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"A Bad News Guy In A Bad News World"

This is how digital Battlespace Magazine characterizes Mike McConnell, America's current Director of National Intelligence. Some of his takes:

  • "...despite recent successes in Iraq, Al Quaida remains the greatest threat to the United States and that the potential for wider conflict over the next 10 to 15 years is going up, not down."
  • Why? Short answer is competition for resources that will involve nations, non-governmental organisations, corporations and terrorist groups.
  • Sadr City in Baghdad, Iraq is cited as an an extremely effective combination of 24/7 surveillance in a limited area, signals intelligence, human intelligence and special operations forces, all working together.
  • Many al-Qaeda representatives in Iraq are headed out and going to North Africa, East Africa and Afghanistan/Pakistan.
  • Largest current worries outside of the spotlight: Yemen, Algeria, Lebanon and Somalia
  • Largest unheralded achievement: Persuading the US intelligence services to cooperate with one another. To some extent.

What he would never say: That the turnaround with Iraqi tribes that had been working with al-Qaeda creates really interesting intelligence opportunities, both via passive collection and via false "refugees". These are worth an awful lot in an intelligence war. It's a tough situation for the enemy. If al-qaeda is terminally suspicious of Iraqis and treats them all badly, they may enhance short term security, but they also create aggrieved members who could become future recruits of various Western and Middle Eastern intelligence agencies.


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