Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted.
TOP TOPICS
* Those who believe President Bush is going wobbly on Iraq received some confirmation from Colin Powell, who promised to adapt the U.S. proposed UN resolution on Iraq to meet the concerns of its opponents. The U.S. appears to be well on its way to giving away the fruits of victory by handing Iraq over to the United Nations rather than continuing the fight on its own.
* Conversely, the President announced that he will request $87 billion for the war on terror in fiscal 2004, and says the United States will spend whatever it takes to win the war. The two decisions are not necessarily mutually contradictory, of course. The U.S. could easily turn Iraq over to the UN while still spending billions to try and win the war some other way...if that's possible.
* The UK is expected to send an additional 3,000 troops to Iraq within weeks, perhaps alleviating some of the supposed troop shortage and reducing the need for the U.S. to go to the UN.
Other Topics Today Include: another Saddam loyalist captured; what was Saddam thinking?; Israel continues to keep the pressure on Hamas; Taliban fighters continue to struggle in Afghanistan; and there's a new Palestinian Prime Minister on the horizon.
IRAQ BRIEFING
* American troops from the 4th Infantry Division captured a Saddam loyalist suspected of carrying out attacks on Coalition troops. Some small arms were captured, but no surface-to-air missiles. The source of the SAM launched at an Air Force C-141 Saturday has yet to be discovered. While a military spokesman claimed the plane was never in any danger, it will only take one successful SAM attack for a massive propaganda victory for the Islamofascists.
* The search for weapons of mass destruction continues. Although the U.S. continues to claim Iraq possessed WMDs prior to the invasion, they have yet to turn up. While their existence or lack thereof is unlikely to change any minds on the war itself, the question of the efficiency of U.S. intelligence remains quite important.
* Newsweek asks a question many Americans would like answered: what was Saddam thinking? Saddam was apparently convinced that France and Germany could prevent the United States from invading Iraq. While his stupidity is now a matter of public record, the evidence U.S. deterrence is so worthless is important to remember as we negotiate in places like Korea and Iran.
* Though reports continue that the Coalition needs many thousands of additional troops for Iraq, Colin Powell says the U.S. is expecting only an additional 15,000 troops to be added if the UN resolution passes. One hopes that the U.S. won't give up too much for so little.
* Barbara Amiel has an interesting article in the Telegraph pointing out what seems obvious to many of us: bringing the UN into Iraq is a near-certain means of leaving Iraq as bad as we found it, if not worse.
* Multiple bloggers have cited reports of small successes in Iraq and asked why the mainsteam press isn't reporting on them. Now Donald Rumsfeld is asking the same question. It will be interesting to see if the press answers any of his questions. I won't hold my breath.
* Continuing attacks on mosques threaten the possibility of religious strife adding to the mix of factions fighting for control of Iraq. Given the past history of accord between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, such a fight is by no means assured, but each additional attack increases the chances of it happening. This will be an important issue for the U.S. to address, as the fight in Iraq is as much propaganda as it is military now.
* The President laid out the state of the war last night, noting that the Coalition has made progress in Iraq, but that much work needs to be done. The words were good, but our enemies will be far more interesting in watching our actions.
* Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker."
* The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated April 1, 2003]
IRAN REPORTS
* Iran is now warning that excessive pressure regarding its nuclear weapons program may backfire and result in the government taking a more hardline stance. Sounds more like an excuse not to open up their program; if the pressure goes down, they don't have to let anyone in, and if the pressure goes up, they can stand fast and claim 'national soverignty.' Meanwhile, the clock is running until they have weapons of their own.
U.S.A. HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING
* Government programs can't be counted on for much, so it's no surprise the U.S. Department of Homeland Security remains in disarray six months after its creation and two years after 9/11. Expect the solution to be announced soon: they need still more billions of dollars.
THE WIDER WAR
* Another promise of future al Qaeda attacks has surfaced. Given the paucity of al Qaeda's efforts post-9/11, this sounds like more chest beating from a group that is hard-pressed to cause much damage outside its own backyard. Hat tip: The Command Post.
* Israel continued to ramp up its own war on terror, attacking a Hamas weapons cache in the Gaza City home of Abdel Salam Abu Moussa. Hamas officials are looking for revenge after Israel's failed attempt to kill Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. If Israel continues its attacks on Hamas, however, they may succeed in forestalling that revenge, as Israel is far superior to Hamas militarily.
* The Taliban may be trying to regain power in Afghanistan, but they're learning that the United States may have a little more tactical patience than they had believed. The latest American strikes in southeastern Afghanistan have reportedly killed some 200 of the 1,000 Taliban fighters believed to remain in the country. This process is likely to continue as long as the Afghan government appears not to have complete control of the country, so U.S. patience will continue to be tested.
* The International Committee of the Red Cross reports Burma's dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi is not conducting a hunger strike, despite reports by the U.S. State Department. Does this represent an intelligence failure by the State Department, or is the ICRC telling the world what the Burmese government wants to hear to maintain access?
* We've finally found something both Israelis and Palestinians can agree on: it's the United States' fault the peace plan didn't work. What a shock.
* With Mahmoud Abbas now a memory, Arafat nominated Ahmed Qureia to succeed him as Prime Minister. Sadly, it's unlikely Qureia will be any more successful than Abbas in moving the conflict towards any kind of resolution.
* Donald Rumsfeld stopped by Afghanistan to visit the troops and offer public support to the Afghan government. While support is all well and good, the Afghan government may need some more concrete support to help it establish itself as a truly independent entity.
* With the United States reportedly considering inducements to encourage North Korea to renounce nuclear weapons, it is now having to deny it is going soft on the issue. Keeping the North Koreans guessing is not necessarily a bad policy, but the U.S. had best be careful it's not giving North Korea, or anyone else, the idea it can be cowed so easily.
* We try to close on a lighter note if possible. It probably doesn't take a genius to realize that playing with explosives can be dangerous. That warning comes too late for Hamas terrorist Abu al-Hasmi, who died Sunday when the explosives he was working on for a suicide bomb went off, killing him. That's a shame.
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The Amiel article starts off as a worthy criticism of the United Nations but then veers off into typical journalism noir. Too difficult, too costly, Arabs naturally gravitate towards nomadic banditry with scimitars, and so forth. And with all due respect to Daniel Pipes, democracy was barely a glimmer in either Japan's or Germany's eyes - Weimar and Meiji notwithstanding - before it was forced upon them after the Second World War. They picked it up pretty quick.
And what's with the double-standard that believes only America must overcome ethnic division?
This one is a beauty:
As if terrorism and catastrophic weapons have nothing to do with authoritarianism. And Iraq should have a regime that comes "naturally"? Sorry, Barbara, but rule of the strong is what comes naturally. Consensual governance is a miraculous suspension of human nature. I tell you - though I do say it partially joking - the second-greatest threat to the free world is Baby Boomer relativism.
The problem with complainers is that because nothing successful ever works out perfectly, they're always partly correct.
fruits of victory?
they can have their dirty sandy pile of rust.
Why does most arabs think we want to colonize iraq?
Please! They thought we were going to colonize afghanistan.. Oh yeah right.. we let the mexicans colonize california, best most beutiful part of america, and you think we want to colonize iraq? No, we are just to damn nice that is all.