Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are given by Matt 'Colt' of Eurabian Times.
TOP TOPICS
- The Taliban has had a rough month, losing around 400 killed or captured. About 1,000 Taliban crossed in to Afghanistan for an offensive against coalition forces, but Western troops working with local forces have been tracking and ambushing them.
- There are reports that Pakistan will pull its troops out of the North West Frontier Province and recognise the Taliban government. AKI reports that the U.S. has urged an extended military operation along the lines of Tora Bora, but Pakistan is apparently taking the 'pragmatic' option'. Unsurprisingly, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal are pushing for just that.
- Aid agencies and Darfur rebels say that Sudanese military and Arab militias attacked and looted a village in north Darfur, in violation of a peace deal signed only a few weeks ago. Perhaps little wonder, then, that the Sudanese government has tightened restrictions on press access to Darfur. The African Union says the Sudanese government must allow a UN peacekeeper force in Darfur before the rainy seasons begins. Sudan has refused to let the UN allow a team to enter the country to plan for a peacekeeping force.
- Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, aka Abu Musab al-Suri, a Syrian ideologue behind much of al-Qaeda's strategy, was handed over to the U.S. two months ago by Pakistani officials. The architect of the war on the West outlined how small cells of isolated could wage war against us. The WaPo article is worth reading in full.
- Egypt says that the terrorists who killed 20-24 people in Dahab were trained by palestinian terrorists in Gaza. Egyptian forces also killed seven terrorists and arrested 22 more in the Sinai, seizing TNT, land mines and jihad paraphenalia. While Egypt didn't name a specific terror faction, senior PA intelligence officers say that disenchanted Hamas members have joined al-Qaeda's Gaza infrastructure. Al-Qaeda in Palestine has claimed responsibility for the near-assassination of a senior Fatah/PA intelligence chief in Gaza. Tareq Abu Rajab was seriously wounded when his elevator was blown up. A roadside bomb was placed outside the house of Rashid Abu Shbak, also of Gaza. The bomb was found before Shbak - school bus bomber and father of the mortars - drove past it. An Egyptian expert on Islamic radicalism says that al-Qaeda are trying to build a Gaza-Sinai-Amman network. Little wonder Jordan is concerned about the consequences of the proposed Israeli retreat and wants the U.S. to reject it.
Other Topics Today Include: more Iran incentives; Tehran U protests; Russia will supply SAMs to Iran; Shihab-3 test; Egypt offers troops for Gaza; 1,000 Fatah join Hamas; Jordan worried about jihad threat; Hezbollah won't join Lebanese army; Marines may be court-martialed; Europe pays $50m for hostages in Iraq; Saudi justice shake-up; U.S. hunts Hezbollah cells; Malvo says planned to slaughter children; gang war in south America; Brits nab A-Q team planning Iraq attacks; Turkish judge gunned down; Swiss spy protects erstwhile terror target; Kurd group claims Istanbul airport fire; Russian army gets an upgrade; Chechen Sufiism revival; new Chechen offensive?; Pakistan politician says gov't arming Taliban; Srinagar suicide bombing leaves soldier dead; China would go to war for oil!; bombmaker found with Bali-type blasting caps; JI have chem/bio weapon know-how; Morocco's nice Islamist party; more Niger Delta unrest; Tuaregs in Mali seize army camps; and much more.
Iran
- Days after Secretary Rice told Arab media that Iran has a role to play in stabilising Iraq, ahead of planned talks between the U.S. and Iran, the White House has pulled out of the talks.
- The world economy would be able to continue without Iranian oil exports, according to the U.S. Energy Secretary. Sam Bodman told reporters he thought Iran closing down their oil facilities is very unlikely, due to their dependence on petrodollars (soon to switch to petroeuros, BTW).
- Iran is willing to give up uranium enrichment for several years. Or they won't. Or they might do go with the Russian plan. Whichever it is, the UNSC's permanent five members - plus Germany - are discussing further incentives for Iran. The proposals involve dropping the prospect of military action and rewarding good behaviour. Germany has a bright idea: let Iran enrich uranium.
- Tehran University campuses have erupted in protests against government restrictions, in solidarity with other protesting universities.
- Melanie Phillips traces That Iranian Badge story from start to finish - which is, in sum, that Iran won't be forcing non-Muslims to wear specific clothing.
