The total news focus this morning is on the arrest of 21 suspected al-Qaeda-related terrorists for a plot to blow up 10 airliners over the Atlantic Ocean, en route to the US from Britain.
British authorities have admitted its fulfillment was very close; US Secretary of Homeland Defense Michael Chertoff said this morning at a televised press conference that the plot was "well advanced." Only in the last two weeks did the investigation of the plot conclude that it was directed at the United States, Chertoff said. He also said the plot was "getting very close to the execution phase."
If the plot had succeeded the death toll might have exceeded that of al Qaeda's attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. Ten Boeing 747 airliners easily carry far more than the 3,000 people who died in New York, Arlington and Pennsylvania.
Flightcrew of three, with two pilots and one flight engineer. Typical two class seating arrangement for 470 (50 business class including 28 on the upper deck and 370 economy class).
Adding the three flight crew and 10 attendants per plane gives a total of 483 souls on board per plane when filled. That capacity filled at only 63 percent average per plane means that more than 3,000 people would have died if all 10 planes crashed.
On Dec. 21, 1988, Libyan terrorists used explosives to bring down Pan Am flight 103, flying from London to New York. The aircraft fell onto Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all 259 aboard as well as 11 persons on the ground.
On July 17, 1996, another Boeing 747, TWA flight 800, blew up after taking off for Paris from Kennedy International Airport in New York. All 230 persons aboard died, the aircraft falling, burning, into the water. An investigation concluded an electrical failure caused the crash.
Update: is there a North Korea connection?
Update: The Telegraph writes about, "How terrorists could have made a 'liquid bomb'"
Update: Commenter Lost Knight at this post on my own site says that the 747-300 is used for cargo flights, having been superceded for passengers by the 747-400. Airliners.net says that the passenger capacity for the dash-400 is 416 plus two flight crew and a flight attendant cohort of (my estimate) 10, making 428 altogether.
If the aircraft targeted by the plotters were modern Boeing 777-300s, the death toll potential looks even worse. It can carry up to 550 passengers (the "all economy high density configuration"). But a "typical" passenger configuration is 386, plus two flight crew and, say, 10 attendants. Even so, 10 "typical" 777s only three-quarters-full carry as many people as died on 9/11, give or take a dozen or so.
That's why some observers say the "Thwarted plot may have been ‘the Big One’."
They tried this back in 1995, and the plot was similarly thwarted.
Eeriely reminiscent of the 9/11 plot in that it was a second attempt at mass murder in which the first attempt barely made headlines and was shrugged off by the intended targets. This time, unlike 9/11, the plot was thwarted again.
Until we treat thwarted plots as seriously as successful ones, I've no hope that we will win the WoT. The British parliment must declare war on Londonistan, or the next time 3000 people die they may be mostly British citizens.
On the good side, it seems that Al Queda remains stupid. Perhaps we should go back and look at other failed Al Queda plots if we want a preview of what is coming next. For example, after the failed attack on USS The Sullivans, the followed up with the attack on USS Cole. LAX is therefore probably still on the target list. Al Queda seems to have taken to heart the mantra, "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again." Which is why its so important to continue to put pressure on them in the field. They may be stupid, but they are learning.
I hate making operational statements, so I won't, but based on what I've heard so far I can already tell you where Al Queda made its big mistake in this plot. Had they concieved the plot correctly, the first we would have heard of this would be when the planes were falling out of the sky. They won't make the same mistake next time.
911 was much more than killing 3000 people, Donald. I know that every life is precious, but there's still a big hole in the Manhattan skyline, and the airline industry was only starting to recover from the devastation to it when this latest event occurred. This is about a lot more than body count. We can afford to lose a thousandth of a percent of the population--this is a war after all, but we can't afford the damage to the economy, which affects us all, globally.
The '95 plot by Khalid Shaikh Mohammed: Operation Bojinka
Interesting that they decided to go back to this, rather than try and replicate 9-11.
Early word is there are a lot of Pakistani ties. Makes sense. Pakistan, home of the sharer of nuclear secrets, and part-time host of Bin Laden...
Not that surprising, Tagryn. The tactics of 9/11 were obsolete before the last aircraft crashed into the ground.
It is not likely that the islamacists have figured out how, with improvised weapons, to control the entire aircraft cabin against hostile passengers.
Last I heard it was assumed that this was an al-queda inspired event, but not an actual al-queda strike. Possibly planned by an independent group not in the general planning of terrorist groups, this would explain why they would try a repeat attack on airlines, which is now more difficult than 4 years ago.
You see, there's this pool of extremists, and we knock them off one by one.
It's a war of attrition. We slowly kill them off and let them wail in their final throes.
It's not like they're western-raised-lower-middle class-homegrown-internet-trained-jihadists with some lame-ass identity existential crisis...
I'd like to see those unamerican bendover backward unpatriotic surrender monkey liberals NOT justify OIF since the war in Iraq helped prevent this totally related act of terrorism. Come to baghdad you jihadist pussies, I dare you. We got it locked down bitches...
The picture is not a 747. 747's have a hump above the nose and 4 engines. No little upturned winglets on the wing tips (I forget the technical name).
Do I get a prize for spotting fauxtography? LOL
So hyphypocrisy, are you suggesting we invade Pakistan? Or England? I'm confused....
Notice the mention of wire transfers? I wonder if that illegal SWIFT operation triggered the investigation into the plot.
Yep. Let's shut that puppy down. That's dangerous.
