Friday Winds of War: June 02/06

Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are given by Matt 'Colt' of Eurabian Times.

TOP TOPICS

• U.S. Secretary of State Rice has said that the United States is willing to join multilateral talks with Iran, so long as it halts uranium enrichment. Hours later, a top Iranian diplomat said Iran would not take part in any talks preconditioned on halting enrichment, and that the West must resign itself to Iran's atomic plans. The P-5 plus Germany have agreed on a package of incentives and costs to put to Iran. No details yet, as there has been on official announcement. European officials say that the American shift is genuine, and not a ploy to show up the Iranian regime as a group of dangerous fanatics.

• A car accident involving a U.S. military truck in Kabul that left several Afghans dead led to city-wide riots, during which Afghan police and U.S. soldiers are said to have fired in to crowds. Bill Roggio comments from Kabul here and here. Jamestown also have a good piece on the Taliban's thinking behind the current offensive. Ahmed Rashid says that the violence demonstrated the widespread disillusionment of Afghans with the Western project to rebuild the country, and comments on the growing Taliban influence in the south. Rashid also notes that at least part of the problem is that many European countries who have contributed troops to the NATO mission - Italy, Spain, Holland, Germany, among others - are simply not there to carry out combat operations. Perhaps surprisingly, Canadian troops have been told that the Geneva conventions don't apply to Taliban or al-Qaeda captured on the battlefield.

• The Somali provisional cabinet says that al-Qaeda is recruiting in Mogadishu media reports recruits arriving in the country from all over the Islamic world. The foreign minister critised the U.S. for not doing more to thwart al-Qaeda activity in the war-torn country, beyond helping the 'anti-terrorism' militias. A U.S diplomat has been transferred from Somalia, following criticism of U.S. support for warlords. Those warlords and their 'anti-terrorism alliance' have thus far detained no terrorists - but they and the Islamic Courts militia have killed dozens of civilians in recent fighting.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran abuses dissidents; fusion research; Azeris arrested; more on Alaa and Kifaya; IDF ambushes Qassam team in Gaza; Hamas threatens U.S.; Lebanon wants help disarming palestinians; PKK-Turkish forces clash - two dead each; Haditha; Basra state of emergency; Canada's domestic war on terror; Venezuela bankrolls Bolivia gas nationalisation; more Paris unrest; jihad in Germany; Hamza violated immigration laws 25 years ago; Russia thwarts 'major attack'; two Hizb-ut-Tahrir arrested in Uzbekistan; LeT attack RSS HQ; Pakistan ends AQ Khan investigation; Taliban shifts to terrorism; seven Bangladeshi terrorists get the rope; MLF offers to hunt JI/ASG terrorists; Malays bust AQ cell; North Korea invites U.S. envoy; AU peacekeepers attacked; Mauritanians nab four GSPC; and much more.

Iran

• Learning from U.S. experiences in Iraq, Iran is said to be reviewing and altering its doctrine to combat an invasion. Predictably, the new plans call for a long-term, decentralised insurgency rather than traditional military confrontation.

• An Iranian dissident has described the horrific torture and sexual assault she suffered at the hands of Iranian security forces. The democracy activist was told to sign confessions or watch her children be burned alive - all for Islam and the rule of the clerics, according to one of the 'police'.

• Bahais are coming under attack from the religious authorities. Diplomats and Bahai exiles say that arrests of community leaders have increased, and more propaganda aimed at denigrating the Bahai faith have been published by government media.

• The Iranians have announced that their research in to nuclear fusion is progressing. Fusion has never been used for commercial nuclear energy, though research in to it has been carried out. However, fusion bombs are more powerful than simple fission bombs by several orders of magnitude.

• Spiegel magazine has a full interview with Ahmadinejad.

• As predicted, the non-aligned movement is aligning itself with Iran the mullahs' nuclear program.

• A Turkish investigation has uncovered Iranian companies exporting materials for Iran's nuclear program. The front companies imported various components - including missile guidance systems - before smuggling them over the border in to Iran.

