Yet another follow-up to our "America's Asian Alliances" round-up from the other day. In "China's Stresses, Goals, Military Buildups... and Futures," we took a comprehensive look at the sociocultural trends, geo-political realities, and military efforts that were shaping China's relationships with the world. In the Geo-Political section, I wrote:
"China's big geopolitical weakness is, of course, geography. Though it will be dependent on naval lines of supply for many of the its future resources, including food, China is ringed by satellite powers that are well positioned to choke that access."
I give you STRATFOR's Feb. 15/06 piece, "China: Facing a Multinational Maritime Morass":
"The United States has invited the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Russia and India to participate in discussions on how to deal best with the threat of maritime terrorism in the Strait of Malacca, The Times of India reported Feb. 15. That China was left off the guest list indicates that a Russo-Indo-U.S. axis is forming to contain Beijing."
Well, not by itself; when we add a few more pieces to this puzzle, however, STRATFOR's thesis starts to look pretty solid.
Love Me Two Times: Russia and the USA
We'll start with the Russian end. Russia wants China's attention diverted away from its PLA army and PLAAF air force, and into a PLAN (Peoples' Liberation Army Navy) that can't seriously threaten it. Plus, there's business to be had. Here's how geopolitics really works. STRATFOR:
"These ship sightings [of a Chinese ship, by a Russian TU-142M "Bear," with Russian help, near the Cape of Good Hope] and the accompanying ballyhoo from New Delhi were a win-win situation for Russia and India. India was able to remind China who controls the Indian Ocean and point out to the United States what a valuable naval ally it is. Russia benefited by keeping China's military buildup in the spotlight, thereby taking U.S. pressure off of Moscow. Russia also benefits economically from a naval arms race between China and India, as it is supplying both sides with very expensive submarines, naval aircraft, helicopters, surface ships and aircraft carriers. Stoking those flames is good for business. Likewise, it keeps China from spending money on its army, which could be used to one day wrest control of Russia's Far East from Moscow."
The USA looks at China's naval buildup with concern, and the recent 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review basically amounts to the Pentagon's "make sure China won't dare challenge us" wish list. A recent alliance with India is strengthening economic and military ties, significant weapons deals are under discussion, and there's a major state visit ongoing as we speak.
Allied Japan is another naval power casting a concerned eye on China, seeing industrial possibilities in India, and building up its own naval and missile defenses.
My Eyes Have Seen You: India and China
India is not pleased by the "string of pearls" strategy it sees as China puts down bases in the Maldives off its coast; in Gwadar, Pakistan; and in Burma/Myanmar - the latter country possibly including air PLAAF bases. China's skyrocketing defense spending is raising concern. Nor does it like China's meddling among all of its neighbours, and economic games - vid. the February 6, 2006 India-Defence article "China's Strategy of Containing India."
Don't even get them started on China and Pakistan generally.
In reaction, India is polite but not foolish. There's nothing wrong with increasing trade, having exchanges, and making friendly noises in public. At the same time, preparations are being made. India is beginning to upgrade its air force power projection capabilities, embarked on a program to buy advanced new submarines, and recently set up a base in Madagascar. Which could be even more useful later, because naval exapnsion is on India's agenda.
There will also be economic moves, of course, just as China's strategy to contain India is partly economic. And so the pieces are being set - but for what?
Most of that answer will depend on China.
Break On Through To the Other Side: The View From China
Recall China's 4 key geo-political imperatives from Winds' article. They are simple, but difficult to execute. Especially since pursuing some of these goals gets in the way of others. The abridged version is:
- Avoid a situation in which hostile coalitions box it in [geographically].
- Become a regionally dominant force that is unquestionably #1 in East Asia, and able to keep any other Great Power out of its sphere of influence.
- Secure access to key resources.
- If you can't control it, at least have the leverage to choke it.
