Dan's Winds of War: 2003-08-28

[Printout Version] Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Dan Darling of Regnum Crucis.

TOP TOPICS

• IAEA inspectors in Iran have discovered traces of weapons-grade uranium. See our Iran Reports, below, for more.

• There was a major bombing in the Indian financial hub of Mumbai (Bombay) this week that killed at least 65. Local suspicion appears to be focused on either the Student Islamic Movement of India or the Pakistani-based Lashkar-e-Taiba that harbored Abu Zubaydah and acts as a secret police for al-Qaeda in Pakistan according to US or Indian intelligence. This event may well reingnite the possibilty of war between India and Pakistan if LeT involvement is confirmed.

• This transcript of Rumsfeld and Abizaid's recent press conference re: Iraq is a must-read. Note the new Iraqi forces mentioned, and you'll want to read right to the end for the best question of all. Tip of the hat to Blaster.

Other Topics Today Include: Iraq Briefings; SCIRI vs. Sadr?; al-Qaeda & GIA in Iraq; Iran-NK cooperation; al-Qaeda cells in Canada & USA; the latest developments in the Bali bombers' trial; al-Qaeda's funding of Jemaah Islamiyyah; the JI infrastructure in Southeast Asia; a call for an end to violence in Algeria; tracking down the Sahara kidnappers; simultaneous bombings in Mumbai and Krasnodar; the assassination of a Dagestani minister; Mullah Omar in the mountains; Osama in northern Pakistan; and a Canadian ban on smiling on passports.

IRAQ BRIEFING

• While this shouldn't come as much of a surprise, al-Qaeda has claimed responsibility for the UN bombing and specifically singles out de Mello as a "friend of the criminal Bush." The communique comes from the Brigades of the Martyr Abu Hafs al-Masri (after the late al-Qaeda military commander's nom de guerre), the same group that claimed responsibility for the Northeast Blackout. Is that a full schedule, or what?

• Another al-Qaeda affiliate that has claimed responsibility for the attack is the Armed Vanguards of the Second Mohammed Army. I found the Arabic name of this organization (Jaish Mohammed) to be rather curious because, as I noted on my blog, it's showed up before.

• The US has handed control of the Shi'ite holy city of Karbala over to Bulgarian forces. Karbala's mayor, Akram al-Yassri, is thanking the coalition for everything it's done to rebuild Karbala since the end of the war.

• Armed Liberal wonders if the USA should be bringing in Russians to join them. Which ignites a very lively and infiormed comments thread.

• What has apparently a major Iraqi criminal cartel based out of Khalis has now been dismantled as a result of US intervention.

• The Iranian-backed Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) appears to be out in full force after the uncle of their leader was slightly injured in a bombing that killed three on August 24. I suspect that the power struggle between SCIRI and Sadr's Mahdi Army may mirror parallel events in Iran (both Sadr and Hakim are backed by Tehran), especially now that Hezbollah has sided with SCIRI.

• The most popular weapon for GIs in Iraq these days appears to be captured Iraqi AK-47s.

• Witness Lt. Smash's return in all of its glory over at Command Post.

• The World Tribune is claiming that Iraq's WMDs were moved to Lebanon. I'd take this with a fifty-fifty chance of being true, just based on my own past experience with the Tribune.

• It appears that al-Qaeda leader Abdel Rahman al-Najdi's call for al-Qaeda fighters to head to Iraq is being heeded. According to ABC News, fighters from the Algerian GIA are now en route to Iraq.

• The "coalition of the willing" looks like it's standing firm in Iraq.

• Which "cards" have we captured so far? The CENTCOM list. And the visual version of "Ba'ath Poker."

• The troops are still there. So is the Winds of Change.NET consolidated directory of ways you can support the troops. American, British and Australian. Anyone out there with more information, incl. the Poles and Czechs? [updated August 19, 2003]

IRAN REPORTS

• After months of pressure, Iran has deported a number of Saudi al-Qaeda suspects back to the Kingdom. Not that the Saudi track record on such things is all that reassuring. Per Alphabet City, don't count on Saad bin Laden being among them.

