening to face criminal charges for the first time since being detained about four years ago as an "enemy combatant". His hearing lasted about five minutes, but it was a significant development in Padilla's case, representing his transfer from indefinite military detention to civilian custody. Last Friday a hearing on a plea and bail was postponed till Thursday.

• Jihad Watch links to news that some of the nation's prominent Muslim leaders will go to Tampa in support of Sami Al-Arian. A former professor at the University of South Florida, Al-Arian was acquitted of eight terrorism-related charges last month, including conspiracy to murder or maim people abroad. The jury deadlocked on nine other charges.

• Attorneys for Sami Al-Arian and a co-defendant on Friday revealed they are negotiating with federal prosecutors to avert a new trial.

• A Justice Department inspector general report found that problems with FBI forensic analysis and performance led to the mistaken arrest of an Oregon man as a suspect in the March 11, 2004, Madrid train bombings.

• The New York Times Magazine has a lengthy article on Salim Hamdan, a Yemeni captured in Afghanistan. He was once a driver for bin Laden, and has been charged with conspiracy to commit war crimes, murder and terrorism. He is being held at Guantanamo Bay.

• U.S. and Kyrgyz experts will soon start the second round of negotiations on terms of the deployment of an airbase of the international anti-terrorist coalition at Manas Airport of Bishkek, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Alikbek Dzhekshenkulov told the Kyrgyz media on Friday.

• This ISN article says Colombia’s strongest insurgent army (FARC) is more deadly than ever, and wants to prove it is still a political force that will not be controlled by the Colombian government. FARC destroyed another power tower last week.

• At least 12 Marxist rebels and two soldiers were killed on Friday in a gunfight over coca-growing land in southern Colombia that the government is trying to wrest from the cocaine-smuggling guerrillas, the army said. The battle took place in Meta province, where the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, killed 29 soldiers on a coca-eradication mission last week, an army spokesman said.

• Canada's Conservative Party Leader, Stephen Harper, said on Friday his government would set up a separate foreign spy agency to "independently counter threats before they reach Canada." The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), the country's existing civilian spy agency, operates on the domestic front, but has mounted specific operations in other countries.

• In Trinidad, Chief Magistrate Sherman McNicolls made up his mind Friday that the state made a good case against leader of the Jamaat al Muslimeen, Yasin Abu Bakr on five criminal charges against him. The charges came out of Bakr's Eid-ul-Fitr sermon last year at the Mucurapo Road, St James mosque. Bakr said he wanted to call witnesses for his defence.

Russia & South/Central Asia

• This article details how the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), an outlawed Islamist/terrorist group in Bangladesh, has amassed large amounts of money through Islamic NGOs.

• Here are the daily updates from the South Asia Terrorism Portal for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

• Russian security forces battled a group of armed militants allegedly linked with the Chechen separatist leadership in the southern republic of Daghestan for several days last week.

• A powerful blast has killed three people and completely destroyed a car workshop in South Russia’s Stavropol Territory. Initially police blamed the blast on a faulty gas cylinder, but experts say it was caused by a homemade explosive device, the RIA-Novosti news agency reported on Saturday.

• The latest issue of Chechnya Weekly from The Jamestown Foundation has five items, including one on Dokku Umarov, a less well-known Chechen guerilla leader.

• A college in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) can be a breeding ground for militants. The United States is trying to emphasize the importance of education in that area, in an effort to change mindsets there.

• A suicide bomber hurled himself on a moving police car in eastern Afghanistan on Saturday, wounding two policemen, an official said, calling it the latest in a spate of suicide attacks by Taliban guerrillas.

• Here is the CDI's Afghan Update for the month of December. The update is a comprehensive roundup of events in Afghanistan.

• Ten people died and 50 were wounded in a suicide car bomb attack in central Afghanistan last week during a visit by the US ambassador. NATO's military chief said that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda were not regrouping in Afghanistan despite more than a dozen suicide attacks there in the last three months.

• Assailants armed with rockets and assault rifles attacked a newly built checkpoint near the Afghan border in Pakistan before dawn Saturday, killing all eight security forces, officials said.

• An explosion at a Pakistani house near the Afghan border killed eight people Saturday, witnesses said. A tribal elder claimed U.S. helicopters had attacked, but the American military denied operating in the area.

• In Afghanistan, President Hamid Karzai said Sunday that a few hundred Taliban fighters have reconciled with the government and suggested Taliban leader Mullah Omar should "get in touch" if he wanted to talk peace.

• Suspected Taleban gunmen destroyed a coed primary school in the main southern Afghan city of Kandahar Sunday, first tying up two security guards before setting the buildings on fire, officials said.

• A student has been killed and at least one police officer injured in an explosion that authorities initially believed was a suicide bombing but are since treating as a remotely detonated bomb attack in Afghanistan's eastern city of Jalalabad, RFE/RL's Afghan Service reported.

• The Sindh home department’s indecision has been delaying for more than four months the proceedings of the trial of an accused in the Daniel Pearl murder case.

• Last week bomb blasts hit the tourist town of Pokhara in Nepal, following a series of overnight explosions in the Himalayan kingdom, which came just hours after Maoist rebels called off a four-month truce.