So China modernizes its defense industry, works to "Finalndize" South Korea, suborns Taiwan in prepration for invasion, tempts Indonesia with submarines as something to keep the others occupied, and is setting up a strong economic sphere in Asia on lopsided terms. A major oil and gas deal has been signed with Iran, friendly discussions have begun with the Saudis, and it's drawing closer to oil-rich Nigeria (a corruption match made in heaven if ever there was one).
These moves aren't nearly as strong as they could be, because China's power projection capabilities and defense inducements are still limited. That situation will change over the next decade or two. China is a dictatorship with a growing economy, which means a lot of ready cash and far fewer social demands. That generally means vast military spending, and so far it matches the pattern. The question is whether even a Chinese dictatorship flush with cash for arms can remain "strong enough at home and respected enough abroad" to overcome the forces it is raising against it.
The more China works to try to break out of its box, the more concerns and reactions it raises among other powers with the individual and commbined ability to push it back in.
Yet Sun Tzu would be the first to remind us that there are options beyond the pur military dimension. A savvy set of dictators can expand China's role abroad considerably while always ensuring that the local balance of forces makes an overt clash unwise.
Land Ho! The African Arena
With its oil, minerals, and potential for importing expatriates, Africa will be the most likely stage for such efforts by far. China's trong Cold War influence there isn't generally known, as it was based on secret agents and economic work. Africa is not terra nova to Beijing - it's a dangerous garden that the Chinese have played in for a very long time. China's needs ensure that its involvement in Africa is headed in one direction only - up.
While all this is going on, a substantial Desi community lives in South and East Africa and thrives when allowed to. The sea lanes between the Straits of Malacca and East Africa will be a priority concern for India, and these communities already anchor one end. As India builds up its navy and power projection capabilities, those diaspora communities can be expected to play a role of their own in sharping political and economic events.
Inn addition to its base in Madagascar, note India's new naval and military relationship with Mozambique - which includes maritime patrolling of the Mozambique coast as well as armaments technology and help in "rehabilitation and building of military infrastructure," according to am Indian defence ministry spokesman in New Delhi. We will see more of this in future.
Africans may benefit from this simmering global rivalry, or they may once again be direct and indirect victims. And the Chinese themselves may change as the game plays out. Right now, however, STRATFOR writes:
"The net result is that Russia and the United States are both courting India's burgeoning navy to the same purpose: containing China. Luckily for both Moscow and Washington, India is more than willing to set sail against China."
That may be so. But it is only the beginning of a long game. One that will run in parallel to - and sometimes intertwined with - The Long War against Islamofascism.
One that will feature plenty of twists and turns all its own.
UPDATE: Brian Dunn has an addendum that should appeal to any Canadian: don't just look at the naval stuff, get them shoveling snow. Some aspects of his proposal are impractical, but he is thinking strategically. It would certainly suck China into the Central Asian Islamist campaign Dan Darling has described, and create another source of friction in the global war Islamists are waging.
I don't think that a superpower confrontation with China is inevitable nor do I long for such a confrontation (as some including some within the Department of Defense clearly do).
Yes, China is absolutely in Africa. From drilling oil in Ethiopia to assisting Liberia with roads and food production, millions in aid to Niger, building roads and railways in Angola, a definite presence in Nigeira, and on and on.
China is spreading a lot of money around Africa. Hopefully we won't get caught napping.
Dave, there's only one small problem with this idea.
What if China's intentions are not, in fact, friendly?
Japan is coming swiftly to this conclusion. India is coming to this conclusion, quietly but it's there. Australia would rather not think about it, but at some point must. Vietnam is more than slightly concerned.
Ino, it didn't have to be this way. But China has made its choices. And a confrontation is not inevitable. Unless the Chinese decide it is. And America telling China to behave so folks will like them more may be perfectly true... but will get less than nowhere.
What will make China behave in a manner that is less likely to provoke coalitions against it? Maybe nothing. Maybe it's just a combination of culture, needs, and dictatorship M.O. that can't be broken.
Or maybe it can... and if so, it's going to take a growing realization that what it's doing is having consequences, and it doesn't like those consequences. Or maybe China will change inside for more fundamental reasons, and the whole landscape of this discussion would change.
