Brazil Ups Defense Budget 50%, Goes Shopping for Fighters

Upgraded F-5BR
(click to view full)

Venezuelan dictator Huge Chavez remains the gift that keeps on giving, as Brazil's President Lula authorizes Brazilian Air Force Commander Juniti Saito to restart the F-X fighter program in January 2008. "F-X2" aims to acquire 36 next generation fighters for the Brazilian Air Force, which is currently depending on Super Tucano/ALX surveillance and light attack turboprops, AMX subsonic light fighters, modernized F-5BRs whose design dates back to the 1960s era, and a squadron of 12 Mirage 2000s built in the early 1980s. A previous 2001 F-X competition was put on hold in 2003, and then canceled in February 2004 due to budget difficulties and political issues.

Amazing what adding just one wacko to the mix will do. Could the words "Brazilian fighter" begin evoking images unrelated to the Gracies? A proposed 50% boost to Brazil's defense budget could be on its way to accomplishing that, and more. While the Navy and Army are also in line for funds to replace broken-down equipment, the fighters will be a critical centerpiece of the Força Aérea Brasileira's efforts, with a $2.2 billion budget behind them. The aircraft under consideration are mostly the same set of 4+ generation fighters that were considered last time - but the competition may have become more important to at least one of the competitors.

Defense Industry Daily looks at the background, and the new round of F-X2 competitors from France, Russia, Sweden, and Europe's EADS....

Russia Looks to Triple Arms Exports to Venezuela

Mi-35M Pirana
(click to view full)

Brazil's Defesanet reports that Rusia's Rosoboronexport expects to double or triple its defense industry contracts with Venezuela, which currently amount to around $4 billion for 24 SU-30MK fighters, 50 helicopters (Mi-17, Mi-35 Pirana attack, giant Mi-26 transport), 12 Tor-M1 anti-air missile sets, and 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles. Rosoboronexport official Sergei Ladiguin has reportedly referred to additional deals in the works for ships, aircraft & helicopters, missiles, and land forces equipment.

Partly as a response to their neighbor Venezuela's buildup, and partly in response to aging equipment that is falling apart, Venezuela's larger neighbor Brazil recently moved to increase its own annual defense budget from $3.5 billion to $5 billion. Russian equipment will be strong contenders for key Brazilian contracts as well, including 4+ generation fighters, transport/attack helicopters, and naval contracts.

Russia was well known for producing and exporting fast attack missile boats during the Cold War, and recent years have seen a renewed emphasis on naval exports. Rosoboronexport has reportedly been been pushing "Mirazh" patrol craft and Murena-E hovercraft in Latin American sales campaigns, and the country also makes the new Stereguschiy Class stealth corvettes.

Additional Readings & Sources

• Council on Hemispheric Affairs (March 20/07) - The Russian Arms Merchant raps on Latin America's Door
• DID Spotlight - Venezuela Buying SU-30s, Helicopters, et. al. From Russia. Covers those deals and updates.
• DID (Nov 22/05) - F.I. Looks At Latin American Arms Market, Sees Venezuelan Buildup. Forecast International valued Venezuela's military modernization program at up to $30.7 billion through 2012, which would make the country the leading arms buyer in the region through the rest of the decade.

Do cry for Venezuela: the vulnerability of an easily amended Constitution

Castro's not really dead, although most likely dying, despite his TV cameo appearance.

Chavez's star, however, is in the ascendance, and expanding fast. He's the new Castro, with a bigger field to play on than Castro ever had: Venezuela.

Chavez has set the stage by taking on greatly expanded powers to nationalize Venezuela's industries as part of his campaign to "maximize socialism" in Venezuela. He plans to use his newly acquired powers to nationalize and/or control telecommunications, electricity, the oil and gas industry, and:

....dictate unspecified measures to transform state institutions; reform banking, tax, insurance and financial regulations; decide on security and defense matters such as gun regulations and military organization; and "adapt" legislation to ensure "the equal distribution of wealth" as part of a new "social and economic model."