- Iran has closed down a newspaper, and arrested its chief editor and a cartoonist, after it ran a cartoon depicting Azeris as stupid cockroaches. Azeris marched in several parts of the country, throwing stones in some instances. An Iranian official decried supposed foreign attempts to divide the country, telling the press that 'Our nation is vigilant and hates the United States'.
- Russia has reiterated its intention to sell Iran 29 Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missiles for $700 million. The sale comes despite U.S. pressure to halt arms exports to Iran.
- Doomsday luminary Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has announced that Iran has mastered the nuclear fuel cycle 'from zero to 100'. He also made the customary threat against the West should any military attempt be made to prevent their acquiring nuclear weapons.
- The IRGC has opened another suicide bomber garrison. A government terrorist recruiter said that over 55,000 volunteers have registered thus far.
- Iran has test-fired another Shihab-3 missile, but the test was only 'partly successful'. No details on what went wrong.
- Hawkish John Bolton has said that, should the mullahs surrender their nuclear weapons program, they could stay in power and improve ties with the United States along the lines of Libya's deal.
The Middle East
- Egyptian mediators have privately proposed stationing Egyptian troops in Gaza to maintain order, following increasingly bloody clashes between Hamas and Fatah. Both factions are considering the plan.
- Mahmoud Abbas has given factions 10 days to agree to recognize a plan for Israel to retreat to the 1967 lines - a plan framed by imprisoned terrorists in an Israeli jail. If factions - Hamas being first amongst them - do not endorse the plan, Abbas will hold a referendum in 40 days time.
- Serge Brammertz, leading UN investigator in to the Hariri killing, says he is almost certain that two bombs were used - one underground, with a follow-up truck bomb.
- Aware of the way the winds are blowing, 1,000 members of Fatah have switched teams and joined Hamas.
- The IDF chief of staff says terrorists have moved 6.5 tons of TNT, RPGs and rockets in to Israel through the Sinai.
- An Iraqi al-Qaeda terrorist has been arrested in Jordan, working as a customs official at the Jordan-Iraq border. Ziyad Khalaf Karbouli admitted that he had kidnapped and murdered a Jordanian truck driver, as well as kidnapping two Moroccan citizens and turning them over to another A-Q terrorist. Jordanian sources described Karbouli as a a top Zarqawi lieutenant.
- Egyptian authorities are preparing for unrest following a crackdown on democracy activists, including several bloggers. Alaa and Droubi are still being held. Al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya - the so-called Arab Fox News (not Arab CNN, natch) - have refused to run commercials in support of democratic actvists in Egypt.
- It isn't just democrats planning to march in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood has announced its intention to challenge government bans on their rallies. The Brotherhood has recently been demonstrating in support of Egyptian judges in favour of a more independent judiciary.
- The CSM looks at the increasing radicalism of Bedouin living in northern Sinai. The article tends to blame economic deprivation, though the Egyptian government says it has spent $4.5 billion on Sinai infrastructure in the last quarter century. I'd hazard a guess a large proportion of that went on infrastructure on and around the 'Red Sea Riviera'.
- A Syrian minister says that, unless Israel agrees to talks on the Golan Heights, Syria will carry out 'resistance' attacks.
- Nibras Kazimi looks at the Islamist threat to Jordan. Kazimi notes that radical Muslims in Jordan are somewhat jaded by the politicisation of both Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, and may thus turn to al-Qaeda. Jordanian sources say they have already thwarted attacks on embassies and tourists. FWIW, that disenchantment probably won't last long - with attacks on Jordan already thwarted and recruitment of Jordanians, Hamas will likely demonstrate their radicalism soon. Related: Jordan parliament speaker accuses Iran of destabilising the country.
- Lebanon's PIJ leader was killed and his brother seriously wounded after a bomb wired to his car exploded. The wounded man, Mahmoud Majzoub, also a PIJ leader, survived an Israeli attempt on his life in 1998.
- The U.S. wants Lebanese help fighting al-Qaeda in that country. The U.S. and Lebanon and discussing proposals to train Lebanese soldiers to fight Islamic terrorists.