But you get the China you have, not the one you wish you had. In international diplomacy, any encouragement to be nice needs to be backed by a sufficiently solid and potentially painful enough reason why not being nice would be a bad idea.
"What if China's intentions are not, in fact, friendly?"
"China's intentions" are not fixed. The Chinese government will do what is in its best interests. The question is what the US can do to shape the environment such that they see behaving like good members of the international community as being in their interests.
China has a definite problem finding enough technically proficient people for any kind of power projection. China's armed forces are not a suitable career track for that group.
Yes, Matt, that's my point exactly. I think there are things we can do. For example, being open about what we're interested in and understanding of their concerns. Not being openly provocative would be a help (that's how the Chinese have interpreted the QDR).
We need to be careful not to exaggerate the threat that China poses to us. From a military standpoint China is a long way from being a threat. And, as Tom Holsinger points out above, that may not change for cultural reasons. Some are deep cultural reasons that won't be too responsive to change.
And then there's the demographics.
Also, I think we need to remain aware of American soft power. I don't think that too many people want what the Chinese leadership wants at this point. In fact I believe that we're continuing to win in the soft power area WRT China. I believe that more Chinese want what we want than non-Chinese want what the Chinese leadership wants.
Soft power, not backed up by hard power = no power. I am unconcerned with what China claims to be "provocative" - and after watching the trumped-up anti-Japan riots recently, Dave, you should be too. This is a regime whose entire lifeblood is based on lies. The regime that still, to this day, backs North Korea and is the reason Kim is still in power. And how's that accounting for Tibet and Tienanmen going?
Take nothing they say at face value. Look at the agenda and the power interest, because there isn't anything else. "Provocative" = "in the way of our plans."
And the only want that matters here is the Chinese leadership's, until and unless China's political system changes completely. And if it does, this whole issue may go away. But it hasn't, yet, and unless China changes, nations around it are going to want options in case things get any worse.
As they should.
In short, we don't have to convince China of shit. THEY need to start convincing a whole bunch of other nations of THEIR good intentions. Or find the ring growing tighter.
I'm not sure the QDR's posture is the best force structure for America because of America's needs - but for heaven's sakes, the opinion of China's dictators should determine US defense procurement policy?!
There's a level of naivete in these comments that I've never seen from you.
Joe,
China has more potential rivals than us. We're the center of our universe but not China's. They have to worry about interference with their sea lines of communication/trade by countries other than the United States. In particular they don't want to be reliant solely upon our good will in such instances.
Consider that China's govt. may be preparing for the Hobbesian world that will emerge with the rampant nuclear proliferation which China's govt. has been promoting so energetically over the past 15 years as a means of destroying American hegemony. IMO their policy errs, perhaps fatally, but they do seem to be consistent here.
"For example, being open about what we're interested in and understanding of their concerns. Not being openly provocative would be a help (that's how the Chinese have interpreted the QDR)."
If we can just express our feelings in an open, nonjudgmental way, im sure we can come to an enlightened understanding of each others dreams and aspirations. China: what are some of the things America does that make you feel unloved? Can you express that to your trading partner, but in way expressing your needs, and not America's shortcomings? American: what are some of the strategies you can use to spice up your relationship? How can China make you feel sexy again? Relationships are about compromise. For instance, maybe on Mondays America can get its condemnation of Irans nuclear program through the Security Council without having an argument about how much time they spend in the office. And on Wednesday China can crush a group of dissidents with mobile infantry and heavy artillery, before launching a cruise missile barrage against Taiwan, while America rubs her back.
Remember, anger is nothing more than an outward expression of hurt, fear and frustration. Dr. Phil said that.
China is, quite obviously, a dictatorship, yet it seems that every year it is being forced, more and more, to listen to its people. I am not saying democratization is occurring there, but I do see the government having to respond more to the demands of its people in order to retain its power. If one buys into the thesis that democracies are less likely to wage war (and I do), this increased "listening" by the Chinese government bodes well for the world.
