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Oxford Democracy Forum Archives

OxDem Democracy Briefing: 2004-05-20

Winds of Change.NET’s weekly democracy briefings present a survey each week of the most important trends and events in democratization around the globe. Today's weekly Democracy Briefing is brought to you by Patrick Belton, co-editor of OxBlog and president of the Nathan Hale Foreign Policy Society.

TOP TOPICS

  • Local Palestinian elections announced: on May 10, the PA cabinet announced it would begin a year-long process of local elections this summer, with Jericho holding elections first in August. Local elections have not been held in thirty years in the West Bank, and forty in the case of Gaza. In a policy shift, the cabinet announced an Israeli withdrawal is not a prerequisite for local elections, though it would continue to be for legislative and presidential elections. Analysts attributed the new flexibility to PM Qurei's desire to shore up the Palestinian leadership’s international standing in advance of meeting with Condi Rice in Berlin next week, and Arafat yielding to internal pressure to address the chaos and corruption currently plaguing many Palestinian towns.
  • Greater Middle East Initiative: following criticism from Arab governments and prior to the June meeting of the G-8 in Sea Island, Georgia, the United States is revising its proposals to assist Middle Eastern democracy. Current proposals center around a literacy corps, a microfinance fund, a ‘foundation for democracy’ to fund civil society programmes, and a democracy assistance group to coordinate G-8 and EU reform efforts. Critics say the programme has been gutted after meeting with Arab criticism; Senators Hagel, Lieberman, and Lugar have introduced separate legislative proposals to create a public-private Trust for Democracy funded with $1 billion a year for five years. Arab League foreign ministers have drafted a counterproposal, which will be taken up at a summit this week in Tunis.

Other Topics Today Include: Diplomats boycott Burmese ‘democracy’ conference; Kuwait announces it will allow women to vote; Malawi to elect a new president and parliament on Thursday; US warns Ukraine to hold fair elections later this year; UK and South Africa discuss promoting democracy in Zimbabwe; and Surprise developments in India - the world’s largest democracy.


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  • Dasper: Nathan, I just have to know if Nathan Hamm is read more
  • Patrick Belton: Incidentally, Nathan over at the Argus points out that Ambassador read more

Democracy in Pakistan: The Way Forward (3/3)

Our Friday democracy briefings examine current events in democratization around the globe, and link to lengthier analyses of democratization trends in countries of particular interest. This Special Report examines democratic prospects in Pakistan, and is by Patrick Belton, a researcher at Oxford and president of a foreign policy society and think tank, who writes daily at OxBlog.

Our third and final segment looks at the efforts being made to strengthen and track democracy and liberty in Pakistan, examines past security ties between the USA and Pakistan, and concludes with an assessment of U.S. policy implications and options. Pakistan's possession of nuclear materials, its role in the proliferation of same, and its ongoing disputes with India certainly make the development of a stable, democratic, and free Pakistan a project worthy of America's - and the world's - close attention.

Part 1: Players & News
* Pakistan: Political Structure
* The Islamist MMA
* Recent Parliamentary Elections and Constitutional Changes

Part 2: A Legacy of Democratic Failure
* Liberal Freedoms: A Mixed Record
* Historical Background of Democracy in Pakistan
* Why Has Democracy Always Failed in Pakistan?

Part 3: The Way Forward
* Freedom Ratings
* International Efforts at Fostering Democracy
* History of U.S.-Pakistan Security Ties
* Scenarios and Options for U.S. Policy


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  • Crystal: Lilli there is no such thing as "An Islamic state read more
  • Crystal: Lilli there is no such thing as "An Islamic state read more
  • Saad: Democracy is a total failure in Pakistan. http://blogs.weyak.ae/saadkhan?post=92678 read more

May 6, 2004

Democracy in Pakistan: A Legacy of Democratic Failure (2/3)

Our Friday democracy briefings examine current events in democratization around the globe, and link to lengthier analyses of democratization trends in countries of particular interest. This Special Report examines democratic prospects in Pakistan, and is by Patrick Belton, a researcher at Oxford and president of a foreign policy society and think tank, who writes daily at OxBlog.

This second segment looks at the history and current status of democracy and liberty in Pakistan. While all democracies are imperfect and democratic failure is not unknown (q.v. Europe's history over the last century), Pakistan's history has certainly been shaky at best. After going over the present state of liberty in Pakistan and giving you some historical background, this article looks at 4 reasons why democracy and liberty may have had such a rocky ride, courtesy of a Pakistani NGO named Pildat.

Part 1
* Pakistan: Political Structure
* The Islamist MMA
* Recent Parliamentary Elections and Constitutional Changes

Part 2
* Liberal Freedoms: A Mixed Record
* Historical Background of Democracy in Pakistan
* Why Has Democracy Always Failed in Pakistan?


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  • Zeenia: hi frnds...i am doing Masters in International Relations. can i read more
  • Lili: "I don't have any suggestions. It's quite a conundrum. Still, read more
  • Ahmad: I don't think there is anything essentially prohibitive about the read more

Democracy in Pakistan: Players & News (1/3)

Our Friday democracy briefings examine current events in democratization around the globe, and link to lengthier analyses of democratization trends in countries of particular interest. This Special Report examines democratic prospects in Pakistan, and is by Patrick Belton, a researcher at Oxford and president of a foreign policy society and think tank, who writes daily at OxBlog.

This first segment looks at the various factions in Pakistan, and brings you up to speed on the country's recent political history internally. The Art of Peace has a sobering article about Musharraf stepping down as Army Chief at the end of the year, and what this might mean. There are even rumblings of civil war -which may not come to pass, but it's worthwhile to understand the players here just in case.


