I'm thinking 22 August.

I'm thinking it is not an intel situation but a sotuation so dire that even with intel nothing can be done.

My guess is a nuclear attack with at least 4 or 5 nukes with possibly more in reserve.

I'm thinking the failed Iranian missile test was a false signal.

If that happens and Bush has done nothing to recitfy the situation the world is going into its second nuclear war.

BTW thanks very much for the links.

22 August

It is my opinion that Bush and the CIA have screwed the pooch big time.

It is no longer 1936. It is May 1940.

Time to do the unexpected.

Israel should demand that Nasrallah be charged with war crimes at the UN. The world has already openly admitted that he's guilty of them, therefore the UN must comply. There should be a warrant for his arrest in Lebanon so that he cannot appear in any public place without being arrested. Israel and the US need to insist on this and make it happen.

Ultimately the Mullahs must be defeated by shame and humiliation. They must look to the public like the blood soaked pathological wankers that they are.

Re comment #3 - Israel doesn't want to make war crimes charges because there are more countries wishing to unjustly prosecute them for war crimes than there are countries that would support them in their just charges against others.

August 22? Maybe, but I think it is possible to explain Israel's odd behavior without recourse to mysteries. At first the chief of staff, who is from the air force pushed his theory that air power would be enough so they disregarded IDF plans for ground invasion. When the air power didn't work they gradually increased ground incursions (maybe thinking a few troops could call in air strikes like what was done in Afghanistan). Then they needed more ground toops when they realized the ability of the hezbullah ground forces. Eventually they realized they wasted a lot of time and that the full monty would have been better. Hindsight is easy. Understanding what it is like to lead a country let alone a country in times of war is hard.

This doesn't explain why they didn't bomb hezbullah head quarters in beruit right away, maybe they wanted to keep the leadership intact because they thought hezbullah could be convinced to stop shooting missles when they realized what had been unleashed and they wanted the hezbullah leardership alive to do it. Maybe they thought the captured soldiers were there for a time.

#4

Yes but this is the bizarro world war. It's a window of opportunity to do the otherwise impossible. Plus poetic justice and a nice sendoff for Erik.

M Simon.

I still think the situation is typically murky. If you look at the ME over hundreds of years, it's always murky like this.

Perhaps there is some sort of master plan, and perhaps the Israelis are being constrained by something we have little knowledge of. I don't know.

I originally said the Isrealis were out to shake the bushes and change the political situation. UNIFIL will be beefed up, the UN has once again acknowledged the need to disarm Hezbollah, and there is also an acknowledgement that Israel should defend herself.

They didn't get the soliders back -- that was the big loss. I don't think anybody really expected them to completely destroy Hezbollah, no matter what they said, so that was never in the cards. So far, the plan is playing out exactly as I said it would -- that is, there is no plan.

I am at a loss as to why nobody has mentioned that Israel might have a more urgent strategic objective than destroying Hezbollah, and that this objective might be warping her behavior and ours.

I've asked the questions here . I have seen them posed nowhere else.

It's off-topic, but I have to quibble with your statement "I don't think I've ever seen or heard of a situation where the concerns of a sovereign state were this inscrutable". Surely the current situation in Cuba is even more inscrutable. Is Castro dead, dying, very sick (as alleged), or perhaps just pretending to be dying to see who smiles? Is Raul in charge, struggling (against whom?) to stay in charge, dead, under house arrest, too sick to appear in public, or what, and what justifies his failure to appear? If neither Fidel nor Raul is in charge, who is? No one inside or outside of Cuba seems to have a clue about who, if anyone, is running things, and that's been true for close to two weeks now.

Somewhere in the last few days I read a blog (forgot to bookmark it) that stated IDF intell had the locations of 38 deep Hezbollah bunkers built for rocket storage. They were invulnerable to the current IAF munitions inventory, thus the impetus of the urgent shipment of 5,000 lb "bunker buster" weapons from the U.S. I've lost track of which weekend they were to arrive. Last (5-6 Aug) or this (12-13 Aug)? A couple of days will be required for smart NCOs to configure them to the IAF F-15s. (Pilots drive the trucks, senior NCOs generally win wars 'cause they know how to turn the wrenches.)

Taking all this with a grain for proverbial salt - "I read it on the Internet, it must be true!" This could be another scenario why there is apparent foot dragging by Israel.

