Is Ehud Olmert crazy like a fox? Hezbollah wants more war and Olmert can grant its wish - my analysis of how Olmert can still do what has to be done.
Hezbollah is unsurprisingly making it evident that, despite its claims, it does not actually accept the terms of the UNSC- sponsored ceasefire that was voted Friday. In fact, with the ceasefire supposed to begin at midnight Sunday, EDT, the Lebanese government does not yet have a plan for implementing it.
Why? Because Hezbollah has arrogated to itself the authority to veto Lebanese government actions:A meeting of the Lebanese government on the disarming of Hezbollah south of the Litani River was canceled on Sunday following an announcement by the Shi'ite organization that it was not willing to discuss the subject. Hezbollah informed the government of its stance through the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Beri, who serves as a conduit to the organization.
Beri informed Prime Minister Fuad Siniora of Hezbollah's decision, and Siniora decided to cancel the meeting. ...
[I]n an interview to Al Jazeera yesterday, Joe Sarkiss, Lebanon's minister of tourism, said that "the army will not deploy in the south unless there are no arms in the south except those of a legitimate military force and UNIFIL."
A Lebanese government source wrote on the Arab internet site Ilaf that "when it comes to crunch time, Hezbollah is refusing to give up its arms."
In other words, (a) Hezbollah will not even discuss being disarmed until not one Israeli soldier remains in Lebanon, and (b) it won't consent to disarmament then, either.
Hizballah, meaning "Party of God", is an Islamist terrorist organization based in Lebanon. Hizballah seeks to restore Islam to a position of supremacy in the political, social, and economic life of the Muslim world. The objectives of Hizballah, as derived from its February 16, 1985 political manifesto, include removing all Western influences from Lebanon and from the Middle East, as well as destroying the state of Israel and liberating all Palestinian territories and Jerusalem from what it sees as Israeli occupation, with no option for any negotiated peace. Guided by these goals, Hizballah's ultimate objective is to establish a radical Shi'a Islamist theocracy in Lebanon. [Italics added - DS]
Having endured a month of Israeli bombs and tanks and even politically prospering under their weight, shall we imagine that Hassan Nasrallah has suddenly decided to beat swords into plowshares simply because the almighty United Nations Security Council has voted?
Hezbollah will probably stop firing rockets into Israel for a brief time, but it won't last. Israel will cease its "offensive operations" as required by the UNSC, but just wait to see how Israel defines "offensive operations" - leaving rocket sites and launcher intact be won't be part of the definition. Israel will continue to bomb Hezbollah launchers or stores. Hezbollah will use its rockets rather than lose them.
News reports have described the Israeli cabinet's latest meeting as divisive and highly contentious. No one in the meeting was able to claim either clear victory or accuse clear defeat. Faced with a divided cabinet and fierce criticism from all sides for accepting the UN's terms, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will order "defensive" ground actions against Hezbollah's strongholds between the border and the Litani. The Israeli military's original plan to encircle, cut off and reduce Hezbollah in the middle will come to fruition.
I am wondering whether that is why PM Olmert ordered the otherwise baffling mission of sending the IDF to the Litani over the weekend after Olmert had already announced Friday morning he would accept the UN ceasefire coming up for vote in the UNSC that afternoon. Knowing that the resolution called for the cessation only of Israeli "offensive" military actions, Olmert pretended that only the cabinet could order a ceasefire for Israeli forces and then scheduled it for the cabinet's next regular meeting rather than convene a special meeting. That gave the IDF at least two more days to advance and consolidate on key terrain along the Litani.
There will now be a brief period of reduced (but not eliminated) combat. Lebanon's government will continue to be stymied by Hezbollah's recalcitrance. But Hezbollah's position will be both politically and militarily untenable for three reasons:
First, it will be impossible for Nasrallah to claim political high ground or military triumph when his army is literally surrounded on the ground by the IDF, which with the IAF will also control lines of communication into southern Lebanon. That's victory?
