Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Andrew Olmsted of Andrew Olmsted dot com.
TOP TOPICS
- Pakistan has agreed to a cease-fire with the militants pinned in South Waziristan in order to allow tribal elders to negotiage their surrender. But it is looking less likely that al Qaeda number two man Ayman al-Zawahiri is among those caught in the Pakistani net.
- Israel is planning a systematic war against Hamas, characterizing the terrorist group as a strategic enemy of Israel. As Israel prepares to withdraw from Gaza, they want to inflict as much damage as possible to Hamas while they are still in proximity to the terrorists. This strategy appears to have already borne fruit, as Israeli forces killed Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, spiritual leader of Hamas, with an airstrike on his car while he was en route to a mosque.
Other Topics Today Include: rocket attacks in Baghdad; power sharing in Iraq; the value of UAVs; IAEA 'suspicious' of Iran's nuke program; terrorism optempo; al Qaeda nukes; Kosovo flares up again; terrorist apology; and Dr. Seuss.
IRAQ BRIEFING
- A rocket attack in western Iraq killed two American soldiers (link requires registration) and a rocket attack on the coalition headquarters killed two Iraqis and wounded another American in separate attacks this weekend. Whether due to more soldiers being on the ground in Iraq, higher operational tempo, more attacks by the enemy forces or for other reasons, American deaths are up significantly this month.
- While the U.S. still plans to turn over formal authority to an Iraqi government this summer, much authority for Iraq's governance will remain with the United States significantly longer. While this is probably a necessary requirement for the time being, expect it to be a point of contention both internationally and with the Iraqis until they gain true control of their country.
- Twenty years ago the Army had to depend on scouts on the ground for reconnaissance, putting lives at extreme risk in order to gather critical information. In Iraq, the UAV gave U.S. forces the ability to gather more information faster than ever before while almost eliminating the risk to soldiers.
Hat tip: Trent Telenko.
- Incoming Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero stood by his pledge to pull the 1,300 Spanish troops out of Iraq unless the United Nations is given control of the mission before June 30.
- The U.S. is investigating al Arabiya claims that American soldiers shot two of their journalists near Baghdad this weekend, but the initial investigation suggests the journalists were not killed by Americans.
- In response to the complaints that President Bush lied in order to justify the war in Iraq, writer MJ Sheppard suggests the President require his opponents to put up or shut up.
Hat tip: The Command Post.
- The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops: American, Australian, British, Canadian & Polish. Anyone out there with more information, contact us!
- Don't forget Chief Wiggles' Toys for Iraq drive!
IRAN REPORTS
- Just because they threaten to nuke you doesn't mean you shouldn't sell them other weapons. Or does it? Israel is asking that question about Iran right now.
- Maybe the IAEA isn't quite as stupid as they sometimes let on, as Mohammed ElBaradei says his investigators remain suspicious of Iran's intentions for its nuclear program. Imagine.
THE WIDER WAR
- Is terrorism ramping up of late? Debbye of Being American in T.O. takes a look at the events of the past few weeks and notes what appears to be a significant surge.
- Does al Qaeda already have nuclear weapons? Ayman al-Zawahiri told Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir that they do. It seems likely it was a bluff, but certainly a disturbing one.
- Intelligence chiefs from England, France, Spain, Italy and Germany will meet in Madrid today to discuss ways to better share intelligence to prevent future attacks on European soil. One is reminded of Heinlein's dictum: no department of defense ever won a war.
- Europe has other problems, of course, as the situation in Kosovo is deteriorating rapidly, an issue that will doubtless further distract Europe from the war on terror.
- Reminding us which side they're on, the Palestinian Authority unfroze the accounts of nine charities accused of funding terrorism. Given that Hamas welcomed the decision, it seems likely they were doing just that, and doubtless will do so again.
- Palestinian terrorist group Al Aqsa apologized for killing an Israeli on Friday when it learned the dead man was not a Jew. A valuable reminder of the mindset of the Palestinian terrorists.
- Never say the Saudis never did anything for us; a shootout in Saudi Arabia ended with al Qaeda leader "The Poet" dead. He won't be missed.
- Afghan Cabinet Member Mirwais Saddiq was assassinated in the city of Herat Sunday, possibly as a result on intertribal conflict. Saddiq was the son of Ismail Khan, a powerful governor and former militia commander who has clashed politically with the Afghan central government for some time.
- Moderate Islam won a landslide victory in Malaysia, defeating a more extreme Muslim party in Sunday's elections. The margin of victory meant the moderate party attracted not only the non-Muslims of Malaysia, but also a sizable fraction of the Islamic population, suggesting radical Islam may not have a strong base even among Muslims.
