Canadian defense reporter David Pugliese, who I happen to respect, is talking about a recent phenomenon in Pakistan. The Taliban and al-Qaeda are going around executing several people in each village, claiming that these individuals have been snitching out their positions and meetings in Pakistan, to trigger Predator UAV strikes.

As a friend put it to me a while ago, "unfortunately, not all of the people killed as American spies, actually aren't." Al-Qaeda probably has little idea, unless the ISI intelligence service is running cell phone intercepts for them (which is possible) - but it doesn't matter. Pick a few of the locals who don't seem happy enough about your presence and conduct, and kill them. Some may in fact be making cell phone calls to the Americans. Even if no-one is, however, the message is clear. And even semi-blind lashing out can end up doing a fair bit of damage to America's intelligence networks in this area. It has before.

This sort of conduct by al-Qaeda builds up a certain amount of desire for revenge, of course, but that will only break into the open if you lose control. With a base of informants and sympathizers in many tribes along Pakistan's frontier, and a very substantial manpower advantage of levies from these tribes, they can probably get away with it for now. Even if pushed, the tribes will remain divided. A united tribe might revolt on its own, though even there, the prospect of strong outside help matters - as it did Iraq's Anbar Awakening. A divided tribe will not revolt, unless confronted by an entrenched enemy that has also penetrated the tribal structure, and can wait for an event that offends the tribe as a whole.

That preparation may exist in some parts of Afghanistan, where al-Qaeda and their Taliban allies can be expected to export this tactic in the near future.