Okey dokey; that's democracy, I guess. After all, as his supporters say [italics mine], "Socialism is democracy," and, "We want to impose the dictatorship of a true democracy and 'power to the people'" (now, just where have we heard that last phrase before?)

read the rest! »

Hugo Chavez' Diplomatic Offensives

Or should that be "offensive diplomatics"? It would appear that El Caudillo Idiotario Chavez is generating no small share of backlash in his own neighbourhood, and even becoming a political liability to the Left in Latin America.

"None of this diplomatic buffoonery makes Hugo Chavez less potentially destabilizing. Chavez is determined to use petrodollars to win friends and to use arms sales - and, potentially, military adventurism - to intimidate foes. The danger he poses ought not to be taken lightly. As things currently stand, however, it seems that Chavez's foes have a lot to be thankful for. If they could not have a friend in the president of Venezuela, they at least got the next best thing; a thoroughly ridiculous enemy."

Not to mention the personification of just about every tradition of Latin American socio-economic failure that we've seen over the last century or so. But that's another subject.

Fidel: lower than room temperature?

Some assessments of announcements from Havana about Fidel Castro's "surgery" say they are just commie-speak preludes to announcing his death, which many believe has already occurred. Borrowing from Monty Python's dead parrot sketch, BOTWT offered:

"'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! This is an ex-tyrant!!"

Here is my first-blush opinion. First, the original announcements from Havana said that Fidel's surgery was so serious (he's 80) that he had formally turned executive authority over to his lsightly-younger brother, Raul. Raul was already "the second-ranking member of the Cuban Council of State." That means he was Cuba's numero dos to begin with. As has been reptitively noted by others, there is no prior record of any such transfer of power from Fidel to Raul or anyone else.

Since the Cuban health minister has said that Fidel's recuperation is expected to take 4-6 weeks, one wonders why a formal transfer of power was needed at all, when the transfer recipient was (a) already second in command of a dictatorship and (b) the brother of the number one. Raul has long wielded considerable executive authority already. For such a short time Raul would already be the go-to man for the government.

read the rest! »

Mexican Immigration: What's That Like?

No, no, no. I'm not talking about Mexican illegal immigrants in the USA.

I'm talking about being an immigrant in Mexico - legal or illegal. What's that like? How do they treat such people? What do they allow or forbid? How does that stack up with the things they advocate in America? Is there racism? Due process? How does all of this intersect with Mexican politics?

Get your answers right here.

Those Left Behind

There’s certainly a lot of discussion about immigration (esp from Latin America) this week. Today Marc Cooper blasts off on ostensible liberals who, frightened a bit by the political mass of the recent marches are suddenly sensitive to the pressure immigrants put on our labor movement.

It’s certainly a conundrum – a problem that has to be considered in five or six dimensions to be considered honestly. And I’d like to add one more just because the problem is obviously too simple as it's formulated today.

The question is the intermediate- and long-term impact of this kind of migration not on the U.S., but on the source countries.

read the rest! »

Latin America: No Mas

Thans to a tip from Spanish reader Joe Aguilar, I came across Carlos Alberto Montaner. He pretty much nails geo-political reality re: Latin America.

"Greatly concerned, Aguinis recalled another tragic region of the planet where something similar occurred on a scale even more dramatic: Africa. Africa is also irrelevant and is taken into account only when some catastrophe or extraordinary massacre is reflected in newspaper headlines. I might even add another interesting case of decivilization: Turkey....

Actually, it's worse than that. Africa has more valuable resources, and is set up as a major locus of future competition between China and India. Latin America's likely fate will be to matter less than Africa in the geopolitics of the 21st Century. Morales is quite correct when he says:

read the rest! »

Latin America: Snapshots & Mirrors

Marc Cooper has a pair of pieces up that are worth reading:

• Thirty Years Later: Meeting the Death Squads. In the wake of Winds affiliate Randy Paul's reminder that Friday the 24th is the 30th anniversary of the installation of the military dictatorship in Argentina, Marc Cooper has his own personal experience of being in Argentina during that time. Being invited into a green Ford Falcon = no foolin' trouble.

• "The Che Complex:" No Mo' Heroes, Por Favor!:

"Thanks to the Democratic Left list-serve I have come across a stunningly intelligent posting from a previously unknown (to me) and mysterious blogger. Oso Raro over at Slaves of Academe is one smart gal -- though that's all she let's us know about her.

