Thursday Winds of War: April 14/06

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are given by Matt 'Colt' of Eurabian Times.

Sorry it's late, and for last week - surprise trip to Holland.

TOP TOPICS

• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Tuesday that Iran has joined the nuclear club, following the successful enrichment of uranium by Iranian scientists. The Federation of American Scientists has a calculator to predict how long it would take Iran to enrich enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon - they reckon 3 years, but they start with the 165 centrifuges used in their recent test. Unfortunately, Iran has announced they're going to use the 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz, once they're built. A U.S. official says that it would take 16 days to enrich enough for a bomb once Natanz is up and running. Trent: Iran's Nuclear Break Out Has Begun. That presupposes that Iran doesn't have any other uranium enrichment plants, of course, and a fair few diplomats suspect they might.

• Romano Prodi has declared victory in the Italian elections. Prodi has turned down a proposal by outgoing prime minister Silvio Berlusconi to form a coalition government. Prodi has reaffirmed his commitment to pulling Italian forces from Iraq, as well as taking a soft-line with the new Hamas government. This might have prompted Hamas's message of congratulations.

• Another bombing in Karachi, with at least 60 dead, but this time it is Sunni on Sunni. More specifically, it is the Wahhabi/Deobandi Sipah Sahaba and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi targeting the Sunni Tehrik, members of the Barelvi sect. B. Raman reports that the entire leadership of the Sunni Tehrik group was murdered in the double suicide bombing. AKI concurs that Sunni Tehrik is anti-Wahabbi, but also describe them as pro-Iranian. Whatever their sect, the group's new leader has given Pakistani authorities until today to catch the perpetrators. The Pakistani army is on alert in Karachi to guard against riots and counter-attacks.

• Saddam's Philippines Terror Connection looks at documents found in Iraq which show Iraq funded the al-Qaeda outfit in the Phillipines, Abu Sayyaf. Several days old, but still important, Captain's Quarters has seen some other documents which show Iraq recruited suicide bombers to attack American targets.

• Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says the Maoist war against the state is the greatest internal threat India has faced since independence. He told ministers that the Naxal movement is present in 160 of India's 604 administrative districts. That said, the Maoists are encountering problems - losing 12 dead or captured for every dead soldier or policeman. The populace are beginning to resist their terror tactics, too - the Maoists 'recruit' by kidnapping teenagers and brainwashing them.

Other Topics Today Include: West must bow to Iran; Iran buys airliners; PFLP-GC congratulate mullahs; Hamas meet with al-Qaeda; IDF returns to Gaza; Egyptian Islamists release target list; another Jordan prison riot crushed; Iraq arrests 31 'security guards' Saddam's Secrets; senior A-Q guys killed in Iraq; Saudis look east; Yemen may run out of water; Manhattan DA closes $3 billion terror-funding network; A-Q sets up in Haiti; Americans like Islam less and less; FARC loses coke shipment to Mexican authorities; Dutch gov't adivsors suggest surrender; Spain indicts 29 for 3/11; ETA sets terms; Islamists block Turkish army appointment; Chechnya Weekly; LeT suicide bombing thwarted; Taliban in Waziristan; Aussies open police station in Bangladesh; Charles de Gaulle to provide air support in Afghanistan; Abu Sayyaf news; bombings in Sri Lanka kill 37; Morocco busts GSPC cell; Sudan sets up militia to fight UN; China looks to Africa; new Zawahiri tape; A-Q running out of sanctuaries; and much more.

Iran

• Ahmadinejad says that the West must bow down to to the greatness of the Iranian nation. “If you do not return to monotheism and worshipping god and refuse to accept justice then you will burn in the fire of the nations’ fury”, Ahmadinejad said. Robert Spencer notes that it is customary to invite infidels to accept Islam prior to the usual butchery.

• Is Iran buying American airliners to use in terrorist attacks against the United States?

• China remains opposed to economic sanctions against Iran.

• Ahmed Jibril, head of the PFLP-GC, rushed to Iran to congratulate the mullahs on their successful enrichment of uranium.