- An Israeli undercover unit had to be rescued by troops after they were discovered. The team had arrested an Islamic Jihad terrorist (released after 20 months of a 20 year sentence) before their car was surrounded by thousands of locals. Four Arabs were killed and 35 wounded in the clashes.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has reiterated his opposition to integrating the Shia terror group in to the Lebanese Army. Fatah al-Intifada, a Syrian-backed terror gang, has demanded the same rights as Hezbollah. Fatah al-Intifada killed a Lebanese soldier during a gunbattle last week.
- Israel has decided to provide Mahmoud Abbas' bodyguards with weapons and ammo.
- A Syrian military magistrate has asked Interpol to assist them in arresting Lebanese MP Walid Jumblatt. Syria, still apparently not used to Lebanese independence, had previously demanded Beirut turn Jumblatt over to Syria to face trial. Jumblatt had called for regime change in Syria.
- Egypt has arrested three palestinians for smuggling a bomb in to the country from Gaza. They intended to sell it to people in Sanaa, something of a hub of radicalism in Sinai.
Iraq and the Gulf
- How are al-Qaeda doing in Iraq? The network has suffered losses of effective personnel, has lost the support of most Sunni tribes (and faces the wrath of several) and several insurgent groups have entered talks with the Iraqi government. That said, there are numerous successful attacks, the network provides the bulk of jihadi propaganda made 'in theatre' and Zarqawi remains at large.
- In Ramadi, at least, it sounds like al-Qaeda are doing better than elsewhere. With a large proportion of the attacks in Iraq taking place in and around Ramadi, some soldiers said they didn't have enough men to do the job and hold ground.
- A dozen Marines may be court-martialed for killing Iraqi civilians.
- The Times reports that France, Italy and Germany gave terrorists in Iraq a combined total of $50 million for the release of hostages. One of the groups to benefit from the payouts was the group that kidnapped Ken Bigley.
- The Saudi religious police - the infamous Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice - will not be allowed to interrogate or punish those breaking Islamic law. A newspaper ad in several Saudi dailies says that their role will simply be to take them in to Saudi police custody. More on Saudi 'law enforcement': a system of new courts is to be set up to deal with specific issues, ie, family law, traffic violations, etc.
- One of Saddam's nephews has been arrested in Beirut. Bashar Sabawia al-Tikriti was named by the U.S. State Department as having funded terrorists in Iraq.
- British sources say that the amount of weapons in the six countries neighbouring Iran is three times what it was in March 2003. Patriot missiles have been deployed around oil facilities.
- Yemen's foreign minister discusses his government's concerns with the apparent al-Qaeda foothold just across the water in Somalia.
- Three Pakistanis have been arrested near Basra, in possession of large quantities of explosives and weapons. They crossed in to Iraq from Iran.
The Americas
- The FBI and other domestic law enforcement are focusing increasingly on Hezbollah. With Iran threatening to strike 'everywhere', the FBI are concerned about the prospect of Hezbollah activating sleeper cells. A dozen Hezbollah terrorists have been identified in New York already. Authorities are also paying more attention to the Iranian Mission at the UN - in several instances, Iranian staff have been expelled for casing potential targets. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's deputy chief says it would not jump to Iran's defence if the United States were to attack Iran. Naim Kassem said Hezbollah would only get involved if conflict spread to Lebanon. Presumably, Hezbollah has terrorist cells in the West for a more benign purpose.
- Shahawar Matin Siraj has been convicted in a New York court of plotting to blow up the subway. The Pakistani immigrant faces a maximum jail term of life imprisonment.
- One of Sami al-Arian's fellow non-terrorists, Sameeh Hammoudeh, has been deported to Ramallah. The acquitted non-terrorist was acquitted of all charges of funding Islamic Jihad.
- Lee Malvo has testified that he and John Allen Mohammed had planned a wave of terror attacks in Washington D.C., including bombings of schools, school buses and children's hospitals. Malvo says that Mohammed planned to indoctrinate and train 140 homeless people in a Canada compound to carry out similar attacks across the United States.
- The wife of a security officer of Morocco's New York consulate was discovered videotaping a Consolidated Edison facility, drawing the attention of two police officers. The employee said that his wife was new to the United States. Police reviewed the tape and found the couple had visited the WTC site, the Statue of Liberty, a museum and the powerplant.