But what a thrillingly intelligent (and wonderfully long) essay she has penned about the new Hero Worship around one, um, er, Hugo Chavez. Though, that's not really fair. Her take is much deeper than that and -- from a definite left-of-center position-- probes the psyche of First World Leftists who have an insatiable need to project their own frustrated dreams on some tin-pot character like Col. Chavez. It's what she calls The Che Complex..."

It's one heck of an essay, and grapples with a certain important trrain from a left-wing perspective that works like Hollander's "Political Pilgrims" have addressed from the center-right. One more building stone in the "Decent Left" movement represented by folks like Democratiyya; the exchanges in Marc's comments section are also ineresting in a weird sort of way.

Protecting Baja's Grey Whales

Baja California is actually part of Mexico (no jokes about it being ahead of the curve). Concrete buildings are sprouting like weeds lately, and the region has been enjoying a boom of the same kind that made Cancun what it is today. Plus a couple of would-be mining operations. This is doubly unfortunate, as this area is also critical to the Grey Whale population.

Here at Winds, we've talked about the inseparability of ecology and conservation from economics, and specifically the economics (and culture) of the local population. Whether it's the Bengal Tigers of India, Haiti's self-inflicted Apocalypso, concepts like valuing eco-services, or other kinds of Granola Conservative concerns, the common theme is clear: local incentives matter - and so does governance.

Which is why this attempt is pleasing, though also anxiety-provoking:

read the rest! »

Chavez revives deicide libel

I imagine this'll probably get noted by our own HateWatch, but am I the only one who was more than a little freaked to learn that Hugo Chavez seems to have revived the deicide libel?

In a televised Christmas Eve speech, Chavez, a left-winger and a former soldier, said that "minorities, descendants of those who crucified Christ ... have grabbed all the wealth of the world for themselves."

There aren't any further excerpts from the speech, but judging from that one I'm guessing that it went downhill from there. I haven't blogged hardly at all about Chavez, but based on what I have seen of the situation he's getting better and better at his Fidel impression as he systematically dismantles the democratic machinery of Venezuela and is intending to spread his more or less communist ideology throughout Latin America that so far he seems to be succeeding. Both the US News and World Report story from awhile back documenting his support for FARC combined with an encounter I had with Venezuelan dissidents seeking American support last summer while I was in DC was more than enough to convince me that the man was bad news apart from whatever sick beliefs he has about some international Jewish conspiracy.

The problem, of course, is that Chavez isn't too likely to pay for these remarks because he has all the right enemies. Because of alleged CIA involvement in the brief 2002 attempt to depose him, many of his Western and Latin American admirers believe nothing less than that he can do no wrong and that his anti-Western and anti-American attitudes are more or less a good thing, at least as long as he's against the Bush administration. For some people, I guess, that means his heart's in the right place.

Trade, not Aid: Critical CAFTA Vote this Week

From time to time I've been posting articles about Latin America, specifically Hugo Chavez in Venezuela of late. The region is an important one globally, our closest geographic neighbors after Canada and one that I think potentially poses either great opportunities or, as I fear, serious security and other challenges in the coming decades.

The countries of Latin America have had varied histories, but most have experienced a lot of poverty and political repression, some of which the U.S. has turned a blind eye to -- or quietly supported. Now these countries are linking into the global economic, trade and political networks that so characterize our times. The question is, WHICH networks will they join, and to what end?

If we are wise and lucky, it will be the Central American and Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement. Unfortunately, many Senators (primarily Democrats) oppose CAFTA and it is in danger of not being approved here. U.S. failure to approve this agreement will do more than sabotage a fledgling trade pact: it may well doom our relationships with Latin America permanently, as Andres Oppenheimer notes. And that will do more than create tensions or foster continued economic and political problems for Central America. (h/t Publius Pundit)

It just might mean that those countries actively align with China, harbor Islamacist and other terror groups and pose a serious security threat to the U.S. and allied nations.

read the rest! »

The Dead Can Vote in Venezuela

Or so it would seem.

The problem's been around for a while now, but given the actions of Hugo Chavez (creating and staffing large numbers of judgeships, inviting 10,000 armed Cuban soldiers into the country, and more) this does leave one with less than full confidence in the upcoming civic elections there.

