Columbia Down

The Space Shuttle Columbia broke up at mach 18 and 200,000 feet over north central Texas at ~ 8:00 AM CST this morning.

There is virtually no hope that any of the seven person crew, including Israeli's first astronaut, have survived.

Early reports from local Texas news stations report debris impact near Palestine, Texas.

NASA is advising locals to stay away from the debris due to the extremely toxic, poisonous and flamable nature of the Hydrazine thruster fuel.

Update:

NASA has reported "shuttle debris sighted in north and central Texas" and they have lowered the flag to half staff at their facilities.

There will be a NASA news conference at 10:30 AM CST.

President Bush is returning from Camp David to the White House by motorcade due to weather keeping Marine One grounded.

Update 2:

Local houston weather radar (channel 11 KHOU) replays are showing the Columbia's debris trail extending over south east Texas. Since the radar picks up only small particles, the only conclusion is that the Columbia has mostly vaporized. We may not have any bodies to bury.

Update 3:

There are three crew remaining on the international space station. They have a Soyuz attached and there is a Progress resupply tanker that has just been launched. They are in no danger.

Update 4 -- 10:28AM CST:

There are now multiple reports of debris from small Texas communities north of Houston. They are talking about small pieces of aluminium, ceramic tiles etc. Nothing that is large or heavy. This follows as the larger heavier pieces will follow a ballistic trajectory down range. Louisianna will be the likely landing place for those larger pieces.

Tyler, Lufkin, Jasper, Corsicana, and Nacogdoches, Texas are all reporting debris.

There is also a report of an apartment complex in Plano, Texas is burning from apparent shuttle debris impact. Local fire fighters are on the job and are laying foam on it.

Update 5 -- 11:01 AM CST

NBC reports FEMA has been designated as the lead Federal agency for the clean up of Shuttle debris. The US Military's Northern Command has been tapped to provide support for the effort.

Update 6 -- 11:25 AM CST

The local Houston TV stations are now playing call ins from eye witnesses and people who have found debris.

There are reports (from NBC at the Pentagon) that a US Military defense support program satellite spotted a "heat spike" from the shuttle.

Dallas TV stations (KTTV via my local Houston stations) are showing helicopter views of burning fields that have shuttle debris.

The Houston Channel 13 station just had a call in from someone who has Shuttle debris hit his house!

Rural Texas emergency management and law enforcement numbers are jammed with calls. People are calling houston TV stations via cell phones to get information on debris out to the public.

Update 7 -- 11:35am CST

Local Texans are waking up, turning on their news and calling anyone and everyone. Local emergency services lines and now some of the media lines are jammed.

Anyone on the blogosphere who reads this, please post on your sites the usual disaster warnings to stay off the phone lines unless you are involved in a emergency so vital communications can get through.

Update 8 -- 11:45 AM CST

Here is the NASA statement on the disaster:

A Space Shuttle contingency has been declared in Mission Control, Houston, as a result of the loss of communication with the Space Shuttle Columbia at approximately 9 a.m. EST Saturday as it descended toward a landing at the Kennedy Space Center, Fla. It was scheduled to touchdown at 9:16 a.m. EST.

Communication and tracking of the shuttle was lost at 9 a.m. EST at an altitude of about 203,000 feet in the area above north central Texas. At the time communications were lost. The shuttle was traveling approximately 12,500 miles per hour (Mach 18). No communication and tracking information were received in Mission Control after that time.

Search and rescue teams in the Dallas-Fort Worth and in portions of East Texas have been alerted. Any debris that is located in the area that may be related to the Space Shuttle contingency should be avoided and may be hazardous as a result of toxic propellants used aboard the shuttle. The location of any possible debris should immediately be reported to local authorities.

Flight controllers in Mission Control have secured all information, notes and data pertinent to today's entry and landing by Space Shuttle Columbia and continue to methodically proceed through contingency plans.

More information will be released as it becomes available.

