Benazir Bhutto's Book: Reconciliation Reviewed

Ali "Drizzt" Eteraz review Benazir Bhutto's new book "Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West." It's a worthwhile review, and as you'd expect he makes a number of good points. The core of her argument is definitely addressed to a Western audience, and remains the contention that democracy remains the best hope for progress within the Islamic world.

Mr. Eteraz is canny enough to note some of the flaws in her argument, too - such as her family's own complicity in the Islamization of Pakistan. He also criticizes Ms. Bhutto on the grounds that she "spends too much time trying to mollify those who conceive of Muslims as nihilist monsters... Muslims, like all believers, live a pick-and-choose-life and it’s pretty apparent that today most Muslims want to buy cars, raise families and hold jobs."

There, I think, he's on weaker ground. Yes, religious people pick and choose. Yes, a lot of people want a good material life. No, that doesn't remove the historic or current problems in Islam. It's more than than just some texts recommending violence, it's a long, consistent, and very blood-soaked history derived from those texts, which includes the prime role in the global slave trade (a stain that is still ingoing in Sudan et. al.). The role of jihad in Islam is not so easily dismissed, and it may be that Ms. Bhutto was wiser than Mr. Eteraz in deciding to face, rather than dismiss, a question that is growing rather than fading in the minds of her potential audience.

In the end, the Islamic world, too, will have to face, own, and reconsider their own history - as other religions have done, and continue to do.

Smartest Idea This Decade

• India has one operational aircraft carrier, the Viraat. It's hard to keep in service because it's so old, and will have to be withdrawn around 2010-2012.

• India was supposed to be getting a bigger replacement, the former Russian carrier Admiral Gorshkov, heavily modified from a cruiser-carrier into a full carrier. The Gorshkov refit was supposed to be $700-800 million, and be done in 2008. Russia is now quoting $1.4 billion, with delivery around 2012-2013.

• Recall the timeline on the Viraat's retirement.

• Notice that the same Russian shipyard just lost a $500 million contract for 12 civilian ships, with the Norwegians calling their work utterly unacceptable and noting extortion-like tactics to seek price increases. The word "sabotage" is also used by the Norwegian CEO. But Russia has India's future carrier near Archangel, monies have already been paid, and where else can they get a replacement by 2013, let alone 2010?

• India has sent out RFPs for a $10+ billion fighter competition. US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornets and land-based F-16 E/F Desert Falcons are up against Europe's Eurofighter, France's land/naval Rafale, Sweden's excellent JAS-39 Gripen lightweight fighter, and Russia's thrust-vectoring MiG-29OVT/-35.

• The USA and India signed a 10-year strategic agreement during George W. Bush's presidency, and diplomacy to India has been something this administration has emphasized, in part thanks to the efforts of a great US ambassador/poet.

• The USA's last non-nuclear carrier, the USS Kitty Hawk [CV 63], is scheduled to return from its base in Japan this year for decommissioning. It's 81,000 tons, smaller than a 96,000 ton Nimitz Class CVN, but larger than any other nation's carriers.

Ladies and gentlemen, are you pondering what George W. Bush is pondering....?

What Next in Afghanistan/ Pakistan

India's Strategic Intelligence Estimates.com:

"Our intelligence analysts have observed several trends and occurrences that indicate the United States and its NATO allies may be preparing to take significant action against the Pakistan-based al Qaeda Central (AQC) and Taliban in 2008 and beyond. In the following estimate, we have outlined these trends and occurrences, along with the US and NATO's likely courses of action."

I suppose anything is possible, but somehow I don't see the "alliance" that couldn't muster 20 helicopters for Afghanistan taking on Pakistan in any way that matters. As for the CIA, denial has described their stance on Pakistan for years now. I guess we can all hope for a conversion on the road to Islamabad, but I wouldn't bet on it. If they could offer the transparently stupid rationalizations they've been serving up to date with a straight face, I can't believe something as petty as events would alter anything.

Given the CIA's record when they do get involved, I'm not sure I want to be wrong on that prediction. StrategyPage probably has it right re: Afghanistan. Though there may also be something to this point re: supply lines and NATO.

The Bhutto Assassination: Pinky & the Brain in Pakistan?

Well, it looks like Pakistan's Taliban insurgency has claimed another target in that country's ongoing civil war. Bhutto was shot by an attacker after a campaign rally; the attacker then blew himself up, killing at least 20 others. The attack was well timed: her own party will find it difficult to replace her before the January 8/08 elections, and of course Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League-N held up their end of the operation by "suddenly" deciding that they'd boycott the election, while calling for Musharraf's ouster. Hmm, wonder who might rise to power in that kind of vacuum...