Second, Hezbollah's entire reputation before this war rested upon its ejection of the IDF from Lebanon, accomplished six years ago. It is that accomplishment that fundaments Hezbollah's regard in Lebanon and its being accorded the status of a "resistance movement" by the Lebanese government rather than a militia. For Hezbollah to submit supinely now when southern Lebanon is under the direct, "boots on the ground" control of the IDF will be emotionally and ideologically impossible to do.
Third, as I said above, Israel will strike again at rocket targets. Then Hezbollah will fire rockets again. Or maybe it will be the other way round - doesn't matter.
Continuing the anti-rocket campaign, the IDF will subsequently strike on the ground toward the Hezbollah-occupied middle between the IDF's southern positions near the border the IDF's northern positions on the Litani. Olmert will insist that this action is still defensive for two reasons: One, Israel has said repeatedly that its entire military campaign has been defensive, and two, he will point out that the IDF is not pushing deeper into Lebanon - not crossing the Litani to go further north. An army that is not seizing new terrain is not on the offense, no?
The reinforcements to UN troops under the new UN resolution will not land while this combat is going on. The UNIFIL troops there may even be withdrawn (maybe).
Maybe, just maybe, Prime Minister Olmert has come to understand that a decision must be reached by force of arms on the ground. Maybe he has churned up the will to make it happen. Maybe he'll wind up using the UN resolution as political cover to do what he should have ordered three weeks ago, when the world's political wind still filled his sails. Now he has to tack against it, which will take longer and cost more lives. But still it must be done.
Maybe Olmert has decided, barely not too late, not to go wobbly. Maybe. But I've said that about him before. All this is speculation, highly dependent on Olmert having developed a stiff backbone since last Friday, a problematic claim in itself. Time will tell. How long? I'm tempted to say not very long, but Olmert has proven to be a champion temporizer. Let us hope someone has advised him of Gen. George S. Patton's favorite saying, "L'audace, l'audace, toujours l'audace!"
And a note to M. Simon: if this is how things work out, then you are right - it will be a brilliant plan, even if it didn't work out exactly as you envisioned.
But I still say that they've been making up a strategy day by day. Anyway, results matter.
Probably have. Or maybe they went through a whole batch of plans and decided the best one was to just kick some hezb'allah butt. I mean, its possible that it is the best plan. Not likely, but still possible.
I mean, if strategy dictates you strike an enemy's weakness, and your enemy is weak all over, don't you just pummel him into submission?
Oh, but the nuance, I forgot about the nuance...
(yuk, yuk!)
So much for the make-believe government of Lebanon.
This region is the diplomatic equivalent of the Barbary Coast.
There are many other possible reasons for this:
a) Iran wants the war to continue (likely);
b) Lebanon's Christian and Sunni Arabs plan to finish the job Israel started (unlikely, but bear in mind that Hezbollah is evacuating its dependents to Syria);
c) Hezbollah figures the cease-fire won't last and prefers to fight an Israeli govt. led by Olmert rather than Netyanhu (possible);
Etc.
"Is Ehud Olmert crazy like a fox?"
No.
This isnt just predictable, its inevitable. There are two key things to understand here:
1. The reason the Israeli capitulation isnt just foolish, but is also pathetic is that there is no peace deal to embrace. The reason there is no viable peace deal is because the causes of the conflict are unreasolved, and unresolveable by the alleged peacekeepers (who do not exist, nor do they have a mandate). No-one is going to disarm Hezbollah, that is simply not going to happen. Which leads us to the next issue.
2.Think of things from Hezbollahs point of view. They have a very simple agenda agenda- the destruction of Israel. Note that the viability and prosperity of Lebanon are nowhere in that equation. Hezbollah has no reason to cease fire. Now that doesnt mean they wont play some short term games, because inducing Israel into an operational pause is useful to Hezbollah. With a few days to rearm and refit, they will be all the stronger while inertia will cause Israel's response to be all the more tepid.