• An analyst named Gareth Porter says Iran offered to cease funding for jihad groups in Israel and curb Hezbollah, as well as accept the Saudi 'peace plan' in 2003. In exchange, Iran wanted an end to sanctions and American acceptance of Iran as a regional power. Khamenei himself was apparently involved in the proposal.

• Some 80 Azeri activists have been arrested in Tehran. They were on their way to the parliament building to discuss recent tensions between the government and Azeri citizens. The arrested individuals include visitors from Azerbaijan.

The Middle East

• Two members of the Egyptian reform group 'Kifaya' (Enough) have alleged brutal torture and sexual abuse by Egyptian police. The men were tied, beaten and one of them sodomised with a cardboard tube. Egyptian blogger Alaa Seif al Islam, a member of the Kifaya movement, will be kept in prison for another 15 days following the extension of his arrest order.

• The Egyptians are also maintaining their pressure on the Islamists, arresting 28 Muslim Brothers during chamber of commerce elections.

• Israeli forces infiltrated about three kilometres in to Gaza to ambush an Islamic Jihad Qassam team in the first IDF ground operation in Gaza since the withdrawal's completion. Four terrorists were killed and eight wounded in the ambush, supported by helicopter fire.

• Moderate terrorist Mahmoud Abbas has appointed Mahmoud Damra, aka Abu Awad, to head his new personal security force - sponsored by the U.S. and Britain, and armed by Israeli. Damra is on Israel's most wanted list for suicide attacks, roadside bombings and shootings.

• Moderate Hamas are still up to their elbows in terrorism, playing a role in the Qassam rocket attacks on Israeli civilians around Gaza. Two rockets recently struck houses near the home of new Defence Minister Amir Peretz. Hamas's buddies in Islamic Jihad fired a Katyusha-based rocket in to Israel.

• In what AP calls 'tough rhetoric', a leading Hamas terrorist threatened U.S. citizens and said the deaths of U.S. soldiers in Iraq fill him with joy. Abu Samhadana and his Popular Resistance Committees - a coalition of killers from various factions - murdered three Americans in Gaza in 2003, and have killed numerous Israelis. Not wanting to be outdone, Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh said the U.S. is an enemy of Islam, in a sign of increasing radicalisation within Hamas.

• While there is unity within the Israeli government about the necessity for further retreat, there are a number of important people with differing ideas about how. Olmert wants a single expulsion, Peres wants expulsion by stages, and the man who planned the Gaza expulsion wants to do it using financial incentives and without force.

• There's some fascinating information about the Jordanian operation to lure a top al-Qaeda terrorist from Iraq in to the benevolent arms of the GID.

• Lebanon wants assistance from Arab states in disarming palestinian terrorist groups in the country. Several Lebanese soldiers have been killed in clashes between the army and groups such as Fatah-Intifada and the PFLP-GC.

• Two Turkish soldiers and two PKK members were killed in a gunbattle in southeast Turkey. May has seen an increase in PKK attacks on security forces.

• Around a dozen people were wounded following a gas explosion in an Istanbul shooting range. Police believe a stray bullet nicked an electrical cable, sparking the explosion.

Iraq and the Gulf

• Allahpundit has a lot of links on the Haditha incident, with more here. In short, it looks pretty damn awful.

• Iraq's prime minister has declared a state of emergency in Basra. Shia factions vying for local control are thought to be behind the flare in violence, which left at least 140 dead in May - including 9 British soldiers. One faction has threatened Basra's oil production, and several are said to be behind murders of Sunni locals. Moqtada 'unfinished business' al-Sadr and his Mehdi army are thought involved in much of the unrest.

• Saudi terrorists are behind the latest attacks on British forces in southern Iraq, according to military sources. Commanders believe that the 'consensual environment' towards jihadists is leading to an increase in IED placement with local knowledge.

• U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad has emphasised the importance of talking to insurgents. Khalilzad also hinted strongly that full-scale internecine conflict could lead to U.S. withdrawal: '...they cannot count on the U.S. if the necessary compromises... are not made'.

• The Pentagon forsees a continuing insurgency in Sunni regions of Iraq for the rest of the year, but predict a wane in support and capability in early 2007.