Ah, the Waziristan Accords - another successful example of diplomacy with terrorists as a gift that keeps on giving.

Still, I've told Dan Darling before that al-Qaeda and its allies have a bit of a "Pinky and the Brain" problem - good at thinking 2 moves ahead and decent at executing that, but not so great at anticipating what happens once they pull off their scheme...

read the rest! »

Cost Pressures Force European Aerospace to Look Outside Europe

EADS Airbus' politically controversial "Power 8" restructuring plan is already planning to shift future production out of Europe, and a recent EADS announcement intensified that pressure with more downward pressure on earnings. Worse, Airbus' customers insist on pricing their contracts in dollars, while its costs are mostly denominated in Euros. EADS CEO has complained that every time the US dollar falls by 10 cents, Airbus loses $1 billion dollars - even as the Euro has risen from $1.20 to almost $1.50 over the last few years. Some analysts think this is a dodge (financial hedging strategies exist), but CEO Louis Gallois has apparently decided that if you can't beat 'em, you had better join 'em. Deutsche Welle:

"We don't have a choice," Louis Gallois, chief executive of EADS, told Europe 1 radio Monday. Gallois said the only way to "prepare the company for a dollar that no one can control is -- unfortunately -- to set up shop in a dollar zone."

The French government is reportedly less than happy about this, and has fired a shot across EADS' bow in return...

read the rest! »

Kalashnikovs are getting dearer

Kalashnikovs are getting dearer

Photo: Valerio Pandolfo

Darra Adam Khel, a small town in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, 'consists of one main street lined with shops, with some alleys and sidestreets containing workshops'. Almost all the shops and the workshops are involved in the business of small, and not-so-small, arms. Officially, you need a permit to get there. Officially, you will not be issued with one.

Well, the news from Darra is that Kalashnikov prices are going up.

read the rest! »

India & Russia to Create "Fifth Generation Fighter"

Russia's SU-27/30 Flanker family fighters were developed in the 1980s and 1990s, and attempted to incorporate the lessons from America's "teen series" fighters (F-14, F-15, F-16, F/A-18) into their designs. They were successful. Early Su-27/30 versions offer performance comparable to the F-15 Eagle, superior in some ways but a bit under in others. They have become popular export items, and subsequent versions like the Su-30MKI/M and the new Su-34 Fullback long-range strike version are clearly better; the Indra Dhanush exercise with British Eurofighter Typhoons may have cemented the Su-30MKI/M's status as the world's 2nd best air superiority fighter, behind the F-22A Raptor. All for about half the cost of either a new F-22A ($137 million flyaway) or Eurofighter Typhoon (about $120 million flyaway), and rather less than a new F-15 Strike Eagle ($90-110 million). But the F-22 Raptor's level of stealth and ability to cruise above Mach 1 ("supercruise") put it far ahead of its rivals, and Russia has always wanted to keep up with the Joneses.

Hence the MiG 1.44 (if indeed it was a real project?) or "I-21" type, both of which stalled for lack of development funds. The logical answer for the Russians is a foreign partnership. France has its Rafale and European partners are focused on the Eurofighter, and European defense budgets can barely accommodate those at an adequate level. That leaves traditional Russian customers China and India as the remaining partner options.

From India's point of view, a firm development agreement that helps finance Russia's next-generation plane is one way to restrict Russian cooperation with China along similar lines. See Vijiander K Thakur's "Understanding IAF interest in the MiG fifth generation fighter" for more on the proposal to cooperate with MiG. Even so, India's procurement history is full of dead-ends and "almost weres" - which is why reaction to past announcements has been very muted at Defense Industry Daily. Now it's one step closer to a "will be," as India and Russia has signed a formal agreement to develop the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA).

My response is still inclined to be rather muted, until working designs are discussed and more is known. A "fifth-generation fighter" could be a project as ambitious as Indo-Russian cooperation on a aircraft like the MiG 1.44 or I-21. Or, it could turn out to be an updated version of the SU-30 family with uprated engines for supercruise, some level of sensor fusion, and an AESA radar. Then, too, the FGFA project has a non-trivial set of obstacles to overcome, in order to fly production versions for India and meet the project's goals.

For the specific releases and coverage to date, and analysis of the program's current state and future hurdles, DID offers a Spotlight article...

Estimating prospects for stability in Pakistan

Predictions, wags will say, are mostly wrong. Especially when they are about the future.