The presence of long-dead voters on the electoral rolls gives an added dimension to Chavez' statement that socialism would bring Heaven on Earth to Venezuela ....

UPDATE: Gateway Pundit has photos and accounts of the most recent anti-Chavez protests. Just a few weeks ago, thousands also protested the killing of several students by his security forces. Events in Venezuela are moving fast.

UPDATE: While I've been keeping track of Chavez' weapons purchases, somehow I missed the Russian submarines and maritime strike fighters.

Chavez Begins Nationalization of Firms

Hello to all from sunny Hawaii. It's good to finally have a week away from work, but it was hard to be without online access for the last 9 days!

Unfortunately, not all that I missed is good news. For instance, Hugo Chavez has begun nationalizing Veneuelan firms. Such policies seldom benefit the poor -- but they are likely to bolster both his personal power and the cult of personality he is cultivating.

Scandal Taking a Toll in Brazil - and Why We Should Care

Earlier today I mentioned the bribes scandal that is rocking Brazil. Here's a closer look at the details - and what it might mean for Brazil's future.

First, the basics.

A widening political-corruption scandal in Brazil is paralyzing the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, frustrating his aspiration of leadership abroad and casting a cloud over his prospects for re-election next year. Mr. da Silva, a former union leader and Brazil's first working-class president, has been hit hard by a congressional probe into whether an operative for the governing Workers' Party dispensed suitcases of cash to congressmen at hotels. His chief of staff and the No. 2 and No. 3 officials in his party have been forced to resign as a result of the alleged vote-buying scheme.

Okay, dirty politics based on bribes. But what does that have to do with us? Why should we care?

The WSJ suggests we should care plenty. [Subscription required - Read the rest at Random Probabilities...]

More Aggressive Moves by Chavez to Consolidate Power

Earlier today I wrote

Hence these posts about Hugo Chavez today, while we all respond as well to Islamacist attacks in London. (cross-posted to Random Probabilities)

While exporting and creating instability in Latin American neighbors, Hugo Chavez is busy consolidating legal and extra-legal power in Venezuela.

First, you should know a little about a courageous woman named Maria Corina Machado and her nonprofit group Sumate. From Investors Daily:

read the rest! »

The Growing Chaos to our South

My thoughts and prayers are with the people of London this past day. The war on terror is a real war: long, painful, expensive, uncertain. Islamacist terror is a very real threat to civilization, as Tony Blair and the other G8 leaders affirmed yesterday.

But that is not the ONLY threat to geopolitical and economic stability in our time. It's important that we keep our eye on emerging events elsewhere as well. For example, a while back we took a look at recent arms purchases by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez from Spain, Russia and Brazil, as well as his intent to train and arm a paramilitary force loyal only to him. It's time to take a look at events in that country since April. The trend isn't reassuring.

Today's Financial Times reports that Chavez intends to seize over $5 billion, or 1/6 of the foreign currency and other reserves, of the central bank and divert them to ... well, officially to fund social programs. In practice, this means short-term offsets for the chronic deficits his government has run despite very high prices in the oil markets over the last few years.

It also means two more insidious things. First, this move will undercut confidence in the Venezuelan national bank and its currency, the bolivar. And second, it is highly unlikely that this will be the last expropriation.

The move is not justified by true need.

Critics say other state entities, such as state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela and Bandes, a state development bank, have about $10bn in overseas accounts, and the government should use some of that money instead of the bank's international reserves.

However, the last thing Chavez wants is either to withdraw funds he controls outside of the country or to do so in a venue where there might be some visibility into his use of the monies. Which gets us to the second story of interest regarding Venezuela. But first, let's look a little closer at this move.

read the rest! »

Bye-Bye Bolivia, Take 2

Back on May 26/05, Dr. Jack Wheeler of To The Point News did a time-delayed Guest Blog called Bye-Bye Bolivia. Our maps of Bolivia, he said, may be about to become obsolete:

It looks like Dr. Wheeler was right on the money with this one:

• Bart Hall adds some additional background from personal experience in Bolivia as an agricultural development worker.

• Austin Bay has UPDATED: Bolivia in a dangerous spiral - including news reports and even an email from a friend on the scene.

