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Trent Telenko Archives

August 29, 2008

A Post Baby Boom Presidential Ticket?

By Trent Telenko at 19:49

While the Right blogosphere is hailing and the Left blogosphere is snarking at Senator McCain's pick of Alaska Gov. Palin (See the round up at Instapundit), every observer I have seen so far has missed a real point.

The Republicans have no Baby Boomers on their Presidential ticket.

This also remarkable because neither major American political party picked Presidential front runners who are Baby Boom Southern White Males after 15 years of such men being President.


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  • Steve: As a boomer (b. 1953), I'm happy with a Traditionalist read more
  • Joshua: If she's 44, she was born in 1964 or 63. read more
  • molon labe: Palin has publicly mentioned putting down her Blackberries (plural) and read more
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May 18, 2007

The Immigration Amnesty for Terrorists Act

By Trent Telenko at 17:45

The title of this post is intentionally provocative for a reason. It is a "Cultural Cruise Missile" intended to fly below the radar screens of the media and political elite at the speed of the blogosphere to frame the debate on this bill.

The title is also an accurate description of the effect of the bill. The new so-called "Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act" that is leaving the Senate is just a tarted up Immigration Amnesty bill. If the Bill’s provisions, as currently written, were implemented, the three Duka brothers of the "Fort Dix Six" would have been granted immigration amnesty had they not been arrested for terrorism first.

Resorting to "Cultural Cruise Missile" tactics are necessary as the moneyed interests in Washington are now colluding to put one over on the American public for their narrow interest$ over the General welfare and Security of the American people in their homes and businesses. These developments are being covered by Michelle Malkin, Hugh Hewitt and Mickey Kaus. So I won't comment farther other than noting that,
1) There is no major political voting block in favor of Amnesty.
2) There is a huge one against it,
3) This voting block does not have money in party primaries while the public employee unions and the corporate open border caucus do. and
4) While this voting block may not be able to affect primary vote via well funded challengers. It will be there for the general election, and the most motivated portions of this block are Republicans wanting to punish "traitors"

A wipe out of sitting Republican senators may be in the offing in 2008.


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  • Jeff: How about "NOMAS!" -- No More Amnesty, Stupid! read more
  • PD Shaw: I agree with Mark B in agreeing partially with TOC. read more
  • Mark Buehner: I agree with every point except number 1. A wall read more

October 10, 2006

The Nuclear Proliferation Nightmare -- A Retrospective

By Trent Telenko at 03:21

Now that the "Kim Regime" of North Korea has birthed the Nightmare of Rapid Nuclear Proliferation with it's Sunday nuclear test. I think a retrospective listing of "worst case posts" made here on Winds of Change on the subject of North Korean/Iranian nuclear proliferation is in order.

Starting with my 5-year anniversary September 11th prediction that North Korea was about to test a nuclear weapon:

NORTH KOREA'S COMING NUCLEAR TEST
by Trent Telenko at September 11, 2006 5:30 AM

This is my Sept. 11th prediction of the October 8th North Korean nuclear test. I make the points that
1) The Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs are not separate national programs, but are really a single, joint, international arms program;
2) That it can only be stopped via regime change in Iran,
3) That the logical assessment of the Libyan nuclear program meant If Libya could have nuclear weapons next year, Iran can have them now.
And finally,
4) That not stopping the Iranian nuclear program will lead to "A world of 20-30+ unstable nuclear-armed 3rd world tyrannies is less than a 15 years away, maybe as little as seven, if Iran succeeds in its goal of becoming a nuclear power."

IRAN'S NUCLEAR WARHEAD
by Trent Telenko at May 24, 2006 1:55 PM

Here I point out a Straegypage.com report that Iran is getting Russian and Chinese missile warhead design help.

COUNT DOWN TO IRAN’S NUCLEAR TEST REVISITED
by Trent Telenko at April 10, 2006 4:10 AM

I make the case that the US Government has chosen to mirror image the Iranian nuclear program rather than truly assess where Iran’s policy objective will lead its nuclear weapons development program. And that the result is that Iran has several gun-type fission warheads for its Scud missiles that the American intelligence and national security establishments deny the existence of.