Now this does potentially expose another question. If the IDF knew about these facilities, why was the "order" for these weapons not expedited a few months ago? If they had any idea of their depth and the thickness of the roof, fairly simple weaponeering can predict if a particular weapon has the oomph to penetrate. I also sense a bit of arrogance by the IAF that "we can do it all" that others commenting on WOC have noted. Flashback to the Nam - "We can stop the traffic on the Ho Chi Minh Trail in Laos with air interdiction." "Yep, sure GI!"

I don't think there's any master plan other than Olmert being unwilling to take casualties due to his worldview, being excessively concerned with world opinion because of his world view, and hoping to "Send signals" to end a war he didn't start and didn't want.

Comments below on Israel's National Guard units being not up to snuff echo that of Michael Yon's comments about US National Guard units also being unprepared. It's taken forever to mobilize Israeli Reserves. Air power unlike Serbia has proven ineffective. Most of the world hated Israel and wished every Jew dead anyway, so there was no loss there. What is disturbing is that Israeli weakness only invites attack by Egypt, Syria, and Jordan (again). If for nothing else to gain "glory" and keep the Islamists happy.

However, there are bright spots. Hezbollah may be able to rain down missiles at will on Israel, and survive well dug in wrt fortified positions, but it cannot do a thing about the Israeli Air Force which can also range at will anywhere. Hezbollah also seems incapable of doing more than cross-border raids, and has no arty, air force, or navy.

Israel no question lost this War; however another one is looming (or perhaps just the second phase after a routinely violated "cease-fire" which means Israel must stop fighting but Hezbollah can continue). And the weaknesses of Israel's military and poor performance have been exposed. Prompting Israel citizens contemplating another Final Solution to demand reform and aggressive reform at that.

Reserve units will be whipped into shape and mobilization which had been poorly run fixed. A solution found for fortified fighting positions of Hezbollah (likely mass production of drones, robots, etc. backed by precision arty and air). Obsolete tanks re-armored. And the inevitable war with Egypt, Syria, and likely Jordan along with Hezbollah planned for. Perhaps even a first strike since Israel is now afraid once again for her very survival.

I don't think the next-phase War will be like this. Israel being small will move fast, seize initiatives, move to destroy Syrian air and armor along with Egyptian air and armor (either in a pre-emptive attack or counter-attack); and then switch to Hezbollah. One thing stands in mind, Hezbollah for all their dug in success lack mobility.

Larger issue: I think Israel clearly has been afraid of Egypt attacking from the South, hence lack of forces committed in the North.

Maybe the Isralies have almost run out of ordinance that they can devote to the northern front.

It's likely that the Israeli gov't is simply flummoxed by their failure to obtain their goals with methods that worked in the past. The poor past performance of the regular armies of the Arab nation states, and the superior past performance of the IDF perhaps led the Israeli govt to attempt solving a political problem with a military solution. It simply may be that lack of efficacy of the military solution has made the leadership shockingly aware of how precarious their position is, and that they are having trouble processing that revelation.

The will not be a wider war. Iran doesn't have nukes, and doesn't need them to make trouble. In fact nukes would likely bring about the end of the corrupt regime that runs Iran. The Iranian regime is well served by the current Mideast pandemonium. The govt of Iran needs external hostility to remain in power. And the Israeli govt may have come to realize that with America's weakness exposed by the blunder in Iraq, it may not be reliably expected to engage in a war that is not in its own interest.

Countries can be relied upon to fight in their own perceived interests and cannot be relied upon when their interests are absent. That's why Britain fought for Poland in 1939, but not in 1945.

Was just talking to a friend who was noting that there is intense anger toward Israel within the administration for botching the war. He thinks the attitude was, "What's the point of giving them more time when they do nothing with it?"

"After the mishandling of the current conflict against Hezbollah by Prime Minister Olmert, it is widely anticipated that a no-confidence vote will lead to new elections with Netanyahu becoming the next Prime Minister of Israel."

"An army of rabbits led by a lion will defeat an army of lions led by a rabbit."

That's not Napoleon, Tom. That's an Arab proverb.

IsraeliInsider has an illuminating article on how Olmert blew the IDF's plan the first day.

Some senior officers have been mentioning the C-word in private conversations. They have been saying that a coup d'etat might be the only way to prevent an outcome in Lebanon that could embolden the Arab world to join forces with Syria and Iran in an all out assault on Israel, given the fact that such a development would be spurred entirely by the Arab and Moslem world's perception of Israel's leadership as weak, craven and vacillating, and therefore ripe for intimidation.