CLB... I agree in general terms.
As discussed in our scenarios article, however, there are circumstances (like a major bump in the economic road) wherein this "listening" dynamic could spawn extremely ill-advised military moves by China if it is still a dictatorship.
Countries in which elections mean something can relieve their frustration by voting out those responsible. Countries in which elections are a staged farce have 2 options: revolution or a diversionary external war. and to avoid the first option, dictators will often choose the second.
For countries like the USA or India, having measures in place to deal with such contingencies is only the most elementary prudence.
Once those prudent measures have been taken, using diplomacy and other measures (like fostering cooperation between American churches and Chinese Christian missionaries abroad) in order to encourage China to play a more positive role begins to make sense.
Joe-Uncle Sam is apparently yanking hard on that string of pearls; we're trying to take over Gwadar from the Chinese. Vietnam is also building a new deepwater military port that, given the Bush administration's recent rapprochement with Vietnam, may end up primarily as a berth for American ships.
The Vietnamese port inquestion is, ironically, Haiphong. They want Cam Ranh to become more of a civilian port.
It also has the effect of moving Vietnam's main military port much closer to the Chinese border, as you note. This would make it a potentially useful stopover for supplies but a very poor place to berth anything. It seems, to say the least, a very odd move to Vietnam. They don't have $500M to throw around casually, either... don't get it.
With respect to Gwadar, interesting links. My take: Pakistan is simply bargaining shrewdly as the value of the port rises, and in the end will get what they want. The attacks will continue in a low-level way, punctuated by the occaisonal successful terrorist plot, but the economic attractiveness of the area will pull people in anyway.
Joe Katzman:
What, no heading for Ship of Fools?
"Soft power, not backed up by hard power = no power. I am unconcerned with what China claims to be "provocative" - and after watching the trumped-up anti-Japan riots recently, Dave, you should be too. This is a regime whose entire lifeblood is based on lies."
Its principle basis now seems to be delivering economic goodies. Supplements that with nationalism.
" The regime that still, to this day, backs North Korea and is the reason Kim is still in power."
For the fairly obvious reason that they think his fall would be dangerous to them. We dont have to share their preference for stability, but its not proof their aim is expansion.
" And how's that accounting for Tibet and Tienanmen going? "
Their a dictatorship. We know that. Doesnt prove theyre interested in expanding.
"Take nothing they say at face value. Look at the agenda and the power interest, because there isn't anything else. "
Some would say we should look at all countries that way.
"And the only want that matters here is the Chinese leadership's, until and unless China's political system changes completely. And if it does, this whole issue may go away. But it hasn't, yet, and unless China changes, nations around it are going to want options in case things get any worse."
Absolutely. The key is balance. You need to be prepared for if China becomes aggressive, without doing things that provoke it to be more aggressive. You listed their 4 priorities. Id think their first priority is to avoid a coalition being formed against them. Which gives us leverage, but not if they think one is going to be formed regardless of their behavior.
"In short, we don't have to convince China of shit. THEY need to start convincing a whole bunch of other nations of THEIR good intentions. Or find the ring growing tighter."
yes, but we've got to be clear about what the requirements are to convince us of their good intentions. It cant be an unending list of demands. And it cant involve their internal affairs, im afraid.
China, AL, doesn't care a whit about our good intentions or not.
China cares about internal politics first, internal stability second, and nothing else third.
China is basically a textbook example of a state primed towards aggressive adventures. Internal legitimacy not to mention internal politics DEPENDS on conquering Taiwan.
So war with China is inevitable if we are determined to defend Taiwan. If we don't, China will simply start conquering other countries, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia etc. in a replay of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. Likely also Japan (ironically).
China has a huge population of imbalanced men-to-women; with crashing demographics in the long run; and a recently industrialized base that promotes both illiberalism and aggressive militarism along with aggrieved nationalism. Couple that with the always present separatism, corruption, and factionalism and you get their Ace that they'll play when things really start to get hairy internally:
War against enemies abroad to "make China a Great Nation Again" etc.
