Attack on the Ahi-Hanit: A Review & Assessment

By Joe Katzman on July 24, 2006 7:54 AM | 5 Comments

Over at Austin Bay's blog, he has asked Kirk Spencer and Winds contributor Trent Telenko to analyze the recent Hezbollah missile attack on the Saar 5 Eilat Class Israeli corvette, the INS Ahi-Hanit. They have areas of close agreement, and a few disagreements. After passing emails back and forth Austin posted their coordinated assessment, with disagreements noted.

Trent is away from home right now, and asked me to link it here. Fortunately, my flaky EVDO Internet access held up long enough to oblige him, and direct you to a very good assessment.

5 Comments

#1 from Nick Wilson | July 24, 2006 12:15 PM | Reply

It unlikely to become a world war. It is very possible it will become a regional war beyond Israel/Palestine/Lebanon.

#2 from AMac | July 24, 2006 1:16 PM | Reply

This comment was spam-filtered out at Austin Bay's blog, so I'll repost it here:

First-rate compilation and analysis. One minor point, discussed by Spook86 of "In From the Cold" (bl*gspot, natch) in his post Hard Lessons (cite via www.tinyurl.com). His understanding is that the hangar that houses the helicopter at the stern of the ship is large and flat-sided, and thus offers a large radar signature relative to the rest of the ship. Doubtlessly, if this is true, it's more so for some orientations of the ship with respect to a radar-guided missile's approach path than it is for others. If this theory is correct and the Ahi-Hanit's course at the time is consistent with it, then it may be that the C-802 did hit at a very high-contrast spot, rather than being partially decoyed by chaff. Spook86 also says that his sources claim that the missile struck a glancing blow, bounced off the stern, and detonated close by in the water.

#3 from dadmanly | July 24, 2006 3:32 PM | Reply

Excellent piece by Kirk Spencer Trent Telenko.

When we see French armaments used in the service of terrorists, we can suspect a couple of several possibilities. Either the French have sold these weapons directly to Hezbollah, or they were purchases made by the Iranians.

Given the military sophistication of this attack, it is virtually certain that this was conducted by Iranian military personal or technicians. Hezbollah would lack the technical training or expertise with such a weapon system. These are not a terror weapons, after all, but precision guided, anti-ship munitions. Not useful at all at killing innocent civilians.

Linked at
http://www.mudvillegazette.com/milblogs/2006/07/24/#006103
http://dadmanly.bl*gspot.com/2006/07/sophisticated-attack.html

#4 from Trent Telenko | July 25, 2006 5:53 PM | Reply

AMAC,

That description would weight the analysis towards'c Kirk's "Hubris" verdict rather than my take.

Thanks for the update.

#5 from Trent Telenko | July 25, 2006 5:54 PM | Reply

AMAC,

That description would weight the analysis towards Kirk's "Hubris" verdict rather than my take.

Thanks for the update.

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Attack on the Ahi-Hanit: A Review & Assessment

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