Andrew's Winds of War: 2003-09-22

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Major Olmsted (JK: That's "Major Olmsted" now), and is split into an Iraq Report and this briefing on the Wider War.

TOP TOPICS

• Winning the war against the Islamofascists is still a long-term project; The Braden Files reposts a Stratfor article by Dr. George Friedman that examines al Qaeda's goals and strategy 2 years later, and notes what the United States needs to do next to keep the pressure on.

• A Muslim Chaplain assigned to Guantanamo has been charged with: sedition, aiding the enemy & espionage. Further details here.

• Khalid Shaikh Mohammed has apparently told U.S. interrogators that the scope of the 9/11 plot was originally far larger, involving ten planes taking off from both coasts. While the first instinct on hearing this is to thank our lucky stars they scaled the attack back, one wonders how much of this is true and how much is bravado.

Other Topics Today Include: The EU, Russia & Iran's bomb; Too late to stop a nuclear Iran?; China's NK dilemma; Japan backing away from no-nukes tradition; The Taliban on the rise again in Afghanistan; Afghan battle reports; Syrian WMD; Is Israel preparing to ramp up the war; Israelis happy despite all; No, Geitner - I AM your father....

IRAN UPDATES

• Will the EU cut a deal with Iran over their nuclear weapons program? There's no way to know yet, but Pejman points to reports of a letter to Iran from Britain, France and Germany that might have offered a quid pro quo. Or they may simply be trying to bring more pressure to bear on Iran; but that really doesn't seem like France's style.

• Russia is suggesting it could take a long time for them to provide fuel for the nuclear reactor they're building for Iran. Is this the result of U.S. pressure? Probably not; it looks like it's just a business deal that's hit a rough patch. But the delay still buys time for the U.S. to address the Iranian nuclear program.

• JK: Or does it? This Bulletin of Atomic Scientists report doesn't sound good - it says we have just 6-9 months until we hit the "red line". Michael Ledeen is hearing corroborating things from his sources. (Hat Tips: Blog Iran!)

HOMELAND SECURITY

• Perhaps another small victory, as federal authorities are investigating possible terrorist financing by the Mosque Foundation in Bridgeview, Illinois.

THE WIDER WAR

• Barry talks about the dilemma the Chinese face in North Korea; protect their ally and risk the rise of other regional powers, or abandon the North and face a united Korea on their borders.

• It's a pressing problem, as The Marmot points out the Japanese may be backing away from their non-nuclear stance.

• Jimmy Carter brands North Korea the world's greatest threat to peace, a rare burst of clarity for him. But he lets us know he's still Jimmy Carter by pointing out the problem is really America's fault.

• The Marmot also takes the time to properly fisk a Michael O'Hanlon piece urging new measures towards North Korea that sound suspiciously like further appeasement.

• Afghanistan remains a target rich environment for killing terrorists, but their numbers raise the disturbing question, are we killing enough of them fast enough. Alan Brain points to reports that the Taliban is making a comeback in some areas of Afghanistan, a threat that needs to be addressed.

• Team Agonist reports that Operation Mountain Viper has killed two Taliban leaders, however: Mullah AbdurRahim and Mohammed Gul Neyazi. Afghan forces also captured three Pakistani soldiers this weekend, reminding us all that Pakistan's position in the war hasn't really been settled yet. (Hat tip: The Agonist).

• Meanwhile, the new Afghan government may need a few more lessons in how not to gain popular support, as Atrios notes a disturbing report from Kabul. However, if the scandal brings down Karzai's government, that's not necessarily a bad thing in the long run, as the Afghan's could learn a valuable lesson about ensuring that government remains their servant, not their master.

• What lessons did Syria learn from Iraq? Apparently not many, as Geitner Simmons notes the continuance of the Syrian WMD program despite their role in Saddam Hussein's fall from grace.

• There's a report that Israel will invade Gaza later this year. If true, this could mark a turning point in the war, as Israel could take the fight not only to Arafat, but to Hamas and Islamic Jihad as well.

• Terrorism may be an even bigger failure than al Qaeda realized, as Michael Totten points to a survey that indicates that Israelis are happier, on average, than Americans or Canadians, despite their strenuous living conditions. Or maybe because of them.

• We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Self-discovery isn't always what it's cracked up to be. Geitner Simmons took a survey that measures your political philosophy by assigning it a country. The results weren't quite what he expected.

On to Andrew's Iraq Report, 2003-09-22...

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