If that is so, the margin of error in predicting the course of events in Pakistan is near infinite. Predictions, though, have to be made. So here is something, composed in the American intelligence community’s national intelligence estimate (NIE) format. Lazy analysts facing deadlines will find it useful.

Get it from here

(Cross posted from The Acorn)

Welcome (back) to the Hotel Saudifornia

As the report in Dawn put it, the Musharraf regime used force and guile to send Nawaz Sharif bouncing back to Hotel Saudifornia. But as perspicacious commentators have it, no one in Pakistan actually won this round.

Gen Musharraf may have purchased some breathing room by expelling Nawaz Sharif. But by deciding to violate a Supreme Court decision, he has opened the doors for a new confrontation with the court and Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. If the court decides to confront him on this--and this will be the acid test of its newfound independence--he might well have to declare martial law. That too is unlikely to work--because the America won't be able to cover him beyond that point. But also because the people might come out on the streets.

read the rest! »

India's $10B+ MMRCA Fighter Competition

Believe it or not, stuff that matters happens outside of the USA sometimes.

"It's the biggest fighter aircraft deal since the early 1990s," said Boeing's Mark Kronenberg, who runs the company's Asia/Pacific business. DID has offered ongoing coverage of India's planned multi-billion dollar jet fighter buy, from its early days as a contest between Dassault, Saab, and MiG for a 126 plane order to the entry of American competitors and even EADS' Eurofighter. What began as a lightweight fighter competition to replace India's shrinking MiG-21 interceptor fleet appears to have bifurcated into two categories now, and two expense tiers.

That trend got a sharp boost in March 2006, when Press Trust of India (PTI) reported a surprise pullout by the CEO of Dassault on the eve of the RFP. The Mirage 2000v5 will no longer be fielded for the India deal, despite the fact that India already flies 40 Mirage 2000Ds and its senior officials have touted standardization as a plus factor. So, what's going on?

In a word, lots. The participants changed, India's view of its own needs is changing, and the nature of the order may be changing as well - but with the release of the official $10 billion RFP, the competition can begin at last. DID offers an in-depth look at the MMRCA competition's changes, the RFP, and the competitors...

No colours for the revolution in Pakistan

America is ignoring the popular movement against Musharraf to its own disadvantage

PostGlobal's Amar Bakshi is going around the world, lugging a laptop and a camcorder, to get a sense of how people in different countries view America. If he ever makes it to Pakistan, he's likely to find a country where anti-Americanism is rife. Pakistanis have genuine reasons to hold a negative opinion of American foreign policy---though not necessarily for the reasons Americans may be inclined to believe. Right now, they have little reason to nurse good feelings towards America, given Washington's determined refusal to demonstrate the smallest amount of sympathy for democracy and freedom in the ongoing confrontation between the people and the dictator.

read the rest! »

The Battle of Karachi

It's the anniversary of the 1857 uprising after all

Altaf Hussain's Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) party rules the streets of Karachi. It also runs the provincial government of Sindh province for Gen Musharraf. Its hold over Karachi is such that it does not really need to throw in its lot with Gen Musharraf as he fights his own citizens. That it has done so---and in such a brazen manner---suggests that it has hopes or promises of being part of the ruling establishment beyond the scheduled elections later this year.

For the time being though, it appears that it has badly miscalculated. Last week it forced cable operators off the air in order to prevent them from broadcasting live scenes of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry's rally in Lahore. Yesterday, it ensured that key roads and thoroughfares of Karachi were blocked, using trucks and vehicles to prevent the flow of traffic. Unknown gunmen shot at the residence of a leading lawyer representing the Chief Justice in his legal battle against the Musharraf regime. The official authorities, who too take orders from the MQM, did what they could to ensure that pro-Chief Justice activists and ordinary people were intimidated, while the MQM went about holding its own rally.

And today, MQM marksmen shot at the crowds.

read the rest! »

Walking away from a very good deal

The Acorn has been a supporter of the India-US nuclear deal as concluded between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President George Bush in March 2006. It has argued that for India, the benefits of the deal are worth making some difficult concessions---separating civilian nuclear facilities from military ones, and accepting constraints on the amount of fissile material India needs to produce nuclear weapons. The agreement allows India to retain a dynamic credible nuclear deterrent---although the contours of the deterrence need to change---while ending its costly isolation from the international nuclear power industry. The deal, moreover, is also part of a strategic transformation of relations with the United States mandated by convergence of interests in the geopolitics of the twenty-first century.