Suggestion is made here by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz that the military didn't have the resources it needed:

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz said that had the military rushed into Lebanon in the first days of the war, it would have been thrown out of the country by the international community. "A ground incursion takes time to build," he told Channel 10 in a televised interview. Halutz added that he was not afraid of an inquiry commission that might be set up following the war to investigate the decision-making process that led to the launching of the ground operation over a month after war erupted with Hizbullah.

"There are things that need to be inspected," he said. "Including the question of how we got to this situation [war with Hizbullah] six years [after the withdrawal from Lebanon] and how the defense budget reached the point that it cannot provide for Israel's basic defensive needs."

Halutz Defends Timing of Ground Invasion

"This was to have been followed immediately by large scale airborne and seaborne landing operations, in order to get several divisions on the Litani River line,"

This is eroneous at best Israel doesnt have resources to move several Divisions by sea.

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I think C.R.S. is on the money. Its Occams Razor time, and the simplest solution is that Olmert is a jellyfish and the IDF has some serious issues in their command heirarchy. I've been reading accounts of IDF soldiers, and they had orders until recently that went something like "take your squad into this town. Occupy a building. Monitor enemy activity", which is of course a disaster, and how we end up with half a dozen to a dozen Israelis killed all at once while achieving nothing (the last part is the tragedy). The small solace I take in this goes along with what Tom said about leadership, and that is that had the public goaded Olmert into a real fight, it could have been an even bigger disaster to have him wavering at some other crucial moment. Olmert seems just the kind of man to call off the dogs just when the IDF had Hezbollah by the throat. At least this way we dont have to see that!

As far as Halutz goes... guess what bub, the international community threw you out anyway. That is an assinine excuse. The idea that the IDF doesnt have the resources is even more foolish. Why was a single brigade sent in the first ground attack while 2 more division sat twiddling their thumbs? This guy sounds like a head that should meet the block come reorganization time. Hezbollah has no ability to stop a determined Israeli advance. They can bleed them, they can slow them to some extent, but they cant stop them. To date we havent seen a determine advance, though the current one may finally be it. Fittingly the only real advance happens when Olmert has already declared he will evacuate. Very characteristic of this fiasco.

The Netanyahu angle is fascinating. This is a guy that isnt shy to criticize Israeli governments he disagrees with, whatever the circumstance. My read is that he is holding his fire so that either Olmert will step aside voluntary and Netanyahu can slide in without the collateral damage, or if that doesnt happen Netanyahu can deliver a lethal broadside without danger of being seen as a malcontent while the shooting was on. And how could he have known to do this so early? I think Netanyahu knew what kind of guy Olmert was, and knew he could only stand back and wait for the inevitable and try to pick up the peices.

"According to these officers, Olmert was presented with an assiduously prepared and detailed operational plan for the defeat and destruction of Hezbollah within 10-14 days, which the IDF has been formulating for the past 2-3 years.

This plan was supposed to have begun with a surprise air onslaught against the Hezbollah high command in Beirut, before they would have had time to relocate to their underground bunkers. This was to have been followed immediately by large scale airborne and seaborne landing operations, in order to get several divisions on the Litani River line, enabling them to outflank Hezbollah's "Maginot line" in southern Lebanon. This would have surprised Hezbollah, which would have had to come out of its fortifications and confront the IDF in the open, in order to avoid being isolated, hunted down and eventually starved into a humiliating submission."

here

This is what i said July 12:
"The worst possible way to treat this kind of incitement is via the gradual measured escalation. That is what Israel is up in its neck to now. It matches the attacks on it, and pretty soon the 'cycle of violence' crap gets bandied about. When somebody provokes you and you fling yourself at them beating the crap out of them relentlessly until the threat is squashed, nobody brings up the cycle of violence. Being decisive is critical in the early stages because it is often impossible to retrieve later. Think of the International Community as a herd. The herd despises being upset even more than they hate Israel in general. They will always gravitate towards the solution the returns relative calm as quickly as possible. If the Israel response is sudden and complete, Hamas surrendering will be pushed. But if Israel is going tit-for-tat, demanding Israel make a deal and end the engagement will be forced. When your spear is on the other guys throat, nobody wonders how to bring a stop to the fighting.

