F-22 to Japan? Is that for real? Seems as though someone is getting a major case of budgetary indigestion. If the USAF (or whoever) is really that anxious to increase the production run, they ought to crank out 50-60 more and give them to Australia and Canada before selling any to Japan. Generosity towards Canberra and Ottowa couldn't hurt, but selling to Japan might. Espionage will always be a problem, but Aum Shinrikyo has proven adept at penetrating Japanese organizations.

Joe, thanks for the link! Much appreciated.

Cheers,

StrategyUnit

Rory, follow the link. Japan is quite serious about wanting F-22s, and the article explains why that makes perfect sense. The JASDF is critical to Japan as an island nation whose main focus is defense, and they can and will find the money if approved.

I'll add that Canada would have little use for F-22s, and giving them such weapons would confer no advantages (and many drawbacks) over simply equipping 2 American squadrons and basing them in the northern USA.

Australia could genuinely use F-22s, which are far more appropriate to its needs than the F-35 Joint Strike Fighters it has signed up to buy. But the flyaway on an F-35 will be $50-60 million, while similar costs for the F-22 are around $130 million. Australia can't afford that on its defense budget, and it truly does have better places to put the money if you're looking at all the things it needs to uphold its security zone. Something that's in US interests.

What might be potentially interesting would be to produce the fighters and lease them to Australia for a defined period of 10 years or so on preferential terms that approximate amortized F-35 costs, with an option to buy at the end. Australia may or may not go for that, however, because Indonesia is looking at buying 12 Russian submarines (probably Kilos) over the next decade. If they do, the Aussies (with a sub fleet of just six subs) may want lower-end fighters they can keep, while using the rest of that budget for Boeing's 737-based P-8A MMA maritime patrol aircraft instead.

The Raptor's export market is really quite limited given political/security considerations, budgetary realities, and existing plans.

• Australia would need a huge boost to its willingness to spend on defense for this to happen, and the boost would have to focus on fears of China.

• Britain might like the idea of F-22s, but it's already a very major Eurofighter partner and has spent a lot of cash on them, with lots of British companies depending on that platform's health. The F-35B JSFs, meanwhile, is needed on carriers and the F-22 can't perform that mission. So the only way they get Raptors is if they decide to add F-22s on top of their existing fighter force. Very unlikely.

• You wouldn't sell F-22s to any other western European nation, and the New Europe east couldn't possibly afford them.

• There's probably too much lingering bitterness re: US-Israeli defense relations at this point, despite the agreement they signed that more or less gives the USA a veto over all Israeli arms sales regardless of whether or not the technology is American. That may bend if USAF generals see a real prospect of the Raptor line shutting down, but for now Israel is on track to receive F-35A JSFs. If offered F-22s and able to pay for them with American military assistance dollars, the Israelis would be very likely to say yes. Not just for the extreme air superiority value, but for their deep strike anti-SAM potential.

• India might be given the F-35 if it lobbied hard, but not the F-22. Maybe a decade hence that could be possible, if the alliance really takes off and has a cementing event. Will that happen? Will the F-22 still be in production? Highly uncertain.