It's so sad about Ehud. He led them into war and was clueless in the process. As an American who never second guesses what Israel does because he has no real right to since he doesn't live there, I have to make an exception this time. Even I could have done a better job. What was the point of continuous ineffectual bombing and wasting hundreds of millions in munitions by bombing infrastructure without going to the source and jamming it up their butts I'm not on the front lines, and I don't have a son who will die, but the soldiers knew what had to be done and he didn't let them. For the past couple of days I've said Netanyahu is coming back, and I'm glad to see my prediction confirmed in your crystal ball. Hurry, too! So sad. So pathetic. But Israel will come back like a lion after licking their wounds. Judah is their symbol, and this lion shall roar again.

The thing that is really annoying about understanding history, human behavior, and war is that the more you know, the more easily you are ticked off by watching people who should no better repeating the same mistakes, setting up the next, larger war. Israel's political leadership has been failing it for the last dozen years, and this has been its worst failure yet, other possibly than inviting Arafat back in.

I'll second your prediction and add this one: Israel will be attacked by Hizb'allah and/or Hamas within a year, and will be in a worse, larger, harder war with either or both within 6 years.

This is the copy of my yesterday’s post at Captain’s Quarters:

I am starting to think that, in spite of the fact that people are dieing, NOBODY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HEZBOLLAH is really serious about what they are doing!
Israel has been advancing and not advancing at the same time; the US supports Israel and Dr. Rice said that the returning to the situation on July 12 is not an option but pressures Israel not to advance; France, Lebanon and the UN are themselves which means they say one thing and mean another!!
Does anybody besides Iran and Hezbollah speak and mean what they say? It certainly appears not to be the case which does not augur well for the future!
Has anybody consider the consequences Israel’s government lack of moral clarity and fortitude will have on the Israeli themselves especially after uniting themselves, including previously-declared war opponents, behind what turns out to be a nearly traitorous government? It is sickening!

As I do not wish to be misunderstood as supporting Hezbollah, which I loath, I want to say that I find Hezbollah much scarier now than before the war started; not only they mean what they say but they have been promising also hell for all of us.

Israel's Jimmy Carter. With all that entails.

I'm going to put my dollar down and say Bibi isn't coming back.

I hope Bibi comes back. He will obliterate these terrorists without hesitation. Even Ahmadinejad will shut up if Netanyahu returns..

Heh. OK, "Donald Sensing", now I see where it's all coming from... Always suspected though :-) . OK, one last time, while I'm here:

"Now, with Hezbollah able to range south of Haifa, the potential economic effects are vastly greater."

Should be, "with Hezbollah's being able to strike as far as...", etc.

Btw, I think you're wrong in your predictions (which are more like suggestions). But we'll see. Oh, and here's my guess: Olmert or not, Bibi will never amount to anything; he's a spent quantity. Hell, he can't even hire someone who speaks English to promote his side on the US blogs... we'll see.

Donald Sensing: "Well, you can't accuse me of being ambiguous."

No indeed. Such clarity is admirable, and I mean that most sincerely.

I also could not accuse you of lacking reasons for your confidence in your judgment. You've been right every single day of this fiasco, and not only were you right you were right as clearly as possible early, when I was still goggle-eyed and silent in bafflement. ("What on Earth do these people think they are doing.") You had moved beyond the question to the unhappy answer.

So I think your prediction is as good as we are going to get for now.

I think the key point is: "Israeli voters will quickly conclude that they cannot vote for guns or butter, they can only vote for both or neither." That's what's going to drive everything.

I realize this is being considered a fiasco, but a lot about this war never added up and I'm not in such a hurry to judge Olmert poorly for getting out.

There's something fundamentally wrong with a situation in which Arab countries are cheering Israel into war, as at the start of this. When the righteous prince east of the Jordon started mouthing off about Israeli crimes I felt even more strongly that something bad was happening.

In the end, I suspect Hezballah got quite a punishment, enough to keep them on the sidelines for a while. Israel managed to get all the leaders of the world to say the magic words "right to defend herself", and conducted a war in the teeth of an overwhelming media attack while still coming out on the legal high ground.

I think this war has made it harder, not easier, to attack Israel.

But if not, I'd like somebody to tell me why Olmert made the single most unpopular decision he could have made. Forget about military judgement. He did exactly the opposite of what a weak leader who bows to pressure would do, given that virtually all Israelis are spoiling for more war. Why?

Why? Because Olmert cared more about world opinion than keeping rockets out of Haifa and places south.

This deal requires Israel to move back to it's border, and do nothing while Hezbollah rains rockets down on them, and the UN force sits around with the French. The two kidnapped soldiers won't be returned, ever, and any action Israel will take will be against the Human Shields times 15,000, the UN force.

Damn straight Bibi will be back and the Israeli public will respond by a good deal of ethnic cleansing on it's own in the West Bank. Seeing no deal possible and the rain of rockets still coming down, they will act accordingly.

A huge victory for Nasrallah and one that guarantees Iranian supplied rockets hitting Tel Aviv within six months at the most; probably at this point a nuke barrage.

IMHO the Israeli public is angry, scared, and desperate knowing the inevitability of the above situation. Every Israeli is likely contemplating his own and his family's destruction and the natural result will be Bibi.

Unless you think that Iran and Hezbollah don't really mean it when they say they want to nuke Israel off the map.

I will contact my friends in Israel and get back to you. But, I suspect Jim Rockford is right. Iran is serious about wiping Israel off of the map. It has been a rallying cry for the Islamofascists for years - Death to Israel. Should Tel Aviv be hit with Iranian rockets, I cannot doubt that hell will rain on the rocketeer.

To quote Doc Holliday in "Wyatt Earp", "Wyatt isn't looking for revenge, he is looking for retribution."

If the Muslim world wants war, I say we give it to them in ways they CAN understand.

The Hobo

> Unless you think that Iran and
> Hezbollah don't really mean it
> when they say they want to nuke
> Israel off the map.

they mean it.

I also think it's abundantly clear to the Lebanese now that there are terrible consequences to having Hezballah as a houseguest.

I'm saying there may have been more accomplished here than immediately appears to be the case.

The obvious parallel between Lebanon and the PA is that both do nothing against the terrorists in their midsts. For Israel itself to act against those terrorists has done nothing in the past to change that. Now, both Lebanona and the PA are directly in the line of fire between Israel and Iran. I'm willing to entertain the idea that that can be a constructive situation.

There still exists here, in some of the comments, a fundamental lack of understanding of the treacherous nature of what Hezbollah has setup in South Lebanon, and the type of meat grinder that awaits the IDF soldiers. I would urge all to read some of Pat Lang's stuff:

Tabouleh Line 1

Tabouleh Line 2

Tabouleh Line 3

One quote:

"This is positional warfare waged using field fortifications as the base and pivot so that a heavier force advancing into the "grid" of the defense can be engaged and defeated by attrition. So far, they are doing quite a job. A force in the process of evolution is what I would call HA."

What a lot of analysts are using by way of analogy is Iwo Jima.

Warrens, bunkers, tunnels, hidden all over the place, and connected. Resistant to air power.

Mines, boobytraps, sophisticated communications to both communicate within fighters, and to set off the boobytraps remotely.

The ratio of Hezbollah KIA's to IDF KIA's reduced to 3 or 4 to 1, rather than the classic standard of 10 to 1.

This is a meat grinder, folks.

Even if the tanks and troops "pacify" an area, they wouldn't have gotten every hideyhole. Then the forces in the area become sitting ducks, as "pacified" areas suddenly blow up, or, the HA fighters come up from hidden bunkers to set off mines, set traps, or engage in sniper fire.

And the bitch of it is, it is a possibility that these ingenious defenses may be set up deep, continuing on 10 miles from the border.

So, the question then becomes - will Israel go to the wall on this, given the level of casualties they would see?

IDF has to absorb the shock of the competency of the HA. Is it better to fight on now, or take a break, a breather, a ceasfire, and reorient the IDF, the equipment, the mentality, towards the future, when the IDF will be better prepared?

I don't know. But that looks to be the decision for the moment. It may not last long.

#13 hypocrisyrules

Good link, thanks. I think your analysis is correct. Iwo - shudder. One of my uncles fought there, he never really talked about it, but when it came up once, I still remember the look on his face from 30 years ago. They paid 1 for 3 KIA, 1 for 1 overall casualties. I don't know if the current government in Israel has the stomach for that (at this time). If a missile hits Tel Aviv with something nasty, then maybe a different story.

I guess those Israelis turned into pacifist-internationalist and betrayed their benefactor America. Or at least I sense of disconnect from reality and perception on behalf of some...

Check this out: How do you react when your beloved Ha'artz publishes editorials critical on neocons? (et tu Brute?)

It looks like I may have to eat the crow.

One caveat: the cease fire is not in place and we haven't heard from Hizbollah.

So my predictions may have a few more days of life.

I can tell you this. My predictions are definitely on life support.

Besides Olmert being on death watch Bush will be seriously hurt by this fiasco.

It turns out that he is no better than any other President WRT Israel. As long as Israel did not advance too well or too far Bush supported them.