• Publius Pundit has his Bolivia archive, including one roundup entitled, simply, "Rumours of War".

• As The Top Of The World Turns has a translation of Augusto Nunes' account in Rio de Janeiro's Jornal do Brasil, one of Brasil's major papers. It adds some additional history and some local regional perspective - the signs do not look good for Bolivia.

• Kim du Toit offers a fascinating glimpse in an unlikely place: Miss Bolivia. Go read to get a feel for how different Santa Cruz considers itself to be - oh, and he has pictures...

THIS is a Gulag

Irene Khan, Secretary General of Amnesty International has characterized the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay as “the gulag of our times”, demonstrating her utter lack of perspective or knowledge of history. Anne Applebaum, the author of GULAG: a History, neatly places the Soviet Gulag into the proper historical context (excerpted from a PBS interview and cleaned it up for readability):

It belongs in the context most obviously of the Holocaust, which... killed six million Jews plus many millions of other people plus the enormous destruction of the Second World War. It belongs in the context of the Chinese and Cambodian revolutions and the... famine in China and the culture revolution in China which...which killed-the...Chinese, the experience of Chinese communism is probably in the... many, many tens of millions. The gulag itself… I think my estimate is that some eighteen million people passed through the camps... of which two to three million probably died.

Nationmaster attempts to enumerate the physical toll of the Soviet Gulag system:

read the rest! »

Special Analysis: Bye-Bye Bolivia?

Winds of Change.NET's Latin America briefings have described some of the natural gas controversies in that country. Publius Pundit has done a great job covering recent unrest there (most recently, in "Roadblocks and Dynamite"). Jack Wheeler, meanwhile, explained the connection to his subscribers almost 2 months ago...

Bye-Bye Bolivia?
by Dr. Jack Wheeler
To The Point News Thursday, April 7, 2005

Dr. Jack Wheeler runs To The Point News, described as "An Oasis for Rational Conservatives." Back in April 2005, Wheeler said serious trouble was coming to Bolivia - and recent events show he was on to something. We didn't get the scoop as fast as his subscribers, but we've republished it now with permission.

This map of Bolivia may be about to become obsolete:

read the rest! »

World-Changing Science from Around the Globe

On my America West flight to California, I picked up a copy of Technology Review's April 2005 issue and found a neat set of articles about cutting-edge technology reseach in various countries: Brazil, Chile, China, Germany, the Netherlands, South Africa and the United States.

"We asked these writers to report on which emerging technologies are the most important for their nations' societies and economies, and to explain what makes these technolo­gies uniquely characteristic of their countries.... In all, our reporters identified more than two dozen emerging technologies or ideas about innovation as vital to the futures of these seven countries. But even those innovations that most directly address urgent regional needs prove to have application for the entire planet."

There's lots of neat stuff going on. Fortunately, these articles are all available online - and there are some interesting graphics measuring key global technology indicators as well.

More on What Zapatero Sold to Chavez

After the MSNBC blog roundup yesterday, a left-wing blog attacked the piece on the grounds that the Spanish government had just announced what it actually sold under the "chemical warfare" category.

While the announcement clears up some issues, it raises others. Part 1 of my answer to Left I blog is up tonight. Part 2 will follow tomorrow.

Excerpt:

You will note that Spain does not appear in this list. Which is one reason why alarm bells went off when it reported sales that fall into the category “chemical warfare agents and radioactive materials”. Sale of CW is forbidden under the Convention — and sale by a country that has not declared that it possesses CW would be of particular concern, as would “radioactive materials” without some known context for their use.

Tear gas, including CS, is not considered one of the chemical warfare agents ....

Nevertheless, the use of riot control agents in warfare is forbidden by the Convention. Why, then, did the Spanish government list the sale of CS in the category of “chemical warfare agents and radioactive materials “?

What is Zapatero Selling to Chavez?

Possibly nuclear and chemical weapons/materials, plus night-vision goggles and more.

PC Connectado Brings Internet, Linux to Brazil's Masses

Brazil's new PC Conectado plan will make Internet-connected Linux PCs affordable to poor households. Buyers will be able to pay just under $25/month for 24 months for a PC and Internet service; the Brazilian government expects up to 1,000,000 participants in the program by the end of the year. That's good news.