Continued


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  • Trent Telenko: SAO, This particular article is quoted numerous times in the read more
  • Trent Telenko: SAO "There are none so deaf as those who do read more
  • SAO: I did not find the links in any of these read more

September 11, 2006

North Korea's Coming Nuclear Test

By Trent Telenko at 05:30

These opening lines from this UK TELEGRAPH article speak for themselves:

Russian diplomats believe it is now "highly probable" that North Korea will officially join the nuclear club by carrying out its first underground test of an atomic device.
Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, is said to have made clear his intention to explode a device during recent talks with Russian and Chinese officials in Pyongyang
.

Given the the joint international nature of North Korea's nuclear program, Iran will have an arsenal of tested nuclear missile warheads for its ballistic missile arsenal of Chinese design and North Korean construction in 30-90 days after that test.


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  • Henry Bowman: AMac #13: I agree, there are many advances that make read more
  • Fred: Warren, I'd like to see that myself, but I don't read more
  • Warren: We need a longer term solution. Iran makes billions out read more

August 22, 2006

The Israeli Defense Force -- A Hollow Military?

By Trent Telenko at 18:19

Real Clear Politics carried a Aug. 19, 2006 Jerusalem Post op-ed by Lenny Ben-Davis that has me thinking that today's Israeli Defense Force (IDF) may be a "Hollow Military" just like America's was in the late 1970's. The implications of that for the War on Terrorism and the continued existence of the state of Israel are profound.

I come to this conclusion via three routes. My day job is as a Defense Department Quality Specialist. Patterns of Defense corruption are part of my professional training. I have also been a serious military wargamer for more than 25 years. Last, being a military history buff, I have James Dunnigan's How to Make War and Dirty Little Secrets books, Shooting Blanks: War Making That Doesn't Work, and most importantly Getting It Right: American Military Reforms After Vietnam and into the 21st Century, as references for the symptoms of "Hollow" militaries.

You would expect to see the following things in a "Hollow" draft-based military.

1) Shortages of reservist training and reservist stocks and equipment. Check "yes" for the IDF.

2) Poor leadership not only at the senior leadership, but all the way down to the battlefield level. Poor leadership that has political cronyism at its heart. The Hezbollah missile strike on the INS Al-Hanit, Ben-David's piece plus multiple posts over on "Yonitheblogger.com" makes that another check "yes" for the IDF.

3) Draft dodging by the political elites and their children. Again, this is another check mark "yes" for the IDF.

Israel could clearly still beat Syria in a stand up conventional military fight as the latters armed forces have deteriorated faster for the same reasons than Israels, but the majority of IDF reservists - who make up between 70 and 80% of the IDF's ground forces - seem to have lost much of their combat effectiveness edge over Arab opponents


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  • Tom Holsinger: We should pay more attention to Trent when his professional read more
  • anonymous: iirc, Israel faced a similar "crisis" of miltary erosion back read more
  • rosignol: I wonder if you would agree with a different possible read more

August 5, 2006

Good, Evil and a Switching of Sides

By Trent Telenko at 17:29

Michael Barone's blog is always worth reading, but today I found an outstanding post on an LA TIMES opinion poll that put into words what I have been thinking about Israel and American politics. Point blank -- Republicans more pro-Israel than Democrats -- and the reason why is religon and what religion teaches people about good and evil.