"If the IDF knew about these facilities, why was the "order" for these weapons not expedited a few months ago? If they had any idea of their depth and the thickness of the roof, fairly simple weaponeering can predict if a particular weapon has the oomph to penetrate."

In the 2nd Pajama Media podcast with Michael Totten, he recounts a conversation with Michael Oren (author of Six Days of War). Oren says that the IDF was surprised by how strong Hizballah's weapons and fortifications were. And I have seen that reported elsewhere also. So they had no idea of these facilities until a few weeks ago.

Oren also says that by now the IDF has cleaned most of them out and Hizballah is not on the offensive anymore.

#19 Mark,

I have come to a similar conclusion. Finally.

Socialism Kills

BTW I link to this here:

Arab Proverb

#19

Nationalism is the problem. Nationalism breeds contempt for peopel who are other, and it allows monsterous atrocities. Nationalism allows moral equivocation. Nationalism has brought a disasterous comeuppance to the nations who come to believe in it. Nationalism is not love of country; it is poison.

PD Shaw (#17)

I think the fight in Lebanon is a part of a broader war with many opened fronts, including diplomatic ones. Thus we should not focus only in the military side of those combats.

I agree that the fastest and safest way to reach the Litani river without full complains of the international community was to proceed slowly, leaving time for Hezbollah to supply new reasons to continue the movement of troops. Israel is in its right to defend itself: a wide array of governments agree on that.

According to the Israeli Insider, it looks like Israel had the correct military strategy to win in south Lebanon.

The Olmert government refused to use it and went with the IDF Chief of Staff's "McPeak lite" approach to war. The end result was that the Israelis committed insufficient forces straight into the teeth of a fully alerted and ready Hezbollah "Maginot line."

This is the most interesting part of the article and it had nothing to do with that:

Olmert's responsibility for inaction goes much further. The US administration had given Israel the green light to attack Syria. A senior military source has confirmed to Israel Insider that Israel did indeed receive a green light from Washington in this regard, but Olmert nixed it.

The scenario was that Syria, no military match for Israel, would face a rapid defeat, forcing it to run to Iran, with which it has a defense pact, to come to aid.

Iran, which would be significantly contained by the defeat of its sole ally in the region, would have found itself maneuvered between a rock and a hard place. If it chose to honor its commitment to Syria, it would face a war with Israel and the US, both with military capabilities far superior to Iran's. If Teheran opted to default on its commitment to Damascus, it would be construed by the entire region, including the restless Iranian population, as a conspicuous show of weakness by the regime. Fascist regimes such as that of the ayatollahs cannot easily afford to show that kind of weakness

The Bush Administration counted on the Israeli government as an ally who could act in its own best interest when its own survival was at stake.

Now it won't make that same mistake twice.

Note, Tom H, that as "Big Government Republicans" the Bush Administration has no faith in the Israeli people forcing Olmert to do what needs to be done.

I think much is being missed, i.e. can't see the forrest for the trees in all of this. First I think Israel achieved much much more than they are being credited for...as typical in todays media and even in some of the blogshpere; we tend to focus on the trees and not see that there is a much wider forrest...so I ask you to indulge me:
First Israel hasn't been able to get a good look at Hezbollah in 20+ years....bunkers they knew nothing about,..they know plenty about now,..and Hez cannot just pick up and move them. Israel found them to be extensive and part of the Hez strategy,..NOW they are a liability to Hez. Secondly: Hez NEVER expected Israel to act this way regarding kidnappings. Nasrallah, Iran, Syria,..as was much of the world, were caught totally off guard...and again giving Israel the clear advantage of surprise...future attacks on Israel will be likely thought about twice before being executed, thus allowing intell a little more time to work prior. Thirdly: Israel pushed Hez's hand further than ever before...exposing their connections once and for all to the World, to the UN, to the public at large. Furthermore they outright linked them to the regime in Iran (Axis of Evil) and THEN confirmed it for the World, this was no secret, but now shows them as a complete proxy of Iran's special forces. Irael even exposed the logistics through Syria, forcing Assad to once again have a flashlight in his face when he thought he was quietly sitting in the park shooting ducks. Lastly (for this brief post), Israel did show that they are willing to march all the way to the Syrian border and even Damascus without FEAR! (IF NEED BE, ASSAD) to get their point across and would do it with US support (albeit somewhat covert)and high support inside Israel. To say that there was no plan and little was achieved is simply not looking at the forrest. I could list 50 other things,..but I hope you get my point.
Just because Israel never divulged their plan to us or even utilized a cookie cutter straregy, they did what IDF does...scare the ever loving hell out of its enemy. They may be crazy like a fox. Hez is not further emboldened, in fact they may even be crippled, if not mangled. The sustained heavy casualties, they were forced to spend much treasure (hard to comeby right now for terrorists), they had to give up their own secrets, they were virtually ineffectual other than sowing terror,..since 75% of the rockets landed in unpopulated areas,and the fact they were forced to expend at least 40% of their est. inventory. The ISraelis even by proxy exposed the media for misreporting (The Reuters photos, AP photos, the actually casualties in Qana), Mostly, Hez lost their stronghold on the Israeli border, forcing at least some Lebs to realize that Hez was the source of their own annihilation, not Israel. Even the Arab League, after the start of the conflict condemned Hez,..when has that happened prior...major Kudos to the IDF, one of the most loyal and well trained militaries in the world. They used restraint, they acted professionally, they achieved much...how about some credit. AND one last thing, we had the opportunity to let this awesome military fight a battle that will enevitably come for us in the WoT. Hezbollah are terrorsist, Iran and Syria have been put on notice that "you are either with us or with the terrorists",..NOW the entire world knows what sides have been chosen. OK Gees,..you guys got my blood pressure up this morning!

