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February 27, 2006Monday's Winds of War: 27 Feb 2006by WoW Team Monday at February 27, 2006 5:31 AM
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Peace Like a River and Security Watchtower. Top Topics
Other topics today include: IDF clashes with Hamas; Iran claims deal with Russia; al Qaeda in Yemen had inside help; Bahrain-Turkey counterterrorism agreement; Lebanon rebukes US request for Hezbollah extradition; IDF Operation Northern Lights in Nablus; Abbas may quit; Hamas makes token overtures; more on the UAE port deal; nuclear power plant defense plan; terror arrests in Ohio; southern California Muslims cooperate with authorities; Russian-Iranian discussions; Russian counterterrorism legislation; Georgia denies rumors of facilitating possible strike on Iran; fighting in Kashmir; Taliban attacks; riot in Afghan prison; Coup attempt in Philippines; Australian guilty of aiding al Qaeda; hate crime in Paris; bombing in Spain; Violence in Somalia; Counterterrorism training in Mali; Nigeria racked by violence; US citizen charged with terrorism in Uganda; and more. Iran & the Middle East
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Hamas Peace Watch from Low Earth Orbit
Excerpt: [source, source] Israeli soldiers shot dead two Palestinian terrorists planting bombs along the Israeli border yesterday, one of them the...
Comments
Another great one.
#2 from Tom Holsinger at 4:20 pm on Feb 27, 2006
The Samarra Mosque bombing struck me as an inside job too - there was too little structural damage. This made me immediately suspect Iran's mullah regime was responsible. And I also suspected it was part, together with oil export attacks elsewhere, of an overall battlefield preparation effort by the mullahs concerning their perception of an impending U.S. attack on Iran. I emailed this to various people. One disagreed. It is interesting to see here that others feel as I do. Personally, I don't believe any Shiites were involved with this. One person who has served in Iraq described it to me as these Shiite holy sites are like their Vaticans. True, no nation does more to support terrorism than Iran, but Iran is Shiite. I can't see Iran being a part of destroying a holy site. Iranian Shiites revere these sites, too. The Iranian mullahs would be risking a significant backlash if it got out they were involved. The Samarra Mosque bombing struck me as an inside job too - there was too little structural damage.
#5 from Tester at 6:01 pm on Feb 27, 2006
#6 from tblubird at 6:03 pm on Feb 27, 2006
You may want to check out ThreatsWatch for a post on the Saudi oil facilty bombing. There is a link between one of the attackers (who was killed) and the Saudi prince's most trusted advisor. And although the attack failed, antique media doesn't seem to note that. Whose surprised?
#7 from Tom Holsinger at 6:38 pm on Feb 27, 2006
I now feel that every possibility that Iran and Al Qaeda are working closely together merits close attention. I suspect that Iran has just become Al Qaeda's state sponsor bigtime - training bases, funding, electronic intelligence support, diplomatic passports and all. They don't have to agree on everything - just on enough. The alliance of a nuclear-armed terrorist-supporting state and Al Qaeda is our worst nightmare. I repeat part of my Case For Invading Iran:"... Iran’s mullahs no longer seem to feel a need to wait for final processing of fissionables, and fabrication of those into nuclear weapons, before their nuclear deterrent against the United States is ready. Iran’s mullahs will use nuclear weapons as a shield against foreign attack while they more openly support terrorism elsewhere. American acquiescence in Iranian nuclear weapons will lose the war on terror by ceding terrorists a “privileged sanctuary” in Iran. We’ll have let terrorists have in Iran what we invaded Iraq to stop. The invasion of Iraq will have been a complete waste of effort, and our dead in Iraq will have died in vain. ... If the United States does not forcibly prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons, every country in the area will know to a moral certainty that they cannot rely on the United States for protection against Iranian nuclear attack, or Iranian nuclear blackmail in support of domestic opposition to the generally shaky regimes of the Middle East. American prestige and influence there will collapse. If we won’t protect ourselves by pre-emption, we can’t be relied on to protect anyone else."Iran's mullahs will, among other things, use their nuclear weapons to intimidate their neighbors. The Saudis are easily intimidated and eager to pay off those who frighten them. This can be leveraged into easing off on the Saud regime's crackdown on Al Qaeda's funding. "This illustrates another al Qaeda weakness; money. The blowback from the Iraqi invasion, particularly the terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, encouraged the Saudi government to come down really hard on the Islamic charities, and deep-pocket Arabs, who had been providing so much money to al Qaeda. This went largely unnoticed in the Western media, but al Qaeda has been going broke over the past few years. With less cash coming out of Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf States, more Islamic terrorists were seen operating on the cheap."
#8 from Mark Buehner at 7:35 pm on Feb 27, 2006
I dont doubt the Church would bomb the Vatican if it served their interests somehow, particularly if no-one would get hurt. The one thing the religious big-wigs understand is that the brick and mortar they spend their time in and money keeping from falling over arent the mystical places followers believe. I have to imagine the Mullahs secretly feel the same way. Religious leaders have been known to forment war and genocide for their greater goals. Bombing their own building doesnt seem implausible.
#9 from PD Shaw at 7:48 pm on Feb 27, 2006
Jeff: I agree that its counter-intuitive, but read these sentences carefully from the above link:
If this is true, there would almost have to be Shi'ite involvement. Who else would take the extra time and extra risk to make a point while preserving the holy remains? As far as I know, the only people who revere these Imams are (twelver) Shiites, everyone else in the world would appear to be ambivalent to hostile. Also, some of the end-time prophesies indicate that the Mahdi will return after Iraq is enveloped in fear and there is death and destruction of buildings. It is not difficult to imagine that there might be some Shiites that might be open to suggestion (programmed) to the notion that destroying the shrine, but not those entombed, may hasten a desirable outcome. Of course, it could be a double game to make it appear that Iranians were behind it. But that would be more plausible to me if there was a widespread campaign in Iraq to blame Iran -- the blame seems to have been directed at the outset towards either the West or al Qaeda.