These are the sections of Barone's that stand out like glowing neon for me:


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  • Jeff Brewster: I don't see a moral problem (question/issue/debate would be a read more
  • Mark Buehner: "The Israel-Palestine situation is the greatest moral problem of our read more
  • Jeff Brewster: Barone states that approval of Israel correlates with strong moral/religious read more

June 28, 2006

MAKE THE NEW YORK TIMES PAY FOR THE NEXT 9/11

By Trent Telenko at 12:44

Civil Liability for Leaking Classified Information

Guest Article By Thomas Holsinger

Congress can deter news organizations, and others, from publishing classified documents by making them strictly liable for civil tort damages caused by foreign terrorists, i.e., the New York Times should pay for the next 9/11 because its repeated publications of classified information have aided terrorists and put all Americans at risk. This would put the Times out of business, and that is a good thing. Such legislation would pass Constitutional scrutiny because civil liability would not be subject to the strict protections applicable to criminal liability.

Here are my quick and dirty thoughts on how such a statute could be written it is likely that Ive overlooked important issues. The purpose of this article is to generate discussion rather than serve as a thorough analysis of the legal and political issues involved.


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  • J Thomas: the issue in Padilla is a simple one: does read more
  • Halcyon: This entire thread is high-larious. I have to ask Mr. read more
  • J Thomas: And why, pray tell, would it be scandalous for European read more

May 24, 2006

Iran's Nuclear Warhead

By Trent Telenko at 13:55

Little Green Footballs reported here on this Jerusalem Post article on the test firing of Iran's Shihab-3 long range ballistic missile. The Shahab-3 is a derivative of the North Korean Nodong and Pakistani Ghauri-1

What both LGF and the JP missed was this report by Strategypage.com:

May 23, 2006: There was another test of the Shahab 3 ballistic missile. This version of the missile, with a range of 2,000 kilometers can reach Southern Europe, as well as Israel. Testing now is mainly for the guidance system. Chinese and Russian technology is believed to have been obtained to build a workable nuclear warhead.

This points out something I have said a number of times here on Winds of Change. Iran's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program is not a national program it is INTERNATIONAL in scope.

No amount of bombing of Iran's national WMD infrastructure will stop the Mullah Regime from obtaining nukes, bugs and gas -- plus the missiles for delivering them -- as long as the Mullahs are in charge of Iran's oil wealth and can buy WMDs off the shelf from North Korea, China and Russia.

Regime change is the only option that will stop them. Given the advanced state of Iran's WMD program, time has run out for anything other than an American ground invasion and occupation campaign.


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  • Ian Campbell: Regime change is not, by far, the only answer to read more
  • J Thomas: China and india are both dependent on mniddle east oil read more
  • Mark Buehner: "They'll of course move in some of their own nukes read more

April 13, 2006

Iran's Nuclear Break Out Has Begun

By Trent Telenko at 12:45

According to an article in Bloomberg, an American State Department official is being quoted as saying the following in response to Iranian deputy nuclear chief Mohammad Saeedi's televised claim that Iran was about to move to ``industrial scale'' uranium enrichment involving 54,000 centrifuges at its Natanz plant:

``Using those 50,000 centrifuges they could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 16 days,'' Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, told reporters today in Moscow.

and

``It was a deeply disappointing announcement,'' Rademaker said of Ahmadinejad's statement.

Weapons-Grade Uranium

Rademaker said the technology to enrich uranium to a low level could also be used to make weapons-grade uranium, saying that it would take a little over 13 years to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon with the 164 centrifuges currently in use. The process involves placing uranium hexafluoride gas in a series of rotating drums or cylinders known as centrifuges that run at high speeds to extract weapons grade uranium.

Iran has informed the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency that it plans to construct 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz next year, Rademaker said.

``We calculate that a 3,000-machine cascade could produce enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon within 271 days,'' he said.

The time for diplomacy with Iran has come to an end. Mohammad Saeedi's announcement was a public declaration that Iran's nuclear break out has begun.

Welcome to the nuclear express elevator to hell, going down.


