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Thursday Winds of War: April 14/06

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Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are given by Matt 'Colt' of Eurabian Times.

Sorry it's late, and for last week - surprise trip to Holland.

TOP TOPICS

  • Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Tuesday that Iran has joined the nuclear club, following the successful enrichment of uranium by Iranian scientists. The Federation of American Scientists has a calculator to predict how long it would take Iran to enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon - they reckon 3 years, but they start with the 165 centrifuges used in their recent test. Unfortunately, Iran has announced they're going to use the 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz, once they're built. A U.S. official says that it would take 16 days to enrich enough for a bomb once Natanz is up and running. Trent: Iran's Nuclear Break Out Has Begun. That presupposes that Iran doesn't have any other uranium enrichment plants, of course, and a fair few diplomats suspect they might.
  • Another bombing in Karachi, with at least 60 dead, but this time it is Sunni on Sunni. More specifically, it is the Wahhabi/Deobandi Sipah Sahaba and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi targeting the Sunni Tehrik, members of the Barelvi sect. B. Raman reports that the entire leadership of the Sunni Tehrik group was murdered in the double suicide bombing. AKI concurs that Sunni Tehrik is anti-Wahabbi, but also describe them as pro-Iranian. Whatever their sect, the group's new leader has given Pakistani authorities until today to catch the perpetrators. The Pakistani army is on alert in Karachi to guard against riots and counter-attacks.

Other Topics Today Include: West must bow to Iran; Iran buys airliners; PFLP-GC congratulate mullahs; Hamas meet with al-Qaeda; IDF returns to Gaza; Egyptian Islamists release target list; another Jordan prison riot crushed; Iraq arrests 31 'security guards' Saddam's Secrets; senior A-Q guys killed in Iraq; Saudis look east; Yemen may run out of water; Manhattan DA closes $3 billion terror-funding network; A-Q sets up in Haiti; Americans like Islam less and less; FARC loses coke shipment to Mexican authorities; Dutch gov't adivsors suggest surrender; Spain indicts 29 for 3/11; ETA sets terms; Islamists block Turkish army appointment; Chechnya Weekly; LeT suicide bombing thwarted; Taliban in Waziristan; Aussies open police station in Bangladesh; Charles de Gaulle to provide air support in Afghanistan; Abu Sayyaf news; bombings in Sri Lanka kill 37; Morocco busts GSPC cell; Sudan sets up militia to fight UN; China looks to Africa; new Zawahiri tape; A-Q running out of sanctuaries; and much more.

Iran

  • Ahmadinejad says that the West must bow down to to the greatness of the Iranian nation. “If you do not return to monotheism and worshipping god and refuse to accept justice then you will burn in the fire of the nations’ fury”, Ahmadinejad said. Robert Spencer notes that it is customary to invite infidels to accept Islam prior to the usual butchery.
  • Ahmed Jibril, head of the PFLP-GC, rushed to Iran to congratulate the mullahs on their successful enrichment of uranium.
  • Following Iran's missile-launch of peace during their recent military exercises comes an invitation for regional countries to sign a non-aggression pact with the crocodile mullahs.
  • Despite Ahmadinejad being, well, Ahmadinejad, he is a welcome guest of Germany at the World Cup this summer.

The Middle East

  • Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal met with a representative of al-Qaeda while visiting Yemen two weeks ago. Sheikh Abd al-Majid al-Zindani is described by the State Department, Zindani has a long history of working with bin Laden, notably serving as one of his spiritual leaders. In this leadership capacity, he has been able to influence and support many terrorist causes, including actively recruiting for al-Qaida training camps.
  • Meanwhile in Gaza... Israeli troops have entered Gaza following a thwarted attack on Pesach. They were searching for bombs planted on a road just inside the Gaza fence. Related: following the example set by terror groups and criminal gangs, local clans have set up their own militas.
  • An Egyptian Islamist group has threatened numerous people with death, including Wafa Sultan, Coptic Christians and secular Muslims.
  • Christians in Israel and the territories are, Reuters says, caught in midst of conflict. Firebombings at a parish school, threats to churches and attacks on monks - plus, the security fence, of course.
  • The IDF would like to remain in any territories given to Hamas in the upcoming 'convergence' plan. A senior officer said that, without another force to take control, areas not under Israeli control would be used to launch rockets and mortars in to Israel.
  • An Australian Muslim charged with various terrorism offences in Lebanon will be released due to a lack of evidence. An intercepted phone conversation had Saleh Jamal telling his wife he would never see her again because he was going to a place 'that is higher than the mountains'.
  • The second Islamist prisoner uprising in Jordan in six weeks has been put down. One prisoner, jailed for conspiracy to commit an act of terrorism, was killed and several police and inmates had light-to-moderate injuries.

Iraq and the Gulf

  • Melanie Phillips speaks to General Georges Sada, once Saddam's Air Vice Marshal. Sada described in detail how Saddam moved large quantities of WMD to Syria in 2002-3 following a disaster in that country. He also disputed the translation of a taped conversation of Saddam and his generals, claiming that the translators were unfamiliar with the Tikriti dialect. In his own translation, he claims they say that 'the problem of the chemical weapons is solved but the biological are still causing a problem; that this problem will probably be solved with the help of the Russians and the French'.
  • John R. Bradley sent me a great article about the state of Saudi Arabia and the threat constitutional reformers pose to the House of Saud's rule - impossible to summarise, have a look for yourself.
  • Where is Bilal Hussein? Let's start with 'who'. Hussein has been embedded with terrorists in Iraq on-and-off, fortunately present at the murder of Iraqi election workers, and an Italian civilian. Where is he? Well, AP says there are reports he has been detained by U.S. forces.
  • A critic of al-Qaeda and Wahhabism has been arrested by Saudi authorities for 'doubting the [Islamic] creed' and for 'harbouring destructive thoughts'. Rabbah al-Quwaii is a journalist for the Riyadh tabloid al-Shams.
  • Saudi Arabia has set free thousands of terrorist suspects, after the government concluded that they do not pose a threat (other prisoners renounced terrorism).
  • Yemen may run out of water in 10 years. The report predicts internal strife, as people are forced to relocate, and inter-clan fighting as supplies dwindle further.

The Americas

  • A Manhattan district attorney has shut down a terror-funding pipeline from South America's tri-border area to the Middle East. $3 billion in profits went to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the West Bank - through a New York branch of the Bank of America.
  • Zacarias Moussaoui told a U.S. court that testimony from family members of those killed on 9/11 made his day. He also said he wanted to see more 9/11s. The CT Blog has much more.

Europe

  • A Dutch think-tank that advises the government on domestic policy is going to tell them to capitulate to terrorists adopt Sharia law, increase ties with Hezbollah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, while denouncing the U.S. and Israel. Far from being naive, the report's author counters that, the only other option is to 'to go on living in a land that is plagued by fear of attacks'.
  • A Spanish court has indicted 29 men in connection with the Madrid bombings. Lots of information here and here.
  • Rita Verdonk, Holland's immigration minister, has given in to pressure and temporarily stopped deporting Iranian gays and Christians. Citing a previous assessment by Dutch officials, she maintained gay people and Christians don't face a significant risk of persecution in Iran, as long as they are not too open about themselves.
  • Britain's latest terror legislation is now in force. The controversial 'glorification of terrorism' clause remained on the bill despite pressure from the opposition and the House of Lords.
  • Kosovo's UN chief administrator has been criticised in an EU/UN internal report for tolerating corruption. Soren Jessen Petersen is said to have taken no action to prevent the gross corruption and fraud ongoing at Pristina airport.
  • The EU has said that, unless Macedonia tells all about its alleged involvement in the CIA kidnapping of a German citizen, they can't join the Union.
  • Spain will release 1,500 illegal immigrants it caught on the Canary Islands, who had sailed from Africa. Spanish immigration law says that, if the nationality of an illegal cannot be established in 40 days, they must be released. It doesn't say that they have to be flown to mainland Europe on the Spanish taxpayer's dime, but that will happen, too.

Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia

  • The latest Chechnya Weekly is out. Clashes between soldiers and terrorists in Nazran and Makhchkala, Jamaat Kataib al Khoul claim a bank robbery and more besides.
  • Two Russian workers were arrested this week for stealing 20kg of uranium. Police recieved a tip that a local man was looking for a buyer, and caught the SOB red-handed.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

  • Abdul Rahman Al-Mohajir, an al-Qaeda leader in North Waziristan, may or may not be dead. Pakistani forces attacked a hideout with gunships, but pro-Taliban militias surrounded the area and took away the bodies before goverment troops could identify the dead.
  • Four members of Lashkar-e-Taiba have been arrested in India. They were planning to carry out a suicide attack in the days before an upcoming local election. 12 hand grenades, a rifle and a handgun were recovered.
  • The Taliban throws the gauntlet at Canada: We think that when we kill enough Canadians they will quit war and return home. The Globe and Mail quote a poll showing 46% opposed to the deployment, 45% in favour.
  • Four bomb-making jihadis are being sent down for 20 years in Bangladesh. All four were severely injured after bombs they were making detonated in their hotel room in December 2003. Five others were acquitted.
  • The Balochistan Liberation Army has been outlawed by the Pakistani government (I thought this had happened already). The BLA has carried out numerous attacks on government police and soldiers.

Far East & South East Asia

  • Jamestown's China Brief: energy security, coal and the 'Malacca dilemma'.
  • StrategyPage looks at the cyber-threat and how China may be involved with the criminal gangs behind the various scams and hacks.
  • North Korea is threatening to boost their 'deterrent force' (ie, nuclear arsenal) before the next six-party talks begin. How can the U.S. prevent this? Well, the NorK envoy says they want $24 million seized by the USG because it was the profits of NorK money laundering and counterfeiting operations.
  • Seven members of an Abu Sayyaf affiliated group in the Phillipines have turned themselves in to the military.
  • The World Bank's new chief, Paul Wolfowitz, has told Indonesia to crack down on Islamic extremism and corruption, citing these things as holding back Indonesia's development. He did, however, praise Indonesia's transition from authoritarianism to democracy.
  • A Muslim believed linked to al-Qaeda has admitted to committing fraud on behalf of terrorists. Izzydeen Atik is allegedly part of a cell that planned terror attacks on Australian soil. He told investigators he had been assigned to obtain explosives and firearms. Another suspected terrorist had numerous recordings and photographs of attacks on infidel forces on his computer.

Africa

  • The United Nations Security Council has called for a smooth transition of the African Union mission in Darfur to be turned over to UN control. Meanwhile, Sudan has prepared for the transition by forming the Darfur Jihad Organisation and the Blood Brigades to wage war against the UN presence in Sudan. Further south, the peace deal is collapsing - the rebels have disarmed, but aren't being integrated in to the Sudanese government.
  • Peter Brookes takes a look at the growing Chinese influence in Africa, starting with Sudan's PLA-guarded oil facilites, China's assistance in circumventing the international arms embargo and the massive credit given to resource-rich nations such as Nigeria and Angola.
  • A Somali gang attacked a UN food convoy, killing two men and wounding nine. Armed guards accompany food convoys in Somalia because local gangs deny rivals food, and/or sell it.

The Global War

  • Al-Qaeda has little in the way of state-sponsorship these days, sayeth StrategyPage. Religious 'charities' in Syria and Sudan are no substitute, and al-Qaeda's relationship with Iran is troubled.
  • Ayman al-Zawahiri has released another tape. Besides the usual promised slaughter, he heaps praise on Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which is very interesting in light of the numerous reports of Zarqawi being demoted and chastised by Zawahiri.
  • A 30-year veteran of French intelligence has written a great analysis of the Muslim Brotherhood (PDF). They are, in his words, 'the only transnational actor capable of managing and turning the
    political and social differences of the Muslim world to its advantage.'
  • Google News is including the Specially Designated Global Terrorist group, al-Manar (the propaganda wing of Hezbollah), as a news source.
  • Al-Qaeda sees universities as prime recruiting grounds. Recruiters are targeting students and faculty for technical expertise.

