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May 26, 2006Thursday Winds of War: May 26/06by Colt at May 26, 2006 6:18 PM
Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are given by Matt 'Colt' of Eurabian Times. TOP TOPICS
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Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know. Tracked: May 30, 2006 8:00 PM
Too good to be true from Low Earth Orbit
Excerpt: [source] There are reports that Pakistan will pull its troops out of the North West Frontier Province and recognise the...
Comments
#1 from celebrim at 9:20 pm on May 26, 2006
The AP paints a somewhat different picture of who actually did the pullout in the the Iran/US direct talks Does anyone find this suprising? Pakistan recognizing a Taliban government in the NW frontier provinces works for us all - but ONLY if they recognize it as independent. [1] Those electoral seats in Pakistan's system disappear. Islamist political influence in Pakistan shrinks with them. [2] The fear of having the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan used to foment trouble in Pakistan disappears (though they still have the Baluchis to worry about), removing much of the impetus for seeing Afghanistan as important to Pakistan's security. and therefore, much of the impetus for the ISI's continued involvement there. [3] If US forces head in to an independent government and start bombing/shooting people, it isn't Pakistani territory any more. They'll scream for help, of course, at which point the Pakistani Army says "no way we're taking the Americans on!" and the Islamists learn that getting what you thought you wanted can hurt. [4[ Afghanistan's problems stem from many sources, but the Pakistani training ground and safe haven along a long, inhospitable border means Taliban death squads forever unless it's addressed. And as long as it's Pakistani territory, it can't be because they were allowed to develop nukes. I say, make the declaration of independence and recognize the Taliban government. Then we can just go get the fascist little barbarians. On the other hand, if what we get is essentially a recognized state within a state under the protection of Pakistan's nuclear umbrella, then Iran isn't the only clock ticking toward nuclear war (though it may be ticking faster) and the probability of a nuclear Islamic War starts rising fast as a long-term likely outcome for where we're all headed.
#3 from celebrim at 10:41 pm on May 26, 2006
I totally agree with JK's analysis. A fully independent Waziristan would be a totally unexpected and yet welcome solution to the political problems threatening situation in Afghanistan. It would be a move that cut a seemingly impossible Gordian knot, and the only big question is whether Musharref could successfully pull it off and sell it to the general Pakistani public. I can just see in my head you the government in Afghanistan declare war on Warizistan! Who could argue Afghanistan didn't have a legitimate complaint? On the other hand, the defeat of Pakistan in Wazaristan and the withdraw of forces from it, while still recognizing it as an autonomous portion of Pakistan represents nearly the worst case scenario. It's a open admission that they can't militarily control the Taliban, and they can't politically abandon them. As far as I'm concerned, that makes our position in Afghanistan totally untenable. You can't expect to win a war in which the enemies bases, safe havens, depots, and training grounds are immune to attack. Afghanistan would be, as I've feared it might become for some time now, Vietnam all over again. On a related note, what does Pakistan's failure in Warizistan say about there real capabilities in the event of conflict with India?
#4 from Mark Buehner at 11:08 pm on May 26, 2006
The only problem I have with this scenario is the possibility of the US getting sucked into a conventional ground war in the region. I dont think the Bush administration is foolish enough to try putting a big footprint in the tribal belt, but after 08 its a different ballgame. I've been afraid for a while that the conveniant Democratic talking point about 'the real war' against 'the real enemy' in the Aghani/Pakistani tribal belt could someday trap a Democratic president into moving large numbers of troops into the area for political purposes. In other words repeating the Soviet mistakes in Afhanistan. Conceivably a Republican could make the same mistake. Now if Pakistan washes its hands and essentially gives us carte blanche to use special forces, UAVs, and other standoff weapons to make life miserable for the Taliban and their allies, so much the better. But the political advantage of being seen as hawkish on Al Qaeda provides a dangerous lure. We do not want to try and hold ground in that place.
#5 from PD Shaw at 11:10 pm on May 26, 2006
An independent NW Frontier? What about "strategic depth"? What about the "Balkinization" of Pakistan? Is Pakistan going to concede Kashmir while feeling generous? I can't believe that would happen. I think Musharraf would more likely give up on the Northwest, return it to local control and do nothing as long as the Pashtuns don't declare their independence too loudly.