- We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Before he became one of the greatest authors of children's books in history, Theodore Geisel, aka Dr. Seuss, penned editorial cartoons in the months leading up to the Second World War. And it would appear many of them still apply today.
Thanks for reading! If you found something here you want to blog about yourself (and we hope you do), all we ask is that you do as we do and offer a Hat Tip hyperlink to today's "Winds of War". If you think we missed something important, use the Comments section to let us know.
Oh NO! Not the dreaded "cease-fire" followed by the infamous "negotiations".
Move along, nothing to see here folks. No big fish, no al Queda foreigners. Just tribesmen acting tribally, and we pardoned them on the spot.
Bad link to Debbye of Being American in T.O.
Yesssss!!! Bye bye Yassin you Baalite prick. Don't let the door to hell hit you on your way in....
Fixed the bad link.
Nice to see that Saruman is toes up. Hope it was painful, he deserves nothing less with all the innocent blood on his hands. Care to wager on the extent to which toilet paper consumption has gone up in Yasser's fuhrerbunker tonight, anyone?
Also, it appears the cease-fire (and this is the third one for those keeping score) has ended prematurely, at least until the elders try to get another one set up. Aren't hudnas fun?
The Reuters link about the ceasefire is bad too. Links to a story about Spain pulling out of Iraq.
What effect will this strike on the spirtual leader have on us? They're blaming US for this attack.
In the wake of Israel's belated elimination of the blood soaked Hamas terrorist Yassin, read this excellent article:
The Logic of Israel's Targeted Killing by Gal Luft
I hate to nitpick, but the summary of Yassin's assassination states that he was killed "with an airstrike on his car while he was en route to a mosque." Both the NY Times and CNN suggest that Yassin was killed while leaving a mosque, with the intent of going home.
Moderate Islam won a landslide victory in Malaysia, defeating a more extreme Muslim party in Sunday's elections. The margin of victory meant the moderate party attracted not only the non-Muslims of Malaysia, but also a sizable fraction of the Islamic population, suggesting radical Islam may not have a strong base even among Muslims.
During the Cold War some had visions of a united Warsaw Pact following the Soviet Union into battle. Those who understood the situation "on the ground" in Poland, Hungary, and (then) Czechoslovakia knew how far-fetched that was.
I wonder if the same thing isn't true of non-Arab Islam. Certainly, there are local grievances and local insurgents in various non-Arab Muslim countries. But I have always been skeptical of a united Islam following al Qaeda into battle.
How are non-Arab Muslims treated by Arab Muslims? I know the theory--what's the practice? Maybe there's an expert out there?
Prior to the Gamal Nasser and Arab Nationalism, the ruling elites of the Turkic, Arab, and Berber groups all intermarried for political reasons. This made their military aristocracies equally intermixed.
Arab Nationalism changed all that. First of all, the last thing the Arabs wanted is Turkish irredentism. Second, Nationalism is an ethnic thing, as Hitler famously pointed out. For true Nationalists, there is no win-win situation; if we win you lose.
This situation was writ large in the 1948 Indian independence chaos, from which Pakistan emerged. Pakistani Muslim Nationalism was established without regard to pan Islamic traditions, as that would have involved appealing to some notion of the Caliphate, which certainly wouldn't have flown with the leaving British or the non Muslim minorities in Pakistan. But the overall effect has been to segregate the Sunni Moslem world ethnically. This goes far beyond the schismatic Shi'a issue, which involved non Arab Persians as its prime supporters, who are loathed by the primarily Sunni Arabs.
David Warren has an interesting demographic commentary on the Spanish elections and Europe in general at his site.
Link fixed. As for Yassin, the initial report had him being struck en route to the mosque...the first report, as they say, is always wrong.
Yassin was like Osama in that despite Islamic sutras condemning the taking of innocent life by Muslims, especially without first attempting to convert to Islam, and against taking or risking the lives of Muslims without the latter's knowledge or consent, he killed or conspired to kill indiscriminantly both Jews, and Muslims who disagreed with his agenda! He deserved to die! Should Halsey and the Cactus Air Force during WW2 refrain from shooting down Admiral Yamamoto's transport because despite planning the Pearl Harbor attack he disliked the thought of war between America and fascist Japan? Should the Brits refrain from deceiving the Nazis about future war plans, and possibly save thousands or millions of British lives in the process, because their plan called for using the dead body of a British civilian to deliver fake plans into the hands of the Nazis via impersonation of a dead but nonexistent British officer! Post 9-11 and IRAQI FREEDOM far too many citizens criticize America for its methods without considering the reciprocal actions of America's enemies against America for their own interest, and that many of methods of America's enemies are far more violent, brutal, or inhumane than the methods America employed! IF ANTI-AMERICAN COMMIES ARE NOW THE ONLY GOOD GUYS AMERICANS CAN TRUST NOWADAYS, ESPEC WITH DEMOCRAT KERRY NOW BEING PORTRAYED AS BEING AS BAD, IF NOT WORSE, THAN REPUBLICAN BUSH, THEN WHY ALL THE CRITICISMS FROM AMERICANS AGAINST BUSH FOR ALLEGED, SURREAL "ABUSES" OF THE INTENT AND TEXT OF THE PATRIOT ACT, ESPEC CONSIDERING THAT DURING THE COLD WAR, PATRIOT ACT-STYLE ABUSES WERE THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG OF LIFE FOR ORDINARY CITIZENS LIVING UNDER COMMUNISM!