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  • huma: hi read more
  • Deneris Fann: As a Pakistani, I am at the same time interested read more
  • Adam: It's sad when Pakistan's legislature is in crisis, and yet read more

April 16, 2004

OxDem Report: South African Elections

With turnout anticipated as high, President Thabo Mbeki’s ANC is expected to win its 3rd major electoral victory since the end of racially restricted voting in 1994. Though parties continue to be polarised by race and the country continues to struggle with high unemployment, this week’s elections reflect the striking consolidation of democracy that has taken place in South Africa since the fall of apartheid.

Interesting contested provinces in this year’s election include KwaZulu-Natal, which the ANC is hoping to wrest from the Zulu nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party, and the Western Cape, where the Democratic Alliance has been polling strongly.

While political violence has subsided greatly since 1994, violence still marked past elections: three people were killed in KwaZulu-Natal during the last elections, and parts of the province remain tense in this election cycle...


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  • Thomas J. Jackson: With the ANC winning over 66% of the vote look read more

OxDem Report: Algeria Holds Elections

Algeria has just held what have been widely appraised as free and fair elections, following a decade-long civil war between military and Islamist factions which left as many as 150,000 dead.

Algeria’s political development reflects a frequent pattern in the region.


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  • Sapper: Abdel, I think you misread Algeria completely. It really has read more
  • Abdel: Super ! Now it seem that countries that fight democracy read more
  • Sapper: I'm stationed in Algeria right now- a few comments: 1) read more

March 12, 2004

OxDem Global Democracy Brief: 2004-03-12

In this installment of OxDem's Global Democracy Briefings - the latest addition to the Winds of Change.NET regional briefings series - Patrick Belton of OxBlog and OxDem reviews the Greater Middle East Initiative, the drafting and approval of an interim Iraqi constitution, democracy protest in Syria, and the weekend's Russian elections. Patrick is a researcher at Oxford and also serves as president of a nationwide foreign policy society.

TOP TOPIC

  • The administration is backing down on its Greater Middle East Initiative, after a massive diplomatic effort led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt to portray the initiative as neocolonial meddling by the United States in the internal affairs of sovereign Arab states. The process collapsed in the aftermath of the leak of a draft of the proposal two weeks ago to the London-based Arabic newspaper Al Hayat, which precipitated the Saudi and Egyptian diplomatic campaign to oppose it. Drafted by the administration with minimal involvement from the State Department, the Initiative was to draw on the models of the Helsinki Accords and the Marshall Plan to create and fund institutions to promote democracy in the region and hasten reforms in governance, education, the economy, technology, development and the role of women.

Other topics today include: More on the Greater Middle East initiative; Greater budgetary support for National Endowment for Democracy; Russia's coming elections; Developments in the Palestinian Authority.
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  • Tom Roberts: The review of the Mideast Initiative is interesting as its read more
  • praktike: Oops, I blew it on the trackback, I think. Here's read more
  • TBox: Why is everyone so happy with Iraq's "Independent Judiciary"??? I read more

March 5, 2004

Iranian Elections: Post-Mortem

OxDem's global Democracy Briefings are the latest addition to the Winds of Change.NET regional briefings series. This inaugural briefing by Patrick Belton of OxBlog and OxDem reviews developments in Iran after the February 20th 'elections'. Patrick also serves as president of the Nathan Hale foreign policy society and think tank for young professionals, which has a website at www.foreignpolicysociety.org.

TOP TOPICS

  • Analysts report that Ayatollah Khamenei has emerged from his nation's elections with more power but less authority. That the basis on which Khamenei's power rests is growing narrower, even as last week's elections removed the parliament and presidency as sources of opposition, is indicated by the disqualification of the candidacy of firebrand Behzad Nabavi, along with those of several heroes of the Iran-Iraq war - all of whom are now all considered beyond the pale of the Ayatollah's narrowed constituency. Notably, even Hizbullah founding member Ali Akbar Mohtashami refused to stand for election, declaring the electoral process undemocratic and corrupt.
  • In protest to the disqualification of the 2,400 reformist candidates, abstention from voting was widespread. Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi abstained from voting in protest. Columnist Michael Ledeen reports an average turnout of twelve percent, with Tehran's slightly lower, and Isfahan's and Qom's (the latter the headquarters of the Shi'a religious establishment) closer to five percent. Writes Ledeen, "The only major city with a substantially higher turnout was Kerman, due to a local factor: A widely hated hardliner was running, and many people judged it more important to demonstrate their contempt for him personally by voting for others."
  • After the election results, democracy advocates are considering mounting a massive campaign of passive civil disobedience. Many argue that Khatami's gradualist reform agenda had failed to produce change, and they would not have supported him in elections even without the Guardian Council's disqualification of reformist candidates.
  • Speculation after the elections has rested on who Khameini will appoint to succeed President Khatami as president when his term ends later this year. The more pragmatic of the conservative factions are putting forward National Security Council secretary Hassan Rohani, while the more hardline faction is favoring Ali Larijani, the head of Iranian media and a leading figure in the suppression of reformist views in the media, known principally for his aired "confessions" of political prisoners and broadcasts into Iraq encouraging opposition to the American presence.
  • During the two nights of Ashoura, pro-democracy protesters held demonstrations to use the religious holiday to criticize the lack of democracy in the Iranian government, according to the Iranian students. Prominent young film director Ardeshir Afshinzadeh died from wounds inflicted during torture following his participation in the Ashoura protests.
Other topics today include: How bad was it?; the U.S. response; Iran and the U.S. presidential election; crackdown on Iranian bloggers; responses of Iranian students and other democratic advocates, and their plans for a way forward.
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  • Lyndon Ferrell: Looking forward to news on elections in Saudi. And Supreme read more
  • FH: I wouldn't be surprised if SOFs were there already. If read more
  • M. Simon: FH, My guess is that it is already under way. read more
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