The Hyde Act, passed by the US Congress last year, introduced a qualitative change in the letter and spirit of the agreement that negotiators worked so hard to achieve. It has raised several contentious issues, but the most significant one involves linking America's keeping its end of the deal (to supply nuclear technology and fuel for India's civilian nuclear power industry) to India's non-testing of nuclear weapons.

read the rest! »

March 2007: Waziristan, Pakistan, and the War

Bill Roggio, who has earned deserved respect up to the highest levels of the US military for his coverage of the war from on the scene and from home, writes:

I hope all is well. My apologies in advance for a long email, I believe this is important and requires some explanation.

The media is getting the story of the fighting in Waziristan 100% wrong. The Pakistani government is claiming the fighting is between local tribes and Uzbek al Qaeda. Musharraf has a vested interest in doing so - it wants to promote the Waziristan Accord as a success that can be used elsewhere. The media very rarely looks at what Musharraf says critically.

The real truth is: The fighting began after Uzbeks killed an Arab al Qaeda fighter supported by the Taliban. This is essentially an internal conflict - like a mafia war. Think the Godfather. To settle the conflict, the Taliban sent in senior commanders, including Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Dadullah Akhund, military leader of the Afghan Taliban, to negotiate a truce between the factions. Digest that for a second, and you'll see who runs the show in Waziristan. And that this so-called 'pro-government tribe' is really just a Taliban group that is angry over the murder of one of their Al Qaeda patrons. I've written on this here.

See also this Roggio article on the larger situation in Pakistan, which is rapidly coming unglued; even guys like Carl Levin are beginning to sound the alarm.

There are significant implications here for NATO's Afghan operation, and indeed for the future course of the global war. Musharraf's phony accord has handed Osama and his Taliban allies a base comparable to pre-2001 Afghanistan. One they've been busy consolidiating; there are reports that America has no human intelligence left in those sanctuaries. Sanctuaries protected by the nuclear weapons Pakistan was unwisely allowed to obtain - and with the potential for future access to those weapons as al Qaeda and the Taliban further consolidate their strength within Pakistan.

India, Russia in Negotiations re: Next-Generation Fighter

From India's point of view, a firm development agreement that helps finance Russia's next-generation plane is one way to restrict Russian cooperation with China along similar lines. See Vijiander K Thakur's "Understanding IAF interest in the MiG fifth generation fighter" for more on the proposal to cooperate with MiG. Even so, India's procurement history is full of dead-ends and "almost weres" - which is why the March 1, 2007 "Advanced Combat Aircraft" release from India's Minister of State for Defence Production Shri Rao Inderjit Singh means very little at this point:

"The co-development of a Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft has been identified as an important area of cooperation between the Indian and Russian governments. Technical discussions to work out the details are in progress. Efforts are on for negotiations and finalization of the draft Inter-Governmental Agreement in this regard."

Which may, or may not, come to funded fruition via Indo-Russian cooperation on a MiG 1.44 (if indeed it was a real project?) or "I-21" type aircraft. Especially given the cost pressures on India's limited defense budget and pressing need to refurbish its existing fleet, modernize its fighters via the MRCA competition, bring the Tejas LCA on line to replace its MiG-21s, and add new platforms to patrol India's vital sea lanes, fulfill naval fighter needs, upgrade its transport aircraft fleet, and extend the IAF's reach. Meanwhile, India's SU-30MKIs remain one of the best 4th generation aircraft in the world, with a comfortable edge over regional rivals, good growth prospects, and superiority over most current and planned US aircraft as well.

Pakistan wants the US out of Afghanistan

On the very day a 'senior administration official' from the Bush administration had lunch with Gen Musharraf, by sheer coincidence, the Pakistanis arrested a senior administration official from the Taliban.

Such antics apart, Pakistan would like nothing better to get the US off its back in Afghanistan. Here's a post that Winds readers must read on this subject.

Afghan Reality

Bill Roggio nails the core reality of the Afghan front, as he discusses the failed British 'peace agreement' with the elders of Musa Qala, which has led to the town being overtaken by the Taliban. A local NATO offensive is imminent:

"As long at the Taliban and al-Qaeda maintain the sanctuaries in Quetta and the Northwest Frontier Province, the Afghan government and NATO forces will remain fighting a holding action. All of the offensive actions inside Afghanistan cannot destroy the massive Taliban infrastructure that has been built up over the past several years during the Pakistani government's neglect of this serious problem."

Roggio describes NATO ISAF's effort to keep up the pressure by going after the Taliban now, before the spring. In fairness, they are having some success. The USA is also involved, and their new winter clothing set is paying dividends. But Roggio's reality remains, NATO is several thousand troops short of the alliance's commitments in Afghanistan, and the latest reports say there is little likelihood that European countries will actually meet their declared obligations.