Yep it's a Weimar Replay. Unless US and Allied Strength is so obvious that it's viewed as suicide.
I think the “shovel the snow north” is exactly what the Chinese are doing. Except in reverse and I would more think of it as “slight of hand”.
The Chinese are not dum they know the US has got at least a 20-30yr lead if we change nothing in our air and navy. After the QDR if we follow through I would say more like 50+yrs before the Chinese can try a power projection over water against the US (X-southeast Asian zone).
My belief is the Chinese Navy is not to check the US but just be defensive. Massive Subs wont take sea-lane from warships and dam sure cant escort supply convoys ask Germany. However Subs work great for being SCARY and very capable of causing chaos in transport/cargo ships. Is Japan, Taiwan, US, Australia ect all major economic sea trading powers going to want to risk widespread shipping lane chaos for months or more by going head on with China over some ex-Soviet-Stan backwater? Taiwan or SE Asia will guarantee this battle by the nature of the conflict itself.
A invasion or whatever PR name the Chinese give it (lets say to help stop terror playing to the LLL’s blame game) in the Stans region will play to all of China’s strengths. If Russia dares challenge the Chinese they may risk losing Siberia not to mention will the Russian pop support a war to protect some far of Muslim Stan were casualties and expense will be massive with lose a real possibility?
Will the US attempt to project heavy divisions all the way into central Asia (we just think Afghanistan is problematic and that is a infantry force no mech)? Our Asian alliance won’t want to leave their home open and the EU right. That will leave Russia who I think China is playing to break with the US. If Putin goes Dictator or goes Iran style banning all opposition (banning NGO’s & whispers of changing constitution looks that way) will the US pop support-sending forces to bail them out? Even better will any of these nations risk chaos on the sea-lanes to lend the Russians a hand?
Russia would never sell the Chinese weapons if they were in the cross hairs even Puty aint that crazy. Chinese playing the evil US war scenario, flaring emotions with Japan/Taiwan, and we get a slight of hand maneuver. Russia buys it sells the tech hell they even ran war games with China showing off all their top tech and strategies to boot (what a coup to see your enemies procedures and capabilities and get the their tech).
The Chinese options are going into a naval build up competition with the US that will take decades to achieve an edge or even equality with the US. That is if the US doesn’t wake up midstream and cut off the trade (we didn’t trade with the Soviet Union they were competition) and totally kill their economy (even if the EU don’t go with US they wont make up the difference and don’t forget they are more economic protectionist lately than we are). Also I may add we play this kind of game real good ask Soviet Union, Japan, Britain, Spain, France.
Or go into central Asia were their Army would dominate the local competition and at least match the Russians or Indians. Were their supply lines will be shorter than anyone challenging them. Were their Air Force can actually compete and play a role. Were the gains are not 15minutes of nationalist pride like Taiwan but massive secure natural resources and a rep. Were cost are not massive to devastating then long term isolation like Taiwan but nil to acceptable then a isolation but now they got the natural resources to outlive it.
I just cant see China winning in SE Asia and at the same time I can see them nearly unbeatable in the Stans. I can’t imagine the US invading E China or even embargoing China with the threat of sea-lane chaos that would follow with the Chinese Subs. I definitely don’t see the UN/EU horde marching to central Asia. Russia I think isolated from the west in 06’ and on the edge of civil war by their Leadership will be in ill equipped to step up. The Stans if their corrupt leadership even fights instead of taking the bribe and becoming good little proxy like they were for the Soviet Union would surprise me. India I don’t think could with their strong defensive attitude would be willing to cross the mountains for a major war they could sit out.
Bottom line I think the QDR is right on (yes one of the few) it’s a balance not perfect for anyone enough to carry US through the current WOT yet at the same time just enough to maybe not dominate but keep it real clear that war in SE Asia will be extremely expensive for China. This coupled with our new allies India, and secured old timers in Asia will keep the point clear.