- A Canadian judge has imposed the harshest bail conditions in Canadian legal history on a suspected al-Qaeda terrorist. Mohamed Harkat has been tagged, his communications are monitored, he can only leave his home 12 hours a week and then only be within a specific area. Harkat was arrested in 2002.
- 81% of Detroit Muslims believe Sharia law should be the law of the land in Muslim countries.
- Two sky marshals have been cleared of wrongfully killing a mentally ill man on an aeroplane who claimed to have a bomb. Mr Alpizar was killed at Miami Airport in December 2005.
- German magazine Spiegel looks at the rise of organised crime in South America, focusing on the Red Command of Sao Paulo's favelas and others like them. Potentially, these increase in gang crime could reverse the leftward shift of the continent.
- U.S. law enforcement has named a Dearborn restaurant chain owner as a member of Hezbollah. Talal Chahine and his wife are accused of concealing $16 million plus in cash recieved by their business. The federal indictment said that Chahine has 'connections at the highest levels' of Hezbollah. Chahine is currently in Lebanon, and his wife has been released on bail (passport surrendered).
- Minnesotan Keith Ellison may be the first Muslim in Congress.
- Mexican president Vincente Fox says that walls won't fix the immigration problem. Fox suggested closer U.S.-Mexican ties to improve the well-being of citizens of both countries.
- U.S. lawmakers are calling for an investigation in to allegations that Homeland Security and Customs/Borders have been tipping off Mexican government officials as to the whereabouts of Minutemen patrols. The Border Patrol has denied the allegations.
Europe
- British police, working with MI5, have arrested 8 people for plotting terrorist attacks in Iraq. One of the men, Tahir Nasuf, was listed by the U.S. as a terrorist in February of this year. The charity he worked for - Sanabel Relief Agency - was listed as a financier of the A-Q linked Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. The Brits believe they thwarted a series of suicide attacks on Western forces in Iraq. The government has begun deportation procedures so they can never hurt anyone again.
- WND has an article about Philippe Karsenty, who has been riding France 2 over the Mohammed al-Dura affair for years, as well as the French media in general. For instance, he showed footage of rioters in last year's urban meltdown shouting "Sarkozy, dirty Jew!", with the caption on the news changed to "Sarkozy, fascist!".
- Following the murder of a Turkish judge and the wounding of four other officials, Turkish authorities have blamed a criminal organisation apparently headed by a retired general. The Patriotic Forces Joint Power Movement is described as 'an illegal organization that attempts to create chaos in the country '. Turkish authorities say they've been spying on senior Turkish officiers and officials for several months. Jamestown looks at the possible Islamist aspect, and the attack's potential for inspiring further killings.
- Ayaan Hirsi Ali is moving to the United States, following revelations about her asylum claims. The international press has slammed the Dutch government.
- Veterans of jihad in Iraq are returning to Europe to establish cells with which to carry out attacks on European soil. That's the word from the head of French domestic intelligence, Pierre de Bousquet, and from Spanish judge Baltazar Garzon.
- German domestic intelligence believe there are 32,100 Islamic extremists in the country, of whom 300 are Hamas and 900 are Hezbollah. The total is an increase of about 300 from 2004. A German government report also says there has been an increase in neo-Nazi groups, with 4,100 groups up from 3,800, and more violent Nazis - 10,400 up from 10,000. Overall, however, there has been a drop from 40,700 to 39,000.
- A member of Swiss intelligence assigned to spy on Islamic terrorists has switched teams, and is hiding in Egypt. Claude Covassi, a Muslim convert, told newspapers his superiors were on a vendetta against a suspected terrorist.
- EU advocate Valéry Giscard d'Estaing says the constitution needs a second chance following the rejection of the document in France and Holland.
- Fjordman makes it clear just how bad things are in Sweden.
- The U.S. is proposing a ballistic missile defence system in central Europe, which has the Russians displeased. Russia says that installing a system capable of preventing a nuclear attack on Western Europe would have 'negative impact on the whole Euro-Atlantic security system'.
- After Montenegro's decision to break away from Serbia, the stage is set in Europe for further separatist agitation.
- A British court has heard recordings of conversations between two 'alleged' terrorists, discussing how they would blow up the Ministry of Sound nightclub in London. They are also heard wondering out loud whether they are being bugged, before concluding that they aren't. Heh.
