Winds of Change.NET: Conspiracy & Response

August 27, 2003

Conspiracy & Response

by Tarek Heggy at August 27, 2003 6:27 AM

Winds of Change.NET Cairo correspondent Tarek Heggy is back again!

This time, he takes on a topic we've also written about extensively on Winds of Change.NET: Conspiracy theories (Conspriacy and Truth Week | Conspiracies and Memetic Epidemics | Why Bad Beliefs Won't Die). More to the point, Tarek Heggy writes about Arab and Egyptian culture's fondness for them. He has an... unusual response. I like it.

Let's Assume it's a Conspiracy!
by Tarek Heggy

There are many in our part of the world who subscribe wholeheartedly to the conspiracy theory, firmly convinced that sinister forces are busy hatching plots against them. United in their belief, they differ only as to the motives of the conspirators. Some see them as motivated by an atavistic hatred for Muslims in general and Arabs in particular, others by a fear that an Arab awakening represents a danger that must be averted at all costs. Then are those who attribute the conspiracy to Jewish machinations. Finally, there are those who believe it is part of a grand design for the economic exploitation of the region.

The conspiracy theory has always intrigued me, and I have written frequently, in both Arabic and English, about the theory, those who subscribe to it, their logic and the implications of allowing their worldview to dominate our thinking. The reason I am revisiting the subject here is neither in the aim of supporting those who deny the existence of a conspiracy against us, nor of refuting the arguments of those who are convinced we are the targets of a conspiracy. Rather, it is to try and go beyond the question at the heart of what has become a sterile and demobilizing debate (is there a conspiracy against us?) to another question: assuming we are in fact pawns in a grand design orchestrated by others, is there anything we can do other than lament the fact, which so many seem to think is the only course open to us?

In fact, our reaction to the conspiracy � assuming it exists � can proceed according to one of several scenarios.

The first scenario, which is embodied in the reaction of the majority of our conspiracy theorists, is to rant against the conspirators and speechify about how much they hate and envy us. This becomes an occasion to enumerate the qualities that make us an object of envy. I call this the "declamatory scenario."

Then there is the "confrontation scenario," in which the self-perceived 'victims' of a conspiracy adopt a confrontational stance towards the 'conspirators.'

Finally, there is what I have chosen to call the "Asian scenario." I decided on this appellation following a discussion I had with a prominent Japanese personality, who asked me why our part of the world was so obsessed with conspiracies and conspirators, in contrast with East and Southeast Asia where, he said, "despite the atomic bombs dropped by the West on our cities, we did not waste our time talking of conspiracies. Instead of indulging in this futile exercise, we directed our attention at building ourselves up internally in all spheres, economic, political, social, educational and cultural. We opted for action rather than words, because we realized the declamatory scenario would get us nowhere: it would neither benefit us nor hurt others. As to the confrontational scenario, setting ourselves on a collision course with the West would have exacted a heavy price, and we would have ended up squandering our time, assets, resources and energy striving for the impossible."

The Asian scenario, which eschews words in favour of action, was adopted by China in another, very different, matter. Instead of getting bogged down in an endless debate over the respective merits of a socialist command economy based on centralized planning versus a market economy, China quietly pressed ahead with its own version of the Asian scenario, keeping most of its provinces under the old system while allowing a few to follow a market economy. After what had started out as a limited experiment proved successful, China gradually expanded its scope, moving smoothly from the old economic system to the new without tearing society apart by involving it in a polarizing and endless national debate which would have set the pro- and anti-change camps at each other's throats and sapped the national will to move forward.

Too much talk and no action can only erode society's resolve and, as the old adage goes, "It is a nation's resolve that can revive it."

My interlocutor went on: "Look at China, which is theoretically more dangerous for the West (approximately a thousand times more dangerous) than you are. And yet it avoided getting bogged down in useless talk of conspiracies and focussed on the process of building itself up internally. I believe that Russia and India, like China, also represent a greater threat to the West than the Arabs do, and yet neither of them got caught up in a war of words against conspiracies and conspirators. Which tends to prove that you Arabs are using this talk of conspiracy for other reasons, maybe an inability to deal with what is essentially a conflict situation as active participants bent on affecting the outcome to their advantage, which entails building a strong, healthy, stable and thriving internal environment."

I believe that talk of conspiracy can be as demobilizing for a society as talk of the clash of civilizations.

Even if we assume, for the sake of argument, that we are the targets of a conspiracy, we should ask ourselves what positive action we can take to foil the designs of the conspirators. Loudly bewailing our fate while waiting passively for whatever they decide to throw at us hardly qualifies as positive action. At best, the declamatory scenario is the line of least resistance, a static scenario that locks us into a world of fiery language and prevents us from taking control of our destiny. And if we opt for the confrontational scenario, we must be ready to pay a heavy price in terms of our financial, economic, natural and human resources.

In the final analysis, then, it is only by adopting the Asian scenario based on building a strong internal front in all fields, political, economic, social, educational and cultural, that we can hope to achieve our aim of serving this nation and ensuring a better future for coming generations. The point I am trying to make can best be summed up in the words of a character in one of Shakespeare's plays (I do not recall which), that I will paraphrase here. When asked by another character what was the source of England's pride, he attributed it to its ability to achieve success. It is an answer that can be used against both the declamatory and confrontational scenarios. The former, in which words take the place of deeds, is incapable of achieving pride, while the latter, in the absence of a strong internal front, can only result in great loss.

I believe it would be easy to convince most people in our part of the world of how ineffectual the declamatory scenario is when it comes to coping with external threats. It is a scenario we have long been familiar with, and we have seen at first hand how it has consistently failed to live up to its extravagant promises. We have also seen how it has all too often led us into situations for which we were ill-prepared, with disastrous consequences.

But while most people realize that big talk has cost us dearly, and would be receptive to the idea that the declamatory scenario is no longer an option, they would be less ready to concede that the confrontational scenario too should be abandoned. In fact, there are those who would challenge my contention that the confrontational scenario can only be a losing proposition as defeatism.

This accusation is easily rebutted. Even the most fervent believers in a conspiracy theory cannot deny that our internal front is weak and friable and that all our resources must be deployed to address this problem. Nor can they deny that overcoming the problem entails a concerted effort that combines scientific knowledge, modern management techniques, a serious programme for reform and development, an educational revolution aimed at bringing Egypt's educational system into line with modern educational systems (which are based on creativity not memory tests), expanding the scope of general freedoms and allowing for wider popular participation in public affairs. And if we can easily reach agreement on this point, we should just as easily be able to agree that embarking on a confrontational scenario for which we are not prepared will cost us dearly.

Thus building a strong internal front is the first task we must set ourselves because it is the only way we can deal effectively with the outside world, whether as partners in a state of peaceful coexistence or as protagonists in a confrontational situation. Neither coexistence nor confrontation is possible unless we focus on improving our internal structural buildup.

In this connection, a useful lesson can be drawn from the experience of Mohamed Ali. As long as he confined himself to building up Egypt's internal institutions, he was not subjected to external pressure or dragged into confrontations aimed at clipping his wings. But when he shifted his attention from the internal front, when he began harbouring ambitions to transform Egypt into a great power with a role to play and interests to promote beyond its borders, he found himself facing the same fate as that of countless dedicated rulers who succumbed to the temptation to expand their sphere of influence beyond the borders of their own countries. Like boxers entering the ring before they are ready, that is, without going through a lengthy regimen of training and preparation, they were easily defeated by their stronger and better prepared opponents, who managed to inflict heavy damage, not only externally but also internally.

In conclusion, I have tried in this article to drive home the point that even if we assume, for the sake of argument, that there is a conspiracy against us, we must be aware of the dangers of opting for the declamatory or confrontational scenarios. The former serves only to paralyze society and keep it in a state of suspended animation; the latter, while feeding the psychological cravings of some, satisfying the emotional needs of others and responding to the basic instincts of many, can only deplete our resources and cause us to incur heavy losses we can ill afford.

As Shakespeare so perceptively put it, pride can only come from success. It is also useful here to recall another wise saying: There is nothing worse than allowing what is attainable to slip from our grasp while we strive for the unattainable!

For more of Tarek Heggy's writtings in English, please visit www.t-heggy-site-contents.org and for Tarek Heggy's writings in French please visit www.metransparent.com/authors/french/tarek_heggy.htm.

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Tarek Heggy: Women & Progress from Blogcritics

Excerpt: Cairo correspondent Tarek Heggy's guest column notes: "It is tragic that in this day and age, when the advanced world is concerned with knowledge, development, civil liberties and human rights, we should still be asking the shameful question: Are women...