• The Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) of Mumbai police on Friday arrested three suspected Laskar-e-Toiba militants from Nagpada area of South Mumbai, ATS sources said. "It is too premature to say that they are linked to the recent shoot out in Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore", they added.

• Evidence has emerged that poor communication and bureaucratic delays might have resulted in the squandering of an opportunity to pre-empt the December 28, 2005 terrorist attack on the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.

• Suspected Tamil Tiger rebels have blown up a Sri Lankan navy gunboat with 15 sailors aboard in a suicide attack that inflicted the single biggest loss on the military since a truce was declared in 2002, the defence ministry said. Sri Lanka's navy says it has banned night fishing off the north-east port of Trincomalee to search for bodies of sailors killed in the ambush.

Far East & Southeast Asia

• Singapore staged a mock large-scale terror attack exercise on its transit systems, involving thousands of emergency response personnel and centering around four subway stations.

• Abu Sayyaf gunmen ambushed two pro-government militiamen near the town of Tuburan in the southern Philippines, killing both with multiple gun shot wounds.

• In the wake of terror attacks in Bali in 2002 and 2005, western tourists are staying clear of the volatile island that accounts for fourth-fifths of Indonesia's tourism revenue.

• A farmer angry over a court ruling in the northwest Chinese province of Gansu carried out a suicide bombing in the courthouse, killing five.

• The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is expressing optimism over peace-talks scheduled with the Filipino government later this month in Malaysia.

• Australian authorities continue to investigate supporters of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi living in Australia, who are donating money to the group and encouraging local Muslims to join the insurgency.

Europe

• Anti-terror police units in Britain have detained a man on suspicion of terrorist activities after conducting a raid on a home in Sheffield tied to a terror investigation abroad. The following day he was released.

• Spanish authorities are preparing to question a Moroccan recently arrested for murder, for his possible involvement in the March 2004 bombings in Madrid.

• Today in London, radical cleric Abu Hamza al-Masri's trial begins and he faces "16 charges of stirring up racial hatred and urging the killing of non-Muslims."

• British authorities will soon have the capability to track millions of vehicles on major roads across the nation through the widespread use of surveillance cameras. According to national coordinator John Dean, "It will revolutionize policing," with the capability of determining within seconds if a vehicle is stolen, if the driver has car insurance, or is involved in terror investigations.

• Dragomir Abazovic, wanted for war crimes in Bosnia during the 1990s, was wounded in a shootout with EU troops and his wife killed during a raid in Sarajevo.

• A Spanish General was placed under house arrest after suggesting that military intervention might be necessary to squash autonomy demands in the northeast region of Catalonia.

Africa

• The International Crisis Group has released a report entitled Sudan: Saving Peace in the East. The report says the low-intensity conflict between the government and the Eastern Front risks becoming a major new war with disastrous humanitarian consequences.

• A post by Douglas Farah at The Counterrorism Blog looks at the presence of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. Farah gives examples from Kenya, and the Ghanaian press.

• An increase in piracy off the Indian Ocean coast of Somalia has made these waters the most dangerous for pirate activities in the world. Shipping companies say the area has overtaken those traditionally plagued by piracy such as the Straits of Malacca in south east Asia.

• The Sudanese army has deployed along the border with Ethiopia. Governor of Al-Gadarif State Abdelrahman al-Khedir said the deployment of the armed forces was ensure stability on the border. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea remain high.

• The Nigerian Government has ordered the Inspector-General of Police to deploy in the Niger River Delta a special squad to mount surveillance on power generation and transmission stations in the region to avoid any threats of vandalisation to the Power Holding Company Nigeria in the region. One of the prominent militant groups in the Delta is the NDPVF. The group's leader Dokubo Asari is a convert to Islam, and though the group is not exclusively Islamic, Asari has said he admires Osama bin Laden. Asari is currently on trial, which may be a factor in the increased violence in the delta.

• An African Union peacekeeper in Sudan's troubled Darfur region has died and 10 others were injured in an attack by unknown gunmen. A Sudan army spokesman said the force was attacked either by Chad-backed rebels or official Chadian forces.

The Global War

• The January 2006 issue of Air Force Magazine contains excerpts of comments made by Lt. Gen. Walter E. Buchanan III, commander of USAF’s 9th Air Force and US Central Command Air Forces, discussing air operations over Iraq and Afghanistan.

• The Winter 2005 issue of NATO Review is devoted to the Middle East, and examines ways NATO might be involved in improving relations between the Arab world and the West.

• Japan has refused to join Germany, Brazil and India in seeking permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council, instead opting to work within framework that will not be opposed by the United States.

• Amir Taheri speaks out about the movie Syriana, saying "there is a market for self-loathing in the US today and many, including the producers of 'Syriana', are determined to cash in on it."

• Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri released a new videotape declaring victory over the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan.

• Lawyers for Salah Abdul Rasool Al Blooshi, A Bahraini at Guantanamo Bay, have questioned why he is still in captivity, claiming he is not accused of being involved in violence or supporting any terrorist organisation. They say they do not understand why he was not released along with three other Bahrainis towards the end of last year.

• ThreatsWatch has a new graphic presentation on Syria titled "Who is Next?"

• The latest on Russian and Iranian relations.

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