• Iraqi Kurdistan is setting the standard for religious tolerance in the country, with Kurdish Muslims converting or reverting to Christianity in significant numbers - the vast majority of whom are not persecuted for it. To quote the Kurdish PM, 'I'd rather see a Muslim become Christian than to see him become a radical Muslim'.

• More good news: Iraq's GDP doubled from 2003-2004, and increased by double digits in 2005. Inflation and unemployment are falling steadily. The Iraqi dinar is getting stronger

The Americas

• A senior Canadian intelligence official has spokenly frankly about the CSIS's fight against terror. Jack Hooper, deputy director of operations, said that the number of target groups and individuals had stayed static since 1998, even as the threat increases.

• John Mohammed has been convicted of six counts of murder in a Maryland court. Mohammed has already been sentenced to death for a murder in Virginia. Mohammed and his terrorist protege terrorised the D.C. area with sniper fire, killing 10 and critically wounding three more.

• 75 Gitmo inmates are on a hunger strike. A U.S. Navy officer suggested the sudden rise (from 3 to 75) was an 'attention-getting' move, following an attack on guards by inmates. Lest we forget that the men held at Gitmo are dangerous.

• Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is bankrolling Bolivia's gas nationalisation project. Chavez has pledged $2 billion over the coming years.

• Brazil's culture minister has defened web hackers, describing them as 'counter-cultural militants'. Hackers fight against the 'the reactionary orthodoxy' 'to create permanent spaces of equality'. Gilberto Gil was quick to distinguish between hackers seeking to steal information, and the militants' campaign against The Man.

Europe

• The European Court of Justice has annulled an agreement between the E.U. and U.S. that required European airlines to transfer passenger details to the Department of Homeland Security. The court has given the parties until the end of September to come up with a new arrangement.

• Parisian 'suburbs' have seen more clashes with police in recent days. Police officers suffered light injuries during riots two nights running, in which cars were torched and firebombs thrown at public buildings.

• Belgium has appointed 13 investigative judges to preside over terrorism cases. The 13 will be distributed according to the number of cases being investigated in certain regions - Brussels tops the list with 4, Liège with 3, and Antwerp, Ghent and Bergen will get 2.

• Following a collision between two F-16s, one of Turkey, one of Greece, in which a Greek pilot was killed, the two countries have set up a hotline to avoid confrontation between the air forces over the disputed Aegean Sea. Incidentally, the Greek air force is titled the 'Hellenic Air Force' - cool, no?

• A German federal prosecutor says the country is sitting on a powder keg of jihadist sentiment. With the World Cup starting in a few days, the CT blog's Jeffrey Imm recommends that Germany be aware of the increasing ties between neo-Nazis and Muslim radicals, coalescing around Holocaust denial and hatred of Israel. Related: 75 European parliamentarians have signed a petition protesting Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit during the World Cup. That's 75 of 732 lawmakers - pitiful.

• Abu Hamza should have been deported 25 years ago, for breaking numerous immigration laws. The terrorist leader was a benefactor of Britain's longstanding Faustian pact with Islamic terrorists.

• A group of black separatists from 'Tribu-Ka' walked through a Jewish neighbourhood in Paris, threatening and intimidating local Jews. The men, who performed Nazi salutes and shouted 'Death to Jews!' were allowed to leave by police after running identity checks. Tribu-Ka was founded by a former Nation of Islam follower, and takes inspiration from French 'comic' Dieudonne Mbala Mbala. Tribu-Ka have had several run-ins with the Jewish Defence League and Betar.

• Three Basques with suspected links to ETA have been arrested in southern France.

• German intelligence illegally spied on journalists and recruited them as informants, according to a new report for a parliamentary commission. The German government has since demanded that the BND halt both activities.

• The Dutch interior minister has told the Dutch parliament that - within the law - the AIVD can tap the phones of Dutch journalists.

• An IISS expert says that there are about 1,000 European jihadis in Iraq, about 5-10% of the total number of foreign terrorists. The recruitment of British Muslims for terror abroad has led British security agencies to nip networks in the bud, making arrests as soon as there is enough evidence for a warrant.

