Results At a Glance

• Overall results, most up to date from Elections Canada. Overall voter turnout was 65%. An improvement, but still below Iraq's turnout levels. Perhaps one day we can equal their efforts. On the other hand, we beat the USA's turnout levels handily.

• Overall results, visual color-coded at a glance from CBC

• For National Post/ Canwest coverage re: the election.

• For political junkies, this ad may have been the one that put the conservatives over the top. It's "the head shake seen around the country."

Canada's January 2006 Election: Overall Take

So, what's my overall take?

First, understand just how regional Canada is when it votes. The Bloc is just an extreme manifestation, but over the last 20 years the Liberals have had difficulty winning any seats West of Ontario, and over the last decade the Conservatives have had a hard time winning any seats in Ontario and eastward. The Bloc Quebecois doesn't even run candidates outside Quebec, of course, and so the Liberal majority has been built on seats in the 2 largest provinces, plus some seats on the East Coast and the odd seat out west.

You can imagine what years and years of this does to a country's politics.

Now consider that the AdScam scandal wasn't just about stealing $100 million. In Quebec, it was about stealing $100 million in public funds - to be used as a war chest against the province's most popular federal party. Unsurprisingly, their level of outrage far surpassed the rest of the country's. The Liberal Party dropped like a stone to 3rd place in the provincial popular vote (20%) and 13 seats, while the Conservative Party got 25% support and won 10 seats. The scandal also cost the Liberals hard in Ontario, where they lost 20 seats (15 went to Conservatives, 5 to the NDP socialists). Those were the big electoral shifts.

Andrew Coyne predicted a tectonic shift, a 'minor earthquake.' Not even close. Overall, watching a lot of races scroll by with numbers, the Conservatives won but they won a lot of fairly close race, even in races with good candidates. Not what I'd call a general Conservative tide - a note that may be sounded by clueless US media in the aftermath. As the excellent blog Peaktalk points out, coverage of other countries (like the Netherlands, also badly covered) is often driven by prejudices, stereotypes, and projection of US political dramas elsewhere.

Frankly, Canada's conservative party is a generation away from being a consistently sustainable political force - to become one, they're going to have to develop their base of supportive organizations, talk radio, plugging into the think-tanks, etc. Even the USA's Democratic Party, often the butt of TV jokes from all sides these days, is in better shape that Canada's conservatives when you really look at the lay of the land.

You may hear talk about the blogosphere's effect. We have some fine bloggers here, and they're beginning to get noticed. Beyond Minnesotan Ed Morrissey of Captain's Qarters, however, the blogs weren't a big factor yet. They could become one, however, and should be cultivated very carefully by the Conservative Party and its allies. Are we there yet? No.

Conservative Opportunities

The Conservative Party sits on an unstable coalition, and many of the other parties are philosophically opposed to greater freedom, smaller government, et. al. On the other hand, the Canadian people do not want another election any time soon and will punish those who bring one about. so there is a sort of 'balance of terror' for a while. I do not see any formal coalition, either - the Liberals are out for obvious reasons, the NDP socialists would be ridiculous, and alliance with the Bloc is anathema though some limited areas for cooperation may exist.

For this session, therefore, the lay of the land says be bland and don't perturb Canada's overall course much. Especially as rising oil prices (Canada has an 'oil curse,' too...) will make the economy seem good. But there are opportunities.

The Conservatives can survive and thrive with just 3 basic principles:

1. Give Canadians stability in government - do not rock the boat on anything that isn't an overwhelming political plus, and be willing to do only a few new things fairly well.
2. Pick the wedge issues to fight about very carefully.
3. Work to change the game underneath.

So...

Cut the hated national GST sales tax/VAT as promised (yes, it's on top of provincial state sales taxes), and dare the other parties to oppose it. This is key. Succeed there, fulfil that pledge which the Liberals made before more than once and did nothing about, and that will be a huge win.

Launch sweeping investigations of Liberal corruption that extend beyond just Gomery. That party was systematically corrupt, and has used its position in government to impair investigations. Get in, turbocharge and broaden the investigations instead, and be able to say to Canadians "we cleaned up the mess."

Under the banner of reforming the system, take a fast, hard wrecking ball to many of the mechanisms and entrenched appointments that have been built to give (and will continue to give) the Liberals unfair advantages in the system. Running those engines until the Liberals come back and pick them up again is historically a mistake, and has also left Canada with an unresponsive quasi-PRI style political system that really does need a shakeup. The scandals have created a major housecleaning opportunity. Use it agressively and early, especially in terms of cleaning out entrenched appointments in the bureaucracy. Then get on to governing. After AdScam, nobody will pay attention to any screams of outrage from the bureaucrats involved, the liberals, or their media allies.

Kate's "Morning In Canada" post at the CBC's blogger election roundtable offers one example of what I'm talking about:

"So in addition to the list of priorities that Harper will be taking on - the accountability act, opening the books to forensic audits, enacting planned tax cuts - the single most important change he can make to restore balance to Canadian democracy is to begin breaking down the stranglehold of government and the Liberal apparatchik on the communications industry by eliminating or radically restricting the authority of the CRTC, restoring political balance on the board of the CBC and moving the network to a model of market self-sufficiency, and closing the generous pasture land of government funded "think tanks" where deposed and unemployed Liberals retire to lobby the government at government expense - and inform Canadians of our "Canadian values."

Do those things, and just those things, and three years later a majority is possible. Anything on top of that should be ancillary stuff that's low-risk and puts opponents in a difficult position if they oppose it. Or, use appointments powers that must be exercised anyway (Kate says Martin left 3,000 federal appointment positions open) to change directions in suitable ways. For instance...

Consider finding a quid pro quo one-time, one-issue deal with the Bloc, then if possible go after the Canadian Wheat Board. Or, of you'd rather avoid a fight, clean house massively inside it. Appoint people to be in charge who will simply not prosecute farmers who do not sell their wheat through the state-owned corporation. This will make the Conservatives popular with farmers out west, and they'll feel that an implicit promise has been kept. Meanwhile, having the Liberals or NDP stand up and demand... what? Prosecution of farmers for selling their wheat? Yeah, that will get them lots of traction.

Finally, re: Martin's successor...

If they're smart, the conservatives will maintain former New Brunswick Premier (Governor) Frank McKenna as their Washington ambassador. He may want to run for the Liberal Party leadership, but resigning from that ambassadorship will be a negative for him. He's probably the most effective potential opponent, and he does a pretty good job in Washington where he has established the contacts he needs to be effective. So praise him to the skies, and state that you'd never think of firing him. If he wants to run anyway, have him pay a certain political price for an uncertain prospect. He may decide Washington is just fine.

Postscript

America-hating, Israel-hating (Jew hating?) wingnut Carolyn Parrish, who supports Hezbollah, says "I hate those bastards [Americans]," etc. is no more. Kicked out of the Liberal caucus, she did not even run this time. Looks like the well-earned end of her political career.