- Seven political alliances in the European Parliament have issued a joint request for visas for Hamas 'politicians' to visit the EU. How do they intend to get around inviting members of a terrorist group to countries that bar them entry? Invite them to the EU rather than any member state. The move wasn't exactly fringe either - it includes the Christian Democrats, Socialists, Liberals and United Left.
- The Kurdish Freedom Falcons claimed responsibility for a massive fire at Istanbul airport. The Falcons have killed Westerners and targeted the Turkish tourist industry in previous attacks. The PKK denies links to the group.
- A Greek air force pilot was killed when two F-16s - one Turkish, one Greek - collided over the Aegean Sea. Turkish and Greek warplanes often dogfight - without firing on their opposites - over the disputed sea.
- Remember the Burger King jihad? The ice cream top that looked like Allah in Arabic? The British Muslim who brought this atrocity to media attention writes about the love of not letting anyone disrespect God, and his intention to wage jihad and bring Britain down.
- Did 'moderate' Islamic leader Inayat Bungawala tell LGF 'I look forward to the day when you pigs get your throats cut....'? Maybe(Bumped)&only. Bungawala says Zionists are playing tricks...
Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia
- Here's a disturbing report on how Vladimir Putin's policies echo the opinions of a shadowy group of KGB officers. The group favour an 'elitist democracy', in which only a select few are entitled to vote.
- Said group also favoured reforming the moribund Russian army. Strategy Page has a good overview of the Russian army as it stands today, and the changes and procurements that are finally being made. Unfortunately, most of the $11 billion investment is going on ICBMs and nuke-carrying submarines.
- Why 'unfortunately'? Well, if present trends continue, Russia will have a Muslim majority by 2050. With a rising China with an eye on the resources in depopulated Siberia, and the predictable unrest of the next few decades, more nukes in Russia probably isn't in everyone's interest.
- Sufiism is experiencing a revival in Chechnya, particularly amongst pro-Russian Chechen militia and soldiers. If it continues without harassment, it may herald a change in Russian policy towards Chechen culture unchanged since the tsars.
- With 11 soldiers and policemen killed in Chechnya in the past week, Russian officials are speculating that the Chechen groups are mobilising for the summer. Russian forces also disarmed an IED.
- A Chechen gunman has been arrested near Moscow. There isn't any indication an attack was being prepared.
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh
- The chief of a left-wing nationalist party in Pakistan has accused the government of arming the Taliban. Awami National Party head Asfandyar Wali Khan said Pakistani authorities and agencies are involved in the insurgency in Afghanistan.
- NGOs in Sri Lanka are pulling out of the east of the country, due to three attempts to kill aid workers. The Tamil Tigers have denied involvement in the hand grenade attacks.
- A fair few clerics in Kabul are encouraging young men to join the Taliban.
- British infantry in Afghanistan have fired their first shots in anger at Taliban. A British Apache supporting French special forces destroyed a disabled French vehicle. British Apaches have been providing fire support for French SF working with Afghan forces.
- A senior al-Qaeda terrorist is financing his organisation by kidnapping Christian children and selling them in to slavery. The Lashkar-i-Toiba front sold unknown numbers of young boys to paedophiles.
- A suicide car bomber killed a soldier and wounded 19 others when he attacked an army truck in Srinagar, the capital of Kashmir, ahead of a visit from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Hezbul Mujahedeen have claimed responsibility.
- An engine on a British C-130 carrying the new ambassador caught fire in Afghanistan whilst landing. Fortunately, all passengers and crew evacuated before the transport burst in to flames.
- The insurgency in Balochistan has taken to targeting key infrastructure in the region. Gas pipelines, almost entirely unguarded, were the favourite, but recent attacks on gas production sites and railways suggest a trend towards higher value targets. Meanwhile, the Balochistan home minister says there are no Taliban or al-Qaeda in the province.
- An Afghan intelligence official has been arrested in Pakistan, in an Afghan refugee camp. Also arrested were three other Afghans (one of whom a former governer of Kandahar), and two Pakistani gun-runners. The intelligence official is accused of trying to recruit Afghans for subversive activities in Quetta.