Yassin was like Osama in that despite Islamic sutras condemning the taking of innocent life by Muslims, especially without first attempting to convert to Islam, and against taking or risking the lives of Muslims without the latter's knowledge or consent, he killed or conspired to kill indiscriminantly both Jews, and Muslims who disagreed with his agenda! He deserved to die! Should Halsey and the Cactus Air Force during WW2 refrain from shooting down Admiral Yamamoto's transport because despite planning the Pearl Harbor attack he disliked the thought of war between America and fascist Japan? Should the Brits refrain from deceiving the Nazis about future war plans, and possibly save thousands or millions of British lives in the process, because their plan called for using the dead body of a British civilian to deliver fake plans into the hands of the Nazis via impersonation of a dead but nonexistent British officer! Post 9-11 and IRAQI FREEDOM far too many citizens criticize America for its methods without considering the reciprocal actions of America's enemies against America for their own interest, and that many of methods of America's enemies are far more violent, brutal, or inhumane than the methods America employed! IF ANTI-AMERICAN COMMIES ARE NOW THE ONLY GOOD GUYS AMERICANS CAN TRUST NOWADAYS, ESPEC WITH DEMOCRAT KERRY NOW BEING PORTRAYED AS BEING AS BAD, IF NOT WORSE, THAN REPUBLICAN BUSH, THEN WHY ALL THE CRITICISMS FROM AMERICANS AGAINST BUSH FOR ALLEGED, SURREAL "ABUSES" OF THE INTENT AND TEXT OF THE PATRIOT ACT, ESPEC CONSIDERING THAT DURING THE COLD WAR, PATRIOT ACT-STYLE ABUSES WERE THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG OF LIFE FOR ORDINARY CITIZENS LIVING UNDER COMMUNISM!
As for the possibility of AL-Qaeda now possessing "suitcase nukes", even if true that they do posses nuclear devices, unless a large number can be collected and emplaced in a singular location it is highly unlikely they'll be able to destroy any American city in one blast. The "best use" of such small devices for any dedicated terrorist group is for against POLITICAL OBJECTIVES, ie "hit-and-run" limited strikes, with protractive lead times, against specific, high-profile/value, government or industrial targets with uncontrolled or easy access - IOW, those dedicated missions typically assigned to OFFENSIVE small-unit SAPPER or COMMANDO forces, to include SUICIDE MISSIONS! NO, if Radical Islam wants to take out a city in one blast, their best option is to use either a MERCHANT SHIP or LARGE-SIZED AIRCRAFT, or both, whereby a good-sized but heavy nuclear device can be easily assembled, congregated, andor concealed, and later easily detonated! A terror cell or network by definition likely possesses only a limited or small number of devices, and once a device or devices are detonated the entity will likely be on the run to escape efforts at capture or destruction. "Suitcase nukes" or mininukes may fit in well with a Kerry anti-American agenda - while I myself heard Kerry state on televised media that he wants America to be able to absorb and survive any major terrorist attack on its soil, POTUS wannabe Kerry curiously did NOT mention or indicate if he would be in favor of [overseas] American military action as a dedicated national or policy response to any terror event! IF AL-QAEDA INTENDS TO USE MINI-NUKES IN ANY FUTURE STRIKE AGAINST THE USA, ONE CAN ARGUE THAT WHERE AL-QAEDA STRIKES, SO ALSO MIGHT THE AIRBORNE FORCES/BATTLEGROUPS OF RUSSIA AND CHINA - recall the post 1989 Yeltsin, now Putin, Doctrine, which is now also formally accepted by CHINA, that Russia/China reserve the unilateral right to use any option, including de facto military force, to protect its interests, and the lives of its citizens and EMIGRES, anywhere in the world, as interpreted-decided by Russia/China alone!