Obviously, this will be a big step for Linux on the desktop. Not to mention a model for many developing countries, who already beginning to look to Brazil on number of fronts. Of course, Microsoft and Brazil's opposition are trying to get them to use "Windows XP Starter Edition" for the developing world instead. Fortunately, Sérgio Amadeu, president of Brazil's National Institute of Information Technology, is uninterested in furthering the Microsoft monopoly with tax dollars. To my mind, that's good news too.

The New Anarchy: Crime and War

Phil Carter has a blog post up about The Convergence of Crime and War, with a lot of excellent links to professional papers et. al. It's a subject we've been harping about for a while here at Winds of Change.NET, though our focus is more on the fusion of crime, nation-states and terrorism than the "bottom up" evolution Carter is covering. As this LA Times article reminds us, however, we're already facing the stuff that Carter is talking about on the battlefield. Winds of Change.NET's look at this phenomenon includes this recommended set:

• Terror, Inc., Part 1
• Terror, Inc., Part 2
• The S.P.E.C.T.R.E. of Terror, Inc.

See also:

read the rest! »

More on Trade: Should Democrats Support CAFTA?

Stuart Eizenstat and David Marchick, both longtime Democrats who served in the Clinton administration, have an op-ed up in the WSJ today urging Democrats to support the Central American Free Trade Agreement.

Democrats should, however, support Cafta for two fundamental reasons: First, the agreement is deeply in our national interest and will create, not destroy, jobs. Second, if the Democratic Party wants to regain the White House and control of Congress, it has to take pro-growth, pro-jobs positions on key issues, including trade agreements.

Cafta follows the same template as the United States' free trade agreements with Australia, Singapore, Jordan, Chile, Morocco, Canada and Israel -- agreements which garnered substantial Democratic support. Cafta would also open markets to U.S. goods and services, lower tariffs, create transparent government procurement processes and adopt trade facilitation measures. In fact, exporters from Central America can already sell products in the United States at zero or low tariffs. Cafta lowers tariffs on U.S. products exported to Central America.

There's a deeper reason to build close trade ties with Central America.

read the rest! »

Mudslides and Montesquieu - the looming crisis in Venezuela

What can you tell about a country's politics from a single photo?

A lot, if the country is Venezuela and the photo is posted by Daniel in Yaracuy. If you don't read him from time to time, you should. Today's post ties together mudslides, the privileged rich and Montesquieu.

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2005-02-09

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• Colombia and Venezuela: Two hardheaded leaders butt heads, but in the end can they both just get along?

Other Topics Include: As Vicente Fox slides deeper into irrelevancy, will Mexico move to the left or return to the cruel embrace of the PRI?; Has Bolivia's President Carlos Mesa, in trying to please the population of Santa Cruz province, opened up the floodgates for other regions wanting more autonomy?; Gerard Latortue calls for elections in Haiti, but all available evidence shows that a year after Aristide, the situation has gone from bad to worse; Lula gets razzed at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre; Were you aware of the devastating floods in Guyana? Apparently the media have been ignoring it.

read the rest! »

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2005-01-11

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• A new year brings new questions, hopes and trends.I'll devote this briefing to a focus on different regions and what I think might happen in 2005. I'm starting out with US-Latin American relations.

Other Topics Include: Will Mexico's preparation for the 2006 elections show a resurgence of the PRI or will players take the stage; Will Central America remain the Bush administration's best friend in the hemisphere; Andean unrest: while Chávez consolidates his power and events in Colombia may look hopeful, Ecuador and Peru are unraveling; In the Southern Cone Argentina's bondholders want answers, but will they like what they hear? Will Chile elect its first woman president? Will Lula still keep the IMF happy?; In the Caribbean is Haiti completely hopeless and will the call for protectorate status grow louder? Can Leonel Fernandez turn the Dominican Republic around after a devastating bank scandal, crushing debt hurricanes and now malaria in Punta Cana? Castro hangs on - but for how long?

read the rest! »

Apocalypso: Haiti's Chosen Poverty

Back on Sept. 22, 2004, I wrote a post about "Valuing Eco-Services". Celeste promptly turned around on the 29th and applied its concepts to the disastrous 2004 floods in Haiti.