Comments

#1 from David Sheridan at 10:52 am on Aug 27, 2003

Your piece strikes me as an excellent summary of the choices available to the Arab world. Sadly, it sounds to me that internal debate is focusing on the wrong questions. I don't know the Koran, but know that Mohammed was both a warrior and a merchant. Economic stagnation, whereby the state provides no means for the majority of Muslims to adequately provide for themselves and their families, surely is an affront to Allah. It seems that options should be evaluated in some new ways:

1) What courses of action are most likely to create suitable living conditions for the people, today and next year, and not at the end of some vainglorious armed struggle?

2) What is within our power to do today, with the resources within our control? Are we doing everything we can to create an economy that is responsive to the needs of the people?

3) Who, within the Muslim world, benefits from the current state of affairs? Do the rulers and the political leaders send their children off to be martyrs?

As your article so eloquently points out, progress has been best achieved by those cultures that have been willing to look inward at their problems, and therein find solutions.

David Sheridan
Los Angeles, CA

#2 from Richard G Molpus at 4:44 pm on Aug 27, 2003

This Article brings pu an important question: What cultural or social rules restricts efforts to Act?

If conspiracy theories are the result of people never being able to act to change circumstances, then studying why passivity is the cultural norm is important.

I suspect that the Cultures have adapted to despotic governance, where anyone or anything that threatened the ruling groups ( Secular or Religious ) is eliminated. Faced with an extreme intolerance to change - social, economic, or political - sitting around the coffee shop and complaining was relativly safe.

Changing the society to accept change ( as European / modern Asian societies do ) may be the only "Cure" to this; I see major difficulties when the acceptance of change starts to reach inside the Mosques,

#3 from Christopher Luebcke at 7:02 pm on Aug 27, 2003

The two above comments both correctly get at what I suspect is the crux of the problem (and our Western inability to wholly comprehend it): What will catalyze the citizenry of the Arab world to examine their problems, then devise and attempt to implement a solution?

Could it be that at the core of the conspiracy theory is a sense of impotence? That being powerless, what have we to do but rage? I think that's generally true of those I know of here in the States who are susceptible to conspiracy theories; I wonder if it applies broadly.

While not at all representative of the whole, the Palestinian intifada strikes me as an excellent if extreme example of this lack of pragmatic decision making. Whether the stated goal is the destruction of Israel, wiping out the Jews, or the less nihilistic goals of forcing Israel out of the occupied territories and establishing a Palestinian state, one has to agree that the Intifada has failed more spectacularly than any other social movement I can think of. Every bombing or other attack leaves them further from their goals, yet they persist in the same pattern of behavior. Why is that? If I had hired these people to drive Isreal into the sea, or even just out of the territories, I would have fired the lot of them a long time ago.

(Note too that Israel generally tries to address the situation by repeating actions that have been unsuccessful in the past, but I suspect that's from different causes.)

#4 from Balagan at 7:07 pm on Aug 27, 2003

that deals very very well with one of the two possibilities before us, but what of the other? what if there is not a significant conspiracy of any merit beyond the delusions and ravings of an impotent few? what happens to the egyptian (in this case) self conception if the general conspiracy believing populace is simply wrong?

its still a matter of what can be achieved of course, but the lack of hostile conspiratorial antagonists does have an impact on the nature, pursuit, and understanding of that achievement. it has a sizable impact on its context.

i do not think that it is enough to point out to those wrapped in the dreams of conspiratorial victimhood that there is a better way to respond to such things than their current course of action. i dont think the author of the above entry is implying it is enough either... just that many others may think so.

what it comes down to i think, is that it is critical to aggresively challenge those who devote themselves to conspiracy to be accountable for whether those beliefs are rooted in fantasy even as we are telling them to take responsibility for the fate of their own lives and achievements.

its very important to point out that there can be a qualitative difference between cultures and beliefs. there is no entitlement to moral or rational equivalance. it is not enough to simply achieve while remaining exclusionary or homogenous as so many of the asian nations are. to achieve without turning the same fire of inquiry on oneself as it seems at times that russia and india are apt to do. to really achieve all that any are capable of the pillars of fantasy they are living in must be challenged as aggresively as anything else.

the guest entry itself was a very good start at these issues... im just eager for the discussion to continue and expand.

#5 from Tony Foresta at 9:03 pm on Aug 27, 2003

The links reveal a catastrophic lack of Arab leadership.

If there exists a moderate islam, - an islam capable of tolerating basic human rights, dignity, and the realities of the 21st Century - its' leadership, or intelligencia has failed, for whatever reason - to articulate any cohesive message.