Russia, Caucasus & Central Asia

• Around 1,000 Russian troops die every year, perhaps half of those in Chechnya. Of those, more soldiers kill themselves of are killed in accidents than in combat. The Russian army has also decided not to form a Military Police force. The proposed force was intended to deal with the extreme 'hazing' new recruits undergo - 'hazing' which account for many of those suicides and probably a few of those 'accidents'. The decision was based on the very small numbers of soldiers who come forward to report crimes, and thus only a few cases to investigate. Instead, Russia is relying on the nascent NCO corps to put things in order.

• Jamestown's invaluable Chechnya Brief is up. Included: Basayev tours north Caucasus; Kadyrov wants to chase rebels from neighbouring provinces; Zakaev gets a promotion; Alkhanov attends Strasbourg roundtable; appeal identifies Chechen 'concentration camps'; and the return of Russia's Gitmo inmates.

• Russian forces have thwarted what they called a 'major terrorist act' in the Chechen highlands. Two terrorists were killed when a bomb they were planting on railway tracks was apparently detonated by Russian fire, and nine others were captured. Arms and ammo were also seized.

• Russian Muslims are gathering in Moscow for a conference against extremism. With Muslims forming ~14% of Russia's population, and Islamist insurgencies in the Caucasus, a drift towards extremism could spell disaster. So hopefully I'm being paranoid when news of 'activists' from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Kuwait attending.

• Two Hizb-ut-Tahrir members have been arrested in Uzbekistan. Over 100 Uzbek Islamists are in prison for 'terrorist offences' and 'conspiracies against the government'.

Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

• Three heavily armed Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists were killed whilst trying to attack a nationalist political office.

• Pakistan has officially ended their investigation in to the AQ Khan network, and have reiterated that no foreign agencies will be allowed to interview him. This has, naturally, ticked off the United States, who believe Khan may be holding out. In particular, they suspect he may have more information concerning Iran's nuclear weapons program. For now, though, most of that off-tickedness is eminating from Congress, with the administration seemingly wary of demanding too much - good governance, hunting al-Qaeda and Taliban in the NWFP, crackdowns on anti-India groups, etc.

• A Pakistani MP, and a leading member of Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam, has called on Pakistanis to aid the Taliban in their war in Afghanistan.

• Taliban killers gunned down three Afghan aid workers and their driver, and a roadside bomb killed two local employees of an American firm - both attacks occurred in the north of the country. other attacks, 12 Afghan police were killed - and around 40 captured alive by the Taliban. The Taliban are reportedly shifting focus to target civilians and avoid contact with security forces.

• Two Hindu pilgrims were killed and seven wounded when three terrorists opened fire on them in the Pakistani province of Sindh. All nine were Pakistani citizens. Sindh is home to the vast majority of Pakistani Hindus.

• Unless checkpoints in northern Waziristan, local terrorists have pledged to increase suicide attacks against the army. The Taliban carried out its first car-bombing in Pakistani territory a few days earlier, killing two security personnel.

• 21 people were wounded in Srinagar when grenades were thrown in to a bus. Most of the wounded were tourists from Bengal, visiting the Kashmir capital. Elsewhere in Srinagar, Indian soldiers killed two suspected terrorists after a tip-off.

• Pakistan's interior minister has denied claims that Osama bin Laden is in the Upper Dir region of his country, following reported sightings last month. Aftab Sherpao blamed Afghan politicians for the 'irresponsible talk' - ABC News cited Pakistani officials for their story.

• Speakers at a human rights conference held in Lahore claimed that as many as 600 Pakistanis are forcibly converted to Islam every year. Pakistan has no laws banning forced conversions.

• The BBC talks to Lady Taliban, a leader of a radical Muslim women's group in Kashmir. Asiya Andrabi's Dukhtaran-e-Milat group has campaigned against cinemas, beauty parlours and the influence of 'Brahmin India'.

• Seven Bangladeshi terrorists have been sentenced to death by hanging for murdering two judges in November 2005. The seven include senior members of Jamaat-ul Mujahideen and Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh. Around 30 people were killed and 150 wounded in a series of attacks in the August-December period of 2005.

• The U.S. plans to sell Pakistan 130 Harpoon anti-ship missiles in a $370 million deal.