• Following Iran's missile-launch of peace during their recent military exercises comes an invitation for regional countries to sign a non-aggression pact with the crocodile mullahs.

• Despite Ahmadinejad being, well, Ahmadinejad, he is a welcome guest of Germany at the World Cup this summer.

• The Saudis are more concerned about the U.S. attacking Iran than Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, to the extent that they are pressing Russia to prevent any UN authorisation for an attack.

The Middle East

• Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal met with a representative of al-Qaeda while visiting Yemen two weeks ago. Sheikh Abd al-Majid al-Zindani is described by the State Department, Zindani has a long history of working with bin Laden, notably serving as one of his spiritual leaders. In this leadership capacity, he has been able to influence and support many terrorist causes, including actively recruiting for al-Qaida training camps.

• Nine Lebanese Sunnis have been arrested for planning an 'attack against the state'. A Lebanese paper claimed the target was Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, but a judiciary source denied the claim. The plot may be part of growing tensions between Sunni and Shi'ite.

• Meanwhile in Gaza... Israeli troops have entered Gaza following a thwarted attack on Pesach. They were searching for bombs planted on a road just inside the Gaza fence. Related: following the example set by terror groups and criminal gangs, local clans have set up their own militas.

• Hamas sources claim that PM Ismail Haniyeh will announce Hamas will recognise Israel if it pulls back to the 1967 armistice lines.

• The Israelis say they've arrested 90 prospective suicide bombers in the last three months. Members of every terrorist group in the territories - except Hamas - were amongst those captured. Why not Hamas? Understanding the Direction of the New Hamas Government - Between Tactical Pragmatism and Al-Qaeda Jihadism has an explanation.

• An Egyptian Islamist group has threatened numerous people with death, including Wafa Sultan, Coptic Christians and secular Muslims.

• Egypt has released 900 members of Jamaa Islamiya, including Najeh Ibrahim, the group's leader. Jamaa Islamiya killed dozens of Christians and tourists during the 1990s.

• Christians in Israel and the territories are, Reuters says, caught in midst of conflict. Firebombings at a parish school, threats to churches and attacks on monks - plus, the security fence, of course.

• The IDF would like to remain in any territories given to Hamas in the upcoming 'convergence' plan. A senior officer said that, without another force to take control, areas not under Israeli control would be used to launch rockets and mortars in to Israel.

• An alternative to the 'convergence' plan has been touted: a federation between Jordan and Palestine. Hear the guys out, they have some good ideas. Olmert, by the way, says 'convergence' will cost $10 billion - and he wants international cash to fund it.

• An Australian Muslim charged with various terrorism offences in Lebanon will be released due to a lack of evidence. An intercepted phone conversation had Saleh Jamal telling his wife he would never see her again because he was going to a place 'that is higher than the mountains'.

• The second Islamist prisoner uprising in Jordan in six weeks has been put down. One prisoner, jailed for conspiracy to commit an act of terrorism, was killed and several police and inmates had light-to-moderate injuries.

Iraq and the Gulf

• Iraqi police have arrested 31 members of an Arab security firm because the suspects intended to carry out terrorist attacks against civilians. The police seized sniper rifles and RPGS besides the usual array of AKs and handguns.

• Melanie Phillips speaks to General Georges Sada, once Saddam's Air Vice Marshal. Sada described in detail how Saddam moved large quantities of WMD to Syria in 2002-3 following a disaster in that country. He also disputed the translation of a taped conversation of Saddam and his generals, claiming that the translators were unfamiliar with the Tikriti dialect. In his own translation, he claims they say that 'the problem of the chemical weapons is solved but the biological are still causing a problem; that this problem will probably be solved with the help of the Russians and the French'.

• A coalition spokesman told journalists that al-Qaeda is responsible for over 90% of suicide bombings in Iraq.

• Saudi Arabia is building ties with countries in east Asia, including China, but also Malaysia, South Korea and Singapore. More on Sino-Saudi relations here.