Once israel finally decided to solve its problems Bush choked them.

This will not energize the Republican base.

The loss for the Rs in November could be huge. Possibly huge enough to get Bush impeached. And he would deserve it (though not for the reasons the Ds will use).

I will note that the Iranians still have not voted.

22 Aug could change everything.

I have been saying in comments here and there exactly what the links in #13 say.

The Hizbbollah had no intention of blunting the tip of the spear. Their tactic was to go after the shaft.

The way to defeat that tactic was exactly what Israel has been doing. Slow advance while consolidating its flank.

Well Israel is now moving with 40,000 troops as fast as they can go to improve their situation before the cease fire.

If Hizbollah does not stop its rocket attacks the war will go on.

I look at what the UN proposal (it has yet to be ratified - that may come Sunday) means here:

Peace in Lebanon at Last?

#13 - about the Iwo Jima analogy.

The day before the first ground forces moved into Lebanon, July 21, I wrote ...

The fight about to begin (if it does begin) will be nasty. In the countryside it will resemble Pacific island fighting in the Second World War more than the hard, deep strikes of large formations in the Gulf War or Iraq War. Doubtless, the IDF has studied carefully the tactics used by the US Army and Marines in destroying al Qaeda in Fallujah, Iraq in late 2004. And just as surely, Hezbollah has studied that action, too. The ground campaign’s decisive weapons will be rifles, grenades and pistols and judicious artillery. Any soldier from the wars of the last century would feel right at home.

Why is it that Bibi is so popular?
Remember, it was Kfar Qana, apparently with the same "Mr. Green Helmet" on stage, that sank Peres in 1996 and the Israelis threw him out in favour of Bibi who lasted just 2 years during which Arafat ran rings around him and the Maashal fiasco in Amman caused him to release Skeik Yassin back into the folds of Hamas to plot the suicide bombings that would take hundreds of Israeli lives.
Then in Sharon's cabinet he plotted against Sharon. Is this the person, whose crooked party forced the creation of Kadima, the right person to lead Israel?

Israelis vote for a party, not a representative. If they vote him in they will have to take back those failed hacks who they rejected when going with Sharon.
Seems like they have more than one problem.

The UN resolution doesnt require Israel to withdraw until UN troops arive. Israel can keep going so long as Hez'allh continues to fight and Hezb'allah promises to resist until the Israelis leave. My conclusion is nothing has changed except the bombing north of Litani might taper off. Israel will clean out the area south of the Litani and probably take their time, Hezb'allh may have weapons aplenty but they may not have sufficient food or water. My bet remains that HEzb'allah gets ground up.

Olmert, despite the fact that he may not deserve it, is going down. Quickly. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him ridden out of the Knesset on a rail within the next two weeks if things are really as bad as I suspect. There is no time to lose.

Bibi will be back. No matter the failures of the past. Like Churchill, he will emerge as the right man at the right time: a man with courage and absolute moral clarity.

The Republicans are the only party that has a clue about the nature of the Islamist threat to the world. Although Bush may have made some mistakes--a notion which is by no means clear--the Republicans will stick by him and come out to vote in record numbers this fall to assure that the Dems don't assume enough power to let Israel be destroyed.

I am afraid I did not read all the comments to this post due to lack of time.

I have to say though, I think that crystal ball is amazingly in tune. From what I have been reading I think you are correct.

Don,

"... The Hizbollah prisoners know that their hero status in Lebanon will be short lived, and that eventually the Lebanese Shia community, the backbone of Hizbollah support, will be called to account. For that reason, many Hizbollah employees are sending their families to Syria, an exile that may prove permanent.

It seems like there are two issues that might work against the prediction:

First, is there really going to be a permanent cease fire, or a temporary lull. The most significant events might still be to come and those may be more determinative of public opinion.

Second, why wouldn't the party replace Olmert with Peretz before they lose power?

"What a lot of analysts are using by way of analogy is Iwo Jima."

I dont see how this analogy can be made. The fighting level, casualities, number of troops commited and their movement doesnt compares to Iwojima.

Hummmmm, should we be counting days?
Or does this intermission change things?

10 days and counting?