Far East & South East Asia

• East Timorese are eating grass, according to the Australian-born wife of President Xanana Gusmao. Gusmao has taken control of the army, stripping the unpopular prime minister of all authority related to dealing with the current crisis. Around 50,000 people have been displaced due to severe gang violence.

• Southern Thailand is still dealing with a vicious terror campaign, despite government claims of success against the networks responsible. Thus far, efforts against the terrorists has been haphazard, but there are signs of improvement.

• The Moro Islamic Liberation Front has pledged to hunt down 53 terrorists to demonstrate their willingness to end their 30-year war with the Phillipines. Most of the 53 are members of Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf.

• Malaysian police have arrested 12 men suspected of al-Qaeda ties planning attacks in the region. The 12 men - 10 Indonesian, two Malaysian - are members of the Indonesian 'Dar-ul Islam' group, who may have links to Abu Sayyaf. The two Malaysians were thought to have been providing lodgings and logistical support for the 10 foreigners. Firearms and bomb-making instructions were also seized. AKI has background on Malaysian terrorists, including the original Dar-ul Islam, whose members later founded Jemaah Islamiyah.

• North Korea has invited an American envoy to visit the country, in exchange for Washington committing itself to offering concessions for disarmament.

• The military junta in Burma is developing a respectable civilian party to take part in upcoming 'elections'. Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest has been extended for another year.

• Tamil Tigers kidnapped and murdered 13 labourers in eastern Sri Lanka. The workers were Sinhalese, prompting government claims that the LTTE is trying to provoke a Sinhalese backlash.

• The U.S. says it is 'deeply concerned' about the welfare of three children of a Muslim activist seized by Chinese authorities. The children belong to a leading activist of the Muslim Uighur minority. The children of the president of the Uighur American Association were arrested the day before a congressional delegation to China.

Africa

• With Ethiopia and Eritrea still unwilling to discuss their border dispute, bombs have started to go off in Ethiopia - 12 since January. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of a hand in the attacks.

• Mauritanian authorities have arrested four suspected terrorists. All four are Mauritanian citizens, thought to be members of the GSPC. They were allegedly behind attacks on Mauritanian troops, as well as involvement in the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Nairobi in 1998.

• Men with RPGs opened fire on a AU peacekeepers camp, leaving 5 soldiers wounded. Strategy Page points to a faction of the SLA, but Reuters notes that Janjaweed have attacked the camp several times.

• The United Nations will withdraw aid workers from Darfur unless their safety can be guaranteed. Meanwhile, Kofi Annan says it would take four months to organise a U.N. force for Darfur - assuming the Security Council approves it.

• About 300 convicted terrorists are on a hunger strike in Moroccan prisons. The 300 are mostly those convicted of involvement in the 2003 Casablanca bombings, which left 33 people dead.

• New satellite photos show the wholesale destruction of communities by the Zimbabwean government. Mugabe ordered the shanty town, home to some 30,000 people, obliterated so as to force the locals back to rural areas.

• South Africa is sponsoring peace talks between Burundi and the Hutu 'Forces for National Liberation' (FNL).

• A GSPC bombing has wounded two Algerian policemen about 30 miles from Algiers. A second bomb was defused

The Global War

• Is NATO more trouble than its worth for the United States? Britain, the only NATO member besides the U.S. with anything other than token airlift ability - British troops in Afghanistan and Iraq are having their tours extended because the RAF can't airlift troops from both places at the same time. With conflicts brewing with Iran and China, is the U.S. really in a position to use resources to transport European troops who have orders not to get in to combat?

• The story of how the U.S. Navy nearly got Imad Muginyeh, but were told to back off at the last moment.

• OPEC will not adjust production levels, with the UAE oil minister describing the current price of $50/60 per barrel as acceptable to 'both producers and consumers'.

No, seriously...

• Holland's reputation as a hedonist paradise has taken another dark turn, following the establishment of a political party in favour of raping children. Not wanting to be labelled as 'the child-rape party', the Charity, Freedom and Diversity party have announced support for 'consensual' bestiality - apparently part of their proposals for improved animal rights.

• Syria's ambassdor to the United Nations told the Security Council that Israel was behind World Wars I and II.

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