And finally,

Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.

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Tracked: April 14, 2006 10:49 PM
Excerpt: Marines Ban Under Armour Though the moisture-wicking undershirts are immensely popular, the potential for burn and melt injuries from the synthetic fabric is deemed too...

13 Comments

"Unfortunately, Iran has announced they're going to use the 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz"

We addressed that pretty thoroughly in the last Iran thread. They have to build those centrifuges first. Which takes 3-5 years. So 6 of one, half dozen of the other.

Unless they don't have to build those centrifuges. We discovered the original A.Q. Khan network almost accidentally. Why shouldn't we assume the worst, assume that there are other proliferators out there?

"Unless they don't have to build those centrifuges. We discovered the original A.Q. Khan network almost accidentally. Why shouldn't we assume the worst, assume that there are other proliferators out there?"

Perhaps we should, but in that case the story on Natanz is irrelevant. We know about Natanz, so its something we can talk specifically about.

Yes, the "16 days" meme is a particularly egregious example of irresponsible spinning. That kind of talk should be an embarrassment, no matter which side of the issue you are on.

Even if you believe that Iran is an imminent and deadly threat (which I don't), that kind of estimate reminds everyone of the irresponsible fear-mongering about the imminence of mushroom clouds that took place before the Iraq invasion. It therefore decreases the willingness of the American people to listen, because they have heard this kind of thing before, and they know how it came out.

People on both sides of the question who believe in fact-based discourse should be dumping on Stephen Rademacher.

The arithmetic is that if Iran was efficiently running enrichment cascades with 54,000 centrifuges (which they are not), then they would have enough enriched uranium for another gun-type bomb every 16 days.

AFAIK Rademacher's statement isn't wrong; it just has to be seen in context.

Perhaps Rademacher carefully qualified his statement, making it technically correct, but he knows (as did people making similar statements before the Iraq invasion) that it will be quoted without the qualifications, and often with misleading and even false changes to inflame the public.

As an example, consider the summary above that we're discussing:

"Unfortunately, Iran has announced they're going to use the 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz - a U.S. official says that it would take 16 days to enrich enough for a bomb."

From the above sentence, it sure would be easy for the reader to conclude that there are currently 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz (which is false), and that Iran will have enough enriched uranium for a bomb within 16 days, by April 30 (which is absurd). That's irresponsible journalism.

If I had my own Oak Ride facility, I could turn out hydrogen bombs every few weeks. True, just not particularly useful.

Beard,

I agree with you--the synopsis you quote from the body of this post is misleading to the reader.

So noted, and altered. Unfortunately I don't have time to thoroughly read all of the links I post.

Thanks, Colt. I appreciate the correction.

Back to the larger issue. Regardless of the actual facts of the case, don't you imagine that the Bush administration will have a harder time this time around, convincing the American people that Iran is a terrible threat and they know how to handle it, given the dramatic disjuncture between their statements and predictions about Iraq and how the actual facts on the ground ended up working out?

Buehner -- So I take it you believe then that Iran can turn out nukes quickly. Seeing as how Oak Ridge is about 60 years old.

Bush of course won't do anything, other than to encourage Iran to nuke us. Or threaten to do so.

Among other things Dems have staked their entire opposition to Bush on the goodwill and mercy and general niceness of Iran. Wait until Ahmadinejad orders the South Park guys executed for blasphemy, or Wafa Sultan, or whoever, and threatens to nuke us if we don't.

I mean once Iran threatens, we don't comply, they nuke us, how is the Democratic Party relevant? How does it even exist? After than GWB will have no domestic constraints whatsover other than the American Public urging him to nuke as many of the enemy as possible.

Forget Iraq. Old news. A smoking hole where a major US city used to be and Iran crowing, makes EVERYTHING the Dems have said for 5 plus years total garbage. As relevant as the Whigs.

I won't mention any names, but isn't someone here getting a little unhinged?

Jim, I cant make heads or tales of that post. There is something insipidly wrong when people are arguing against accuracy.

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