Mubarak will not be defeated in the next elections. Even if the
elections would be 100% fair and free, Mubarak will win. Egypt is a
very complicated case. After more than half a century of brain wash,
outdated education and media, an extremely powerful and large
government, a middle-class of civil servants and in the shade of a
very high rate of illiteracy people must be given the chance, space
and time to learn the practicing of democracy which boils down to two
things that they were banned from for a long while :
CHOICE & PARTICIPATION. Personally, I do not want to see Mubarak
defeated. I only want to see him getting 55-65% to start establishing
some sort of accountability. The 99% Arab regimes kill the basis of
accountability.
Egypt has been living (since Sadat returned Egypt to the multi-
party system a bit less than 30 years) with a very thin democratic
margin, simply because there has been no political will to enlarge
that thin margin and also because the apathy of people did not create
the inevitable pressure.
If I try to sum-up the external achievements of Mubarak's four terms
(1981-2005), I would highlight the following : creating reasonably
good relations with most of the players, honoring the Egyptian/Israeli Peace agreements and (since the death of Arafat)
supporting the Palestinian voice of rationality against the wings of violence and extreme choices.
Though Secretary Rice expounded it patently clear, that USA will not
sacrifice freedom, human rights & democracy any more because of
STABILITY, I believe that the Bush administration wants Mubarak to
win. Personally, I understand such a rational. But such a rational
becomes totally meaningless if the fifth term of Mubarak will continue on the basis of BUSINESS AS USUAL. Actually, this will be a
catastrophe for Egypt, the region, freedom, stability and the interests of the free world. In the next term Mubarak must appoint a vice president, amend the 1971 constitution, move rapidly to a parliamentary republic with most of the authorities in the hands of a PM who could be held accountable, more political freedoms and more economic freedoms, an over-all to Egypt current outdated educational institution and systems, trim the gigantic bureaucracy & corruption and more importantly MAKE EGYPT AN ATTRACTIVE BUSINESS CLIMATE TO ATTRACT 10-15 BILLION $ AND NOT 10% OF THAT SUM AS PER TODAY. I WOULD ALSO LOVE TO HAVE EGYPT FILLING THE FIRST TEN POINTS IN THE REGIME’S AGENDA, THEN WE LOOK AT THIRD-PARTY ISSUES SUCH AS IRAQ, THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE ...etc
When people ask me : is Mubarak a guarantee to avoid the actions of
the Islamic radical movements? ... I always say that I am not trained
to think of people in lieu of systems. Therefore, the guarantee to
avoid any negative developments in Egypt is related to one word
COMPETEMCE. But as you may agree with me, competence can not well
function without political & economic freedoms. So, if Egypt
will be managed (in the short, med. & long term) efficiently in the
political sphere and succeeds in creating a healthy business/economic
environment, trim both corruption and the gigantic role of its very
large government, Egypt will have the insurance against all the
potential negative consequences and developments.
The current cabinet represents one of Egypt's Hugh problems i.e.
selection of leaders. This cabinet has excellent people like Ahmed
Nazif, Mohamed Rashid, Ahmed el Maghrabi, Tarek Kamel, Mahmoud mohi-el-Din & Boutrous Ghali. As someone who was the Chairman of a major oil company for a decade, I can assure you that, by the international
bench-mark, these are well educated, visionary and competent people.
But next to them, there are ministers (actually the majority) that by
the aforesaid international bench-mark are incompetent, outdated, anti-progress and totally useless. Therefore, I wish to see a new cabinet in Egypt full of the modern type of visionary, result-oriented & efficient leaders.
The most important part of this quasi-election are the long-term consequences. Tarek Atia brilliantly notes that the election logo that has become “a permanent fixture on [national] channels… may change things. Intentional or not, the flag immediately attracts young children. “What is that?” they ask their parents. The typical response would probably be much like what Kamelia Hamed told her son when he asked, that the flag is part of the election campaign, which is a process by which the public chooses their leader from among several candidates.
In that simple exchange, a revolution of sorts has already occurred.”