Much ballyhoo was made earlier today about the Israeli security cabinet's approval of a deeper ground campaign into Lebanon. Could it be that the Olmert government was finally getting serious about the fight and gave the IDF the "go order" to sweep northward to the Litani?
Nope.
Wednesday, Aug. 9
11:45 a.m.: The Israeli military will hold off on a wider ground offensive for two or three days to allow the U.N. Security Council to continue its debate for a cease-fire resolution.
10:15 a.m.: Israel's Olmert told a cabinet meeting a new diplomatic process would begin simultaneous to the military operation in southern Lebanon, a cabinet minister said. Olmert made the announcement after a telephone call with U.S. Secretary of State Rice. Olmert also said a new resolution to end the fighting would be drafted to try to address Lebanon's concerns.
A flipflop in only 90 minutes. I think that's a new record. No wonder Haaretz editorialized yesterday,
[I]t is not too late perhaps to demand of the army not to leave Israel, at the end of the war, defeated and exposed to any terror gang that might take up positions on any of its borders and aim missiles at its population.
Let there be no doubt: Despite the efforts of the prime minister and IDF generals to enumerate the IDF's achievements, the war as it approaches its end is seen by the region and the world - and even by the Israeli public - as a stinging defeat with possibly fateful implications. The criterion by which the result of the military conflict is measured, in Israel and abroad, is the number of missiles falling on the Israeli population, which has not slowed, but has even increased during the fighting. In the wake of such an outcome, Iran will doubtlessly attempt to supply missiles not only to a rehabilitated Hezbollah, but to any organization seeking to launch missiles at a weakened Israel.
However, part of the political and military establishment - like large parts of the public - believes there is still time and fortitude to sweep aside, even at this late stage, the 1982 Lebanon war. Today, unlike a month ago, there is no longer any trace of the illusion that the air force alone can eliminate the rocket launchers. Today everyone realizes that a resolute, broad ground operation is required for that.
So IDF units are moving into departure positions but not much doing anything new to take the intiative.
This is a classic example of being so driven to not repeat the last war's mistakes that they walk blindly into a different blunder.
Israel's error in 82 wasnt their lightning strike, it was their failure to ignore the territory they took and just go home- ready to rinse and repeat at the slightest provocation. So now they abandon the effective part of the strategy and embrace the lousy part. They've abandoned manuever and occupied a small swath of land. Aside from some raids to keep Hezbollah off balance (good) they have handed the initiative to Hezbollah. Picking through fortified positions in frontal assaults is not the recipe for either low casualties nor decisive victory.
What is needed is a punch through the lines with an armored force to cut the militants supply lines physically, surround the redoubts, and allow follow on troops to reduce them with overwhelming firepower. All of this requires a great deal many more troops than the small numbers being fed in peacemeal at the moment, but the casualties will ultimately be lower and the effect on Hezbollah far greater. Its one thing to get pushed out of a position by superior forces, its quite another to be overrun and cut off. The psychological effect is orders of magnitude. All that is happening now is that Hezbollah is being allowed to use the terrain to its maximum advantage and suffer modest casualties while inflicting relatively high casualties. This gives them confidence, and they are managing to hold ground. The IDF essentially handed away their legend of being an unstopable force, and that was psychologically worth a division in itself. That aura needs to be reclaimed, because in the big picture the IDFs legendary prowess is more important to Israels security than anything happening in Lebanon.
You know it is hard to believe that this army has forgotten the lessons of "Strategy" by B.H.L. Hart. Especially since Israeli General Yigal Yadin wrote an addendum.
I have to admit that even with my confidence this is painful to watch.
Could the Israelis/Americans/French/Arab League all be stalling for the Aug 22 date with Iran?
"Kick their ass, don't piss on them!"
It was good advice for mobile warfare when General Heinz Guderian first said it in World War II and it's good advice now.
Mark B. is on target in post #1. I've been puzzled since the beginning of this fighting by the failure to mass more troops and by the failure to use large concentrations of artillery fire. News reports of the fighting often mention "heavy artillery fire" by Israel and then describe 20 rounds fired over 45 minutes. (WTF? How is that heavy fire?)
A single battalion of 155 mm artillery, either self-propelled or towed, has 18-24 guns. With just a single battalion, Israel ought to be able to deliver 18-24 rounds every 15-20 seconds. (At least for short intervals, tube wear is a problem if the guns are fired at that pace for long periods).