- A Pakistani anti-terrorism court has sentenced four men to death, and three men to life in prison, for involvement in a suicide attack against the Pakistani prime minister in 2004. Eight people were killed in the attack, but the prime minister was unharmed.
Far East & South East Asia
- China's overtures to Yemen provides a glimpse of Chinese ambitions in the wider Middle East.
- A new report suggests that China would indeed go to war for energy. Two heavy armour groups have been assembled to seize Kazakhstan in the event that their oil supply there is threatened.
- Abdul Aziz, on trial for the 2005 Bali bombing, has apologised for the attack. 20 people were killed when JI suicide bombers struck three restaurants.
- A threat of unknown credibility has been made against the U.S. embassy in Japan. The embassy advises all U.S. citizens in the country to remain cautious.
- Muslim terrorists killed two policemen and wounded dozens of civilians in several more attacks in southern Thailand.
- East Timor is seeing further violence, with 600 soldiers on strike trading fire with the remaining 800. Australian commandoes have taken control of the Dili airport, and a further 1,300 Aussie troops (plus contingents from Malaysia, New Zealand and Portugal) are en route. Several people have been killed in recent clashes, and many wounded.
- Indonesia's top police chief says that Noordin Top will not attempt to flee the country because the region's police are cooperating in the hunt for the man.
- Rohan Gunaratna says that Jemaah Islamiyah terrorists have know-how about chemical and biological weapons, probably originating with al-Qaeda experiments in Afghanistan. He also said that, for now, JI is using the Internet for recruitment and propaganda purposes and has not launched any cyber attacks.
- Filipino police have arrested a terrorist with several bags of TNT and other bombmaking equipment, including blasting caps identical to those used in the Bali 2002 bombing and the Rizal Day bombings in Manila in 2000. Police are investigating a possible connection to JI.
- Abu Sayyaf have killed four Filipino Marines in two days. A six-day suspension of military operations gave the terrorists an advantage, according to a military spokesman.
- Willy Lam looks at the large-scale personnel changes across China within the Party.
Africa
- The GSPC has released a new speech from Sheikh Abu Hassan Rashid, describing Algeria's reconciliation campaign as the usual infidel trickery.
- As the death toll mounts - 48 killed just last night - here's a look at how Somalia's collection of shifting alliances of murderous thugs has shifted again.
- Morocco has an 'acceptable' Islamist political party - acceptable, in that the United States is giving the Party of Justice and Development assistance and training. A recent poll found 47% of the Moroccan electorate were leaning towards the PJD.
- Further Tuareg unrest in Mali - rebel Tuaregs have seized two army camps in northern Mali.
- Several foreigners have been arrested in the 'Democratic' 'Republic' of Congo for involvement in an alleged coup. The men are mostly from security companies, training Congolese police and soldiers.
- Attempts to break up the various Niger Delta gangs stealing oil have been largely unsuccessful. Armed gangs have taken to robbing oil facilities on pay day.
The Global War
- Al-Qaeda strategists have identified a need for 'semi-conventional' jihadi forces, larger groups of mujahideen capable of taking control of urban areas. Given how well the jihadis fare in a stand-up fight against Western - and, increasingly, Iraqi and Afghan - forces...
- A senior al-Qaeda ideologist has written a new document titled, Why I Love Usama bin Laden. The slaughter of innocents on 9/11 apparently cured a humiliation-triggered malaise amongst Muslims. Usama has shown the way out of that rut through suicide terrorism.
- Osama's latest tape claims that Zacarias Moussaoui had nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks. The galavanting Saudi dissident has been spotted in Pakistan near the Afghan border. Pakistani officials noted that his newest tape was probably recorded only a couple of weeks ago, placing him closer to civilisation than previously thought (for north-western Pakistan, I guess). The CT blog has interesting analysis of bin Laden's supposed attempt to reassert himself.
- The U.S. has indicated that the Israelis will not be allowed to install their own electronics in the F-35s they plan to buy. This has prompted Israel to consider withdrawing from the deal.
No, seriously...
- Free speech crusaders at the ACLU are considering proposals banning ACLU board members from criticising the group's policies and internal administration.
- Cash-strapped Hamas have turned to auctioning dead terrorists' clothes. Sheik Sallah Shehada's jacket was eventually bought for 3,000 Jordanian dinars, a little over US$4000.
