News conference imminent, for those of you who are awake at this hour.

Insane murdering psyschopath dead. Good.

Despite the danger to my everlasting soul, this is one of the people that - if I believed in torture - I would happily engage in with Zarqawi - personally.

Iraq also appears to have reached an agreement to complete the government. Big day.

This will give our side a political boost in the short term, and as such, is good news.

But I would also direct us to Strategypage's "Murphy's Law" post for June 7 (how's that for a called shot?), which predicted that Z-man was not long for this world. The reason being that, as an uncontrollable psychopath and a strategic idiot, he had become "bad for business," and that Al-Q would either sell him out or bump him off themselves. So I'm guessing that his Al-Q brethren set him up big-time.

So while I am pleased on a karmic level that Z-man has begun his eternity in the flaming pits of Hell, I also wonder: Will he now be replaced by someone more... competent?

BBC had a talking head saying that, after the Amman bombings, people from Zarqawi's own tribe started to break the 'taboo' about providing intelligence about him.

I'm waiting for the Spinmeisters to start spinning this one...
You guys even beat Drudge on this, Congrats!

I don't know much about that part of the world but I suspect (having spent some time back-country in South America) that the most valuable quarry may turn out to be the half-dozen or so tangos meeting with him. They were probabably the equivalent of colonels and senior NCOs -- people a harried and struggling force can ill afford to lose and can replace only with great difficulty, if at all.

Zarqawi Scheduled for Martyrdom

June 7, 2006: The relationship between terrorist leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi and and the mainline al Qaeda leadership continues to deteriorate. Zarqawi's recent audio messages have not only attacked the U.S. and the Shia-dominated government in Iraq, but also Iran. He's even claiming that the U.S., Iran, and Shia in general, are in cahoots to destroy Islam. He has also called for continued attacks against Shia.

Except for his verbal attacks on the U.S. and the Iraqi government, he is almost totally distanced himself from the central leadership. Other al Qaeda leaders have been trying to down play anti-Iranian and anti-Shia rhetoric, and have been strongly discouraging attacks on civilians.

Given that Zarqawi has become a loose cannon and that his actions are handicapping Al Qaeda's efforts, it seems reasonable to expect that an accident may befall him at some point in the near future. If handled right it can be made to look like he went out in a blaze of glory fighting American troops or that he was foully murdered. Either way, al Qaeda gets rid of a problem and gains another "martyr."

Bart Hall: reports say that a senior subcommandante was captured with tons of valuable intel on his person. So, yes.

Sounds like he was fingered by Jordanian intelligence.

Ding, dong, the witch is dead.... Well, a worshipper of Baal in the name of Islam. Close enough, I reckon.

Good hunting, and good shooting if so. The more people like Zarqawi and those sympathetic to him who meet premature ends, the fewer of us who will.

Strike one lunatic.

Congrats to the guys in the military. You have been working hard, and there is still a lot to do. Keep up the good work.

SF

One can only hope 72 virgin sumo wrestlers are shouting "dibs!" right now in a poetically-just afterlife....

Thank god. This is a good thing, although I think its unlikely to have a decisive impact on the overall situation in and of itself. It certainly gives a moral boost for the forces of order and justice. Now if the Iraqi government can strike while the irons hot, some big gains may be consolidated. I hope to god Khalilzad is right this moment twisting some arms. This is the political equivalent of winning a battle, if you dont follow it up and take advantage it doesnt mean much to the course of the war.

I almost missed this priceless item on Instapundit:

"HEZBOLLAH hates Zarqawi. Overall, his popularity seems rather low.
UPDATE: And Zarqawi hates Hezbollah!

Is it just me, or is the Middle East a lot like 7th Grade with RPGs?"

Caldwell also said U.S. and Iraqi troops carried out 17 raids around Baghdad following al-Zarqawi's killing.

Very encouraging news.

As the story breaks, its starting to look like our specops guys had been tailing one of his LTs for some time and caught him heading into a residence, then called in the strike. I havn't heard it confirmed that they knew before the drop that Zarqawi was inside, and were initialy targeting the LT.

Still good news, especialy considering that the Cabinet has been finished for Iraqi leadership. I guess David Igniatus will have to eat some crow now.

Good work for our people all around. And it sounds like the Jordanians and the locals had something to do with it too. This was the product of alot of careful work. I hope the guy that dropped the bomb realizes how much happiness he's brought to the world.

"Will he now be replaced by someone more... competent?"

Zarqawi proved himself I think an extemely compotent field commander for Al-Queda. He was personally tough, cunning, ruthless, and tactically adept in small terrorism operations so far as that goes. Fortunately for us, Zarqawi shared with so many other tactically compotent field commmanders the flaw of not being able to see the big picture. Much like Rommel in Africa, who failed to see that the more tactical victories he had in Africa the closer he brought the Reich to strategic defeat, Zarqawi failed to see how ruinious his tactical tools were to Al-Queda's strategic interests. Nothing could have turned the Islamic world against Al-Queda like the daily toll of suicide bombers killing fellow Muslims. Zarqawi managed to kill with his operations several times as many Muslims as all the Jews ever killed by suicide bombers in Israel. That is simply no way to win an insurgency. Much as Rommel failed to see that the operation he was conducting was doomed by logistics no matter how many victories he racked up, Zarqawi failed to see that his own operation was doomed by its own apparant success. Every head he hewed off brought him one step closer to defeat.