I keep hearing about something called moderate, progressive or peaceful islam, - but where is it? What exactly defines moderate, progressive, or peaceful islam, and more seriously - how can this islam (if it exists) tolerate (for any reason, including the conspiracy memes linked above) - the malignant, perverted, and primitive islam proselytized by the jihadist and "islamofascist" fundamentalists.

The entire world, - and especially all islam - must ask in earnest, - what positive contribution does islam offer to humanity in the 21st Century?

Outside of creative ways to kill innocent Israeli's, American's and other infidels, tyrants and despots wasting our petro dollars on personal aggrandizement, and primitive perverted bloodthirsty religious fanaticism - what does islam bring to the world?

#6 from Joe Katzman at 9:40 pm on Aug 27, 2003

Well, all of this, for example.

I mean, really, you could have asked this same question back in the 12th century about Christianity, and fired back a similar answer (other than the petrodollars part). Which would not obscure the good Christianity has done, or the body of moral reasoning it has built up, or the civilizational contribution, or the need it fulfills in the daily lives of millions. Those needs would have to be filled by something else in its absence, and while your own ideology may not appreciate Christianity either, the 20th century has shown us that the "secular-religious" alternatives ain't exactly utopia either.

None of this invalidates your points about the way Islam is presenting itself today in many places. But to ask the question rhetorically "what positive contribution does islam offer to humanity in the 21st Century?" requires a willingness to hear an answer. To be taken seriously, you have to be willing to take the next steps too and understand what Islam has been, how it has evolved, how it sees itself, and the differences within Islam.

Are you willing? Or just venting?

#7 from Tony Foresta at 11:17 pm on Aug 27, 2003

I welcome and am more than willing to hear answers Joe, since I believe this very debate is critical to the future peace, prosperity, and security of all of us, - all humanity.

We do not live in the 12th Century and of course we all know that Christianity, Judaism, and Islam are drenched in oceans of blood, and carry the cumulative "sins" of long and storied histories.

Though I am student of comparative religion, and study all religions from an academic point of view.

Your the excellent links you provided touch exactly upon the point of these memes, and the lack of islamic leadership.

Where are the Sufi mystics? Why do they not renounce publicly the insanity and perversions of jihadist and islamofascist islam to the muslim world?

Why are there not a proliferation of Sufi massras preaching islamic mysticism?

Where are the peaceful islamic leaders?

#8 from Joe Katzman at 11:47 pm on Aug 27, 2003

"Where are the Sufi mystics?"

Where they've always been.

"Why do they not renounce publicly the insanity and perversions of jihadist and islamofascist islam to the muslim world?"

There's a partial answer to that which is that a Sufi is in the world but not OF it, so that's sort of not the point of their exercise. Their point is to teach advanced mysticism to Muslims who are ready for it, and to maintain the system that figures out who is ready and transmits their knowledge.

It's almost like asking why the Shao-Lin monks don't condemn the Chinese Government. Almost.

That almost is why it's still worth pursuing that question, however. Even the Sufis have a somewhat mixed track record in terms of their role during the expansion of Islam, and this would be a legitimate and possibly enlightening area of study.

"Why are there not a proliferation of Sufi massras preaching islamic mysticism?"

The easy answer: because we haven't given them Saudi Arabia yet, or a small emirate carved out of its oil-producing regions and turned over to a government that favoured and patronized Sufi Islam as a key source of its legitimacy.

How long such an arrangement could even last under the sharp-tongued Sufis and their needling about being a slave to material things and things of the world is open to question, but it would sure be fuun to watch.

#9 from Balagan at 2:25 am on Aug 28, 2003

oh what a joy it would be to hand saudi arabia to a whole population full of sufis... its a shame there isnt a nobel war prize.. you would win it hands down joe for that brilliant idea. heh, sufi nation. fun indeed.

#10 from Tony Foresta at 4:04 am on Aug 28, 2003

Thanks Joe, but your answers support my contention that the moderate, progressive, or peaceful (mystical Sufi, or elements of Suni islam) - though they exist - are not appreciably impacting or effectively reaching the hearts and minds of the greater muslim world in any meaningful way, - and tragically - it is only the insanity and perversion of jihadist or islamofascist islam that speaks to and for the greater muslim world.