The Houston media is reporting that NASA is in "Media lockdown" with reporters being put in waiting rooms with no contact with anyone but NASA P.R. officials.
The NASA news conference by Administrator Sean O'Keefe is planned for 1 p.m. EST. But local reporters say there may be a statement from President Bush first.

Hat tip to spaceflightnow.com

Update 9 -- 12:03 PM CST

Raw home video from all over south east Texas is now showing up on the local Houston TV stations. One video from Nacogdoches, Texas shows the nozzle from a Shuttle OMS thruster sitting on a road.

Local Texas National Guardsmen have reported in and are providing security in many areas for Shuttle debris. No one in the environmental HazMat suits have been shown on any of the video I have seen yet.

We will find out in a couple of days, when people start dying, whether any of these pieces have the toxic rocket fuel residue on them.

There is also an unconfirmed report of human remains with shuttle debris in Jasper Texas.

Update 10 -- 11:20 AM CST

The latest unconfirmed reports are that the "possible human remains" are in San Augustine, Texas. These could be astronaut remains, some poor unfortunate murder victim or just called in pranks.

Update 11 -- 12:53 PM CST

The O'Keefe news conference is over. They restated the obvious. The crew is almost certainly dead. There will be a technical briefing at 3:00 pm. FEMA is the point agency for the clean up. The Department of Homeland Security is getting its first work out with this disaster trying to work with emergency 1st responders in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas.

We have confirmation from Texas DPS of Shuttle related human remains in San Augustine. "Two body parts were found." There was no further elaboration.

Update 12 -- 1:14 PM CST

Bush made it official in his address to the nation. The Columbia crew is dead.

There are reports over on the Free Republic that MSNBC is playing the last communications from the Columbia. Apparently there was a 57% bank to the left. The tire pressure sensor went off and then you hear the sounds of the break up.

Update 13 -- 1:37 PM CST

The recovery efforts by the Federal government now involved helicopters from Ft. Hood and various Texas National Guard aviation units seconded to FEMA. Many are now staging through Ellington Field in the Houston area to conduct grid searches of the Columbia debris field.

Local Houston TV stations are showing many Texas locals rubber necking the Columbia debris. There are also now showing human interest interviews of people in the Clear Lake area surrounding the Johnson Space Center. Flowers and notes of condolence are being laid at the gate of JSC. Businesses are putting out messages of condolence on their signs.

I am reminded of the memorial that sprang up in the field in Pennsylvania around the Flight 94 impact site.

Update 14 -- 2:25 PM CST

There is conformation of Shuttle associated human body parts in Jasper, Texas as well. There are going to be closed casket funerals.

Local Houston TV stations are reporting a California astronomer saying that the Shuttle Columbia was trailing debris, and there were flashes of light, as it passed over head. This would be consistent with the Shuttle shedding TPS tiles during reentry.

Update 15 -- 3:02 PM CST

I'm listening to the NASA news conference right now. Numerous heat sensors in the wing started dying at 7:53 AM with no heat temperture associated with the failure. (In so many words, it was as if the wires to the sensors were cut.) Then the langing gear tire pressure sensor went off at 7:58 AM. The crew was asked about it from ground control. The crew reponded and was cut off in mid word. Telemetry then indicated a 57 degree bank and sounds of static similar to the break up of Challenger were heard. Then nothing.

To my ear, it sounds like the techical description given is consistent with a TPS failure on the left wing.

The bank was caused when the wing landing gear tire overheated in the wing and exploded. This destroyed the structural integrity of the left wing. The Columbia then went into a fatal roll and broke up in flight.

The Q&A is going on, but I think we are not going to get much more form this. TV and Newspaper reporters are too technically ignorant to ask relevant questions.

Update 16 -- 3:18 PM CST

One of the reporters surprised me. NASA was asked about the CalTech astronomer report I mentioned earlier. This ellicited a response that the Columbia was going through "maximum thermal load" at the point telemetry was lost.