- This is pretty neat. With UAVs so gosh-darned expensive, the U.S. is considering using airships to monitor insurgents in Iraq. DoD has held a competition, and the choice is between Lockheed Martin and a small Californian firm, Worldwide Aeros.
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The AP paints a somewhat different picture of who actually did the pullout in the the Iran/US direct talks
than the Guardian does.
Does anyone find this suprising?
Pakistan recognizing a Taliban government in the NW frontier provinces works for us all - but ONLY if they recognize it as independent.
[1] Those electoral seats in Pakistan's system disappear. Islamist political influence in Pakistan shrinks with them.
[2] The fear of having the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan used to foment trouble in Pakistan disappears (though they still have the Baluchis to worry about), removing much of the impetus for seeing Afghanistan as important to Pakistan's security. and therefore, much of the impetus for the ISI's continued involvement there.
[3] If US forces head in to an independent government and start bombing/shooting people, it isn't Pakistani territory any more. They'll scream for help, of course, at which point the Pakistani Army says "no way we're taking the Americans on!" and the Islamists learn that getting what you thought you wanted can hurt.
[4[ Afghanistan's problems stem from many sources, but the Pakistani training ground and safe haven along a long, inhospitable border means Taliban death squads forever unless it's addressed. And as long as it's Pakistani territory, it can't be because they were allowed to develop nukes.
I say, make the declaration of independence and recognize the Taliban government. Then we can just go get the fascist little barbarians.
On the other hand, if what we get is essentially a recognized state within a state under the protection of Pakistan's nuclear umbrella, then Iran isn't the only clock ticking toward nuclear war (though it may be ticking faster) and the probability of a nuclear Islamic War starts rising fast as a long-term likely outcome for where we're all headed.
I totally agree with JK's analysis. A fully independent Waziristan would be a totally unexpected and yet welcome solution to the political problems threatening situation in Afghanistan. It would be a move that cut a seemingly impossible Gordian knot, and the only big question is whether Musharref could successfully pull it off and sell it to the general Pakistani public. I can just see in my head you the government in Afghanistan declare war on Warizistan! Who could argue Afghanistan didn't have a legitimate complaint?
On the other hand, the defeat of Pakistan in Wazaristan and the withdraw of forces from it, while still recognizing it as an autonomous portion of Pakistan represents nearly the worst case scenario. It's a open admission that they can't militarily control the Taliban, and they can't politically abandon them. As far as I'm concerned, that makes our position in Afghanistan totally untenable. You can't expect to win a war in which the enemies bases, safe havens, depots, and training grounds are immune to attack. Afghanistan would be, as I've feared it might become for some time now, Vietnam all over again.
On a related note, what does Pakistan's failure in Warizistan say about there real capabilities in the event of conflict with India?
The only problem I have with this scenario is the possibility of the US getting sucked into a conventional ground war in the region. I dont think the Bush administration is foolish enough to try putting a big footprint in the tribal belt, but after 08 its a different ballgame. I've been afraid for a while that the conveniant Democratic talking point about 'the real war' against 'the real enemy' in the Aghani/Pakistani tribal belt could someday trap a Democratic president into moving large numbers of troops into the area for political purposes. In other words repeating the Soviet mistakes in Afhanistan. Conceivably a Republican could make the same mistake.
Now if Pakistan washes its hands and essentially gives us carte blanche to use special forces, UAVs, and other standoff weapons to make life miserable for the Taliban and their allies, so much the better. But the political advantage of being seen as hawkish on Al Qaeda provides a dangerous lure. We do not want to try and hold ground in that place.
An independent NW Frontier? What about "strategic depth"? What about the "Balkinization" of Pakistan? Is Pakistan going to concede Kashmir while feeling generous?
I can't believe that would happen. I think Musharraf would more likely give up on the Northwest, return it to local control and do nothing as long as the Pashtuns don't declare their independence too loudly.
The Baluchi/Wasiri region is only the tip of the iceberg.
There are 1.3 billion Muslims in the world. If even one in a thousand consents to the Jihadi message (that's a low estimate), it's 1.3 million. We will not change their minds except by killing them.
The Third Great Jihad is underway.
