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February 27, 2006

Monday's Winds of War: 27 Feb 2006

by WoW Team Monday at February 27, 2006 5:31 AM

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Monday's Winds of War briefings are given by Peace Like a River and Security Watchtower.

Top Topics

Other topics today include: IDF clashes with Hamas; Iran claims deal with Russia; al Qaeda in Yemen had inside help; Bahrain-Turkey counterterrorism agreement; Lebanon rebukes US request for Hezbollah extradition; IDF Operation Northern Lights in Nablus; Abbas may quit; Hamas makes token overtures; more on the UAE port deal; nuclear power plant defense plan; terror arrests in Ohio; southern California Muslims cooperate with authorities; Russian-Iranian discussions; Russian counterterrorism legislation; Georgia denies rumors of facilitating possible strike on Iran; fighting in Kashmir; Taliban attacks; riot in Afghan prison; Coup attempt in Philippines; Australian guilty of aiding al Qaeda; hate crime in Paris; bombing in Spain; Violence in Somalia; Counterterrorism training in Mali; Nigeria racked by violence; US citizen charged with terrorism in Uganda; and more.

Iran & the Middle East

  • Israeli soldiers shot dead two Palestinian terrorists planting bombs along the Israeli border yesterday, one of them the son of Hamas co-founder and senior leader Abdul Fattah Dukhan, a newly-elected member of the Palestinian parliament.
  • International nuclear inspectors are expected to report next week that Iran has started producing enriched uranium on a very small scale, indicating that it is striving to solve technological problems in its nuclear program, European officials said Friday. Only a month after Iran defied Europe and the International Atomic Energy Agency and declared it would restart what it termed research on enrichment, it has put 10 centrifuges into operation at the vast uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.
  • Bahrain and Turkey will sign an anti-terror agreement next month that will reinforce their pledge to combat terrorism at international levels and pledge cooperation on combating drug trafficking.
  • Abu Daoud first acknowledged having a role in the Munich operation in a 1999 book, Palestine: from Jerusalem to Munich. Today he maintains the 1972 attacks were worth it because it brought the plight of the Palestinians attention, and excuses it by considering the Israeli athletes, as military reservists, legitimate targets.
  • Abu Abir, spokesman for several Palestinian groups gave an interview where he threatened Israel and suggested "if you [west] are so committed to an Israeli state then why don't you help the Jews to build their state in the United States or elsewhere in the West.
  • United States Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs David Welch focused on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Saturday as sole recipient of future financial assistance - but failed to say if aid would continue the flow for the Palestinian Authority. Addressing reporters following a meeting with Abbas at his Ramallah headquarters, Welch said the two discussed the future of US- Palestinian relations and financial support.
  • The top US diplomat for international counterterrorism coordination, Henry Crumpton, paid a surprise visit on Saturday to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, where Egyptian security forces have launch-ed massive sweeps in recent months searching for militants. Reports indicate that Crumpton's visit is to review security arrangements in the region.
  • In remarks to be broadcast on the British TV channel on Sunday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said if he was no longer able to pursue his peacemaking agenda he would quit. "I will not continue sitting in this place, against and in spite of my convictions," he is quoted as saying. "If I can do something I will continue, otherwise I won't."
  • In an interview with the Washington Post, Esmail Haniya, the Palestinian prime minister-designate, said Hamas is ready to recognize Israel if it gives the Palestinian people their full rights and a state in lands occupied since 1967, including the West Bank and East Jerusalem. David Makovsky, director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the interview was "filled with contradictions, including putting old wine in new bottles."
  • The head of the UN investigation into the killing of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri has met Syria's foreign minister in Damascus, Syria's news agency says. Talks between Serge Brammertz and Walid al-Muallim on "the means to advance the mission of the commission of inquiry" yielded "positive results", Sana said. The inquiry has implicated Syrian and Lebanese officials in the killing. A UN Security Council resolution has threatened further action unless Syria co-operates fully with the probe.
  • Fatah terrorist Sami Abed Al Khader Hassan Akilan was apprehended by security forces in PA-controlled Jericho Saturday. Akilan, who is 26 and from the Shahti slums in Gaza, is a member of the Palestinian Authority's security forces, yet was involved in planning terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians.