Now the Miami Herald chimes in with Haiti: A ravaged land more bleak by Susannah A. Nesmith. When it comes to Haiti's deforestation and the economic/ environmental devastation it has wrought, there's a lot of blame to go around: NGOs, government, even Haitians themselves. Haiti's poverty isn't a conspiracy from abroad, it's the product of choices. If those choices don't start changing, neither will Haiti's fate.

Belmont Club, discussing similar issues in the Philippines, called it "Death By Insanity" - and the term is apropos. Dysfunctional cultures, corrupt governments, and (worst of all) a lack of understanding of economics or the importance of property rights add up to a toll of doom across the 3rd world. Haiti is just one example, albeit a very illustrative one. So let's take a closer look:

• International NGOs - Gypsies in the Palace
• Success Stories - You Can Shake the Hand of the Mango Man...
• Governance & Culture - Down to Rock Bottom Again
• Banana Republics
• Conclusion - Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes

read the rest! »

Special Analysis: A Window Into al-Qaeda

Back during the Cold War, the rule with intelligence was, "If it's sensational, don't believe it." Of course, back then we were fighting something resembling a rational enemy, whereas these days it seems like we're reliving the plots of far too many bad novels. I've got half a mind to recommend that they open up US intelligence to all of these comic book geeks who keep track of every detail of their favorite characters online. They, at least, could remember all of these damned names.

- Former senior US intelligence official in conversation to me, circa July 2004

As some of you already know, last weekend I was at a counter-terrorism conference in New York City at the behest of my patrons, who were nice enough to fly me out there and for the purposes of me posting on the Internet would prefer to remain anonymous, if for nothing else than so they can plausibly deny everything they say ;) I've also been finishing finals and watching the extended edition of The Return of the King, so I apologize in advance for the number of Tolkien references that are likely to be used here.

The conference's attendees included a wide variety of law enforcement, intelligence, military or former military, and think tank types from pretty much across the ideological spectrum and I learned a great deal both from the presentations and in conversation. None of the information that was shared at the conference was classified or anything like that, and I have my own doubts (and in some cases extreme disagreement) about some of what was said. Still, I figure that this may all be valuable to you, perhaps because it runs against some of what I have argued.

• Al-Qaeda Command & Control
• Al-Qaeda Training Facilities & Infrastructure
• Al-Qaeda in General
• Iraq and al-Qaeda
• Iran & al-Qaeda

read the rest! »

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-12-08

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• The situation in Haiti continues to unravel. MINUSTAH, the UN peacekeeping force led by Brazil is seriously understaffed with a little more than half of the 8,000 peacekeeper force in place. According to this report, the police and peacekeepers have ceded large sections of the largest cities to gangs led by different political factions; some pro-Arisitide, some anti-Aristide. Although the UN Security Council voted unanimously to extend the peacekeepers mandate until June 1 of next year, it certainly appears that it will need to be extended even further.

Other Topics Include: Repercussions of the car-bomb murder of a Venezuelan prosecutor; the latest in Colombia; Allegations of violent homophobia in Jamaica; A new drug war and vigalantism looming in Mexico?; Is Lula's plan for Brazil's economy working?; Castro releases dissidents he should never have imprisoned to begin with.

read the rest! »

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-11-09

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPICS

• Election results wrap-up - but it's from the other America. A few off-year election results have taken place, municipal run-offs in Brazil have been finalized and Uruguay elects a new president. More inside...

• One of my ongoing goals in life is trying to understand Latin American cultures. Being married to a Latina makes it challenging, sometimes nerve-wracking, but always rewarding. One of my favorite writers on Latin America is Marcela Sánchez who writes for the Washington Post. While much was made of "moral values" in the recent US election, she has a column from last week regarding the concept of moral values and the differences between North and South [registration req'd] on this subject. You may not agree with her - I don't always - but you will appreciate her thoughtfulness.

Other Topics Include: Elections reports from Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, and Uruguay; Former Costa Rican presidents dropping like flies - in a manner of speaking; Castro changes currency in Cuba; Brazil takes charge in Haiti - Washington probably won't be pleased.

read the rest! »

Mr. Diplomacy Strikes Again

Robert Tagorda (now resident in the Boston area) looks into recent reports that Kerry's remarks are inciting violence and making life difficult for the U.N. commander in Haiti.