We are doing what Brian wants but more from a pick the weak guy not US stance, which covers US both ways and that, is a good thing.
Whoo that was long.
Joe-you're correct about the eventual fate of Gwadar, insofar as Pakistan is a deeply cynical and opportunistic actor on the world stage, and insofar as his nuclear armaments allow Musharraf to be duplicitous with impunity.
In the end, for me, the fact that we're trying to "roll back" China's maritime expansionism at all is definitely an encouraging sign, whether we are successful in the specific case of Gwadar or not.
All Chinese rhetoric regarding Taiwan is a smoke screen. ALWAYS replace Taiwan with USA.
The 'Taiwan Issue' allows China to build up a blue water navy with the delighful cover story that it's only aimed at that 'lost' island.
In truth, China is following the path of the Kaiser: a blue water navy is supposed to give them respect and negotiating clout.
This time round Japan plays the role of Belguim and France.
China is without question behind the AQ Khan network. The insane idea that the Norks have the resources to run their own nuke progrom.... Most of the documents never got translated over from Mandarin!
The exotic shaped charge weaponry of the Iranians: Russian and Chinese.
Shaped charge explosives are critical to nuclear devices. These anti-tank explosives are but a small spinoff of nuclear studies.
The plain fact is that America is TOO POWERFUL to me named as an enemy; even though it is the only power left to thwart the despots. WAKE UP.
Every utterance is twisted by this reality.
Out Iran's way, 'Israel' subs for 'Taiwan': both are code for America.
Every despot has bought into Osama's vision: the far enemy (America) is the one to be attacked. That includes the Enarques.
My wife was born in Shanghai and moved to the US with her family when she was 9. We travel there often and have an apartment there.
One concern I have, from my observations, is the xenophobia of the Chinese. They are very nationalistic, and I think this dates back to when the foreign European powers occupied territories there.
This nationalism is easily whipped up to great effect. Ask any Chinese what they think of Taiwan, and you will get confrontational answers.
The second area of concern is the ratio of men to women due to the 1 child policy - men out number women very significantly. This might have social consequences in the future - men who are not married with families might be more militaristic, than not.
On the opposite side, there are movements underneath the surface that could have positive impact on China settling down (I stress 'could'). China is experiencing a huge growth in Christianity, for example. Hopefully, this will be positive.
All in all, China is run by a corrupt ruling class. I always point out that the US had a Korea policy, and China did too. Which one did a better job.
One last point is that while China is doing an amazing job economically, they have HUGE problems ahead, moving upstream from cheap labor/Manufacturing sector to higher intellectual capital sectors - there is a reason people are reluctant to offshore to China as opposed to India, or why no pharmaceutical company will manufacutre in China, etc.
Cheers,
Michael
I agree with the part about Chinese Nationalism. It is a very rabid form of Nationalism that I personally feel is a bomb waiting to go off. As a Chinese myself (not from China though), I am myself very surprised when it comes to discussing things like Taiwan or China's history with them. Rational discussions with even otherwise rational people become hard. When feelings and emotions are fanned, reason and objectivity takes second place. Even Lee Kuan Yew found that out the hard way. And guess what? It's the CCP who nurtured this beast called Nationalism by putting all the blame of past failures on the West and Japan. It is their trump card for maintaining national cohesiveness and keeping themselves in power. I say treat China with extreme caution - they are looking to retake the world position which they think was supposed to be theirs. And America happens to be occupying that position right now.
Fromthesmallisland - is this Taiwan?
My wife and I are both Christians. Ultimately, we try to base our core decisions on doing what is decent (in terms of Christian values). But, when I ask her about her views on Taiwan, there is a pause.
Eventually, she comes around and agrees that, yes Taiwan is a democracy, and if they want to be free, they should allowed to be free, or China should give them real reasons to not be apprehensive about joining back with them - Hong Kong not being very encouraging as an example, etc.,
But, it is the 'pause' that I find interesting and alarming, because wrapped up in that is a lot of nationalistic pride.