On a potentially brighter note. Roggio adds that Pakistan may be about to undertake operations in Waziristan again, following a string of suicide bombings in Pakistan. Their last operations led to the surrender of control over Waziristan and other western provinces, and the release of 2,500 al-Qaeda and Taliban cadre - more or less everyone they'd captured over the last 5 years. It also the suicide attacks, attempts on Musharraf's life, the murder of quite a few Shi'ites in all likelihood, and pretty much what you'd expect devotees of Deobandi Islam to do.

Perhaps this time, Pakistan will use regular soldiers instead of frontier irregulars. Perhaps this time, they won't lose 3,000 people trying. If they fail again, however, the USA is going to have to undertake a radical rethink of its Afghanistan strategy. In all likelihood, however, that won't happen until Afghanistan proves to be the graveyard of the NATO Alliance as well as the Soviet empire.

UPDATE: Wolf Pangloss has some near-term thoughts, all good. See again Roggio's depiction of the fundamental long-term reality.

China's ASAT test may settle a debate in India

Weapons in the final frontier

There are three ways of looking at it: China tested a new way to clean up orbital slots occupied by defunct satellites; it now has a way to take out space-based assets belonging to other countries; or, that it just created a whole lot of hazardous orbital junk up there. But let there be no mistake---it has also started this century's arms race. Star wars, ladies and gentlemen, has received a new lease of life.

What China did is not tremendously difficult to do. Both the United States and the Soviet Union have tested anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, but the post-cold war world has held back from testing space-related weapons. That unspoken taboo is now broken.

Where is India in all this? At least three air chiefs have publicly talked about the establishment of an Aerospace Command. Although the government has not approved its formation, the Indian air force has started "work on conceptualising (space-based) weapons systems and its operational command system". And then there are accounts of DURGA or Directionally Unrestricted Ray-Gun Array, and KALI or Kinetic Attack Loitering Interceptor. Whether or not these projects exist outside the anyone's imagination is not known. But the folks at DRDO have a way with acronyms. (Actually, these weapons may belong to the family of advanced weapons known to professionals as Vertically Aligned Polar Omnidirectional Uniform Radioactive Weapon And Re-entry Equipment.)

For now, the United States has reacted with reproach at the Chinese for having defected first in this prisoner's dilemma game. But the Chinese may have settled the domestic debate in the United States weapons programmes in space. They may have settled it in India too.

Related Links: Two posts on this at DefenseTech; Theresa Hitchens's report on developments in military space; on China Confidential

The clash of convictions and the remaking of the world of wars

The outcome of modern wars is decided in the mind

Armed combat, of course, is not about to disappear, although it may increasingly take the form of 'asymmetric warfare' as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. It could also take the shape of proxy war, like the one India is fighting in Jammu & Kashmir and the United States and NATO are fighting in Afghanistan. But days in which armed combat alone decided the fate of wars ended a long time ago: with World War II and perhaps, the India-Pakistan war of 1971.

This is old hat. All out war became unimaginable as soon as the major powers acquired nuclear weapons. Those that didn't have their own usually came under the umbrella of one of those that did. The game of nuclear deterrence--in spite of bizarrely escalating to the level where there were thousands of warheads--kept the peace. The stability/instability paradox argued that while nuclear deterrence ensured stability at the highest (nuclear) level of escalation, it nevertheless created instability at lower (non-nuclear) levels. The United States relied on this to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan. But the Pakistani general staff realised just how low the ceiling was at Kargil in 1999-2000. They were fine so long as they were only arming and injecting jihadis into Jammu & Kashmir. But when they decided to take a step further and actually try to capture and hold territory, they quickly found out exactly where the buck stopped.

But the outcome of most of these asymmetrical, low-intensity wars can go either way.

read the rest! »

Indian Matinee

Pointing and thinking from out of the tank

India pulled off a surprise this week when it successfully tested a prototype anti-ballistic missile system.

States in India's neighbourhood are on the brink --- why so, and why India has become part of the scenery.

Deciphering China is tough (well, not for some). And we need a Chinese Mitrokhin.

Kashmiri separatists --- some who think ethnic cleansing can be explained away by youthful indiscretion, and some whose words are taken a little too seriously. Here's why the jihadis can't stop fighting. Reporting Pakistani duplicity in the war on terror is as dangerous as it was.

On the Sachar Committee's report --- less patronisation and more economic freedom will benefit Muslims (and, for that matter, everyone else)

Is the economy bubbling?

One China policy

President Hu Jintao of China came, saw, signed agreements and left for Islamabad (to sign more agreements). Unfinished and inconclusive, the public debate over India's relations with China relations that preceded his visit will soon die down. In this debate, many of those with any experience actually dealing China on political issues had advised caution. Many of those whose primary experience of China has been through trade and investment advocated closer ties. The oversimplified question on everyone's lips was a cliche: Is China a friend or foe?

That, though, is a wrong question to ask. The inherent anthropomorphism in the framing of this question confuses the issue, for relations between states are not like relations between people.

read the rest! »

A Demonstration in Pakistan: Pashtuns Pointing the Way?

I'm working on a quickie state of the war roundup, though other commitments are making it a tough go. Short version: the war is going badly, we're in serious trouble, and evolution into The Islamic Wars is going from about 33% odds in my mind to somewhere around 80%. Iraq? About to get worse, but doesn't even rate as our second biggest problem - and a good argument can be made against 3rd place.

I'll explain later. Meanwhile, all I'll ask is that you remember this little tidbit, and consider it potentially instructive on a few levels:

Protesters at the rally in Chaman shouted "Down with terrorism in Afghanistan" and "Down with the policy of interference in Afghanistan".

Yawn, another set of Islamists and their leftist allies mouthing the same old slogans. Uhm, no...

"Several thousand ethnic Pashtuns rallied in a Pakistani town near the Afghan border on Tuesday, accusing Pakistan of meddling in Afghanistan's affairs. The protesters, Pakistani Pashtuns and some Afghan Pashtun refugees, accused Pakistan of providing sanctuary to Taliban militants, who have this year unleashed the most intense violence in Afghanistan since their 2001 ousting from power.

"We demand the government of Pakistan stops playing its game in Afghanistan," Hamid Khan Achakzai, a leader of a Pakistani Pashtun nationalist party and a former member of parliament, told the rally in the southwestern town of Chaman. "This duplicitous policy poses serious danger to the entire world," Achakzai said.

There's hope in this little scenario - and it may not lie where you think.

Concerns over another break-up of Pakistan are overblown

Both Pakistani and foreign commentators have started drawing parallels between the Musharraf regime's killing of Nawab Bugti and the Yahya Khan regime's genocide in East Bengal in 1971. The latter led to the breakup of Pakistan and the emergence of Bangladesh as an independent nation. Bugti's killing, it is being argued, may now cause Balochistan to go the same way. On the face of it, the analogy sounds plausible. But look below the surface and there are several important differences that challenge this argument.

read the rest! »

Afghanistan: Opium, War, and Strategy

Antonio Maria Costa, who directs the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (statistician, or organizer of? - at the UN, it's so hard to tell...) recently noted that opium cultivation in Afghanistan was scheduled to hit 6,100 tonnes: about 30% over global demand, and 92% of global supply. He added that the increase in cultivation was significantly fueled by the resurgence of the Taliban rebels in the south, where they are promising protection to growers and urging expansion of operations in exchange for a cut of the proceeds.

Over at The Agonist, Ian Welsh traces a number of these developments to recent anti-opium policies pursued without a lot of thought, and there's a good case for that. The issue is important enough that I'd urge you read his piece.

Now, here's where I think he goes off the rails.

read the rest! »

The Killing of a Nawab

Musharraf demonstrates his ability to get at those hiding in the remote Pakistan-Afghanistan border

The General had made no bones about it. The insurgency in Balochistan, he said last year, would be crushed. Under an effective media blackout and periodic denials by the civilians in government, Pakistani armed forces have been carrying out a massive military operation---involving special forces, tanks, artillery, helicopter gunships and fighter jets---against Baloch rebels. They drove Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti from his seat of power at Dera Bugti to the surrounding hills, and began resettling the rival factions of the Bugti tribe in areas that were previously under his control. Baloch rebel leaders and their kin were made targets of a campaign of intimidation. No holds were barred, and Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti himself became a primary target for the security forces.

read the rest! »

The Killing of a Nawab

Musharraf demonstrates his ability to get at those hiding in the remote Pakistan-Afghanistan border

The General had made no bones about it. The insurgency in Balochistan, he said last year, would be crushed. Under an effective media blackout and periodic denials by the civilians in government, Pakistani armed forces have been carrying out a massive military operation---involving special forces, tanks, artillery, helicopter gunships and fighter jets---against Baloch rebels. They drove Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti from his seat of power at Dera Bugti to the surrounding hills, and began resettling the rival factions of the Bugti tribe in areas that were previously under his control. Baloch rebel leaders and their kin were made targets of a campaign of intimidation. No holds were barred, and Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti himself became a primary target for the security forces.

read the rest! »

India's Biggest Internal Security Threat: Not Islamists

Well, shades of the 1960s. This appeared in the recent "Winds of War" briefing, but I thought I'd expand on it a bit because it's worth an independent reference.

Calling it India's "single biggest internal security challenge," Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently suggested setting up of joint unified commands in areas badly hit by Maoist terrorism. Dr Singh expressed concern over the changing character of Naxalism (Maoist ideology in India) into militarisation with "superior army style organisation, better trained cadres, attacks on large targets through large scale frontal assaults, better coordination and possible external links. We must recognise that such extremism is a threat to our democracy, our way of life," he said.

Gee, I wonder what "external links" he could possibly be referring to?

It's also noteworthy that we're seeing regional coordination beyond India, not to mention some Islamist alliances. Yes, I know communists and Islamists are ideologically hostile to each other. They, on the other hand, seem less concerned about that and more concerned with their common enemy. Funny how that goes...

read the rest! »

Arise the Khalsa!

There are many kinds of stories in religion, but two of the most significant are things we'll call Stories of Foundation and Stories of Definition. For the Jews, Abraham's rejection of idols and discovery of the One G-d is the major story of foundation, and Moses on Mount Sinai the major story of definition. Christians place Jesus in both roles, albeit at different times in his life. The crucifixion is their major story of definition, hence The Passion of the Christ.

The story of the Sri Guru Gobind Singh Sahib Ji at Anandpur, when he inducted the first Khalsas and then added an unusual very beneficial twist, stands among the most remarkable acts of definition in human history, defining both a religion and a people. It's also one of the most remarkable acts of leadership. Guru Gobind Rai was the 10th of the great Sikh Gurus, and as the story goes:

read the rest! »

STRATFOR on China's Growing "Maritime Morass" (updated)

Yet another follow-up to our "America's Asian Alliances" round-up from the other day. In "China's Stresses, Goals, Military Buildups... and Futures," we took a comprehensive look at the sociocultural trends, geo-political realities, and military efforts that were shaping China's relationships with the world. In the Geo-Political section, I wrote:

"China's big geopolitical weakness is, of course, geography. Though it will be dependent on naval lines of supply for many of the its future resources, including food, China is ringed by satellite powers that are well positioned to choke that access."

I give you STRATFOR's Feb. 15/06 piece, "China: Facing a Multinational Maritime Morass":

"The United States has invited the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Russia and India to participate in discussions on how to deal best with the threat of maritime terrorism in the Strait of Malacca, The Times of India reported Feb. 15. That China was left off the guest list indicates that a Russo-Indo-U.S. axis is forming to contain Beijing."

Well, not by itself; when we add a few more pieces to this puzzle, however, STRATFOR's thesis starts to look pretty solid.

read the rest! »

India's Air Force Looking to Spread Its Wings

Just to build on my recent post re: America's Asian Alliances....

India Defence notes India's Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi's recent remarks that Indian Air Force (IAF) plans to acquire more advanced fighters, sophisticated defence systems and smart long-range weapons, as the country's "strategic boundaries have been redefined" by its growing energy needs and participation in disaster management operations. Tyagi said the current scenario "necessitated a strategic reach to safeguard our national interests".

That's a positive sign, and one of the things the USA was looking at when it made the India alliance a priority.

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First-hand account of military relief efforts in Pakistan

A colleague passes along this from an email about LTC David F. West, head of preventative medicine for the 212th Mobile Army Surgical Hospital (MASH). Thought you might like to know what he and team are doing as part of the relief effort after Pakistan's massive earthquake.

David's Preventive Medicine team (usually 7 people but at times as many as 11) gave over 20,000 immunizations to more than 6,000 people in the 4 months of actual operational time they spent in Pakistan. They also distributed more than 200 boxes of clothing, blankets and toys that were donated by the Landstuhl Army Community.

They usually worked with the village school teacher or elder because they knew the communities and made distributing the clothing orderly. In one village the teacher said they had already "all the usual" vaccinations, now they needed the one for air pollution...that's an example of how advanced they believe American technology is! In another village the people had already been vaccinated (perhaps by Canadian or Australian Forces) and they had good clothing. When David asked what they needed the teacher said they had no books for the school. So David and his team got a list of the books needed, went back to the MASH and collected money (15,000 rupees, or about $250), bought the books and took them to the village...

David says the local people were friendly, very hospitable and welcoming, and knew the US Army personnel were there to help.

The Cartoon Jihad: Mutiny Against The Bounty

Karim Elsahy of One Arab World notes:

"PESHAWAR, Pakistan - A Pakistani cleric announced Friday a $1 million bounty for killing a cartoonist who drew Prophet Muhammad, as thousands joined street protests and Denmark temporarily closed its embassy and advised its citizens to leave the country."

His response: "Hell, No."

"Even in Pakistan that is illegal. That man should be arrested at once and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. His assets should be frozen immediately. Here is a directorate of almost all Pakistani missions and embassies. Call what's local to you and demand this mans arrest... Most importantly, Muslims ask your Imams to condemn this in his next sermon. I'm on my way now to go pray at my mosque in [Cambridge, MA] and that is exactly what I am going to do."

Good on him - and he has a number of links, if you too want to exert some local and international pressure.

Gen Musharraf: Both troubled and secure

Pakistan's president can deal with his problems (with a little help from India and the United States), writes The Acorn

The Cynical Nerd points to two apparently contradictory reports on Gen Musharraf: from the field, Amit Varma contends that Musharraf is in a strong position; The Economist reports that troubles are piling up for Pakistan's president. Surely, both cannot be true at the same time?

Yet they are.

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Gen Musharraf: Both troubled and secure

Pakistan's president can deal with his problems (with a little help from India and the United States), writes The Acorn

The Cynical Nerd points to two apparently contradictory reports on Gen Musharraf: from the field, Amit Varma contends that Musharraf is in a strong position; The Economist reports that troubles are piling up for Pakistan's president. Surely, both cannot be true at the same time?

Yet they are.

read the rest! »

The Waziristan Rebellion

As indicated by this report and a stream of others, Pakistan is increasingly being challenged in Waziristan by al-Qaeda and its allies, a situation that has been steadily building in momentum ever since the failure of Pakistani troops to defeat al-Qaeda and its IMU allies in the spring of 2004.

This poses a difficult question for the US since our favored policy since late 2001 has been to support the Musharraf government in Pakistan and assist them in fighting al-Qaeda as an internal Pakistani affair. But if the Pakistani military is more or less thrown out of Waziristan as is now looking more and more as may be the case, I think it's fair to raise the question of what we do then given our current problems with regard to US overstretch and the delicate nature of the political situation there. I certainly don't have the answer, but I sure as hell hope that somebody does.

See all Winds coverage related to Waziristan.

Further madrassa musings

As kind of a follow-up to my earlier post in response to William Dalrymple's thoughts on madrassas in the New York Review of Books, the Pakistani newspaper Daily Times, as part of its ongoing and excellent coverage of the "Talibanization" of northern Pakistan over the last several years notes that Pakistani colleges like the Government Degree College in Mir Ali, North Waziristan are breeding grounds for al-Qaeda support and that a student from that university was among those fighters killed alongside senior al-Qaeda leader Abu Hamza Rabia, an event that sort of raises some questions in and of itself.

This anecdote is particularly telling:

A senior teacher at the college said that at least one in four families had lost a member to ‘jihad’ and the youth were inspired by the tribesmen against forces fighting the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan. “The tribal youth are the biggest casualty of the war on terror in FATA. As you know the best education one can get is at home and there is no tribal family without pro-jihadi sentiments,” the teacher told Daily Times.

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USAF vs. Indian Air Force -- Cope India 2005

Articles in the Christian Science Monitor and on Indian blogs are touting Indian Air Force performance in Russian made Su-30 Flankers versus US Air Force F-16s in the Cope India 2005 exercise.

Like many other things in the Main Stream Media, after all the hype against the American military, the real story is what they didn't say.

There are a huge number of equipment and doctrine varables involved that either the reporter didn't know or didn't use because it did not fit the "frame" of the story he wanted to write.

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The New Delhi bombings

The New Delhi bombings represent, to the best of my knowledge, the worst terrorist attack that India has ever suffered in its capital, with the death toll currently standing at 61 and will likely rise as more information comes in. While India faces more than two dozen terrorist and separatist groups of varying sizes and compositions at any given time, all of the attention is rightly being focused on Pakistan-based Islamist groups, in particular the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). As one of the two groups that masterminded the failed December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament, the LeT is one of the handful of terrorist groups with the infrastructure and sophistication to carry out an attack on this scale.

In addition to these basic notes, there are other reasons to suspect the LeT's hand in this atrocity - a Delhi court recently convicted 7 LeT members for their role in the 2000 Red Fort attack. Moreover, the LeT is one of only a handful of Pakistani terrorist gr