Israel will always, always, always be held to a higher standard of behavior, and Hezbollah knows this. Israel is not withdrawing instantly, and in a few days or weeks, the Lebanese army will deploy to the border and Hezbollah will instantly inflitrate their positions and essentially make a puppet of the Lebanese army. This will have the dual effect of intimidating the UN forces already present and scaring away the additional alleged peacekeepers promised by the UN. Hezbollah will reignite their attacks (which I doubt will have completely been silenced) and Israel will be in an even worse position, because at that point they will have to roll over a Lebanese army with UN support to get at Hezbollah.
And even if Olmert could use this concurrence of events to reinvigorate Israel, it would be just as bad or worse. The man is not up to the challenge, and being slowly pushed into action is not going to solve anything. The man's character is not going to change, even if Israel regains some initiative do to Hezbollah overplaying their hand (and they will overplay their hand) Olmert will hand the initiative back. It is his character, he doesnt understand the value of decisiveness, and he never will. Until this government is overturned there will be no respite for Israel.
#1 Donald,
I'm honored.
I still expect a Bekaa move.
Bekaa is supposedly the main rocket store.
Syria is refurbishing bomb shelters. I have that definitely sourced.
Supposedly Syria was removing mines from the Golan - source? a friend (who I trust) heard it on CNN.
Same friend (next night) said the Golan was alight with flares, same deal, heard it on CNN.
I still like the deception scenario (Olmert is no dummy). I just think it took longer to clear the flanks of the advance than expected. First you put pressure on the bocage all along the front. Then when enough is cleared you attack the flanks.
As to the "canceled sea born assualt of 2 divisions" - Israel lacks the sea lift. Even a helicopter lift of that size would be difficult and expensive in terms of fuel and eqpt. wear.
D-day landed 5 divisions by sea. Does Israel have 40% or even 10% of D-day lift? I don't think so.
Well any way. When I "figured it out" it seemed to fit conditions. Obviously the situation politically is changed. The military situation? About the same as I foresaw. The flanks had to be sufficiently protected so that the soft skinned stuff, beans, ammunition, and POL, could move with light losses. I talked about that in my follow on piece to "Tactics...."
I criticized Olmert for accepting UN 1771. I was so upset with him that I forgot how hard it is for the leopard to change its spots.
I'm over that now.
Here's the greater reason this is a strategic debacle for Israel: lest we forget, Hamas hasnt been made to give up its kidnapee either. In fact Hamas has shown it can act in concert with Hezbollah safe in the knowledge that howsoever it provokes Isreal, Hezbollah has the trump cards, not the Israelis. IDF wants to roll into Gaza again? Not unless they want another 200 rockets landing in Haifa.
Israel can land by sea at most 2-3 battalions at same time.
Guys, enoungh with the amphibious assault. Its a red herring. If Israel treated things seriously they could have blasted a hole in a given point and funneled an arbitrary number of troops into it, and hezbollah couldnt have stopped them. Air or sea assault would have been a minor addendum to that to keep the enemy further off balance. Landing even one division would be complete overkill.. in the time it would take a brigade to disembark a ground based division could roll across half the country.
The point is that there is nowhere on the map of Southern Lebanon that Israeli forces couldnt get to in a day or so via the ground if they wanted to.
We arent reinventing the wheel here, aside from some modern anti-tank weapons that match Israels modern tanks, armored warfare isnt much different from WW2.
Syria is said (radio report, AP) to be massing tanks on the Israeli border.
This is when M. Simon finds out if he was right, or whether this is a monumental bluff.
@ Mark Buehner:
One easy way to distinguish whether or not Olmert is crazy like a fox, or just a patsy (and unfortunately, I'm playing hookey at work and don't have the time to dig for it) -- are the men in the Hezbollah fighting positions being allowed resupplies of food and water?
If so, meh.
If not, the Israelis are using diplomacy to engineer a siege in which the defenders can't shoot back. If so, that's slicker than greased owl s**t.