America Domestic Security & the Americas

  • The debate over giving the UAE control of terminal operations in six US ports intensifed this past week. "The change of ownership at a terminal will not impact or affect the security of our nation's ports," said Leah Yoon, spokeswoman for the Customs and Border Protection, said. "Port employees go through extensive background and security checks." But calls to block the sale raise questions about port security, experts said. And some industry watchers worry that high-tech devices and strategies, such as biometrics, radio frequency identification (RFID) and radiation sensor technology, being installed at ports could fall into the wrong hands.
  • Reviews by U.S. intelligence agencies supported Dubai Ports World's purchase of the British company running some terminals at six U.S. ports, and the assessments were made available to the Treasury Department-run interagency committee that approved the deal, senior Bush administration officials said.
  • The Treasury Dept released a statement defending the conduct of the committee that made the decision on the ports, and explains how the decision was made. A post at Threats Watch highlights a Dept of Homeland Security press release on some aspects of the UAE-owned Dubai Ports World acquisition.
  • The United Arab Emirates has become an aggressive ally in the war on terror, even capturing a top terrorist bomber and earning the seven-state federation a spot on Al Qaeda's hit list, U.S. intelligence experts say. Asked at a Senate briefing yesterday whether the UAE had refused a single U.S. counterterrorism request since 9/11, the deputies at the Defense, Homeland Security and Treasury departments all said no.
  • The Department of Homeland Security would receive the biggest boost in technology spending among top-level federal departments under the president's $2.8 trillion budget proposal for 2007. If Congress ultimately approves the president's request, which he made public earlier this month, the department's slice of the information technology allotment would jump more than 21 percent, to about $4.4 billion.
  • A government defense plan for nuclear power plants assumes an attack would come from less than half the number of Sept. 11 hijackers and they wouldn't be armed with rocket-propelled grenades or other weapons often used by terrorists overseas. Such assumptions, say critics of the largely classified security document, could make plants vulnerable to a terrorist takeover even though the industry has pumped more than $1.2 billion into defenses at its 64 reactor sites in 31 states since the al-Qaida attacks in 2001.
  • Sami Al-Arian, the fired university professor who faces a possible retrial on terrorism-related charges, is confident he will be found innocent and says he is open to a plea deal if it affords him "victory." Even if he wins his second round, as he likes to refer to it, the 48-year-old Kuwaiti-born Palestinian is likely to be deported to the Middle East.
  • Federal prosecutors seeking more prison time for an Algerian terrorist argued that the sentencing judge wildly abused his discretion, and they cited his rebukes of the Bush administration as clues to a possible motive. U.S. Attorney John McKay said U.S. District Judge John C. Coughenour should have deferred to prosecutors' wishes for a 35-year sentence for Ahmed Ressam, instead of giving him a 22-year term.
  • The arrests this week of three men in Ohio on terrorism-related charges involving troops in Iraq followed raids by federal agents on a Toledo-based Islamic charity accused of providing funds to Hamas. Mohammad Zaki Amawi, Marwan Othman el-Hindi and Wassim Mazloum were named in a five-count indictment on charges of conspiracy to kill, kidnap, maim or injure people in a foreign country; conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals; and harboring or concealing terrorists.
  • Sabri Benkahla was acquitted in March 2004 of being a member of a "Virginia jihad network." Now Benkahla has been indicted again, this time on charges that he lied when he told a grand jury that he had never attended a terrorist training camp. Benkahla was arraigned Wednesday in U.S. District Court in Alexandria, Va., on perjury and obstruction of justice counts. The Falls Church, Va., man pleaded not guilty.
  • Muslim leaders from Southern California and Sheriff Lee Baca launched an initiative Wednesday to increase cooperation in the fight against terrorism and expand the role of American Muslims in denouncing extremist groups like al-Qaida. The Muslim-American Homeland Security Congress, with representation from nearly every prominent Muslim organization in Southern California, will share information on possible terrorist threats, create a youth council to reach Muslims who might feel alienated in American society and give religious leaders a collective platform to condemn terrorist acts.
  • Colombia agreed on Friday to suspend capture orders for two leaders of the country's second-largest Marxist guerrilla group in an effort to build trust in peace talks hosted by Cuba. The Cuban-inspired National Liberation Army, or ELN, which was founded in 1964 by radical students and Roman Catholic priests, said the provisional legal status given to its commanders, Antonio Garcia and Ramiro Vargas, cleared the way for formal negotiations.
  • Leftist rebels killed nine people Saturday in an attack on a passenger bus that defied a guerrilla-imposed traffic ban in southern Colombia, authorities said. Insurgents with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, fired several shots at the bus on a remote highway near Puerto Rico, 190 miles southwest of Bogota, causing the driver to lose control and slam into a wall, said Col. Jose Angel Mendoza, police chief of Caqueta state.

Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia

  • Russia wants to complete building a nuclear power station in Iran as soon as possible, the country's top nuclear official said on Saturday, the Itar-Tass news agency reported. Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russia's atomic energy agency Rosatom, said during a visit to Tehran that the civilian nuclear plant at Bushehr in Iran would be launched as fast as possible. "We don't see any political obstacles to completing Bushehr and we are interested in it (the station) being launched in the swiftest possible period," Kiriyenko said, the Itar-Tass news agency reported.
  • Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russia's Federal Atomic Energy Agency, said after talks with Iranian officials on Saturday that resolving questions about Tehran's nuclear program "is absolutely realistic." He added that Iran has the right to a peaceful nuclear program, but suggested it must act to assure the world that it is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons. According to some reports, the two had reached a deal on Sunday in principle.
  • Russia's lower house of parliament, the state Duma, passed by a 423-1 vote new anti-terrorism legislation that empowers Russian secret services to tap telephone conversations and control electronic communications in areas where counter-terrorism operations are carried out and entitles air defense forces to shoot down hijacked planes to prevent attacks on strategic facilities or public places. The bill now moves on to the upper house.
  • A major weapons and ammunition cache was discovered in the Tukui-Mekteb settlement of the Neftekumsk district of Russia’s Stavropol territory, the place where a gang of militants put up a fierce fight back on February 10th. A suspected accomplice of the gunmen was detained.
  • Georgia’s president has refuted recent reports that Georgia might allow the U.S. to use its territories to launch an attack on Iran, and expressed his resentment at the rumors. “The issue is simply out of the question,” Mikhail Saakashvili told the Ekho Moskvy radio station in an interview Sunday. Georgia’s admission to NATO does not mean that the alliance will be able to place its military bases on territory of the country, Saakashvili added. “Talks of this are mere speculation,” he said.