• Jamestown has a look at Abu Ayman, the Syrian-trained and -armed Zarqawi aide responsible for numerous attacks - captured by U.S. and Iraqi forces early this month. Another al-Qaeda leader, who served as a liason between terror networks, was killed outside Baquba by U.S. forces.

• A cache of new, Iranian-made arms have been discovered in Tikrit.

• The U.S. is to fit an Israeli-made anti-RPG system to its armoured vehicles. The 'force-field' relies on a mixture of witchcraft and science to detonate anti-tank missiles 10-30 metres away from the vehicle.

• John R. Bradley sent me a great article about the state of Saudi Arabia and the threat constitutional reformers pose to the House of Saud's rule - impossible to summarise, have a look for yourself.

• Where is Bilal Hussein? Let's start with 'who'. Hussein has been embedded with terrorists in Iraq on-and-off, fortunately present at the murder of Iraqi election workers, and an Italian civilian. Where is he? Well, AP says there are reports he has been detained by U.S. forces.

• A critic of al-Qaeda and Wahhabism has been arrested by Saudi authorities for 'doubting the [Islamic] creed' and for 'harbouring destructive thoughts'. Rabbah al-Quwaii is a journalist for the Riyadh tabloid al-Shams.

• Saudi Arabia has set free thousands of terrorist suspects, after the government concluded that they do not pose a threat (other prisoners renounced terrorism).

• Yemen may run out of water in 10 years. The report predicts internal strife, as people are forced to relocate, and inter-clan fighting as supplies dwindle further.

The Americas

• A Manhattan district attorney has shut down a terror-funding pipeline from South America's tri-border area to the Middle East. $3 billion in profits went to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the West Bank - through a New York branch of the Bank of America.

• Jamestown looks at al-Qaeda in Colombia.

• Four Asian businessman have been charged with plotting to export small arms, Sidewinder missiles and radar equipment to Indonesia.

• Canada's foreign office has created a Muslim policy unit, run by a rather nasty-sounding lady.

• U.S. intelligence has heard A-Q may have set up in restive tourist-spot Haiti.

• Zacarias Moussaoui told a U.S. court that testimony from family members of those killed on 9/11 made his day. He also said he wanted to see more 9/11s. The CT Blog has much more.

• A CBS poll has found that Americans are less and less keen on Islam - 45% of Americans have an unfavourable view of the religion. Some good thoughts on the poll here.

• Another setback for FARC - 5.5 tons of cocaine seized by Mexican authorities.

• The jury in the Lodi trial is deciding on their verdict. Hamid Hayat is said to have trained in terrorist camps in Pakistan for 'violent jihad'. One witness says that the terror camp where Hayat trained may have been a military facility.

Europe

• A Dutch think-tank that advises the government on domestic policy is going to tell them to capitulate to terrorists adopt Sharia law, increase ties with Hezbollah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, while denouncing the U.S. and Israel. Far from being naive, the report's author counters that, the only other option is to 'to go on living in a land that is plagued by fear of attacks'.

• A Spanish court has indicted 29 men in connection with the Madrid bombings. Lots of information here and here.

• A new poll has found that 45% of Germans believe the U.S. is a greater threat to world peace than Iran. 16% believe they are equal, with only 18% seeing Iran as more dangerous than the U.S.

• The European Union will stop referring to Islamic terrorists as Islamic terrorists. An EU official said that the Union would refer to Islamic terrorists as 'terrorists who abusively invoke Islam', and review the terms 'Islamist', 'fundamentalist' and 'jihad'.

• Rita Verdonk, Holland's immigration minister, has given in to pressure and temporarily stopped deporting Iranian gays and Christians. Citing a previous assessment by Dutch officials, she maintained gay people and Christians don't face a significant risk of persecution in Iran, as long as they are not too open about themselves.

• ETA has set its terms: they want everything they were demanding before the ceasefire - to annex parts of France and Spain, the release of terrorists, etc. And if Diario de Navarra is right, the ceasefire apparently doesn't include extorting Basque businessmen.

• Britain's latest terror legislation is now in force. The controversial 'glorification of terrorism' clause remained on the bill despite pressure from the opposition and the House of Lords.