#10 from SPQR at 7:59 pm on Feb 27, 2006
Tester has spammed his link to three blogs that I know of.
#11 from Tom Holsinger at 8:18 pm on Feb 27, 2006
Jeff, I agree with PD Shaw. Austin Bay noticed this at once and asked Bill Gross, a retired reserve engineer colonel, about it – Bill said it would have taken at least several hours to lay the charges, which likely means it was an inside job. http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=953 SPQR, Comment #5 is not spam - it's perfectly on topic here. If it's on topic elsewhere too, good for him.
#13 from Davebo at 10:30 pm on Feb 27, 2006
PD, I know I may be asking far too much from the American Spectator but... "Reports indicate".. Reports from whom? I've read lots of reports on the bombing. From folks who are, ya know, actually in Iraq. But this is the first I've heard of "in for 48 hours".
#14 from SPQR at 10:52 pm on Feb 27, 2006
My apologies, Joe.
#15 from Tom Holsinger at 11:01 pm on Feb 27, 2006
Davebo, Then check out the link in my No. 11, which I'll repeat: I've known Bill Gross and Austin Bay for 15 years. Bill commanded a reserve engineer battalion and a reserve engineer brigade. He was assistant City Engineer for the City of Dallas, and is definitely a go-to guy for engineering and demolition matters. The mosque damage said to all of us that the perpetrators were trying hard not to do major structural damage. They wanted only to blow the dome facade off. Doing only that is much more difficult than bringing the whole roof down with no regard for the building's safety. And it requires time - undisturbed, free to operate, time. At least several hours and perhaps a day or more. IMO this makes Al Qaeda, or any Sunni terrorist group, at least unlikely as a suspect. Unless you believe, as Michael Ledeen has said repeatedly, that Iran's mullah regime and Sunni terrorists like Al Qaeda have worked together closely for a long time - say since before the first WTC bombing. I also suggest you read Michael Rubin's piece in today's Wall Street Journal - it's behind a firewall, but here's an on-line excerpt:"While journalists concentrate on the daily blood, Iraqis describe a larger pattern which U.S. officials have failed to acknowledge let alone address: Step-by-step, Iranian authorities are replicating in Iraq the strategy which allowed Hezbollah to take over southern Lebanon in the 1980s. The playbook -- military, economic and information operation -- is almost identical."
#16 from PD Shaw at 11:19 pm on Feb 27, 2006
Iraq the Model fingers the bombing on Wahabist due to their historical hostilities to tombs, but with the support of one or more neighboring countries. Most interestingly, he also accuses Iraqi Shi'ites, including Sistani, of ginning up the subsequent crisis as part of a power play. Here
#17 from Tom Holsinger at 12:24 am on Mar 01, 2006
Insider suspects in the Samarra mosque bombing have been arrested. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L28695866.htm Four guarding Iraqi shrine are suspects in attack BAGHDAD, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Iraq's national security adviser said on Tuesday four guards protecting the Shi'ite shrine bombed last week were being held as suspects in the attack that pushed the country to the brink of civil war. "We have two strong leads on their involvement but I don't like to discuss them because it will jeopardise the investigation," Mowaffaq al-Rubaie told Reuters, adding six other people had been arrested over the dawn blast, blamed on al Qaeda militants seeking to sow sectarian violence in Iraq. Minister of State for National Security Abdul Karim al-Enazy said questions remained over why the assailants, who spent long hours planting the bomb, did not kill any of the eight guards, who were found tied up but unharmed. "It was not the style of those who do such attacks, to keep the guards alive, why didn't they kill them, this is the question? It was weird," he said. The bloodless attack on the Golden Mosque of Samarra, one of Shi'ite Islam's holiest sites, sparked tit-for-tat reprisals involving Shi'ite militias on minority Sunnis that killed hundreds despite calls for calm from religious and political leaders. Enazy, a Shi'ite, said he had sent a report to the Shi'ite-led government two weeks before the Samarra bomb warning that militants were planning attacks against Shi'ite shrines during a Shi'ite religious festival. Government sources said Samarra was mentioned in the report. Enazy himself said his report referred to Kerbala. "I sent a report about Kerbala, we had information that there might be some terrorist attacks on the 10th of Muharam targeting Shi'ite shrines but I was talking about Kerbala." An official source said the government had not taken the warning seriously. "He sent a report saying they have received information of attacks being prepared against Shi'ite shrines. This tells you about the incompetence of the government," the source said. Enazy said the attackers had all night to plant the bomb after they had tied up the guards. "We suspect some of the guards. One of them is a relative of a terrorist and another was an ex-Baathist commander, we are still investigating," he said. Iraqi and U.S. officials have blamed the Samarra bomb on al Qaeda, saying it wants to wreck the project for democracy; al Qaeda accused Shi'ites of carrying it out as an excuse for reprisals on Sunnis. On Tuesday, two Sunni militant groups, in statements posted on the Internet, also blamed the Shi'ites for the attack in Samarra, which is a Sunni town. The Army of Ansar al-Sunna said forces affiliated to the government carried out the bombing and blamed it on Sunnis. The 1920 Revolution Brigades said the bombing helped the Shi'ite government deflect public U.S. pressure to make way for Sunnis in coalition of national unity."
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