I won't call this a "smoking gun" for the TPS failure theory, but it is very suggestive.

Update 17 -- 3:37 PM CST

Here is an AP report on the Shuttle investigation and Federal recovery efforts.

Here is an AP report on the CalTech astronomer mentioned earlier.

Here is a report on possible failure modes.

Update 18 -- 3:54 PM CST

The local Houston TV reporters are now saying that the 57 degree bank was one of a series done to slow down the Shuttle during reentry. So this was normal and was not caused by the TPS failure. However, by putting the left wing into maximum thermal load, it may have caused it.

Peggy Noonan has better words than I do about this disaster.

Update 19 -- 4:30 PM CST

This is the wrap up.

We had a Mach 20.9 break up of a Shuttle over a moderately populated area of South Central Texas. The total death count on the ground as of this time is zero.

While there is property damage, it is less than that caused by a single line of heavy thunderstorms or a single tornado. The Commerce Department and FAA regulations on the safety and insurance requirements of commerical space operations are going to have to be revised in light of this "flaming datum."

While much is going to be said about the need for more Shuttles or a replacement for the Shuttle fleet. We already have a manned space transportation back up. It is called the Soyuz. The Cold War is over and the Russians will sell America as any as we are willing to buy.

If we want "assured human access to space" that is for American national security. Then that calls for a small, reusable, high flight rate military space plane and a seperate military space service to use it. The USAF has made clear that it would rob money from a military space plane to fund the F/A-22 and you can't launch a space plane from a Nimitz class carrier.

If you want assured civilian human access to space, then putting out launch service bid to private launch service providers is the way to go. Lock-Mart or Boeing are fully capable of putting crewed capsules or space planes on their Atlas and Delta rockets respectively. Orbital Sciences has made similar proposals for NASA's orbital rescue vehicle.

Whatever we do, we need to retire the huge standing army associated with the NASA shuttle. We can no longer afford to allow NASA to have a monopoly on manned space flight. NASA is a Cold War Space Agency. The Cold War is over and the centralized government bureaucracy paradigm has been shown to be a under performing failure.

It is time to demobilize NASA and move on to opening the space frontier.

There are other government entities that can do the job of exploration, the military for one, National Science Foundation for another, and universities for yet another. And the private sector awaits if the regulatory and tax environment can be made attractive enough. It is time that we used them all in the traditions of late 19th and early 20th century America.

Go check out these links:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2003-02-01-space-shuttle_x.htm

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/833930/posts

http://www.khou.com/

The blogfather is on the job:

http://www.instapundit.com/archives/007196.php#007196

Rand Simberg is also on the job:

http://www.interglobal.org/weblog/archives/002063.html#002063

NOAA's weather radar image of the Columbia break up

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kshv.shtml

KHOU has pictures of the Shuttle Debris on its web site here (registration is required):

http://www.khou.com/topstories/khou030201_ds_ShuttleDebris.10bac482.html

This is a list of live video streams from the Free Republic:

BBC World: http://202.174.129.100/bbc300k

BBC News 24: http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsa/n5ctrl/live/now2.ram

CTV NewsNet: http://ctvbroadcast.ctv.ca/ctvlivehigh.asf

WFAA/Dallas (ABC): http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll?id=5882

KHOU/Houston (CBS): http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll?id=206531

CNN: http://www.itcom.itd.umich.edu/streaming/ram/avs03.ram

FOX News Channel: http://umtv-live.rs.itd.umich.edu/itcom/avs01.ram

NBC; NASA TV; MSNBC; KXAS/Dallas: http://www.msnbc.com/m/lv/default.asp?0cv=CA01

WKMG/Orlando-Daytona Beach: http://mfile.akamai.com/7882/live/reflector:23942.ram

WSVN/Miami: http://web2.wsvn.com/video/wsvn_broadband.asx

CNN/Newsnet - Raw Video (IBSYS News Sites): http://mfile.akamai.com/7882/live/reflector:23961.ram

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