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-10-13

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPIC

• Colombia's peace efforts: Is there a double standard in President Uribe's dealings with the different rebel/paramilitary/terrorist factions or at least a different public and private face? The US is doubling its troop commitment to Colombia; what will that mean?

Other Topics Include: A Costa Rican Secretary General of the Organization of American States resigns amidst a corruption scandal; Less then a year after Nicaragua jails a corrupt ex-president is the current president in trouble?; Is Peru's President Alejandro Toledo losing it?; Brazil's Municipal Elections are good news for Lula - with one potential catch; A possible side benefit of Augusto Pinochet's legal troubles.

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-09-22

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPIC

• Some personal observations on recent visits to Brazil and the Dominican Republic. I returned this past Saturday from sixteen days in Brazil and can attest to some good and some bad. Among the good I witnessed was a focused effort to improve literacy in Brazil as well as a creative and imaginative effort to reduce the number of smokers. Unemployment is declining bit by bit and the nation's benchmark bond has just risen to a seven-month high. More inside....

• Haiti in the Hurricane's aftermath. The Command Post has updates.

Other Topics Include: A roundup of issues and news about Central America; The final word on the legitimacy of the Chávez referendum?; Haiti could use your help. Here's how; The latest on the Pinochet hidden assets scandal.

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-08-18

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPIC

• Venezuela's referendum. Hugo Chávez wins big, but what will the future hold? More inside...

Other Topics Include: Leonel Fernandez takes over as President of the Dominican Republic again and his work is cut out for him; Colombian paramilitary terrorists visit Colombia's Congress and get a negative reception, including from the US Ambassador; Who's Number One? Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo places first in a contest no one would want to win; Castro celebrates his 78th birthday and some bloggers celebrate Cuba while excoriating Fidel.

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Narcocainia, South America

Back in September of 2002, I wrote the Terror, Inc. series of articles here on Winds of Change.NET. Part 2 took an especially close look at Colombia's FARC narco-guerillas as a likely model for future terrorist organizations, and other posts and comments have bandied about the idea that there is effectively an unrecognized narco-state in South America.

Imagine my surprise, therefore, to find this thesis strongly confirmed in the pages of... National Geographic magazine. Cocaine Country in the July 2004 issue describes a land with its own economy and institutions, where raw coca is the main unit of everyday currency. Predictably, FARC's professsed Marxism doesn't stop them from selling the farmers' raw product at a 1,000x markup.

The online version is only a 1-page excerpt (plus photos and field notes), and the entire article is worth reading in your local library.

Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-07-20

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPIC

• Bolivia's natural gas referendum passes, nationalizing its reserves and strengthening President Mesa's hand. What it will mean for the future of Bolivia's control over its vast reserves remains to be seen. More inside...

Other Topics Include: How do you make millions as commander of the armed forces in Latin America's most transparent economy? Ask Augusto Pinochet; Brazil's economy is looking up in several areas, but unemployment and stagnant wages remain stubborn. Will this come back to haunt Lula's party in the state and municipal elections in October and November?; Will former Mexican President Luis Echevarria face justice for the murder of twenty-six student protestors thirty-three years ago; Argentinians remember a tragic anniversary and President Kirchner renews a commitment for justice. Will it succeed?; A film recommendation that shows Colombians in a way that Hollywood never does.

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-06-23

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too. This Regional Briefing focuses on Latin America, courtesy of Randy Paul.

TOP TOPIC

• The referendum is on in Venezuela, but El Presidente Chávez is stacking the deck - and the courts.

Other Topics Include: More on Venezuela; Referendum question; Chavez & Pinochet - peas in a pod; Colombia's FARC & AUC violence continues; Movement toward peace from the other leftist guerillas in the ELN; Worrisome vigilante violence in Bolivia; Brazil's WTO victory on cotton subsidies is confirmed; OAS member nations agree to address corruption; Augusto Pinochet opens his mouth. Will he pay the consequences?

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Randinho's Latin America Briefing: 2004-05