We've talked before about China's race into the oil market as one of 12 under-rated global trends.
There's an interesting article in The Economist about the effects China's economy is already having on the world, from shipping costs to commodity prices. It also asks an important question: what if the Chinese economy sputters, or experiences a "hard landing"? (Hat Tip: Real Clear Politics)
While I believe China's system creates real and significant obstacles to growth over the long term, the fact that people are asking these questions and writing articles like this is an early indicator of some shifts that are worth paying attention to.
There are those that believe that the Chinese banking system is in a mess, and that one day soon there will be a massive adjustment to deal with all the bad loans made for political, rather than profit-maximizing, reasons.
In the long run, it really doesn't matter. If China is determined to join the world market or get involved in International affairs, it has the manpower to become the world's superpower. If there is a crash, that would only be a short term impediment. If the economy is only a third the size of what is reported, that is just a matter of degrees. The final outcome is that China has the resources to become the world's next superpower, and that is not something to be underestimated.
There is an interesting article on Chinese car clones that shows pretty clearly that China will not have to reinvent the wheel. Nor does it appear that China is too worried about playing by Western rules as it modernizes. That is not to say we won't see improvements in human rights, justice, etc., only that it will be at China's pace and on China's terms for China's benefit.