4GW: Radiological Bombs, Local Supplies?

The USA is unsure what stage the Muhajir plot was at, but it doesn't appear to have included shipment of radioactive materials from abroad.

The hopeful spin says Al-Qaeda didn't have its own materials, or felt that shipping them was too risky. Which would mean that Al-Qaeda intended to find and use local US sources. The fact that nothing of this sort was used in Afghanistan suggests that this may be true.

One suggestion I've heard is that Al-Qaeda does have a radiological bomb, and is saving it as the centrepiece of an operation involving India. This would be part of Al-Qaeda's plan to incite an Indo-Pakistani war. But then, such toys would not be looked upon kindly even by Pakistan's ISI - who understand the consequences all too well if a radioactive device should go off in India. It's also kind of a "they'd have used it already if they had one" scenario.

They haven't, so they probably don't.

On one level, that's comforting. It means Al-Qaeda hasn't been as successful as they'd like in gaining access to radiological materials, despite a previous Chechen exploit with low-radioactivity substances. Recall, too, those heroic Afghani physicists we talked about several weeks ago. Those brave men kept a substantial stockpile of radioactive materials out of the Taliban's hands though effort, deception and sheer guts.

How much do you think we owe them now?

Even so, it must be acknowledged that international sources for these materials do exist. Worse, security in those places may not be what it should. A good primer on the worldwide situation, including information re: the Stanford Database on that subject, can be found via this excellent San Francisco Chronicle article (29 April 2002). There's also a quick summary in this week's TIME Magazine.

The thing is, if a radiological bomb is your goal, there may also be a number of US sources.

MetaLink had a "jaw-drop-inducing link of the day" yesterday, noting that the U.S. government spent $62 million on a building to store and treat low-level radioactive waste at a California nuclear weapons laboratory, then decided the structure wasn't secure enough.

So where is the waste kept now? Right outside the new building... under tents.

Now, a nuclear weapons lab has a lot of security. Or so you'd think. It's not pleasant reading, but the reports from the Project on Government Oversight, Nuclear Safety and Security are instructive. Holes do exist in the system, and if Muhajir had been very competent and had a good team, it's not impossible to imagine a successful operation to acquire the materials he wanted.

Remember, we're not talking nuclear bombs here. Just radioactive materials.

People like Joseph Cirincione of the CEIP have done a lot of thinking about actions the USA should take to reduce the threat from sources abroad. So, too, has former Sen. Sam Nunn's Nuclear Threat Institute, which has an excellent Harvard study (PDF format) entitled "Securing Nuclear Weapons and Material: Seven Steps for Immediate Action."

The thing is, most of these studies focus on events abroad.

There is nothing wrong with this, and the comparative neglect of these efforts in the crumbling ruin of the Soviet Empire may yet cost America dearly. More should certainly be done. What the Al Muhajir case shows us, however, is that equal attention must also be given stateside. Which means improved security, response capabilities, and perhaps a more balanced view of radiation risks as well.

Al Mujahir failed. Al Qaeda may fail. But America is not the only one who has seen the lesson here. As long as the US has serious enemies, inside or out, this issue will not go away. America needs to be realistic, act responsibly, and get busy.

As in yesterday.

UPDATE: TomPaine.com has some devastating materials on this subject, and they've been up for a while. Kudos to them for being on this issue well before it was fashionable! Meanwhile Paul Wolfowitz, appearing on the Today show, confirmed that Mujahir's intent was to gain access to radiological materials in America. This MSNBC article confirms that, and includes a useful flash module of some dirty bomb scenarios.