Russia has a problem. Moscow’s recognition of Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia a few weeks ago has already encouraged some of its own disgruntled minorities to push harder for independence from the Russian Federation. Russia’s semi-autonomous republics of Ingushetia and Tatarstan have both ratcheted up their demands to secede.
Radical Islamists in Ingushetia, just across the Caucasus mountains from Georgia, have waged a low-level insurgency against the Russian government for some time now, though it has yet to reach the level of violent anti-Russian ferocity waged earlier by their cousins in neighboring Chechnya. A new group calling itself the People’s Parliament of Ingushetia has just surfaced after Russia’s adventure in Georgia with the stated aim of secession. More moderate opposition leaders also recently joined the cause of the radicals. Rebellious Ingush are not only emboldened by Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, they’re enraged by the assassination a few weeks ago of prominent anti-Kremlin journalist Magomed Yebloyev.
Meanwhile, the All-Tatar Civic Center in Tatarstan, an umbrella organization of various nationalist groups, announced that they likewise want out. They also cite the Abkhazia and South Ossetia precedents. “Russia has lost the moral right not to recognize us,” said Rashit Akhmetov, editor of the Zvezda Povolzhya newspaper in Tatarstan’s capital.
Cue music, send in the tanks. Plus SU-24/25 strikes and some Spetsnaz/Alpha teams. Worked in Checnya, will work here. Next...
Enough of these will start exposing the inherent fragility of the Russian state, and keep it busy enough that swallowing others will be seen as unattractive. IF they all happen at a similar time, or continue to smolder long enough to become a multiple-fronts problem.
Otherwise, these people will just provide target practice and live-fire training for Russia's military.
Which isn't really preventable, but may concentrate some minds in states near Russia Re: defense issues and spending.
Were I the President, I'd be seriously considering establishing a brigade in Poland and a fighter squadron in the Ukraine. (I'd wait on Georgia; we want to prevent wars, not start them.)
It is true that, with a population forty percent ethnic Russian, Tatarstan is unlikely to secede or be allowed to do so. But for Russia, non-secession could also be problematical if a sense of Muslim identity sharpens. Tatars have been the most assimilated and moderate of all the Muslim peoples in the Russian Federation.
For what its worth, Georgia has produced some intercepted phone calls they claim prove Russian armor was entering Georgia 20 hours before the shooting started (Georgian shooting anyway).
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