• Kosovo's UN chief administrator has been criticised in an EU/UN internal report for tolerating corruption. Soren Jessen Petersen is said to have taken no action to prevent the gross corruption and fraud ongoing at Pristina airport.

• A British airliner was diverted to Glasgow airport after cabin crew were handed a note saying there was a bomb on board. No bomb was found by the Army bomb disposal team, and no-one was arrested for the threat.

• The EU has said that, unless Macedonia tells all about its alleged involvement in the CIA kidnapping of a German citizen, they can't join the Union.

• Spain will release 1,500 illegal immigrants it caught on the Canary Islands, who had sailed from Africa. Spanish immigration law says that, if the nationality of an illegal cannot be established in 40 days, they must be released. It doesn't say that they have to be flown to mainland Europe on the Spanish taxpayer's dime, but that will happen, too.

Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia

• Turkish Islamists, including the ruling AKP, are trying to block a hawkish secular general from becoming chief of staff. Gen. Mehmet Yasar Buyukanit is the latest secular official whose influence Turkish Islamists are trying to curb.

• The latest Chechnya Weekly is out. Clashes between soldiers and terrorists in Nazran and Makhchkala, Jamaat Kataib al Khoul claim a bank robbery and more besides.

• Two Russian workers were arrested this week for stealing 20kg of uranium. Police recieved a tip that a local man was looking for a buyer, and caught the SOB red-handed.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

• Abdul Rahman Al-Mohajir, an al-Qaeda leader in North Waziristan, may or may not be dead. Pakistani forces attacked a hideout with gunships, but pro-Taliban militias surrounded the area and took away the bodies before goverment troops could identify the dead.

• Four members of Lashkar-e-Taiba have been arrested in India. They were planning to carry out a suicide attack in the days before an upcoming local election. 12 hand grenades, a rifle and a handgun were recovered.

• The Taliban throws the gauntlet at Canada: We think that when we kill enough Canadians they will quit war and return home. The Globe and Mail quote a poll showing 46% opposed to the deployment, 45% in favour.

• The Taliban are offering conditions for peace talks in North Waziristan: pull out all troops, release all prisoners, cancel all arrest warrants and let us carry our weapons. And then we'll talk.

• In South Waziristan, the Taliban have been invited to open an office to crack down on crime - not to institute Sharia law.

• Four bomb-making jihadis are being sent down for 20 years in Bangladesh. All four were severely injured after bombs they were making detonated in their hotel room in December 2003. Five others were acquitted.

• A day after a Taliban rocket killed seven children in Kunar, coalition forces killed six Taliban.

• As Bangladesh becomes an increasingly important hub for al-Qaeda terrorists, the Australian Federal Police have announced their intention to open an office there. They will also open one in India, bringing the total of AFP offices in Asia and the South Pacific to 19.

• France's aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, is to sail to Afghanistan to provide air support to coalition forces. (Notice the lack of snarky comments.)

• The Balochistan Liberation Army has been outlawed by the Pakistani government (I thought this had happened already). The BLA has carried out numerous attacks on government police and soldiers.

Far East & South East Asia

• Jamestown's China Brief: energy security, coal and the 'Malacca dilemma'.

• StrategyPage looks at the cyber-threat and how China may be involved with the criminal gangs behind the various scams and hacks.

• North Korea is threatening to boost their 'deterrent force' (ie, nuclear arsenal) before the next six-party talks begin. How can the U.S. prevent this? Well, the NorK envoy says they want $24 million seized by the USG because it was the profits of NorK money laundering and counterfeiting operations.

• Seven members of an Abu Sayyaf affiliated group in the Phillipines have turned themselves in to the military.

• An Abu Sayyaf goon was killed when he went to inspect a mine that failed to explode. He had planted it on a road used by soldiers on Jolo - after it failed to explode, he went to check it out and, well...

• In other Abu Sayyaf news, a local leader plus a terror buddy were killed by Filipino troops. Amilhamja Ajijul was involved in a 2002 bombing that killed a U.S. soldier. Repeated from above, Saddam's Philippines Terror Connection.