• Top Iranian leader Rafsanjani says that US policy was responsible for the UN bombing. I'd tend to point the finger at the al-Qaeda leaders that are based in Iran, myself ...

• Let the finger-pointing begin. The Daily Times says that India is assisting Iran with its nuclear weapons program. The Washington Post says that Iran is definitely getting foreign help from somewhere and quotes IAEA officials as implying that Pakistan maybe that "somewhere." If so, this would be exceedingly odd foreign policy, as Iran has a mutual defense pact with India. It is also interesting that no one has mentioned North Korea as the potential source of proliferation through second-hand Pakistani technology, as North Korea and Iran were said to be engaging in joint talks to develop nuclear warheads earlier this month, that missiles are exported from North Korea to Iran on a regular basis, and that Iranian nuclear experts make regular trips to North Korea. I tell ya, it almost looks like an "Axis of Evil"...

U.S.A. HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING

• The indications are that the 19 men arrested in Canada that Andrew noted on Monday were part of an al-Qaeda sleeper cell.

• US authorities are investigating two Muslim organizations based out of Falls Church for ties to al-Qaeda. One wonders whether or not they had anything to do with the Lashkar-e-Taiba sleeper cell in Virginia.

• According to the New York Times, the US is monitoring six groups for links to al-Qaeda and is tracking suspected al-Qaeda operatives across more than 40 states. My opinion continues to be that al-Qaeda prefers to operate in filial or social networks that are exceedingly difficult for law enforcement to penetrate, thereby attempting to emulate the success of November 17.

THE WIDER WAR

• The Bali bombing trial continues in Indonesia, with bombmaker Abdul Ghoni thanking the Australian anti-war protesters for opposing the US. Meanwhile, as Ali Imron expresses his regret over his role in the bombings, the Archangel Gabriel appears to have weighed in with his own message for the Bali bombers: they're all going to hell.

• The evidence of al-Qaeda's role in setting up Jemaah Islamiyyah are getting hard to ignore, according to the International Crisis Group. Meanwhile, evidence suggests that Jemaah Islamiyyah is regrouping even after Hanbali's capture and has established ties with other Indonesian fundamentalist groups. Tip of the hat to the ever-valuable Paul Moloney for this one.

• The former leader of the Algerian Islamic Salvation Front, Abassi Madani, has called on the Algerian al-Qaeda affiliates GIA and GSPC to renounce violence and stand down from the civil war that has left over 100,000 Algerians dead over the last decade.

• An international effort has been launched by Germany, Algeria, and Mali to hunt down the GSPC members who held 32 European tourists hostage. If this is effort succeeds, the GSPC won't be retaining the $5,440,000 they received in ransom money from the German government for very long.

• The United States has condemned the bombing in Mumbai, though, as the Times of India notes, the bombing occurred on the same day that a bombing in the Russian city of Krasnodar killed three. One might recall that on the same day as the Riyadh bombings there was also a major suicide bombing in Chechnya.

• The Moscow Times reports that Magomedsalikh Gusayev, the Dagestani Minister for Inter-Ethnic Policy, was killed in a car bombing in his home. Gusayev is much hated by the Chechen militants who invaded Dagestan under the leadership of bin Laden lieutenant Khattab in 1999.

• Mullah Omar is said to be hiding in the Afghan mountains with 800 loyalists. While the source is Arab Times, it may well be true. Who knows, one of the recent bombings of the area may have killed him. We'd like a body, but just plain dead is acceptable.

• The Guardian claims that bin Laden is hiding in northern Pakistan, where he is protected by lots of angry locals. The story cites Mansoor Ijaz as the source. You can find my opinion on all of this here.

• JK: We try to close on a lighter note if possible. Canada, for no apparent reason that I can discern, has banned passport smiles. The directive has caused little stir in Toronto, where it was redundant anyway.

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