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  • qbe9584: And for the last post on this thread, let's go read more
  • Blair: Gents, are you busy over there in the UK? read more
  • Mark Buehner: Like I said, im listening. But the fact they started read more

April 10, 2006

Count Down to Irans Nuclear Test Revisited

By Trent Telenko at 04:10

The U.S. government is missing the real issues in deciding what military action to take concerning Irans nuclear weapons program - how the Iranians are making nukes and what kind of nukes are they are attempting to build that counts. There are huge political/military implications to those choices. If Americas military and intelligence agencies have guessed wrong, the first we will know of it is when a nuclear tipped Iranian Scud or improved Scud missile detonates where it does America the most damage.

The governments assumption that an American bombing campaign, no matter how successful, will slow down Irans nuclear program enough to buy time for a nonsensical regime change by revolution concept (no one outside the desperate-to-believe in fairy-tales idiots in D.C. believes the U.S. intelligence community can foment a successful revolution in Iran) would be laughable if so many lives were not at stake. Irans nuclear program is not a NATIONAL PROGRAM. It is an INTERNATIONAL ONE. As long as North Korea serves as an invulnerable sanctuary supplying ballistic missiles and nuclear fissile material to Iran in exchange for oil, Iran will get nukes. Looked at one way, nuclear proliferation may be seen as a phenomenon of globalization. Looked at in another, it may well be that nuclear proliferation is a game of covert nuclear warfare against the worlds sole superpower. No matter which is true, only forcible regime change will prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and setting off a chain reaction of proliferation that will add a least a dozen unstable, nuclear-armed, 3rd world states in a decade. Those will use their nukes on each, themselves and hand some off to terrorists, intentionally or otherwise, for use on us.

The kinds of nukes Iran is pursuing, given the self-evident need to remove the Mullah regime, is the most pressing and least thought through question of the proliferation debate. It is one colored by mirror-imaging conventional wisdom amounting to religious faith on the part of our nuclear weapons and intelligence communities.


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  • Mark Buehner: I think I may be on to something here! Iranian read more
  • Mark Buehner: "You assume that the U.S. can credibly deter NK from read more
  • Tom Holsinger: Mark, That we have data some or all of the read more

March 21, 2006

The Media's Latest Lie A "Civil War" in Iraq

By Trent Telenko at 12:51

It is a wonder that the Blogosphere hasnt picked up on the latest media Frame on the war in Iraq that Iraq is in purportedly in the middle of a civil war - and taken it apart like the propaganda it is.

What is going on in Iraq today is a losing terrorist campaign hyped by media spin as a civil war because the public no longer believes their prior frame that we were losing to the terrorists . This is easily proven with a simple comparison with Bosnia Herzegovinas real civil war in the early-to-mid 1990s. Today there are 26 million Iraqis, according to the CIAs Fact Book. There are four million Bosnians of whom about half (two million) are Muslim.

Bosnia Herzegovinas Muslim population lost 200,000 dead in four years from 1992-1995s civil war with the Serbs. That averages about 50,000 dead a year of two million Muslims, about one killed per forty people per year.

If the civil strife in post-liberation Iraq matched that of real civil war in Bosnia ten years ago, there would be 650,000 Iraqi fatalities per year say 1800 dead Iraqis a day from sectarian strife to match the average death rate of Bosnia Herzegovinas civil war.


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  • Bob: TOO FREAKIN BIG read more
  • alchemist: WEll, I didn't expect that answer, but at least it's read more
  • Tom Holsinger: alchemist, you asked: "I'm asking if this latest bout of read more

March 17, 2006

Desperate Housewives Meets Delta Force

By Trent Telenko at 18:06

Strap on your seat belts and put down your coffee! The makers of Desperate Housewives at CBS have discovered the military’s Delta Force and sees plot potential! Retired Command Sgt. Maj. Eric Haney book "Inside Delta Force is being made into a TV series titled “THE UNIT.” It has attracted the support of “Desperate Housewives” sponsor CBS chief executive Les Moonves.

This is what CNN says about it:


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  • Kierkegaard: Here's a link to my quickie review of 'The Unit" read more
  • Canucklehead: I agree with Gordon. I saw the first two episodes read more
  • S Duerr: Isn't Desperate Houswives on ABC? read more
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