An Iranian-made Zilzal rocket, destroyed by Israeli aircraft, falls to earth in Lebanon
an Israel Air Force air strike in Lebanon on Monday destroyed at least one long-range Iranian-made missile capable of hitting Tel Aviv, IDF officials said.
The officials said an IAF aircraft targeted a Hezbollah truck carrying the weapons before they could be launched. The force of the blast sent at least one missile flying into the air, but it fell nearby. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity under military regulations.
Officials said the destroyed missile was an Iranian-made "Zilzal," which has a range of about 200 kilometers [120 miles - DS].
Lebanese TV stations broadcast video pictures of the downed missile which they initially reported was an IAF aircraft falling to the ground.
During nearly a week of fighting, Hezbollah militants have fired missiles up to 40 kilometers into Israel. But officials have raised concerns the guerrilla group could strike Tel Aviv, roughly 120 kilometers south of the border with Lebanon.
AS BCB notes, Hezbollah is not aiming their rockets at Israeli military units or installations. They are deliberately targeting Israeli civilians. More on Hezbollah rockets here.
Austin Bay has an essay about Katyushas and links to another informative piece on Strategy Page.
Whats with Israel hitting Lebanese military targets? That doesnt make any sense.
"Whats with Israel hitting Lebanese military targets? That doesnt make any sense."
You have to remember that Hezbollah actually has a larger and more powerful military than the official Lebanese army.
A house full of long-range rockets is a military target. A launcher truck anned by Hezbollah is a military target. Et bloody cetera.
"Whats with Israel hitting Lebanese military targets? That doesnt make any sense."
I have to agree. When Israel hit the runway of a Lebanese military base with no fixed wing aircraft, I smiled because that was perfect on several levels.
But targetting Lebanese military positions is just bizarre. Granted, about 1/3rd of the Lebanese military would side with Hizballah in a conflict, but unless the Lebanese are taking the extraordinary step of sending the Israeli's information about unit composition - and I don't believe that they have the guts to do that - I've got no explanation except that the Israeli's do not really have a coherent strategic vision.
And that is bad. Really bad.
"A house full of long-range rockets is a military target. A launcher truck anned by Hezbollah is a military target. Et bloody cetera."
I certainly agree with that- but the Israelis are reportedly hitting flat out Lebanese military bases. Its strange to do that while at the same time telling the Lebanese government they are expected to man up and disarm Hezbollah and police their border. The only outside logic I can see in this is that the Israeli intelligence is as good as advertised and they've snuck in some quick ones against some sort of quasi-Hezbollah/Lebanese outposts or supply nodes. The problem with that is it could be a military coup but a strategic disaster if the Lebanese are alienated by it.
If you look at what was hit, all of the Lebanese Army targets were Radar installations targeting Israel's planes and ships. They should be hit!
Islamists in the Lebanese Army are sort of like Pakistan's ISI creating and continuing to support the Taliban. Fundemental Islamists are Killers everywhere and must be exterminated.
Thats what I assumed too, but I keep hearing reports like this:
"The Lebanese base in Kfar Chima took a direct hit as troops rushed to bomb shelters, killing at least 11 soldiers and wounding 35, the Lebanese military said. The base is in a hilly area adjacent to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut that have been frequently targeted by Israeli jets in recent days.
There was no indication why the base was hit, but Lebanese media suggested Israel may be trying to prevent the quick repair of previously destroyed bridges and roads.
The Lebanese army has largely stayed out of the fighting, confining itself to firing anti-aircraft guns at Israeli planes. But Israeli jets have often struck Lebanese army positions."
AP
The base is in a hilly area adjacent to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut that have been frequently targeted by Israeli jets in recent days.
So they're right next to Hezballah bases in an area Israel advised all non-HA to clear out of days ago. That was followed by repeated IAF strikes on those bases. Unless the Lebanese troops were there attacking those bases (and I see no sign they were), why should Israel believe they were still there for any other reason than to support Hezballah?
Strikes on Lebanese army bases in the north are more puzzling, but while mistakes happen in wartime, I really sincerely doubt Israel is deliberately hitting Lebanese military or civilian targets just for the hell of it. Even if they have effectively unlimited ordnance, the political cost is far too high.