#6 from Niccolo at 11:09 am on May 27, 2006
The Baluchi/Wasiri region is only the tip of the iceberg. There are 1.3 billion Muslims in the world. If even one in a thousand consents to the Jihadi message (that's a low estimate), it's 1.3 million. We will not change their minds except by killing them. The Third Great Jihad is underway. Resistance to this Jihad will grow as Europeans awake to the threat, as -- increasingly -- North Americans awake to the threat, as Asians awake to the threat. With a little luck, it won't be stopped at the gates of Vienna this time. Surely, it's an ugly thought, killing so many. Yet, Pol Pot killed more in a couple years. Often only because they wore glasses, identifying them as "intellectuals". Stalin killed that many in a single winter in the Ukraine. Napoleon killed more--of his own troops --in a single fall campaign into Russia. Is the survival of Western Civilization worth that many lives? The human-population-reduction -advocates ought to jump at the chance. Actually, I adhere to the Hindu view that there are only so many souls that have attained human status -- or more -- and that many of the teeming masses around us have only rat or chipmunk or cockroach or dogflea souls. Consider the implications of sending them back around to develop some more -- enlightenment. Western Civilization hangs in the balance. Our ruthlessness opposed to theirs will decide it.
#7 from J Aguilar at 2:06 pm on May 27, 2006
Since the times of the Roman Empire, Civilization had to fight Barbarism, it is a constant in our world that hasn't changed yet: internally Laws are enacted, externally wars are carried out. Maybe during some years the situation was frozen, the attention was focused on Nationalsocialism and Socialism and some people dared to think this was over, but it isn't, especially considering advanced weapons. Good to read your work, Colt! "..I adhere to the Hindu view that there are only so many souls that have attained human status -- or more -- and that many of the teeming masses around us have only rat or chipmunk or cockroach or dogflea souls. Consider the implications of sending them back around to develop some more -- enlightenment..." LOL. Somehow I find your explanation and adaptation of Hindu religion a little lacking. Weren't the Hindu a little more peaceful? Unless there is a secret armed Klingon Hindu Sect. One pictures a Hindu "Orkin Man Of The Soul" ridding the world of substandard spirits. "Your soul is of the rat! Stand and fight!" K'Plah!
#9 from J Thomas at 4:56 pm on May 27, 2006
There are 1.3 billion Muslims in the world. If even one in a thousand consents to the Jihadi message (that's a low estimate), it's 1.3 million. We will not change their minds except by killing them. I have the strong impression that not one in a thousand muslims is going along there. Not one in ten thousand. So it would seem reasonable like one of our top priorities should be to keep it that way. Don't kill one angry muslim in a way that gets ten thousand more mad at us. One time my father got enthusiastic about a japanese beetle trap. It had a bait that attracted japanese beetles, and then they fell into a quart of water and drowned. He hung a couple on our fruit trees. I watched it at work. The fruit trees were covered with japanese beetles trying to get close to the bait. They were also busy having sex. I had an idea what kind of bait it was .... Sometimes I could see as many as a hundred beetles at a time flying onto our property from the neighbors, trying to get to our trap. I had to empty the trap four times a day because it kept filling up and the beetles would sit in the trap having sex on top of the pile of dead beetles and then fly off to lay their eggs. After awhile I estimated we were probably attracting beetles from all over the county. Our fruit trees were not particularly improved by the experience. The next spring we got hundreds of starlings. They stick their beaks in the ground and pull out japanese beetle grubs that are eating the grass roots. The starlings got fat. I'm not sure our grass was improved by the whole experience either. By the third year I persuaded my father not to put the traps out. The bait stayed in the utility closet, and sometimes there would be a dozen or two beetles crawling on the door trying to get in. Muslims overwhelmingly reject the jihadi message at this point. Let's do what we can to keep it that way.
#10 from celebrim at 4:58 pm on May 27, 2006
"LOL. Somehow I find your explanation and adaptation of Hindu religion a little lacking." Yeah, that's an understatement. He sounds really eager to accumulate a bunch of karma in a fashion that every mainstream Hindu sect would greatly disapprove of. If they were born in human form, it stands to reason that they'd earned that fate and deserve some respect. You'd think to here him talking that he thinks his soul at least has always inhabited a human form. Hinduism generally has the opposite take on the situation - that rat, cockroach, or flea might well be grandma so show some respect. I predict, that if he were right about the whole reincarnation thing, he's not going to be in human form in the next life with an attitude like that. "Weren't the Hindu a little more peaceful?" On the other hand, few religious myths annoy me as much as the myth that Eastern religions are more peaceful than Western ones. Their are plenty of violent Hindu sects both in the past and present. No Islamic separatist group has anything on the the Tamil Tigers.
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