And that's just one artillery battalion firing in support of the infantry and armor units. TOE for a US armor or mech. infantry division is three (3) artillery battalions, plus divisional artillery assets (MLRS battery/battalion). (Don Sensing, please correct any errors in current US TOE). In addition, Corps-level artillery and artillery from divisions that are not in contact is usually tasked to support the division(s) that is/are in contact.
Which begs the question: Where is the rain of steel and high explosive on the Hizballah strongpoints?
If Israeli Army TOE is similar to US Army TOE, they ought to be able to pulverize Hizballah positions or at least suppress them while the maneuver forces close in to destroy the positions. So, is the Israeli Army significantly weaker in artillery assets than the US Army? Or, are they just not using most of their artillery?
If one wants to know what happened to Israel then has to look since Oslo and how and why a military person gets promoted to top. Should also look at what Peretz and Olmert think.
The Olmert government, and Olmert himself (Israel's Dan Quayle) just can't let go of the old paradigm about Arab-Israeli conflicts. The Israel people know full well that their existence depends on eliminating Hezbollah and are prodding their government into incremental, spasmodic, action.
So Israeli ground forces will creep incrementally into Lebanon. The MSM and almost everyone think the Olmert government is calling the shots. It isn't. The Israeli people are. No one but me and those who read my posts have considered that Israel is having its first populist revolt against clueless elites, and that this results in otherwise inexplicable inconsistent statements actions by the Israeli government.
The objective is to end Hezbollah presence in southern Lebanon.
It will be achieved thru military plus diplomatic action.
The plan is that the Israelis crunch Hezbollah, then a NATO force fills the vacuum left by the IDF. Finally Lebanese troops, helped by NATO forces, would move in.
Syria and Iran would loose a way to throw stones to Israel and hidding their hand. Southern Lebanese may have a future, and northern Israelis could live outside the bunker.
Those are the objectives and the plan, I don't mind about tactical decissions. IDF staff should know.
I don't think either that the number of missile failling into Israel is a key question. Katyusha launchers could be easily brought back from Syria. Of course the IDF cannnot allow that Haifa is bombed, as the third city of Israel cannot be evacuated and its harbor or its industry closed. Beyond that, the number of Katyusha rockets, with a warhead of only 9 kg, striking northern Israel or the border city of Kiryat Shmona is simply a propaganda matter from Hezbollah.
Don't forget propaganda is so important for terrorist groups as military action. Don't take Hezbollah's bait. It is a complicated matter and it will take months to be solved.
I might add that preparation of the Bekaa Valley is ongoing. Including a recent hit at the Syria/Lebanon border crossing in the area.
If Israel expects a nuke (emp from the Iranian description of - light up the sky) then the thing to do is to have the troops dispersed and mostly in Lebanon on the 22nd. However, a premature build up is economically costly.
So this stupid dance might make sense under those circumstances.
It will be impossible to tell if the israeli moves are smart ofr stupid until the war is over.
I'm betting on smart.
Simon
"The plan is that the Israelis crunch Hezbollah, then a NATO force fills the vacuum left by the IDF. Finally Lebanese troops, helped by NATO forces, would move in."
I think that is the hope, if you call it a plan. And i think it was arrived at late in the day when Olmert suddenly realized what he'd gotten himself into. Unfortunately its a lousy plan, because it has one intrinsic, fatal flaw: Which troops, from where, and who is going to deal with the rockets that Hezbollah keeps firing when Israel evacuates Lebanon?
The Europeans couldnt muster up the will or the numbers to send a meaningful force into the Balkans, in Europe, a days car ride from Venice, to stop genocide, without US forces.
Its going to take more than a token force to do anything useful in Lebanon, and they are going to have to have some sort of mandate that is more than pure self-defense. Those two things arent just mutually exclusively with the Continentals, they are each both equally impossible to imagine.
Again, the bottom line is that no matter what force you put in southern Lebanon, Lebanese or not, they will not have any incentive to stop Hezbollah from infiltrating the border area to fire rockets (which will continue to increase in range). Until Hezbollah is suffienctly bled, there is no good solution for Israel or for peace.
Hezbollah does not want peace and nobody is willing to stop them. All this diplomatic posturing bows to that simple reality.
There were about 1.3 million Lebanese Shia prior to Hezbollah's attack on Israel. 150,000 - 200,000 of those is about 11-15%. Compare that to my estimate last week:
Some Islamist pundit is probably noting the same thing about the evacuation of northern israel right this minute ;)
The decision, made at a six-hour security cabinet meeting, approved a plan drawn up by the military and Defense Minister Amir Peretz to move farther and faster into Lebanon.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Mr. Peretz will decide when the new operation begins, and they are expected to wait a bit so a diplomatic solution, currently being negotiated at the United Nations, can be found.