Resistance to this Jihad will grow as Europeans awake to the threat, as -- increasingly -- North Americans awake to the threat, as Asians awake to the threat. With a little luck, it won't be stopped at the gates of Vienna this time.
Surely, it's an ugly thought, killing so many. Yet, Pol Pot killed more in a couple years. Often only because they wore glasses, identifying them as "intellectuals". Stalin killed that many in a single winter in the Ukraine. Napoleon killed more--of his own troops --in a single fall campaign into Russia.
Is the survival of Western Civilization worth that many lives? The human-population-reduction -advocates ought to jump at the chance.
Actually, I adhere to the Hindu view that there are only so many souls that have attained human status -- or more -- and that many of the teeming masses around us have only rat or chipmunk or cockroach or dogflea souls. Consider the implications of sending them back around to develop some more -- enlightenment.
Western Civilization hangs in the balance. Our ruthlessness opposed to theirs will decide it.
Since the times of the Roman Empire, Civilization had to fight Barbarism, it is a constant in our world that hasn't changed yet: internally Laws are enacted, externally wars are carried out. Maybe during some years the situation was frozen, the attention was focused on Nationalsocialism and Socialism and some people dared to think this was over, but it isn't, especially considering advanced weapons.
Good to read your work, Colt!
"..I adhere to the Hindu view that there are only so many souls that have attained human status -- or more -- and that many of the teeming masses around us have only rat or chipmunk or cockroach or dogflea souls. Consider the implications of sending them back around to develop some more -- enlightenment..."
LOL. Somehow I find your explanation and adaptation of Hindu religion a little lacking. Weren't the Hindu a little more peaceful? Unless there is a secret armed Klingon Hindu Sect. One pictures a Hindu "Orkin Man Of The Soul" ridding the world of substandard spirits. "Your soul is of the rat! Stand and fight!" K'Plah!
There are 1.3 billion Muslims in the world. If even one in a thousand consents to the Jihadi message (that's a low estimate), it's 1.3 million. We will not change their minds except by killing them.
I have the strong impression that not one in a thousand muslims is going along there. Not one in ten thousand.
So it would seem reasonable like one of our top priorities should be to keep it that way. Don't kill one angry muslim in a way that gets ten thousand more mad at us.
One time my father got enthusiastic about a japanese beetle trap. It had a bait that attracted japanese beetles, and then they fell into a quart of water and drowned. He hung a couple on our fruit trees. I watched it at work. The fruit trees were covered with japanese beetles trying to get close to the bait. They were also busy having sex. I had an idea what kind of bait it was .... Sometimes I could see as many as a hundred beetles at a time flying onto our property from the neighbors, trying to get to our trap. I had to empty the trap four times a day because it kept filling up and the beetles would sit in the trap having sex on top of the pile of dead beetles and then fly off to lay their eggs. After awhile I estimated we were probably attracting beetles from all over the county. Our fruit trees were not particularly improved by the experience.
The next spring we got hundreds of starlings. They stick their beaks in the ground and pull out japanese beetle grubs that are eating the grass roots. The starlings got fat. I'm not sure our grass was improved by the whole experience either.
By the third year I persuaded my father not to put the traps out. The bait stayed in the utility closet, and sometimes there would be a dozen or two beetles crawling on the door trying to get in.
Muslims overwhelmingly reject the jihadi message at this point. Let's do what we can to keep it that way.
"LOL. Somehow I find your explanation and adaptation of Hindu religion a little lacking."
Yeah, that's an understatement. He sounds really eager to accumulate a bunch of karma in a fashion that every mainstream Hindu sect would greatly disapprove of. If they were born in human form, it stands to reason that they'd earned that fate and deserve some respect. You'd think to here him talking that he thinks his soul at least has always inhabited a human form. Hinduism generally has the opposite take on the situation - that rat, cockroach, or flea might well be grandma so show some respect.
I predict, that if he were right about the whole reincarnation thing, he's not going to be in human form in the next life with an attitude like that.
"Weren't the Hindu a little more peaceful?"
On the other hand, few religious myths annoy me as much as the myth that Eastern religions are more peaceful than Western ones. Their are plenty of violent Hindu sects both in the past and present. No Islamic separatist group has anything on the the Tamil Tigers.