Thats may be true, but Israel hasnt made a concerted effort to interdict Hezbollah supply lines effectively (ie with ground troops) to date, i dont see how they could justify doing it during a cease fire. I dont even really see how they can continue interdiction air raids against supplies- thats tough to justify as a defensive manuever. To paraphrase Sam Gamgy, 'if this is a siege, than one wall and no roof is a house'.
I wouldnt read too much into reports of Hezbollah front lines being short on supplies. It would be shocking if they werent, theyve been fighting the IDF for over a month. The one thing that shows is that Hezbollah cant hold out against the IDF indefinately, which should be obvious. Thats why ceasefires always favor the weaker party. A couple of days with no bombing and Hezbollah will be able to rotate in fresh fighters and supplies and get nice and dug in.
Syria attacking Israel on the Golan Heights is about as likely as Mexico carpet bombing Dallas. Have stranger things happened? Sure. But nations dont generally commit national suicide by making the identical disasterous mistake they made in their last 3 wars.
I thought it was the IDF that lacked food and water.
IDF general: Troops lacking food can steal from Lebanese stores
To finish my thought- if it is true that Olmert has blinked at the peace deal and is now using it as cover, intending to continue operations, this ceasefire is yet another idiotic mistake. Allowing Hezbollah breathing space to resupply and move troops freely is an obvious blunder. If Israel really has decided they are ok with the war of attrition they have established, this is not the way to fight it. Yet highly characteristic of the way this conflict has been fought.
Generally speaking, no issue there. My predictions have been based on Israel having to do certain things in spite of what their government wants... and I agree with you vis-a-vis Syria, but M. Simon and I already have our running bet on that one.
IMO it is too early to predict what will happen with this so-called ceasefire. We've already seen too many policy reversals by the Olmert government, while Hezbollah's surprising pulic refusal to disarm (everyone expected them to overtly agree to disarm while lying about it) gives Olmert or any follow-on Israel govt. grounds to resume hostilities at any time.
Debka has an article up reporting that Iran is livid at Nasrallah for essentially bringing on this fight and using up the billions in weapons they have given. Its unsourced (as usual) but interesting. Their is an article right alongside reporting Syria is feeling the opposite, and as some have speculated, is readying to try to take back the Golan Heights. So take is all with a mountain of salt.
It does bring up an important issue though- in many a war both sides are convinced they are losing similtaneously. Democracies have a severe weakness in that their media will broadcast their sentiment all over the place, were the fascists like Hezbollah have their propaganda assured by assault rifles. Who knows how badly hezbollah may be hurt, or how Syria and Iran really feel about the current outcome.
I do think this whole embedded journalist thing may be a mistake. The current Israeli advance was governed, not just by the polls, but by what the PM assumed the polls would do. I think going back to media blackouts in warzones and not giving daily status reports is a good idea. I always have found it kind of crazy to see generals spending so much time discussing in detail what is going on in their commands. Israel would probably have bought itself some strategic ambiguity had they kept their mouths shut about goals and methods. Once you set expectations down (retrieve solders, stop rocket attacks) they take on a life of their own. If you never announce it, no-one can say you failed to achieve it.
An Israeli division is much smaller than a WW2 allied equivalent. Something was probably lost in translation, too. Since the IDF is mostly a reservist army, 'divisions' are typically composed of a combination of reservist and full-time units. These 'divisions' - in Hebrew, 'ugdah', plural: 'ugdot' - are pretty ad hoc compared to American divisions. When the reservists aren't called up, the small full-time brigades operate pretty much independently.
In other words, the Israelis weren't planning to land 20-30,000 men on the Lebanese coast. A brigade or thereabouts is more likely.
When one looks at the helicopter-borne landings of several hundred paratroopers a few miles north-west of Metula, a link-up with a force landed north of Tyre would potentially allow the IDF to isolate southern Lebanon from the Bekaa and the rest of Lebanon.
They say the professionals talk about logistics, something I'm sure the Israelis worked hard on. They lost many soldiers pushing to link up with the paratroopers landed by helicopter - and built a road along the way to avoid Hezbollah's mines.