I dont have a problem with any particular strike. But it does seem like Israel is routinely hitting Lebanese army bases, and i dont think it is accidental. Im not condemning it, im trying to understand it. This entire offensive seems cobbled together to me. Maybe there is a larger strategy that isnt apparent yet, but at the moment i've got a sinking feeling Olmert is out of his depth and may be making questionable moves. If there is a very good reason for hitting the Lebanese, so be it. But if they are doing it to prod the Lebanese government into action or as a threat, that would counterproductive indeed.
i've got a sinking feeling Olmert is out of his depth and may be making questionable moves.
Or Israel has decided that the Shi-ites cannot be deterred, but the rest of the country can be. I began thinking about that possibility when one of the Lebanese blogs said this early in the war:
If you believed this to be true, would you consider some attacks on the rest of the country to encourage them to clamp down on Hezbollah in the future?
I'm not saying I necessarily agree with the strategy or am convinced that this is the strategy, but it matches up with some of the information.
Olmert is not the commander in chief of the IDF, and strategy usually comes from the Defense Minister in consultation with the cabinet.
confining itself to firing anti-aircraft guns at Israeli planes.
Whats the problem?
According to today's Wall St Journal, about 35% of the Lebanese Army is Shia (as is Hezbollah). Of these, the ones who are actively helping Hezb may be the ones attacked, eg firing anti-aircraft guns. The Israelis probably know who they are.
"Olmert is not the commander in chief of the IDF, and strategy usually comes from the Defense Minister in consultation with the cabinet."
This is another interesting point because there have been rumbles from Debka and others that there is a disconnect in the Israeli government that has led to some conflicting orders.
Olmert may not plan IDF strategy, but he ultimately dictates their policy. It was apparently his intervention that stopped the initial Gaza incursion after the first kidnapping, which I happen to believe led us to where we ultimately got. If it's true there is a difference of opinion in the Israeli cabinet it could explain a pretty ad hoc military campaign, if that is whats happening.
On Sunday, IDF said they have destroyed 25% of Hizbollah's missiles and katysha rockets. 75% to go.
Just listened to Israeli representive on MSNBC tell Tucker Carlson that the only Lebanese army targets that have been "pinpointed" are those for which they have specific intelligence that radar or anti-aircraft weaponry are being used against Israeli aircraft. Israel does not believe that these are approved army ops, but individual units have taken up the Hezbollah cause.
"Officials said the destroyed missile was an Iranian-made "Zilzal," which has a range of about 200 kilometers [120 miles - DS]."
"During nearly a week of fighting, Hezbollah militants have fired missiles up to 40 kilometers into Israel. But officials have raised concerns the guerrilla group could strike Tel Aviv, roughly 120 kilometers south of the border with Lebanon."
One of the implications of the current fighting is that a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is no longer strategically viable for Israel. Missiles with a 40 kilometer (24 mile) range can strike most Israeli population centers from launching sites within the West Bank. Similar missiles fired from sites in the Gaza Strip could hit most of the remaining Israeli centers. Missiles with a 200 kilometer (120 mile) range can strike all of Israel from launching sites in the Palestinian West Bank.
The 40 kilometer missiles can be deployed and fired with no warning. The 200 kilometer missiles can be deployed and fired with only limited warning. The result is a viable Palestinian option to wage war on Israel via a missile siege that supplements the suicide bomber attacks. This also negates many of the security benefits Israel hoped to gain via withdrawal from Gaza and most of the West Bank and construction of barriers separating the two populations.
Hezbollah and evolving missile technology have just killed the two-state peace plan. There is now only room for one semi-strategically viable state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
Our interesting times are going to get even more interesting as both sides, and their respective allies, grasp this new reality.
Now the Hezbullies stand accused of packing their rockets with shrapnel so as to maim Israeli civilians.
This Debka report is fascinating. As always, take with a lot of salt, but they are usually not bad with their IDF sources. They are claiming Hezbollah didnt melt away but has built a vast network of VC style underground tunnels and ratholes and are fighting a coordinated battle with the Israelis, including trying to raid across the border. If the Israelis are quick enough they may be able to cut a good chunk of fighters off and destroy them in place. If this report is true Hezbollah is putting up a better than anticipated stand up fight too close in for Israeli air and artillery to make a decisive difference just yet. Ironically all those rockets Hezbollah is using to blast indiscriminately into Israel could be used to good effect in their conventional fight if there was a brain in their terrorist heads.
Any news of this being used in Israel for this conflict? see link please to see video of MTHEL - Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcmI6UnR4gg