The point about Japan though (I lived in Japan for many years). They kinda were pretty brutal to most of Asia, so, while I like Japan, and am glad of the strategic relationship they have with us, they had a big hand in formenting animosity towards themselves, unfortunately. I long time ago, I agree. But, I can kinda understand why China and Korea are not too fond of them.
Also, someone wrote about Taiwan being a distraction above - I have not yet read your posting yet in its entirety, but, in addition to Taiwan's ports, absorbing Taiwan also gives China huge access to cash. According to Morgan Stanley's Annual report on foreign reserves, Taiwan has the 4th largest foreign reserves in US cash on deposit.
China has a huge balance of payments issue - money they are bringing in is high, but they have tremendous internal debt through state banks and other lending agencies on bad business projects. The amount of bad debt is continually revised - upward.
Access to Taiwain's reserves would go a long way in pushing out a near term major problem to 10 plus years at least.
Also, is anyone writng about China's push into eastern Russia via immigrants?
Cheers,
Michael
What about a Kunming China/Rangoon Rail Line?
How would that fit in?
Lol, nope. From a MUCH smaller island - Singapore. Personally, when I look at Sino-Japan relations, I see China's constant fanning of anti-Japanese emotions to be rather alarming. Is the CCP really as concerned about the past as they'd like everybody to believe? I say BS. It smacks of barely concealed attempts to suppress Japan as a competitor to China's quest for influence in Asia. You'd forgive me for rolling my eyes whenever they accuse America of being a 'hegemon'. I sense more than a tinge of jealousy whenever I hear that.
Back to their fanning of anti-Japanese feelings - Singapore suffered under the Japanese too. Sure there wasn't a Singaporean Nanking massacre, but many people died too. Why then the vast difference between attitudes towards Mainland and non-Mainland Chinese towards Japanese? At least in Singapore, the lesson espoused in history textbooks was that 'no one was in charge of our security but ourselves. Defense is paramount'. Yet from my interactions with Mainland Chinese, my distinct impression was that the lesson they were taught was 'the Japanese are evil'. And you won't believe what they can say - things like 'we want to do what they did to us' (and worse. I'd rather not sully this place with their crap) etc. My immediate thoughts then was that they were no better than the 1940's Japanese they were condemning. At that moment, I never felt more alien to them, even though we were actually from the same race.
Ah, Singapore. I should have thought of that. I spent a lot of time there since the 80's - a bastion of stability in a tumultuous part of the globe. I have always admired how they reinvent themselves to remain competitive - very smart workforce, IT, Fincance, great location, etc.,
It is also interesting to see how people born in Singapore are proud to be 'Singporeans.'
The reference above about pharmaceuticals not wanting to trust China with their patents was from a recent article in Der Spiegal by Lee Kuan Yew (as well as being an obvious observation).
Your points about China/Japan are interesting. But, there is a real dislike not just by the Chinese, but also the Koreans. Japan today is much different than then, as is Germany. But, Japan was really brutal - part of their militaristic culture that dates back centuries.
I agree with you that the CCP is just whipping it up for their own intent. They do so with us - remember the pilot who crashed into our plane in 2000 forcing it to land in Hunan? We were flying in international waters, but that pilot was over zealous in trying to force our plane out of that area.
A scary area.
Which has always bothered me that the Clinton administration allowed Loral space corp (largest campaign donor) to teach the Chinese how to make their missles fly straight for 'civilian' purposes.
This was blocked by his state dept., national security advisor, defense secretary, etc., so he pulled the decision out of their hands and gave it to Ron Brown, the Commerce secretary.
Not to mention us loosing secrets on minaturizing nuclear warheads under his watch.
Has anyone been following on how they (the Chinese) have been attacking our servers and quickly downloading info, while removing traces of what happened? I have been reading of this - downloading things like manuals on armaments, plane specs, etc., Very sophisticated information gathering - they are pouring a lot into getting access to what should be secure documents.
Cheers,