Actually, M. Simon, that picture does have four engines, and the hump on the upper level is also there. The wing occludes the point where it tapers back down to the main body of the fuselage, making it difficult to notice. And 747s do have the slightly upturned wingtips. At least, some do:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747family/images/747-400F_topshot_375.jpg
M., that's a late-generation 747-400. The bubble on top is extended relative to that on the first generations or 747. (The return curve down to the main fusilage is obscured in the picture by the wing). Here's a link to a better image:
747-400
So no, no fauxtography prize-soup for you!
I just hope Bush wasnt spying on these terrorists. That would be the real crime in all this.
#2 Rand - quite true, but the destruction of 10 airframes wouldn't mean anything like the loss of several buildings in the financial district of NYC. The loss of human life on 9/11 was and remains the severest blow of the day. Today's busted plot had no target at all except human beings.
This plot was focused on mass murder, pure and simple, and economic effects from it would have been just bonus effects. In fact, OBL said on a videotape captured in A'stan during Enduring Freedom that he never expected the towers to collapse. He was just trying to kill people.
#14 from Donald Sensing: "Today's busted plot had no target at all except human beings.
This plot was focused on mass murder, pure and simple, and economic effects from it would have been just bonus effects. In fact, OBL said on a videotape captured in A'stan during Enduring Freedom that he never expected the towers to collapse. He was just trying to kill people."
That's right. It's about making a wide slaughter, as commanded in the Koran.
This is jihad. Allah promises that through Muslims implementing the doctrine of jihad, Islam will dominate. Our enemies believe that promise and they are acting accordingly.
Donald, I think that Rand may have been referring to the potential loss of confidence in air travel, bankruptcy of some of the still-teetering carriers, and so on rather than just the loss of 10 planes.
I think Donald Sensing's view is that Osama Bin Laden isn't following a strategy in the Western sense. Rather, he knows what he wants, and he knows (from Allah) how to get it: through jihad, that is aggressive violence and traditional propaganda. Literally, good Muslims will slaughter with a will as Islam directs, and say the sort of boastful, deceitful, manipulative things Muslims have been saying since Muhammed (pbuh), again as Islam directs (say this, tell them that, command, forbid, etcetera) and Allah will grant victory, insha'Allah.
If Donald Sensing's view is as I understand it to be, I agree.
Bonuses, knock-on benefits of spectacular slaughter, are just what Osama Bin Laden would expect from worthy jihad efforts, given that Allah has so ordered the world that Muslims' faithful adherence to His commands will lead Islam to universal domination, no matter how averse the infidels are to that outcome.
But Al Qaeda is slaughtering, to the best of its ability, it is not strategizing in a Western sense.
We are fighting something like one of the early chess playing computer programs, when they had paper programs, detailed sets of written instructions. The technician going through the drills as dictated by the paper program is not your opponent, the program is your opponent, just as if you play Chessmaster on a board with someone sitting at a board and making the moves he sees on the screen, you are really playing Chessmaster not him.
A paper program may be primitive, but it will unfailingly beat very soft opponents, those who don't grasp the moves, don't want to play and walk away from the board (losing on time) and so on. It's hostility is inexorable, and if you don't fight you lose. That, plus the sheer horror and demoralizing evil of jihad, as opposed to the pretty and bloodless abstractions of chess, is what we are up against.
My life is more at risk driving down the freeway surrounded by lumbering Navigators, which exist in such abundance largely due to the Oilmen like those in the Bush Administration, than terrorism. Not even close. But there are precious few politicians willing to stand up and tell it like it is. No one is going to get elected by telling Americans that they will do a thousand incremental things that will sum to a greatly improved and more secure life when they can go around scaring people about them foreign "Islamofascists" who are going to blow up Amish popcorn factories....such individuals routinely get shouted down and ridiculed as weak idiots by a chorus of Republican mouthpieces and their corporate Media choir.
The only thing that is saving us from more frequent terrorist attacks is that there are a lot of agencies that the White House can't fully control (like the NYPD), which are actually engaged in counterterrorism and are trying to protect us. Making us more secure works against the National Republican's political ambitions. So why should they? In fact, everything they've done so far (destroy FEMA, Homeland Security, invade Iraq) has only served to make terrorism against Americans more likely to occur and more lethal once it does.
Our only hope really is getting these self-interested bozos the heck out of there.
I've always argued that Al Qaeda effects us most by hitting us in our comfort zone. The things we take for granted most, are the potential targets that will cause the most damage if struck. Not so much from physical damage, but psychological effect. Cheap & easy travel, food & water supply, etc.
At the risk of being off topic, Andy, you make a good point. Those large SUVs on the highway blatantly endangering your life are a result of those nasty "oilmen in the Bush administration". The prosperity of America is in large part due to the entrepeneurial spirit. For what the opposite looks like check out this link:
http://conflictiran.bl*gspot.com/2006/06/inside-north-korea.html
I'll bet the mortality rates on these highways are really low. KJI really is a great man!!! Protecting his children from random death by SUV!.
Regards,
Snowflake
#12 Mark,
Damn. I did some design work and design testing on the 747-400 electrical system too! They had a really neat system for detecting current flow into the generators when the generators were cross connected (normal operation). Phase sensors etc. Very sophisticated for its time: '88.
Never paid that much attention to the photos. Seen one 747 seen 'em all was my attitude.
Thanks guys for keeping me honest.
Simon
For those interested in terrorist financing aspects of the plot, David Nordell of the Terror Finance Blog has a good post about that here.
An excerpt: