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October 11, 2006McCain on North Korea - Good, But Not Enoughby Joe Katzman
Sen. John McCain has a CQ Guest Blog about the recent North Korean nuke test. In "Why North Korea is the Wrong Focus," I warned about next steps that won't be enough to make a difference - and unfortunately, McCain's suggestions are a good example of that dynamic at work. The simple truth is that China will not implement or carry out the sanctions he envisions, for the reasons I discussed, unless faced with a downside large enough to both cancel their expected gains from enabling North Korea, and offer the reality of a fear greater than their fear of a North Korean refugee tsunami. McCain offers nothing of the kind. On the plus side, his post accurately diagnoses the failures of the previous policy, and correctly calls where this is probably headed. September 11, 2006North Korea's Coming Nuclear Testby Trent Telenko
These opening lines from this UK TELEGRAPH article speak for themselves: Russian diplomats believe it is now "highly probable" that North Korea will officially join the nuclear club by carrying out its first underground test of an atomic device. Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader, is said to have made clear his intention to explode a device during recent talks with Russian and Chinese officials in Pyongyang. Given the the joint international nature of North Korea's nuclear program, Iran will have an arsenal of tested nuclear missile warheads for its ballistic missile arsenal of Chinese design and North Korean construction in 30-90 days after that test. May 31, 2006Bad and less badby Yehudit
[ UPDATE: Coincidentally, an article about US atrocities in the Korean War appeared today, illustrating the hard and sometimes unacceptable choices Ben talks about. ] Occasional Kesher Talk pundit Ben: As usual for me, a bit late; Memorial Day is already past. It takes time to put things together. For example, exactly twenty years ago, I was in Korea, and although I knew I was learning a lot, it would be years before I had an understanding of exactly what I had learned. Korea in 1986 was an adolescent society, coming of age, rebelling against itself, finding its place in the world. It was looking forward to hosting the Olympics, Hodori the Tiger was everywhere, the Daewoo building was the tallest in Asia, Hyundai was an up and coming contender in the auto world but had yet to export to the United States, and occasionally clouds of tear gas would drift across university campuses. September 19, 2005North Korea to disarm?!!by Dan Darling
So says Associated Press, which says that they're throwing in the towel as far as their nuclear weapons program is concerned. If true, this is a major triumph for US diplomacy and a definite positive step. Still, let's be sure that we trust but verify on the dismantling after what happened the last time ... Prediction: If this in fact pans out, people who have previously argued that the North Korean diplomacy was a complete failure will now start arguing that this would have happened anyway regardless of what the US did. UPDATE: I've gotten some mail to the effect that it's going to take a lot more than reassuring words as far as Kim Jong Il's pledges are concerned. This is why I thought I stressed verification - as part of any agreement. Joe's Dartblog also provides some helpful commentary on the situation. August 16, 2005North Korean Insult Generatorby Joe Katzman
 This was just too classic. Reader Tom Holsinger directs us to the good folks at NK-News.NET, who've collected every piece of the Mordor-state's lunatic Stalinist ravings since December 1996 and put it online via their ST.A.L.I.N. search engine. Congrats on the Yahoo! News coverage, too. As nifty addenda, N-K News offers the world's first Stalinist RSS feed (The New Statesman probably has too many crypto-bourgeois deviants to qualify) - and best of all, the North Korea insult generator! Here's what the man who obviously murdered every barber in his entire country had to say about Winds of Change.NET:
The Kos Kidz only wish they were this good. Get insulted today! April 1, 2005Defense Industry Highlights: 2005-04-01by Joe Katzman
As many of you know, Winds of Change.NET isn't my only blog these days. Here are a few of the articles I've been running on DefenseIndustryDaily.com, in case you've missed them - a combination of interesting tech and a bit of "defenseology" from the military/ organizational side of the ledger: TOP TOPICS
Other Items Include: MQ-1 Predator plans; V-RAMBO; New semiconductors; battlefield visualization; Shoulder-fired missile defenses for planes; $1.5bn NORAD upgrade; 30,000 JDAMs; Ultralight 155mm howitzers; Halliburton; Navy program way over budget; F/A-22; What's this Joint Common Missile controversy?; BAE buys M2 Bradley manufacturer for $4bn; British to privatize their aerial tanker fleet for $25bn?; Turkey's turkey of an idea; South Korea increasing defense budgets. March 18, 2005Hairstyles and Autocracyby 'Cicero'
The construction of cellular relay stations last fall along the Chinese side of the border has allowed some North Koreans in border towns to use prepaid Chinese cellphones to call relatives and reporters in South Korea, defectors from North Korea say. And after DVD players swept northern China two years ago, entrepreneurs collected castoff videocassette recorders and peddled them in North Korea. Now tapes of South Korean soap operas are so popular that state television in Pyongyang, North Korea's capital, is campaigning against South Korean hairstyles, clothing and slang, visitors and defectors have said. "In the 1960's in the Soviet Union, it was cool to wear blue jeans and listen to rock and roll," said Andrei Lankov, a Russian exchange student in the North at Kim Il Sung University in 1985, who now teaches about North Korea at Kookmin University here in the South. "Today, it is cool for North Koreans to look and behave South Korean, as they do in the television serials. That does not bode well for the long-term survival of the regime."Perhaps North Korea's Hairstylist-in-Chief should consider adjusting his own puffy coif to match the times. When hairstyles threaten a regime, it's just a matter of time before its reign is finished. March 6, 2005The L.A. (Pyonyang) Timesby Joe Katzman
Armed Liberal's Paging Mel Brooks... was a darkly funny look at some pretty unfunny media malfeasance and stupidity. Lots of bloggers piling on here, and deservedly so. Of all the regimes to shill for, North Korea's has a vileness that almost beggars description. Great Duranty's ghost! Anyway, Hugh Hewitt compiles all the blogger links and leads the charge. He isn't a real blogger because he has no permalinks, just temporary ones (Hugh, buddy, fix that!). This is his best piece, noting the LA Times' stonewalling, advancing the 'South Africa test', and pointing out that the reporter has a history of writings that raise further questions about her. Ms. Demick then sends Hugh a letter, which he mercilessly fisks. March 3, 2005Paging Mel Brooks...by Armed Liberal
Franz Liebkind: Not many people know it, but the Fuhrer was a terrific dancer.On the front page of the L.A. Times today: N. Korea, Without the Rancor - A businessman speaks his mind about the U.S., the 'nuclear club' and human rights issues.Now one thing to note is this: February 15, 2005Simon's China and East Asia Highlights: 2005-2-15by Simon World
Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on East Asia, courtesy of Simon World. Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog, posted twice a week (the latest edition is here and the full archive here). The following is a digest of highlights from the Asia by Blog series. Wishing you all a happy and prosperous Year of the Rooster. The round-up has four key areas of focus:
January 7, 2005North Korea Arming Islamic Terrorists?by Joe Katzman
The Word Unheard has an interesting post covering North Korean arms shipments to the hilariously-named Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the Philippines. Astuteblogger has further reports. North Korea's utterly failed economy, appetite for cash, and willingness to sell weapons to anyone are all well known. If they are in fact arming al-Qaeda affiliates, it adds a new dimension to debates about their nuclear and missile programs. December 24, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-12-24by The Marmot's Hole
Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. Today's Regional Briefing focuses on Korea, courtesy of Robert Koehler in Seoul. Top Topics
Also on tap: South Korea cracking down on "planned defections," U.S. neocons launch offensive on Seoul, Japan gets ticked off mightily at North Korea, the times might SOON be a'changin in Pyongyang, and much, much more! November 30, 2004Simon's China and East Asia Highlights: 2004-11-30by Simon World
Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here and the full archive here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. The following is a digest of highlights from the past month's Asia by Blog series. The round-up has four key areas of focus:
November 12, 2004North Korea: What Now? What Next?by Joe Katzman
Robert Koehler, who lives in Seoul and does our outstanding Eyes on Korea regional briefings, has taken the time to translate a couple of Korean media interviews with American scholars Nick Eberstadt of AEI and Institute for International Economics Senior Fellow Marcus Noland. I found both interviews uncontroversial and usefully informative as a going-forward overview, but apparently they've caused a bit of a storm in South Korea. Marmot begins to explain why, but this STRATFOR analysis re: Bush's re-election and its implications around the globe really nails it. October 27, 2004New Energy Currents: 2004-10-27by Guest Author
The world faces an onslaught of news stories beginning with "With the price of oil currently at $50 a barrel..." Get used to the hurt - with surging oil consumption in China, dwindling supplies of easily recoverable oil and gas, and widespread instability in many of the key energy producing regions of the world, the energy market isn't going to become significantly less painful any time soon. Beyond our woes in the industrialized world, billions of people in the developing world will also need to increase their energy consumption dramatically in the years to come, as they work to meet their basic needs and increase their standard of living. Despite what we might hear from the US presidential candidates (and energy lobbyists), there are no easy and no ready solutions to our energy problems. Fortunately, there's a lot of hard work being done by scientists, engineers, and (sometimes) policymakers around the world to come up with a wide variety of potential approaches that will compete with as well as compliment each other as we slowly transform our energy systems. To help you keep track of these developments as they happen, 'New Energy Currents' is a broad but by no means comprehensive compilation of noteworthy news in energy technology and policy from the past month. By John Atkinson of Chiasm. Simon's E. Asia Briefing: 2004-10-27by Simon World
Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). You can be notified by email when it is updated, just drop me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. The following is a digest of highlights from the past month's Asia by Blog series. The round-up has four key areas of focus:
October 26, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-10-26by The Marmot's Hole
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On Tap This Month: NK defectors making "big push"; Chinese humanitarianism; Reactions to the NK Human Rights Act; The information war; NK prison camps; Various diplomatic & military strategies; ROK in Iraq; Anti-Americanism in ROK; US Forces changes; Prostitutes; Silicon butts, and much more! October 11, 2004North Korea: Making the Pointby Robin Burk
Yesterday I pointed to an article by Nicholas Eberstadt in Policy Review which made the case that North Korea is attempting to organize its economy around arms exports and is creating instability where it can, in order to create demand for its products. Eberstadt does not rule out reform in North Korea, but his article makes it clear that the regime is deliberately pursuing a course in which military R&D and arms sales are central -- and therefore, not likely to be open to negotiation. Today's headline from the Khaleej Times illustrates the way in which the NORK regime attempts to keep the pot boiling: Bellicose North Korea warns UN “sanctions mean war”(AFP) October 10, 2004What is Propping up the North Korean Regime?by Robin Burk
What to do about North Korea? This long blog entry is a summary of a much longer, detailed analysis of what hasn't worked so far - and why. Given years of starvation, the brutal if canny dictatorship of Kim Il Jung and the occasional exploding train, why hasn't the North Korean state collapsed? Nicholas Eberstadt predicted they would, several years ago. Today, however, North Koreans are no longer starving and they pose a serious threat to international stability. Eberstadt has a thought-provoking article out in Policy Review that examines The Persistance of North Korea. And his conclusions are strongly stated: US aid begun in 1998 not only allowed the NORK regime to survive, it also directly enabled them to proliferate deadly missiles and WMD technologies on the black market. North Korea, he argues, is following a deliberate policy of living off of foreign aid, while bulding a self-sustaining economy based on creating demand for its arms and WMD products by fostering instability around the world. Before getting into the details (statistics, policy statements), Eberstadt looks for a parallel situation in history to North Korea's persistance and finds one from a century ago. In what is certainly going to be viewed by some as a provocative charge, he compares the situation with North Korea a few years ago to the Franco-British campaign at Gallipoli in WWI, in which 100,000 lives were lost in a futile attempt to bring down the tottering Ottoman empire -- and finds disturbing parallels. September 29, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-09-29by The Marmot's Hole
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On Tap This Month: S. Koreans helping N. Koreans produce nerve gas, S. Korean intellectual criticizes biased and unobjective U.S. understanding of N. Korea, S. Korean spooks for Kerry, N. Korean pressure cookers, the Great S. Korean prostitution crack down, and much, much more! September 28, 2004Simon's E. Asia Overview & PRC News: Sep 28/04by Simon World
Asia by Blog is a twice weekly feature at my blog Simon World, posted on Mondays and Thursdays (the latest edition is here). This is an excerpt of some of the highlights from those round-ups over the past month. You can be notified by email when it is updated: just send me an email at simon-[at]-simonworld-[dot]-mu-[dot]-nu. This briefing has been cross-posted at Simon World. The round-up has four key areas of focus, with the main area being greater China: September 20, 2004America's North Korea Optionsby Joe Katzman
Via Simon World's recent "Asia by Blog," I found an interesting article by Winston Marshall of Power Politics called The Option of Last Resort:
It's an interesting argument, and an excellent discussion of the 4 main options under consideration. As for his conclusion, we'll see. Containment strategies have built-in instability, and the risks in this case are extremely high. Is containment Plan A for the United States - or Plan B? September 12, 2004North Korea Bomb Test?by Joe Katzman
There have been some reports filtering through lately that North Korea may have tested an atomic weapon on Sept. 9th, the holiday that commemorates North Korea's founding. There were even some preliminary reports from Russian sources of an imminent test. Today's NY Times has more. Now there's also news of a huge explosion in Yanggang province and a mushroom cloud 3.5-4 kilometers, or 2.2-2.5 miles, in diameter that was visible from satellite on that day. The nature of that explosion is unconfirmed at present. Even a large mushroom cloud can still be a conventional explosion. CNN is reporting that it is not a nuclear explosion, but their reasoning is odd. Mind you, it was near a known missile base so it could be a major accident. As an aside, Agence France Press reports that the explosion seems to have been larger than the massive Ryongchon train blast this April 22. That's very big indeed, as the Ryongchon photos demonstrate. September 10, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-09-10by The Marmot's Hole
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On Tap This Month: NK's new missiles; Moonies helping NK?; Chinese maneuvers on NK border, dispute with SK; Pizza for Kim; Insults R Us; More defectors; Engagement vs. human rights; US Troop withdrawal; USFK & Korean soldiers to Iraq; SK not an ally?; Paul Hamm; Western media doesn't 'get' Korea; Korean bloggers. August 25, 2004Simon's E. Asia Overview: Aug 25/04by Simon World
It's time to have a look at East Asia and what's been making the news in Asian blogs over the past month. Simon World has a twice weekly post called Asia by Blog, and this is an excerpted set from over the past month. N.B. Simon's new blog showcase features the newest blogging talent from around the world... and speaking of new talent - big congratulations on the birth of Simon's new baby boy. July 29, 2004How Do You Spell "Mengele" in Korean?by Joe Katzman
From the BBC, via Josh at One Free Korea blog:
Now close your eyes real tight and repeat to yourself: "North Korea's regime isn't evil, they just have their own narrative..." over and over again, lest the political correctness police cite you for insufficient validation of other cultures and lifestyles. Or, if you're a sane individual, keep the pressure on America's Senate to pass the North Korean Human Rights Act. I'm not an American - but I can pressure my own political representatives to pass a similar law, and I will. July 28, 2004North Korea: Making a Differenceby Joe Katzman
Last week, in Simon's East Asia Regional Briefing, One Free Korea explained what the North Korean Human Rights Act would do. Then he explained why it was important for Americans to contact their representatives. He even had a sample letter to help. It was a powerful post. As I noted at the time:
Now Josh writes in to tell us what happened in the wake of efforts like yours: July 21, 2004Simon's East Asia Overview: 2004-07-21by Guest Author
Simon runs a regular overview feature on his blog, Simon World, where "East meets Westerner." He's also the founder of the New Blog Showcase for bloggers just starting out. One good turn deserves another, Simon... so with his agreement, his overview is cross-posted today to Winds of Change.NET. TOP TOPICS
INSIDE Doing the rounds for the Asian blogging round-up: July 20, 2004Asia: Nuclear Power's New Frontierby Joe Katzman
Saturday's Alternative Energy Options Growing post on Winds of Change.NET discussed the growth of alternative energy companies and technologies, and what a future mixed-energy infrastructure might look like. While these alternative technologies are valuable, they won't shift our dependence away from fossil fuels any time soon. They won't even stop the growth of nuclear power, which is on something of a comeback trail world-wide. As the Christian Science Monitor recently noted (note to non-Americans: not what you think, and a very respected paper):
Here's the full CSM article. These nuclear power trends in China and India are definitely worth your attention, and the article's 1999 map of North Korea's nuclear facilities is worth the visit all by itself. Here in Canada, meanwhile, Ontario's recent report on restructuring our power industry shows both of these trends in action: encouragement of alternative and distributed energy sources, coupled with expansion of the nuclear power option. May 11, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-05-11by The Marmot's Hole
Today's Headings Include:
April 13, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-04-13by The Marmot's Hole
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Other Topics Today Include: RAND study of ROK-US relations; Major US military realignment; SK elections and key info sources; More on SK & Iraq; NK Freedom Day April 28; NK budget & reforms bad news; What - no visas?; NK TV & Internet; NK - a middle way?; Libya model for NK; Spotlight on NK apologists in SK & USA. March 16, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-03-16by The Marmot's Hole
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Other Topics Today Include: NK Nukes; More dispatches from hell; North Korea roundup; More on Roh's impeachment; South Korea roundup; US Forces Korea; Your moment of Zen from Big Hominid. March 5, 2004Eyes on Korea: Dispatches from Hellby The Marmot's Hole
JK: In the entire span of human history, only a handful of regimes have ever descended to the depths of depravity, callousness, and deliberate, consitent infliction of human suffering one sees in North Korea. In this interim briefing by RK of The Marmot's Hole, we focus on the true nature of the evil North Korean regime, and the human consequences of its continued existence. Contemplating this topic may or may not change our policies - we may not have many alternatives. But at least we will then be making our choices consciously, and giving the regime's victims a voice instead of ignoring them as an inconvenience. Concentration Camps
January 23, 2004Eyes on Korea: 2004-01-23by The Marmot's Hole
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ALSO ON TAP TODAY: Stamp wars, Internet Wars, and History Wars; 3,000 ROK troops to Kirkuk; North Korea makes "bold" concessions; a look into the Great North Korean famine; USFK to leave Seoul; ROK Foreign Minister resigns, with implications for future US-ROK ties; dumb South Korean TV show ideas (but some decent movie ideas), and much, MUCH MORE. December 9, 2003Eyes on Korea: 2003-12-09by The Marmot's Hole
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ALSO ON TAP TODAY: South Koreans killed in Iraq; Redeploying USFK; China & Korea fight over ancient history; Josh Marshall on Korean diplomacy; Riots; Bruce Cumings attacks; Hunger strikes; North Korea & racial purity; anti-Americanism on South Korean campuses; the LG credit card crisis and much, MUCH MORE. November 10, 2003Andrew's Winds of War: 2003-11-10by Andrew Olmsted
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Other Topics Today Include: Iran's official acceptance of nuclear inspections; al Qaeda looks at cargo planes; Saudi Arabia goes after terrorists in Mecca; North Korea updates; Israel rewards terrorism; and future warfare ain't like the movies. October 14, 2003Eyes On Korea: 2003-10-14by The Marmot's Hole
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ALSO ON TAP TODAY: Total Recall in South Korea; Wider regional role for USFK; NK Developments; Nukes updates; What to do about NK; Lifestyles of the Rich and Stalinist; the ROK forces to Iraq debate; Food aid to NK; NK's economy; Professor Song Du-yul: Traitor?; Security guarantees and human rights; Kim's one-finger salutes in Beantown, and so much more! September 22, 2003Andrew's Winds of War: 2003-09-22by Andrew Olmsted
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