This malignant islam is pervasive through-out the - in Asia, Russia, and the near and middle east, and no muslim leadership has risen to renounce or condemn this bloodthirsty perversion of the islam. There are indeed small voices of dissent, but no loud outcry.

Part of the problem in my opinion stems from the fact that islam today, current interpretations of the Koran, and virtually every prophet, and icon of islamic worship are steeped in, and proselytize militancy and conflict with the non-islamic world, and is best described mythically in the prophet Mohammed cleansing the Caaba of idolatry. There are extraordinary mystical elements of islam, - but much of the teaching is rooted in martyrdom, vengeance, blood, and dividing the world into muslims and infidels, or kefirs, who are considered more animal than human.

There are two violently conflicted and converging wars in every human hearts that all religions describe in the primal language of archetypes and mythology of which Mohammed is a good example.

There is the war between devotion to and worship of material reality, the physical universe, and ego consciousness, - conflicting with devotion to and worship of the mystical interpenetrating and interconnected energy of the non-physical universe or spiritual reality.

The second war relates to the first and pits devotion to and worship of a vengeful wrathful god, (who feeds on blood), pitted against a benevolent and loving god of expanding energy and abundance. Both are creators, but the first is also a destroyer and god of war, and the second is of god of perpetual change and love.

Unfortunately for humanity, the material ego conscious reality, and the vengeful wrathful god have thus far dominated human affairs, and the hearts and minds of man.

#11 from Balagan at 3:20 am on Aug 29, 2003

i dont think joe was holding up sufism as the hope of a modern islamic reformation. as a source of wonderful creative energy and inspiration sure. as a source of learning about mysticism and breaking out of the limitations of quite a number of everyday things, without a doubt.

i think he was just making a general reference to the fact that islam is not as monolithic and doomed as you seem to think. there are many reasons for hope, and it is wrong to dismiss the moderating and even revolutionary forces simply because they have not yet gone further than they have. should we sit back and accept the level of progress and agitation as it is? of course not. but what you are doing is similar to dismissing the entire accomplishments of the founders of american democracy and those who fought for independence in the american revolution simply because they did not achieve everything they should have all at once... or on your desired schedule.

if we are to take a serious look at islamic reformation i think the most hopeful immediate signs are to be found in the stirrings in the shia regions of iran and iraq. the words coming out of the mouths of the students and of some quite prominent scholars, clerics, and other members of shia society are a good deal beyond simply being moderate. what we are all holding our breath for is to find out whether these are just words, or whether they have the same commitement of their own lives behind these words that our american freedom was born in.

i dont like to reference friedman as a good source of too much because he often gets as much quite wrong as he does right, but there was a very good column not too long ago that mentioned the islamic concept of Ijtihad:

"We want a secular constitution. That is the most important point. If we write a secular constitution and separate religion from state, that would be the end of despotism and it would liberate religion as well as the human being.

The Islamic religion has been hijacked for 14 centuries by the hands of the state. The state dominated religion, not the other way around. It used religion for its own ends. Tyrants ruled this nation for 14 centuries and they covered their tyranny with the cloak of religion.

When I called for secularism in Nasiriya (in the first postwar gathering of Iraqi leaders), they started saying things against me. But last week I had some calls from Qum, thanking me for presenting this thesis and saying, `We understand what you are calling for, but we cannot say so publicly.'

"Secularism is not blasphemy. I am a Muslim. I am devoted to my religion. I want to get it back from the state and that is why I want a secular state.

When young people come to religion, not because the state orders them to but because they feel it themselves in their hearts, it actually increases religious devotion.

The problem of the Middle East cannot be solved unless all the states in the area become secular.

I call for opening the door for Ijtihad [reinterpretation of the Koran in light of changing circumstances]. The Koran is a book to be interpreted [by] each age. Each epoch should not be tied to interpretations from 1,000 years ago. We should be open to interpretations based on new and changing times."

...this is not light stuff, and we should not dismiss it as if it is. if you dont mind paying the nytimes for an archived bit of writing, do yourself a favor and go read the whole thing: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/10/opinion/10FRIE.html

#12 from Tony Foresta at 5:05 am on Aug 29, 2003

Outstanding comment Balagan, and I pray voices like yours are heard and recognized throughout Islam and the rest of the world.

I did not intend to condemn Islam collectively, but to shine a light as you have done in far more eloquent terms on the "hijacking" of Islam, and the lack of leadership voicing that tragedy.

Thank you for providing a good example strong leadership and voice of hope for all of us.

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