Papa Ray

Since the beginning of this, I've been quoting Patton on the stupidity of fixed defensive fortifications. It costs blood to clear them out, but maybe the good pastor can tell me if the side in fixed fortifications has ever won. It might be a meatgrinder, but the meat for this one is going to be more halal than kosher. Furthermore, the fighting at Bint Jbail convinced the Hezb'allah fighters that they could stand and fight one on one, so they are frozen in their bunkers. I don't know if this was intentional or not. Meanwhile, the Israelis have been taking high ground all over the place. Now, they have troops and armor in force at the Litani (50+ helicopters w/ 35 troops per chopper in the commando force that seized the area, where they linked up with an armored column moving west from the Kiryat Shmona- Metula region. This means that Hezb below the Litani has the sea to their west and the IDF to the north, east and south. Israeli troops are reporting that Hezb's frontline troops look haggard and are scavenging for food. Like someone said above, they have plenty of missiles and anti tank weapons but may be running low on the little things like food and water. Nasrallah probably expected classic Israeli blitz maneuvering, not an extended battle. That's why he didn't stock up his bunker with black dye and his beard is showing plenty of grey.

WWII was not won by the side with the best strategy, it was won because we made fewer mistakes.

I still think that Olmert is an unmitigated disaster.

I would dearly love to see the Israelis declare a government of national unity headed by Natan Sharansky. He's the closet thing to a true statesman in the higher echelon of Israeli politics and is clear sighted about Israel and the west's enemies.

Don, clarity is a blessing. I'm still chuckling over StratFor's garbled prognostications above. I concur. Please make it so.

Israel's fight with Hezbollah is only an unmitigated disaster when measured against what could have been. In real terms Hezb has been badly hurt as shown in Michael Totten's article above "Inside Hezbollah’s Free Fire Zone". Olmert has badly hurt Israel politically and in terms of credibility and prestige. He has been an unmitigated disaster.

Jack Kelly 7/18/06
Will Israel Drop the Hammer?
http://www.irishpennants.com/archives/2006/07/will_israel_dro.php
Raises some cogent points regarding Syria, and makes a compelling case for Israel to take Syria out. I know next to nothing about Syrian politics, so short of removing Assad and eliminating Syria's threat to Israel's flank, who knows what government would follow? Most importantly, he notes that a security belt is no security and only guarantees more powerful and longer range missiles from Iran to Hezbollah.

Kelly points to Josh Manchester 7/17/06
Israel's Beka'a Dilemma
http://www.theadventuresofchester.com/
which offers an excellent discussion

Josh Manchester 7/31/06
Kissinger on Iran
http://www.theadventuresofchester.com/
focuses on the player next up the food chain, Iran.

Kissinger's WaPo article is available here
The Next Steps With Iran
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/30/AR2006073000546.html

Who will grasp the nettle of Iran? How will they manage this? I have my hopes, but cannot claim to know. This is the crux of the present mess in the mideast. I doubt Israel can do more than buy time against Iran's nuclear threat, without a preemptive nuclear strike.

I agree with the Iwo Jima analogy. If Israel were serious about winning under these tactical conditions, it would have to use napalm, not just artillery. If civilians have been given due warning and due opportunity to escape, is this still unthinkable?

It is impossible to read without comiseration the patethic posts of those who believe Israel won this battle.
Only morons cant learn from the near 200 dead israeli soldiers or the effects of antitank missiles hezbollah had in their pocket.
Next time it will be the ground to air missiles and the spectacle of F16 falling from the sky.
And so on, till the final episode. The question is not IF arabs will win the final battle — the question is WHEN.

Fantomas #32 - "The question is not IF arabs will win the final battle — the question is WHEN"

Interesting hypothesis. This assumes that the 4GW warfare in Lebanon and Gaza will translate over into real armies. Also that all Arabs will act as one. And that the middle east won't be a smoldering ruin.

Could happen. But it's a long way off.

The history of the region suggests that the Isrealis have been the most stable and productive government there for a thousand years or more. We might go back to the Ottoman empire and the Caliphates, but I think the world has moved on. If Arabs do take Israel, it's more likely to be with elections and peaceful demonstrations than guns and silly macho posturing. If Arabs can live peacefully under the Israelis (which many do) at some point some smart Arab is going to ask why are they trying to accomplish with guns what they could easily do with kindness and civility. I'm still waiting on that guy.

Only morons cant learn from the near 200 dead israeli soldiers or the effects of antitank missiles hezbollah had in their pocket.

Wow. 118 dead soldiers is 'near 200'?

Hezbollah fired thousands of anti-tank missiles. About 50 tanks were hit, of which only 20 penetrated the armour. 30 tank crew were killed.

Next time it will be the ground to air missiles and the spectacle of F16 falling from the sky.

Ah yes, the hated F-16. The jihadis might very well shoot one down, but their success against the Israeli Air Force over the last month starts and ends with shooting down a slow, bulky transport helicopter designed 50 years ago.

Not really the sort of 'victory' to strike terror in to the hearts of the Zionists. Far from it, most Israelis seem to want another round.