As I understand it, al-Zawahiri's opinion on the Brotherhood isn't so much that they're traitors as it is that he sees them as misguided fellow travelers that he hopes to convince to fully embrace al-Qaeda and its objectives rather than what he sees as half-hearted efforts regarding the establishment of an Islamic state. How al-Qaeda regards Islamic parties in general participating in the democratic process has always been somewhat murky, since despite their public denunciations of democracy they have no problem making common cause with the Algerian FIS, the Pakistani MMA, the Malaysian PAS, and so on. If I had to guess, I would say that they believe that it is acceptable to embrace democracy or at least the democratic process when they think they can win ("one man, one vote, one time") but are far more wary about allies or even potential allies like the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood entering politics for fear that they will be compromised by the inherent moderating nature of democracy and gradually lose interest in their theocratic objectives.

What is far more interesting than al-Zawahiri's denunciation of the Brotherhood, however, is how they reacted, which seems to have taken place on two fronts.

The first is a defense of their involvement in Egyptian politics:

“Those opposing the participation in power of moderate Islamist movements are the Americans, authoritarian Arab regimes, radical secularists ... and Ayman Zawahiri. Isn’t that a strange alliance?” “It is in Al-Qaida’s interest to claim that our gains are useless because our movement does not believe in violence, but Zawahiri’s stance serves neither Islam’s interests nor the nation’s,” Erian added.

That's about as close to the usual pro forma denunciation of al-Qaeda as Essam al-Erian comes, however. Far more interesting is this statement, however:

'What's strange is that al-Zawaheri did not know about the warning from the European Union, the United States and (Israeli Premier Ariel) Sharon against Hamas in the Palestinian legislative elections,' al-Erian continued.

The EU said in December that it might halt its aid to the Palestinian Authority if Hamas wins the elections.

'We are waiting to see where al-Zawerhi stands,' al-Erian added.

The implication of that last statement, at least as I read it, would seem to be that if al-Zawahiri turns around and supports the Brotherhood on this one that they might be inclined towards some kind of informal quid pro quo. This is something to keep in mind as far as US policy towards Egypt is concerned - we definitely need to keep pressing for political reform there, but we do not need to embolden a movement flirting back and forth with al-Qaeda in the cultural center of the Arab world.

With respect to al-Zawahiri's claim that Bush needs to admit defeat in Iraq, we already saw hints of this in his instructions to Zarqawi to start making plans for after the US leaves so here again this isn't anything particularly new, nor is it being repeated simply for propaganda value. Regardless of whether or not al-Qaeda in Iraq under Zarqawi can take and hold Iraq (and I still maintain that this can't just be dismissed off-hand), the fate of the country after the US leaves was always a secondary consideration to their ultimate goal of defeating the United States.

Zarqawi helps to clarify this in his own recent audiotape:

"First, chase out the invaders from our territory in Palestine, in Iraq and everywhere in Islamic land. "Second, install sharia (Islamic law) on the entire Earth and spread Islamic justice there (...). The attacks will not cease until after the victory of Islam and the setting up of sharia," he swore.

One might recall that al-Qaeda regards "Islamic land" as stretching from Morocco to the Philippines and encompassing a number of decidedly non-Muslim regions (in addition to a lot of Muslim regions whose populations would probably not desire rule from al-Zawahiri and bin Laden), notably Iberia and much of the Indian subcontinent. I have expressed here and in other forums for my concern in that I believe there is a lot of pressure for the GOP to abandon Iraq before the 2006 mid-term elections for domestic political advantage and whether or not that fear has any basis in fact one of the things that al-Zawahiri's message makes clear and one that political leaders on all sides need to recognize is that the violence from al-Qaeda is not going to stop no matter what happens in Iraq - particularly if, as the critics allege, they now have a huge pool of new recruits with which to hurl against our interests and those of our allies. One other thing to be noted regardless of the events on the ground is that if we frame any US withdrawl or draw-down from Iraq out of a desire to remove our troops from harm's way that we have given the enemy an enormous propaganda victory that frankly I don't believe they've earned. Of course, no defeat is usually ever seen as such when it first occurs - US withdrawl Somalia, which was framed much the same way (a desire to remove US troops from harm), certainly wasn't seen as a defeat while the withdrawl was occurring back in 1993.

Having said that, it is worth noting that Zarqawi claimed in his audiotaped message that he had been personally ordered by bin Laden to carry out the recent rocket attack on northern Israel. ICT has a pretty good summary and background info on that particular attack, which notes that if it was al-Qaeda it seems that the Saif al-Adel's master strategy is still very much in force.

I would also think that this should be kept in mind for the future:

The Third Phase This is described as "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.

This is something to keep in mind concerning al-Qaeda's continuing efforts to attack Jordan, Turkey, and Israel and is worth watching given the rather volatile nature of the Syrian government at present following the defection of former vice president Khaddam. Also, if the US efforts to seal the Iraqi border with Syria are as successful as the US military believes, preparing these cadres might be one reason why we haven't seen more action against Damascus at present.