Afghanistan & Southern Asia

  • Sri Lankan government negotiators and Tamil Tiger rebels agreed Thursday to resume their cease-fire talks in April and restrain the level of violence, Norwegian mediator Erik Solheim said. Solheim said the two sides agreed during two days of talks that they would meet again April 19-21 in Geneva in the effort to salvage their tattered cease-fire. The opposing sides agreed to take "all necessary measures to ensure that there will be no intimidation, acts of violence, abductions or killings," said a joint statement read by Solheim.
  • Three persons, including two Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists, were arrested in Doda, Rajouri and Poonch districts of Jammu and Kashmir on Friday. Security forces have also recovered a large quantity of arms and ammunition from their possession.
  • Troops shot dead three Islamic rebels in a gunbattle and two soldiers and a civilian were wounded in a car bomb blast in Kashmir, the army said, a day after India's premier met leaders of the Himalayan state to discuss peace efforts. The explosion happened when an army convoy was on the move near the summer capital of Srinagar, said army spokesman Vijay Batra on Sunday.
  • A cleric who offered $1 million and a car for the death of those cartoonists who drew blasphemous caricatures said yesterday that suicide bombers had volunteered to "kill the blasphemers". Yousaf Qureshi, the prayer leader at the 300-year-old Mohabat Khan mosque in Peshawar, announced the reward.
  • Seven Islamic militants and two Indian security personnel were killed in violence in Kashmir ahead of talks called by India’s premier in the disputed region, police said on Thursday. Three militants and an Indian soldier were killed during a gunbattle in the southern district of Udhampur late Wednesday, a police spokesman said in Srinagar, the main city in Indian-administered Kashmir.
  • A strike called by Muslim separatists to protest the fatal shooting of four civilians, allegedly by the army, crippled life in Indian
    Kashmir, police and residents said, as another eight people died in two gunbattles in the restive region. Most shops, banks and offices in the summer capital Srinagar were closed by the strike, which was called by both moderate and hardline factions of the region's separatist alliance.
  • US President George W. Bush leaves on a maiden visit to South Asia this week determined to clinch a landmark nuclear deal with India and prod Pakistan to move more rapidly against Al-Qaeda leaders believed to be hiding in the country. "In this vital region, the stakes are high and the opportunities are unprecedented," Bush said ahead of Tuesday's departure to what is home to the world's most bitter nuclear rivals, the most dreaded terrorists, the largest democracy and a rapidly growing region and vast market.
  • Bangladesh Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia said on Sunday her government was bringing Islamist militants to justice in the wake of bomb attacks that have killed at least 30 people including two judges and wounded 150. Police in Bangladesh have detained around 900 suspects since last August following the attacks blamed on Islamic militants.
  • A local official was shot dead by unknown armed men Thursday morning in the troubled southern province of Helmand in Afghanistan, a local official said.
  • Suspected Taliban militants ambushed an Afghan army convoy in a southern province, killing four soldiers and wounding two by firing a rocket that destroyed one vehicle, an official said.
  • Afghan President Hamid Karzai has handed intelligence to Pakistan that indicates Mullah Mohammed Omar, supreme leader of the Taliban regime ousted by US-led forces, and key associates are hiding in Pakistan, a senior Afghan official said.
  • Hundreds of inmates, including convicted al-Qaida and Taliban militants, waving knives and wielding clubs made from furniture overpowered guards and took control of parts of a high-security prison in Afghanistan's capital, officials said Sunday. Police and soldiers surrounded the Policharki Prison as government officials tried to negotiate through loudspeakers with the inmates. Their demands were not known.
  • An article by Ali A. Jalali in the Spring 2006 issue of Parameters, entitled The Future of Afghanistan, focuses on "ways of fostering the long-term development of governance, security, and economic growth in the country."
  • About 25,000 people — some chanting "Death to America!" — rallied against the Prophet Muhammad caricatures in Pakistan's largest city Sunday, but police prevented a rally in the eastern city of Lahore by arresting the religious ringleader and detaining scores of supporters. In Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and economic hub, where the provincial government has not banned such rallies, protesters also chanted "Down with the blasphemer!" and "End diplomatic ties with European countries!" No violence was reported.
  • Assailants fired rockets Sunday at the home of a provincial Cabinet in Pakistan's restive southwestern Baluchistan province, killing a guest and wounding eight other people, police said.
  • Suspected Islamic militants have shot dead two policemen and injured another two in an attack on a patrol in a remote tribal town near the Afghan border, security officials said on Sunday.
  • Nepal's opposition parties announced a new round of nationwide protests to restore democracy, piling fresh pressure on King Gyanendra who seized power a year ago. The announcement of the protest programme was a riposte to King Gyanendra's olive branch to the political parties last weekend in which he asked them to take part in talks and push forward "the stalled democratic process."

Far East & Southeast Asia

  • Philippine police arrested an opposition congressman and sealed a newspaper office Saturday after President Gloria Arroyo launched emergency measures to foil an alleged coup plot. Congressman Crispin Beltran, a leader of the leftist Bayan Muna (Nation First) coalition, was arrested in his home just outside Manila, spokesmen for the coalition said. Arroyo declared a national emergency Friday, a move that former president Fidel Ramos called "overkill". A Marine brigade chief linked to the plot is calling for the support of the people.
  • A senior member of Australia's government has suggested Muslims who do not uphold the country's values should be stripped of their citizenship. Remarks by Finance Minister Peter Costello, at a conference in Sydney, have sparked anger among leaders of Australia's Islamic community who insist his comments are divisive and inflammatory.
  • An Australian man has been found guilty of intentionally receiving funds from al-Qaeda, becoming the first person to be convicted under the terrorist funding laws. Joseph Terrence Thomas, 32, was found guilty by a jury in the Victorian Supreme Court sitting in Melbourne, AAP reported. He was also found guilty of possessing a false passport and not guilty on two charges of providing resources to al-Qaeda.

Europe

  • The Dutch foreign minister has said Serbian officials have told him war crimes suspect General Ratko Mladic might be ill and seeking to surrender. Bernard Bot, who visited Belgrade this week, said authorities told him Gen Mladic might be trying to negotiate his surrender with his own entourage. The former Bosnian Serb commander faces war crimes charges, including genocide.
  • Scotland Yard's top anti-terror official today called for radical changes to the way terrorism is investigated and prosecuted. The deputy assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan police, Peter Clarke, called for a new national structure to police terrorism that goes beyond the current plans to merge a number of forces.
  • The Moroccan hacker known as Yanis was arrested in Metz by the Paris PJ. Yanis is accused of having defaced several French important websites (university of Strasbourg and Toulouse, website of the city of Lyon etc..), but his activity as defacer is far more complex: Zone-h, the independent observatory of cyber-crime, have monitored nearly 3000 notifications of intrusions in the last month related to the Prophet Mohammed digital Ummah protest (about 710 are by Yanis) while in his whole illegal “career” he compromised 1161 websites.
  • Irish nationalists clashed with police on Saturday during demonstrations against a march in Dublin by Northern Irish Protestants remembering those killed by nationalist guerrillas. The protesters hurled bricks and fireworks at police and tore down barriers meant to separate the nationalists from the marchers, a Reuters witness said. Police had to close Dublin's main shopping street and shops brought down their shutters.
  • In France, the murder of Ilan Halimi is seen as a wake-up call. French police initially described the brutal kidnapping and killing as a crime-for-cash perpetrated by a gang calling itself "The Barbarians." It routinely used young women to lure unsuspecting victims. But in ensuing days, family members, Jewish organizations and a French magistrate labeled the killing a hate crime, directed against Halimi because of his religion. Many have cited the torture and reports that the gang's suspected leader was later arrested in a Muslim neighborhood in Ivory Coast, in West Africa.
  • A small incendiary device exploded at a bank cash machine in the city of Vitoria in Spain's Basque Country on Saturday night, injuring two people, police said on Sunday. Police said they did not know who was responsible, but the tactic is similar to previous attacks by armed Basque separatist group ETA or youth groups that support the outlawed organization.

Africa

  • A recent upsurge in violence in Somalia's capital has focused attention anew on the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the chaotic Horn of Africa state. The violence had killed at least 22 people and wounded more than 140 since Saturday. Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, said by the United States to be linked to al-Qaida, is prominent among the fundamentalists increasingly projecting themselves as an alternative to the numerous armed groups running the clan-based fiefdoms that comprise Somalia (see also Chronology of Somalia's collapse).
  • When a terrorist group affiliated with al Qaeda took 32 Europeans hostage in 2003, it took them to Mali. After a reported ransom of $5 million was paid, the hostages were freed here in Gao. The leader of the terrorist group, Ammari Saifi, evaded capture in the lawless expanses of the Sahara for about a year before finally getting caught in Chad in early 2004. US Special Forces are in Mali training Mali soldiers.
  • The cycle of tit-for-tat sectarian violence in Nigeria has pushed the death toll in the last week well beyond 100, making it the hardest-hit country so far in the cartoon controversy. Reports indicated that the riots have spread to Enugu, Kotangora, Minna, Lokoja, even as there were renewed tension in Kaduna, Asaba, Onitsha, Bauchi, Kano and Maiduguri.
  • Amnesty International is probing reports that street clashes in Benghazi spread to two other Libyan towns in the east earlier this week. At least 11 people were killed by government police and more than 60 others wounded on Friday February 17 as a protest initially staged by the authorities against the Danish cartoons, turned against Gaddafi’s rule.
  • Ugandan police said on Saturday a U.S. man found with guns in his bedroom days before this week's national election had been charged with terrorism. Peter Waldron, 59, pleaded not guilty at a preliminary court hearing this week alongside three fellow suspects from Uganda and another three from neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, police said. Waldron, who police earlier said had been planning to start a political party based on Christian principles, was sent back to custody after the hearing on Wednesday and ordered to appear at the High Court in two weeks.
  • Sudanese President Omer Al-Bashir affirmed that the government will not accept transfer of the mission of the African Union (AU) forces in Darfur to international troops. Addressing the committee of the Comprehensive Conference of Darfur People on Saturday, President Al-Bashir accused foreign circles of targeting Darfur and Sudan.