• Indonesia may lose another province to the UN. Papua has the misfortune to have valuable natural resources and a non-Malay ethnic majority.

• The World Bank's new chief, Paul Wolfowitz, has told Indonesia to crack down on Islamic extremism and corruption, citing these things as holding back Indonesia's development. He did, however, praise Indonesia's transition from authoritarianism to democracy.

• 16 people have been killed in the bombing of a Sri Lankan market. Four bombings have killed 37 people since Monday. The UN has appealed for calm ahead of upcoming talks between the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tigers.

• A Bangladeshi terrorist has blown himself, an accomplice and a rickshaw driver up when the bomb he was carrying detonated prematurely.

• A Muslim believed linked to al-Qaeda has admitted to committing fraud on behalf of terrorists. Izzydeen Atik is allegedly part of a cell that planned terror attacks on Australian soil. He told investigators he had been assigned to obtain explosives and firearms. Another suspected terrorist had numerous recordings and photographs of attacks on infidel forces on his computer.

Africa

• A cell of North Africans arrested in Morocco last week were linked with the GSPC and planned to attack targets across Western Europe and in Morocco. More details after the jump.

• The United Nations Security Council has called for a smooth transition of the African Union mission in Darfur to be turned over to UN control. Meanwhile, Sudan has prepared for the transition by forming the Darfur Jihad Organisation and the Blood Brigades to wage war against the UN presence in Sudan. Further south, the peace deal is collapsing - the rebels have disarmed, but aren't being integrated in to the Sudanese government.

• The Tuareg tribes in Mali are waging war against the government again, and al-Qaeda is taking advantage.

• Peter Brookes takes a look at the growing Chinese influence in Africa, starting with Sudan's PLA-guarded oil facilites, China's assistance in circumventing the international arms embargo and the massive credit given to resource-rich nations such as Nigeria and Angola.

• Al-Sharq al-Awsat claims that the U.S. has been backing Somali clans against the Islamic Courts, and are particularly interested in five al-Qaeda terrorists who are supposedly hiding in Mogadishu.

• Following the GSPC's attack on customs officers, in which 13 were killed and 10 wounded (plus one missing), the Algerian government struck back, killing 10 terrorists and seizing a cache of weapons.

• Chadian government soldiers are thought to be in control of the capital, N'Djamena, following an attempt to overthrow the president. The Chadian government blames Sudan for the rebel uprising. France has sent another 100+ troops to bulk up the French presence to 1,200. The rebels claim a French fighters bombed civilian towns - France says they fired warning shots at rebel convoys.

• A Somali gang attacked a UN food convoy, killing two men and wounding nine. Armed guards accompany food convoys in Somalia because local gangs deny rivals food, and/or sell it.

• Eritrea, having closed all evangelical churches, has taken to arresting Christians who gather to worship in their own homes. They're up to 1,800 now...

The Global War

• John Negroponte has told Time that several al-Qaeda detainees will remain in CIA custody so long as the war on terror continues.

• Al-Qaeda has little in the way of state-sponsorship these days, sayeth StrategyPage. Religious 'charities' in Syria and Sudan are no substitute, and al-Qaeda's relationship with Iran is troubled.

• Ayman al-Zawahiri has released another tape. Besides the usual promised slaughter, he heaps praise on Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which is very interesting in light of the numerous reports of Zarqawi being demoted and chastised by Zawahiri.

• A 30-year veteran of French intelligence has written a great analysis of the Muslim Brotherhood (PDF). They are, in his words, 'the only transnational actor capable of managing and turning the
  political and social differences of the Muslim world to its advantage.'

• Google News is including the Specially Designated Global Terrorist group, al-Manar (the propaganda wing of Hezbollah), as a news source.

• Al-Qaeda sees universities as prime recruiting grounds. Recruiters are targeting students and faculty for technical expertise.

And finally,

• A 55 year-old Italian porn star (who is, despite what that photo may lead you to believe, a woman) has offered to rub belly-buttons with al-Qaeda chief and international playboy Osama bin Laden.

• Kashmir is expecting an increase in tourism.

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