JUNE 30/03: Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted, who spent his last couple of weeks training M-1 tank crews. Welcome back, Drew - we're sorry to hear about Katharine Hepburn too.
TOP TOPICS
* Will Iraq be a democracy? Not any time soon, as U.S. military commanders have halted local elections in favor of placing hand-picked administrators in key positions. How this will affect U.S.-Iraqi relations has yet to be seen, but there's no doubt it will cause further friction. (Hat tip: The Command Post)
* Dan Darling's superb briefing on al-Qaeda commander Abu Musab Zarqawi, the man Colin Powell mentioned by name in his pre-war speech to the U.N.
* Meanwhile, the Iranian mullahs have thrown the dice on a high-stakes gamble by arresting 4,000 people. Either they've just broken the planned July 9 General Strike, or they've deepened the crisis and really upped the level of public hatred just before a huge mass event (Hat Tip: M. Simon). Team member Iraniangirl has some thoughts.
Today's Topics Include: Iraq and Vietnam; WMD update; Palestinian truce or transparent ploy?; Iran Reports; NK nuclear test coming in 2003?; A U.S. Foreign Legion?
IRAN REPORTS
* Amid concerns Iran may be concealing a nuclear weapons program behind its nuclear power program, the UK raised the pressure on Iran to open their program to UN inspectors. That sounds familiar somehow.
* Interesting ambivalence at Iraniangirl re: Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah of Iran. Winds of Change.NET has covered him before.
* Pejman points to a superb open letter by expat Mohsen Moshfegh to Iranian reformists, arguing that their preparations need to go beyond demonstrations to include what comes next if the mullahs fall. Lots of good points here. (Hat Tip: Buzzmachine, who also has a good piece from Blue Bird Escape, an American girl visiting her homeland.)
IRAQ BRIEFING
* Iraq equals Vietnam was a rallying cry of the antiwar Left in the months running up to the war. Perhaps they weren't as far off as the pro-war camp believed. U.S. officials claim they are now facing multiple resistance movements to the American occupation. Major fighting may have ended, but the war goes on.
* The United States is fighting to end that resistance, launching a new drive intended to eliminate the Iraqi resistance fighters.
* Iraqi resistance could, in part, be part of an Iraqi prewar plan to destabilize U.S. occupation through economic sabotage. If so, the continued failure to track down Saddam Hussein could be a crucial failing in the American occupation plan.
* Porphyrogenitus points to the potential for a general uprising in Iraq (link requires registration) sometime in the next week. Following up on the Vietnam/Iraq parallels, could such an uprising be this war's Tet Offensive? As in early 1968, the perception in Iraq right now is that the United States is winning (or has won) the war. Tet, a military disaster for the North, turned the tide of public opinion in the U.S. A massive uprising in Iraq might have similar effects today.
* David Adesnik of Oxblog offers his assessment of the occupation of Iraq. Where many see disaster, David sees more success than the media may recognize.
* So does David Warren.
* WMD update: though the United States is citing an Iraqi who claims Hussein planned to reactivate his nuclear program once UN sanctions were lifted, there have still been no confirmed finds of Iraqi weapons, nuclear or otherwise. So the question remains, did the U.S. and Britain mislead the world about Iraq's WMD programs, or are there significant flaws in several Western intelligence agencies?
* Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker."
* The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated April 1, 2003
U.S.A. HOMELAND SECURITY
* Various Senate committees listened recently as U.S. intelligence and law enforcement community members linked the threat from al-Qaeda in America to Saudi financing of Wahhabi institutions. Concerns include sleeper cells the FBI is currently pursuing in over 40 states. People sounding the alarm included Democrat Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), but similar concerns came from several directions and sources.
* Martin Kramer explains why it matters that the farce of Middle Eastern Studies on many U.S. campuses is finally coming in for serious Congresssional scrutiny. "Title VI" programs that promote foreign area studies may also get some overdue adult supervision.
THE WIDER WAR
* A fruture United States Foreign Legion or just a U.N. replacement for peacekeeping? Donald Rumsfeld's latest idea (UID & PWD both = 'laexaminer') is about taking some pressure off U.S. armed forces by having the U.S. build its own multinational peacekeeping force.
* Is this a breakthrough, or simple misdirection? Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Fatah all declared a three-month cease fire against Israel, although with conditions attached. If it holds up, it could certainly mark a significant milestone in the peace process, but it could simply be a ploy as suggested by both Steven den Beste and Charles Johnson.
* JK: I vote for "ploy". Meanwhile, in related news the USA is less than happy with Syria, and is apparently communicating that.
* In North Korea, the stakes may be raised yet again, with the warning the North may test a nuclear device by the end of the year. (Hat tip: Rantburg)
* American troops may soon be en route to Liberia, as pressure builds for intervention in that beleaguered nation. (JK: There may be some in the neighbourhood right now)
* LaughingWolf links to a declaration by Australia regarding their future foreign policy direction. Interesting.
* We try to close on a lighter note if possible. On that note, check out this interview with Comical Ali, Saddam Hussein's version of Ari Fleisher. (JK: 3rd item down, and the story of his payment is amusing too)
Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we've missed something, use the Comments section to let us know.
I'd say it's worth taking a deep breath. People forget what a precarious hell-hole Europe was for several years after World War 2. These kinds of disruptions and "life sucks" are normal. People will complain - that's only human - but that doesn't mean doom is nigh.
As for Vietnam, Michael Totten noted this sharp exchange from Donald Rumsfeld:
"When a reporter identified the Vietnam War during the briefing as "your classic quagmire," Rumsfeld cut her off and said: "There are so many cartoons where people, press people, are saying, 'Is it Vietnam yet?' hoping it is and wondering if it is. And it isn't. It's a different time. It's a different era. It's a different place.
... "It took eight years before the founders finally adopted our Constitution and inaugurated our first president," he said, adding later: "Were we in a quagmire for eight years? I would think not. We were in a process ... evolving from a monarchy into a democracy."
What he said. I hear the concern behind your characterization, Andrew, and I know there's no more to it than that. I'm not ready to panic just yet.