The Global War

  • An article in the March 2006 issue of National Defense Magazine reports on a recent Special Ops forum on the topic of WMDs. Officials at the special operations conference acknowledged the importance of the counter-IED project, but they warned military leaders not to downplay the threats posed by the possibility of a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapon falling into the hands of terrorists.
  • The National Defense University will hold a symposium in March entitled Implementing the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review. The symposium "seeks to illuminate and promote informed discussion of the issues the QDR addressed, its major recommendations, and the challenges ahead in adapting the U.S. defense strategy and posture."
  • Dafna Hochman has an article in the Spring 2006 issue of Parameters entitled Rehabilitating a Rogue: Libya’s WMD Reversal and Lessons for US Policy. The article argues "the Libyan reversal suggests that US policymakers should be mindful to appeal to a diverse array of possible approaches as a necessary, though not sufficient, first step."

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Comments
#1 from Joe Katzman at 10:52 am on Feb 27, 2006

Another great one.

#2 from Tom Holsinger at 4:20 pm on Feb 27, 2006

The Samarra Mosque bombing struck me as an inside job too - there was too little structural damage. This made me immediately suspect Iran's mullah regime was responsible.

And I also suspected it was part, together with oil export attacks elsewhere, of an overall battlefield preparation effort by the mullahs concerning their perception of an impending U.S. attack on Iran.

I emailed this to various people. One disagreed. It is interesting to see here that others feel as I do.

#3 from Jeff at 4:30 pm on Feb 27, 2006

Personally, I don't believe any Shiites were involved with this. One person who has served in Iraq described it to me as these Shiite holy sites are like their Vaticans.

True, no nation does more to support terrorism than Iran, but Iran is Shiite. I can't see Iran being a part of destroying a holy site. Iranian Shiites revere these sites, too.

The Iranian mullahs would be risking a significant backlash if it got out they were involved.

#4 from Nimer at 5:14 pm on Feb 27, 2006

The Samarra Mosque bombing struck me as an inside job too - there was too little structural damage.

#5 from Tester at 6:01 pm on Feb 27, 2006
#6 from tblubird at 6:03 pm on Feb 27, 2006

You may want to check out ThreatsWatch for a post on the Saudi oil facilty bombing. There is a link between one of the attackers (who was killed) and the Saudi prince's most trusted advisor. And although the attack failed, antique media doesn't seem to note that. Whose surprised?

#7 from Tom Holsinger at 6:38 pm on Feb 27, 2006

I now feel that every possibility that Iran and Al Qaeda are working closely together merits close attention. I suspect that Iran has just become Al Qaeda's state sponsor bigtime - training bases, funding, electronic intelligence support, diplomatic passports and all.

They don't have to agree on everything - just on enough.

The alliance of a nuclear-armed terrorist-supporting state and Al Qaeda is our worst nightmare. I repeat part of my Case For Invading Iran:
"... Iran’s mullahs no longer seem to feel a need to wait for final processing of fissionables, and fabrication of those into nuclear weapons, before their nuclear deterrent against the United States is ready.
Iran’s mullahs will use nuclear weapons as a shield against foreign attack while they more openly support terrorism elsewhere. American acquiescence in Iranian nuclear weapons will lose the war on terror by ceding terrorists a “privileged sanctuary” in Iran. We’ll have let terrorists have in Iran what we invaded Iraq to stop. The invasion of Iraq will have been a complete waste of effort, and our dead in Iraq will have died in vain.
... If the United States does not forcibly prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons, every country in the area will know to a moral certainty that they cannot rely on the United States for protection against Iranian nuclear attack, or Iranian nuclear blackmail in support of domestic opposition to the generally shaky regimes of the Middle East. American prestige and influence there will collapse. If we won’t protect ourselves by pre-emption, we can’t be relied on to protect anyone else."
Iran's mullahs will, among other things, use their nuclear weapons to intimidate their neighbors. The Saudis are easily intimidated and eager to pay off those who frighten them. This can be leveraged into easing off on the Saud regime's crackdown on Al Qaeda's funding.
"This illustrates another al Qaeda weakness; money. The blowback from the Iraqi invasion, particularly the terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, encouraged the Saudi government to come down really hard on the Islamic charities, and deep-pocket Arabs, who had been providing so much money to al Qaeda. This went largely unnoticed in the Western media, but al Qaeda has been going broke over the past few years. With less cash coming out of Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf States, more Islamic terrorists were seen operating on the cheap."
#8 from Mark Buehner at 7:35 pm on Feb 27, 2006

I dont doubt the Church would bomb the Vatican if it served their interests somehow, particularly if no-one would get hurt. The one thing the religious big-wigs understand is that the brick and mortar they spend their time in and money keeping from falling over arent the mystical places followers believe. I have to imagine the Mullahs secretly feel the same way. Religious leaders have been known to forment war and genocide for their greater goals. Bombing their own building doesnt seem implausible.

#9 from PD Shaw at 7:48 pm on Feb 27, 2006

Jeff:

I agree that its counter-intuitive, but read these sentences carefully from the above link:

Reports indicate that the Samarra bombing was done by a demolitions team that was inside the mosque up to 48 hours before the detonation. The explosives were arranged to collapse the dome while leaving the critical tombs of the Eleventh and Tenth Imams unharmed . . ..

Source

If this is true, there would almost have to be Shi'ite involvement. Who else would take the extra time and extra risk to make a point while preserving the holy remains? As far as I know, the only people who revere these Imams are (twelver) Shiites, everyone else in the world would appear to be ambivalent to hostile.

Also, some of the end-time prophesies indicate that the Mahdi will return after Iraq is enveloped in fear and there is death and destruction of buildings. It is not difficult to imagine that there might be some Shiites that might be open to suggestion (programmed) to the notion that destroying the shrine, but not those entombed, may hasten a desirable outcome.

Of course, it could be a double game to make it appear that Iranians were behind it. But that would be more plausible to me if there was a widespread campaign in Iraq to blame Iran -- the blame seems to have been directed at the outset towards either the West or al Qaeda.

#10 from SPQR at 7:59 pm on Feb 27, 2006

Tester has spammed his link to three blogs that I know of.

#11 from Tom Holsinger at 8:18 pm on Feb 27, 2006

Jeff,

I agree with PD Shaw. Austin Bay noticed this at once and asked Bill Gross, a retired reserve engineer colonel, about it – Bill said it would have taken at least several hours to lay the charges, which likely means it was an inside job.

http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=953

#12 from Joe Katzman at 10:26 pm on Feb 27, 2006

SPQR,

Comment #5 is not spam - it's perfectly on topic here. If it's on topic elsewhere too, good for him.

#13 from Davebo at 10:30 pm on Feb 27, 2006

PD,

I know I may be asking far too much from the American Spectator but...

"Reports indicate"..

Reports from whom?

I've read lots of reports on the bombing. From folks who are, ya know, actually in Iraq.

But this is the first I've heard of "in for 48 hours".

#14 from SPQR at 10:52 pm on Feb 27, 2006

My apologies, Joe.

#15 from Tom Holsinger at 11:01 pm on Feb 27, 2006

Davebo,

Then check out the link in my No. 11, which I'll repeat:
http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=953

I've known Bill Gross and Austin Bay for 15 years. Bill commanded a reserve engineer battalion and a reserve engineer brigade. He was assistant City Engineer for the City of Dallas, and is definitely a go-to guy for engineering and demolition matters.

The mosque damage said to all of us that the perpetrators were trying hard not to do major structural damage. They wanted only to blow the dome facade off. Doing only that is much more difficult than bringing the whole roof down with no regard for the building's safety.

And it requires time - undisturbed, free to operate, time. At least several hours and perhaps a day or more.

IMO this makes Al Qaeda, or any Sunni terrorist group, at least unlikely as a suspect. Unless you believe, as Michael Ledeen has said repeatedly, that Iran's mullah regime and Sunni terrorists like Al Qaeda have worked together closely for a long time - say since before the first WTC bombing.

I also suggest you read Michael Rubin's piece in today's Wall Street Journal - it's behind a firewall, but here's an on-line excerpt:
"While journalists concentrate on the daily blood, Iraqis describe a larger pattern which U.S. officials have failed to acknowledge let alone address: Step-by-step, Iranian authorities are replicating in Iraq the strategy which allowed Hezbollah to take over southern Lebanon in the 1980s. The playbook -- military, economic and information operation -- is almost identical."
#16 from PD Shaw at 11:19 pm on Feb 27, 2006

Iraq the Model fingers the bombing on Wahabist due to their historical hostilities to tombs, but with the support of one or more neighboring countries. Most interestingly, he also accuses Iraqi Shi'ites, including Sistani, of ginning up the subsequent crisis as part of a power play. Here

#17 from Tom Holsinger at 12:24 am on Mar 01, 2006

Insider suspects in the Samarra mosque bombing have been arrested.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L28695866.htm

Four guarding Iraqi shrine are suspects in attack
28 Feb 2006 21:37:14 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Mariam Karouny

BAGHDAD, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Iraq's national security adviser said on Tuesday four guards protecting the Shi'ite shrine bombed last week were being held as suspects in the attack that pushed the country to the brink of civil war.

"We have two strong leads on their involvement but I don't like to discuss them because it will jeopardise the investigation," Mowaffaq al-Rubaie told Reuters, adding six other people had been arrested over the dawn blast, blamed on al Qaeda militants seeking to sow sectarian violence in Iraq.

Minister of State for National Security Abdul Karim al-Enazy said questions remained over why the assailants, who spent long hours planting the bomb, did not kill any of the eight guards, who were found tied up but unharmed.

"It was not the style of those who do such attacks, to keep the guards alive, why didn't they kill them, this is the question? It was weird," he said.

The bloodless attack on the Golden Mosque of Samarra, one of Shi'ite Islam's holiest sites, sparked tit-for-tat reprisals involving Shi'ite militias on minority Sunnis that killed hundreds despite calls for calm from religious and political leaders.

Enazy, a Shi'ite, said he had sent a report to the Shi'ite-led government two weeks before the Samarra bomb warning that militants were planning attacks against Shi'ite shrines during a Shi'ite religious festival.

Government sources said Samarra was mentioned in the report. Enazy himself said his report referred to Kerbala.

"I sent a report about Kerbala, we had information that there might be some terrorist attacks on the 10th of Muharam targeting Shi'ite shrines but I was talking about Kerbala."

An official source said the government had not taken the warning seriously.

"He sent a report saying they have received information of attacks being prepared against Shi'ite shrines. This tells you about the incompetence of the government," the source said.

Enazy said the attackers had all night to plant the bomb after they had tied up the guards. "We suspect some of the guards. One of them is a relative of a terrorist and another was an ex-Baathist commander, we are still investigating," he said.

Iraqi and U.S. officials have blamed the Samarra bomb on al Qaeda, saying it wants to wreck the project for democracy; al Qaeda accused Shi'ites of carrying it out as an excuse for reprisals on Sunnis.

On Tuesday, two Sunni militant groups, in statements posted on the Internet, also blamed the Shi'ites for the attack in Samarra, which is a Sunni town.

The Army of Ansar al-Sunna said forces affiliated to the government carried out the bombing and blamed it on Sunnis.

The 1920 Revolution Brigades said the bombing helped the Shi'ite government deflect public U.S. pressure to make way for Sunnis in coalition of national unity."

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