LetGodSortem #27:

The population is already streaming back into southern Lebanon, so the notion that there's going to be a "combatant free zone" is just unlikely. But that was bound to happen anyway, since Israel isn't prepared to occupy territory. The critical element is how successful the IDF was at killing well-trained fighters, because those will be harder to re-acquire than hardware, at least in the short term. But given the overwhelming impression that Hez "won", even if by the incredibly low standards set for Arab "victory", will mean that they'll be swampted by volunteers.

Long term I think that something like M. Simon's grand strategy will unfold, not because it'll be well-thought-out, but because the "wind" is moving from high to low pressure, and the imbalance not only still exists, but is probably growing. Because of the perception of victory both Syria and Iran will be more compelled to involvement, and there may be a broader war anyway. Time isn't on our side. That's the one thing we know for sure.

Trent #26:

I feel ill. In short M. Simon was precisely correct about the strategy that Washington sought, but gave too much credit to the Olmert government to act in its own interest. There's currently a lot of "morning after" analysis claiming that some good things came out of this, but the "bad thing" is that Hezbollah can now appeal to both NEED and OPPORTUNITY in their recruitment, fundraising, and supply. They've already reset the balance point significantly more in favor of Islamism and Arabism. Looking for promising lint in the cracks of this disaster just won't cut it. Such an opportunity only comes once, and the price for not taking it may well be untold misery.

Will Israel's population see and understand this, and rebuke their leadership? Now, that might be a silver lining worth having...

Note: Fixed the "Israeli Insider" link in Trent's post #26, as well as unblocking part of his text that was mistakenly formatted as an Insider quote.

Fox is now reporting that Israel says they got Hezbollah's Special Forces commander hours before the end of the cease fire.

I know the message coming out of Lebanon (and this board) is how badly the Israelis screwed the pooch, but if this is a victory for southern Lebanon I'm not sure how many more victories like this they can take. And if this is a defeat for the Isrealis, I'd like somebody to show me the land they gave up.

Dan #31:

It's not a "defeat" for the Israelis. Nor is it a "victory" for Hezbollah, except according to the depleted standard that has evolved for an Arab "victory." But it IS two very important things:

1. An enormous missed opportunity to remake the Middle East, and to all but end the Jihad Menace in one masterful stroke. And that is tragic, in just about every sense I can think of.

2. It resets the balance point in the conflict in the direction of Islamism and Arabism in a way that no one will miss. That makes future wars far more likely, because Israel is now no longer seen as invincible. They can be both slowed down and intimidated, as well as outmaneuvered politically. That reading may give too much credit where it's not due, but make no mistake it will have an impact, and not in a good way.

I generally agree, Demosophist.

I would only like to point out that you can take a picture of a bombed out building, a dead terrorist leader, happy returning Israelis, or a destroyed bridge. Those other things, while perhaps more important, are less tangible.

As I stated a month ago, this wasn't a military problem, but a political one. Israel is worse off now for its recent efforts, because they failed to reasonably consider their true options in light of achievable goals.