Fortunately for us, Al-Queda has no one near the level of compotency of Giap to step into the role of strategic planner. Equally fortunately, Al-Queda's strategic vision is religious rather than rational, which means that its highly unlikely that anyone in Al-Queda is going to change the methods without being accused of being a heretic.

As bad as we have been at times in fighting the hearts and minds war, our enemies have been much worse.

Nonetheless, today is still a good day. One slow step at a time.

Something that seems obvious to me but which hasn't gotten much press (that I've seen) is this:

Zarqawi's death marks (*) a turning point in the Iraqi insurgency not as a cause of future actions but as the result of past actions. There are two things I no longer believe in: The spontaneous uprising, and the master stroke of good luck. Yeah, they happen, but far, far less than most people believe. States, and organizations which aspire to statehood or the-postmodern equivalencies, do not thrive on luck alone. The United States military does not bumble along in Iraq by luck alone, no matter how much it might seem that way on depressing days. Given our abilities to plan, co-ordinate, and bring overwhelming power to bear, it follows that Zarqawi did not survive by luck alone, nor even by personal skill.

Zarqawi survived this long because he has a tiered organization below him and behind him. There is him, and an inner circle of advisors, and a cluster of cells and resources constituting an even lower base. Then, there is-- I will claim, was-- a significant population of "just folks" among the Sunni population being directed to support Zarqawi by the tribal and clan structures in numerous small ways, but especially including granting him harbor and seclusion.

Now, Zarqawi wasn't picked off by a chance moment of opportunity from a hellfire missile on a patrolling Predator. (If he were, it would have been luck, but luck of the made-luck type brought about by technology and its coordinated use.) He and his buddies were brought down by pre-arranged air strikes from frickin' 500 lb bombs! This was not a whim or a chance. We not only knew where he was, we knew where he was going to be with enough time to set up the Extreme Prejudice option and take a noticeable bite out of his top tier organization at the same time.

This, ladies and gentlemen, was an intelligence leak exploitation. Who had the intelligence to leak in the first place? Logically speaking, the Sunnis. Had the Shi'a or the Kurds had it, they would have exploited it a long time ago.

Why was the information leaked? Because Zarqawi has outlived his strategic use to the Sunni community-- or at least some influential persons within that community believe that so strongly that they have acted upon it. Why was it leaked now? As a show of good faith that the Sunnis want the various political deals to hold. The Sunnis (or some influential numbers of them, again) have come to the conclusion that they've gotten all they're going to get out of the political wrangling; that it's good enough for them; and that they feel secure enough to give up one of their security guarantors in order to lock in the deal, as it were.

It's still a great thing. It is, I hope, a harbinger of things to come. But any further insurgency mop-up or drawdown will be primarily as a result of the same process that generated Zarqawi's death, rather than a direct result of Zarqawi's death itself. Zarqawi's death will only compound it.

• Well, potentially marks, but please forgive me for not qualifying every statement.

--m.vitruvius@gmail.com

celebrim, I did mean strategically competent — able to comprehend the big picture, as you say. I hope you are right, and that he was, such as he was, the best Al-Q can do. That would make him an important military target as well as a crucial political one, and amplify the significance of bagging him.

Those who appreciate my song writing but can't stand my voice, may celebrate of Zarqawi's death with this song of resolve:

Home
Practically Poetz (featuring Rod Marlin on vocals)
words and music by Dr. BLT ©2006
http://www.drblt.com/music/homeone.mp3

As for the rest of you, here's a brand new one:

Now that Zarqawi's Gone
words and music by Dr. BLT ©2006
http://www.drblt.com/music/nowthatzarq.mp3

Now that Zarqawi's Gone (acoustic mix)
words and music by Dr. BLT ©2006
http://www.drblt.com/music/now.mp3

Now that Zarqawi’s Gone

words and music by Dr. BLT ©2006

we can breathe a whole lot easier

now that Zarqawi’s gone

we can cautiously celebrate

now that Zarqawi’s gone

now that Zarqawi’s gone

we’ve got a reason for a brand new song

no, it ain’t over

but we’re feelin’ mighty strong

now that Zarqawi’s gone

when I heard it on

the evening news

I told myself

This must be wrong

But when I saw

The photographs

Upon the screen

I soon became convinced

Zarqawi’s gone

Now I know they’re gonna say

This doesn’t matter

‘cause we opened up a hornet’s nest

you know

yeah, some will say

it doesn’t matter

but it does to me

we’ve crushed the head of a serpent--

a serpent in his sleep

now that Zarqawi’s gone

we’ve got a reason for a brand new song

no, it ain’t over

but we’re feelin’ mighty strong

now that Zarqawi’s gone