But they are not expected to wait very long, a senior cabinet minister who was in the meeting said. “The army is in full motion,” he said.
NYT
Looks like the war of motion is beginning.
We will now have a chance to see if my predictions will come true.
Simon
From the same article:
"The Israelis said the new operation was designed to cut rocket launches but would remain within four miles of the border."
This is like trying to push over a refrigerator. Tom has had the right of it, the Israeli public (and circumstances) are working like a pendulum against inertia of the Olmert government. The tide creeps up a little bit with every fresh wave. This is no way to fight a war. At this rate theyll be in Beirut by 2115.
M. Simon,
There might be an Iranian nuclear test on the 22nd, but IMO it will more likely be an announcement of a lesser milestone in nuclear weapons development. I think August is a bit early for a test, but could be wrong. IMO October - November is more likely for a test shot.
Any test shot will bring the Total destruction by bombing of every tank, plane, naval vessel, air-defense system, all Republican Guard bases and all Basj bases. Wait and see!
Nuclear facilities also.
I do agree with Mr. Holsinger. He seems to the have the correct reading of the populist revolt IMHO; one that I think also will happen here after the next 9/11 (sadly inevitable).
In Israel the Peace Process and Left is dead; they just don't know it.
As for Iran it seems they have something big. Ahmadinejad has spoken too much not to have something big such as a test.
Dems will be screaming "hands of Iran" ... Mike Wallace was quoted to the effect of Ahmadinejad is a great man etc. Followed doubtless by an attack on the Great as opposed to the Little one.
Israel appears at this hour to have surrendered and sued for peace.
Even I am completely stunned at this turn of events. Oh, to have Sharon back for but a week!
How long can the Olmert government last at this point?
Im saying this and i dont mean it as any kind of hyperbole. Ehud Olmert is not up to the challenge. He is the Edward Daladier of this crisis. The man does not have the nerve to carry out what needs to be done, he his flailing for life rafts that clearly cant sustain his nation. Olmert is in a panic.
Israeli Army has reached Marjayoun on the road to Baalbeck.
Syria is checking its bomb shelters.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Verrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry
interrrrrrrrrrrrrrresting.
#16 Cerebelum,
Some surrender.
Magic number 555312
555 is the number of Mars in the kaballah. Mars in case you have forgotten is the Maker of War.
"The Olmert government, and Olmert himself (Israel's Dan Quayle)"
I was writing a post to the effect that he is Israel's John Kerry. Or Jimmy Carter. He certainly does want to submit Israel's battle plans to the Global Test.
There are rumors of a coup. That's how frustrated the generals are that Olmert is pissing this war away. And the people feel the same way, so it would be a popular coup. And knowing the Israelis the generals would give the government back when they are done with it.
"Israeli Army has reached Marjayoun on the road to Baalbeck."
Lebanon is 20 miles wide. Everything is on the road to Baalbeck. Marjayoun is still only 4 miles inside the border.
"Magic number 555312
555 is the number of Mars in the kaballah. Mars in case you have forgotten is the Maker of War."
I thought he was the maker of candy bars.
#21,
Well I guess the situation is still ambiguous. Just what any good military planner would want.
Then there is the one small detail re: Syria.
Note the Syrians did not prepare their bomb shelters in '82 - the last time Israel invaded Lebanon. They did prepare them in '73. The last time Syria attacked Israel.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?
Here is kind of a play by play of what I think is happening. Based on recent reporrts.
Here is kind of a play by play of what I think is happening. Based on recent reporrts.
http://powerandcontrol.bl*gspot.com/2006/08/picking-up-speed.html
"Well I guess the situation is still ambiguous. Just what any good military planner would want."
You want your enemy to think there is ambiguity, not yourself. There is a thick line between deception and befuddlement. Wandering with a knife into a gunfight may bewilder your enemy but it wont stop a bullet.
Simon, like we've talked about, i think your ideas are good ones but they arent what is actually happening.
Judith,
Your No. 20 and the Keshertalk post you linked are just amazing.
Hezbollah has to be neutralized so an operation (air operation) against Iran could be carried out.
I'd put before the Shia, Sunni troops. Any attack against them would have an opposite propaganda effect among Arabs, something that already happens in Iraq.