The L.A. Times writes (May 7, 2002):

"U.S. officials believe that Cuba has "at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and development effort," said John R. Bolton, undersecretary of State for arms control and international security. And they fear that the Cubans might be passing on their germ weapons know-how to other "rogue" states, he said in a speech at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative public policy center in Washington."

We know, unlike the "Brookings Institute" which is just a think-tank with no adjective. Anyway....

This is something of a departure, as American administrations have not talked about this much in the past. The question is "why? - and why now?"

The media worry that this is all political, focused on internal issues and Florida seats. Maybe. There is disagreement over how much proof exists that Cuba is developing a dangerous germ weapons capability. That's fair. Short of having agents on the ground there, we'll never know.

That doesn't mean the threat should be taken lightly. During the 1980s, the use of chemical weapons by the Soviet Union and proxies like Vietnam and Laos was consistent, sustained, and large-scale. These included standard nerve gasses, agents that remain unknown, and tricothecene mycotoxins, fungal derivations also referred to as "yellow rain." Some cynicism is good here, but I'd be careful not to dismiss the reports out of hand. The history and capability suggest a warranted caution.

Here's what we do know:

• Cuba has a fairly well-developed and sophisticated biomedical industry, which until 1990 had substantial support from the Soviet Union. That equipment can be applied to other purposes, and Bolton claims (without specifying) that these technologies have been provided to rogue states.
  
• Cuba has spent millions on sophisticated biomedical gear, even though it often has shortages of basic medical products. Is this an effort to maintain a toehold in a promising area, or military in nature? Hard to tell, but it raises a flag.
  
• Cuban President Fidel Castro visited Iran, Syria and Libya last year and apparently told an audience at Tehran University, "Iran and Cuba, in cooperation with each other, can bring America to its knees."

Normal Castroite blathering, or something else? Here, I actually vote for blathering. Castro knows what would happen if chemical weapons were ever used by Iran against U.S. soldiers, let alone any kind of civilian target.

Still, it's good to see a US administration handing out these warnings, and putting people on notice that they're watching. Biowar and chemical weapon production is necessarily a high-stakes diplomatic gamble, and anything that ups the perceived risk further is good.