with the president's son repeating once more his opposition to the inheritance of power... Younger NDP members refer to him as a republican heir-apparent, who will put himself forward at elections at the right moment, and then be embraced by the electorate.

Is this a joke?

Look, there's some good stuff going on in some places, but Gamal Mubarak being maneuvered to take Daddy's place isn't one of them. The whole thing is a transparent sham, and nobody in Egypt is being fooled. Thomas Barnett calls him "the next idiot son," and rightly so. I'm far more enthused about developments like the rise of the Tomorrow Party. When they're allowed to compete fair and square, I'll believe Egypt is serious about liberal reform.

"Gamal... consolidated his image as being at the vanguard of the NDP's new, liberal -- at least economically -- way of thinking

:-) Liberal economically -- I like that. Meaining he'll deal with our corporations and sell us many units of slave labour he happens to be in control of; just like the Chinese. Yet, Castro is evil (if you don't believe me, wait till Juan explains why.)

"Egypt badly needs economic reform - but a genuine, democratic election would also be a good move for Gamal, if and when he steps into his father's shoes."
He surely will, but arent' we ahead of ourselves here? I mean "a genuine, democratic election" has nothing to do with being liberal economically. In fact, he may not be elected in such an election. In Egypt, a "genuine, democratic election" will probably result in a theocracy Iranian style. But wait! Such a thing can be liberal -- economically -- too; again, just like in China. Hmmm.... I don't know what to think. I guess any change is better than no change. Or is it?

Praktike, on Thomas Barnett: I think he's an idiot himself. First, you'd expect the guy who makes public pronouncements on an issue to be familiar with the issue, and then he'd know that it's "Mubarak", not "Mubarek". Furthermore, he offers no acceptable explanation why he thinks M's son is an idiot (that he's a prominent man's son and had it easier than the rest is correct but mostly irrelevant; he can be a genius even though he didn't have to " claw his way to the top.") Finally, he says "Yes, I see reform coming to the Middle East if the U.S. would only pull out of Iraq...". Like you say, "is this a joke?"

And one more thing -- whether Mubarak ruled via emergency decrees or not, i.e. regardless of his democratic credentials, he's better than some Islamic Jihad, the likely alternative. Mubarak's predecessor was assassinated by these very people -- and not for being insufficiently democratic or economically liberal. I don't know what to make of all of this, quite honestly.

The "joke" is the pretense that Gamal isn't being installed by his father. As for liberalism, good questions. You should read my Tacitus.org diary entry on this very subject!

The dynastic tendencies brewing in Egypt are cause for concern.

Ultimately, it will be interesting to see what path Gamal Mubarak chooses to take. Khadafy's son was instrumental in Libya's recent turnabout, so there's a possibility of a positive political outcome too if Mubarak The Younger rejects the role appointed for him. Meanwhile, a healthy dose of economic liberalization and a large helping of Hernando DeSoto would be a definite improvement.

Chrenkoff isn't necessarily disagreeing with you either, praktike... he says:

"Egypt badly needs economic reform - but a genuine, democratic election would also be a good move for Gamal, if and when he steps into his father's shoes."

Finally, we should put up an irtonclad rule that debates about the spelling of Arabic words or names in English are out of bounds. All are equally "wrong", and as long as they're phonestic it's fine.

Praktike has a good post on the difference between "liberal" and "democratic", over at Praktike's Place.

Hint - liberalism is more important than democracy.

(Joe, u may want to delete a couple of the duplicates)

Praktike, "The "joke" is the pretense that Gamal isn't being installed by his father." -- yes, I understood that, but what did you like about this Barnett guy? You think he makes sense? I'm gonna go and read your article now (I have to say, that all intermittent acrimony aside, this is a very informative blog, thanks to Joe and the rest of founders and participants here.)

Having said that: Joe, was your comment about the spelling of Arabic names occasioned by the "Mubarak" vs "Mubarek" issue I brought up or something else?

Barnett--I like his book, and I generally like his instincts. That post wasn't his most, er, tightly argued, but I think the point he was trying to make is this: Mubarak was a dolt, and it isn't an auspicious sign that he's installing his son. He's heard all this talk before, and he wants to see action. The parting shot about Iraq was aimed at people like me, who think Egypt rather than Iraq was the logical place to start the bellows of change in the Middle East.

Slightly tighter version of my post over at Tacitus.

Forgot a couple things--Warum, Joe is winking at me there, I think, for my Cicero-directed snark t'other day regarding the transliteration of the Iraqi prime minister's name.

And regarding DeSoto, the challenge for Egypt is that the median plot size of fellahin is so small that it's difficult for them to borrow any money from it. Some people argue, therefore, that DeSoto's argument isn't nearly as relevant as it was for, say, Peru. At some point, I'll be blogging about this issue, once I feel more confident I know what I'm talking about.

Arthur, thank-you for all your posts! You always give us hope. :)
Here is a small something hopeful I saw, about the changing role of women in the ME.
May the Horse Be With You

Praktike, I look forward to the bit about the fellahin. And your Tactitus pointer is good. One to be blogged, along with the Gerecht article.

Warum, the Arabic spelling thing was for you, and for Praktike. But I wanted to get it out there for everyone. Just look at Libya's leader, and you know it's timeto give up on spelling arguments over Arabic names.

Joe,
" Just look at Libya's leader, and you know it's timeto give up on spelling arguments over Arabic names." -- yes, thanks, I just wanted to make sure before saying anything. I wouldn't carp about "Mubarek" here if it were just a typo, or the only thing that was wrong in Barnett's article. But it was not, and this little nuance just, sorta, cohered nicely with the rest of bs there. Also, to be totally pedantic, unlike Qaddafi/Gadhafy/Khaddafey and what not, "Mubarak" is the only spelling I've ever seen in print. How knowledgeable is the guy commenting on Egypt if he consistently misspells the name or the top guy there, who, unlike in, say, Italy, has been a fixture of their political landscape during the last quarter century? Kinda like a doctor not knowing how to spell "penicillin", no? :-) Anyway, the hell with it.

Praktike, thanks for the link, that was a good article -- and a bunch of curious links there too. I think you're totally correct in what you say there, but at the same time, you may be overanalyzing Beinart's article. He, it seems, only points to the inconsistency in Bush's ideology -- which is correct.

Of course, more or less everyone is liable to that disconnect, not only Bush. There are foundational myths and then there's reality, and so any politician, not being free to ignore any of the two, has to navigate the threacherous waters beween Scylla of public approbation and Charybdis of practical efficacy, so to speak. And this, of course, will continue to provide many opportunities to bite him in the ass over ideological inconsistencies.

At first when I heard Gamal will inherit his fathers presidency I thought of Syria. I think it is despicable what somebody so power hungry who has stayed in power for I think 20 years who should go retire to Paris whith the millions they have and enjoy life. I think it is time for a change NEW BLOOD!!!!!! I think Gamal would be a great influence in Egyptian politics if his father would have stepped down 10 years ago. But as you see in the middle east their are kings and dictators and I don't want Egypt to turn into another Syria.