Dan's Winds of War: 2003-10-23

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" and Iraq Report are brought to you by Dan Darling of Regnum Crucis.

Top Topics

• Osama bin Laden, or someone who sounds like him, has released an audiotape to al-Jazeera in which he issues his latest round of threats. You can read my point-by-point analysis as well as speculation on what it may mean here and here. In addition to propaganda, it seems that the message may have far more sinister undertones to it.

• Hosting Matters, which hosts a number of prominent warbloggers, recently experienced DoS attacks from what Powerline says was supporters of al-Qaeda. For more discussion on this topic, go here. If Powerline is accurate, bloggers should expect more of these DOS attacks in the future.

• I recently made a number of predictions regarding al-Qaeda's next course of action and its implications for the War on Terror. Now, 2 weeks later, we'll see how some of those predictions have panned out.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran Reports; USA Homeland Security Briefing; Jemaah Islamiyyah second-in-command free in Malaysia; Hugo Chavez and al-Qaeda; the People's War in India; Abu Abdul Najdi rants and raves online; al-Qaeda lying low in the Philippines; Hassan Hattab deposed as GSPC leader; more Taliban and coalition clashes in Afghanistan; border battles in Pakistan; Ahmed Khadr's great escape; Dawood Ibrahim a global terrorist; Jemaah Islamiyyah summit; 60 rebels captured in Chechnya; anti-Western attacks in East Africa; and one hell of a leap of faith.

IRAN REPORTS

• Saad bin Laden is in Iran and is being protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps along with over two dozen other al-Qaeda leaders and ~400 middle management. Qods Force, the IRGC subdivision that is protecting the al-Qaeda leaders, was formerly run by Ahmed Vahidi (who is now a deputy defense minister?) has long-standing ties to al-Qaeda dating as far back as the early 1990s.

• Der Spiegel is reporting via al-Bawabathat Israel has plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities a la Osiraq and says that Iran has three hidden nuclear facilities that are completely hidden to the outside world.

• Meanwhile, Israel military intelligence chief General Aharon Zeevi says that in 10 months, the Iranian nuclear program will reach the point of no return. This may be one of the reasons for the sense of urgency in resolving the situation regarding Iran's nuclear program.

U.S.A Homeland Security Briefing

• The terrorist financial apparatus in the United States run deep, as can be seen from this story detailing the antics of the Safa Group.

• Evidence appears to be emerging that serial sniper John Mohammed who terrorized the DC area for nearly a month was in fact a member of al-Fuqra. Whether or not this means that USA is going to have to remake their movie of him, beats me ...

THE WIDER WAR

• Mohammed Iqbal bin Abdul Rahman has been granted a stay on his deportation to Indonesia by the Malaysian High Court. Also known as Abu Jibril, he is blacklisted by US State Department and is regarded as the second-in-command of Jemaah Islamiyyah.

• Claims of connections between Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and al-Qaeda have been widely circulating for the last year or so on anti-Chavez websites like Militares Democraticos. I generally ignored such claims as propaganda until US News and World Report started talking along similar lines (DD: the original site is no longer accessible free of charge, though you can read most of the article along with my initial commentary here). Now it seems that UPI is also reporting on these connections as well.

• The Asia Times has a disturbing account of the rise of the People's War in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh and its ties to other communist terrorist groups like the LTTE, the PKK, and the Shining Path.

• Al-Qaeda leader Abu Abdul Rahman al-Najdi has taken to the internet to issue a new call to arms, this time against the Iraqi Governing Council.

• Foreign al-Qaeda fighters training at MILF camps in the Philippines have been told to stay out of sight while MILF resumes its negotiations with the Filippino government.

• Hassan Hattab, the fanatical leader of the Algerian GSPC has reportedly been deposed by the organization and replaced with Nabil Sahraoui. Sahraoui, who doesn't appear to be wasting any time in scaling up the GSPC's attacks, has already issued a communique in support of al-Qaeda's war against the West.

• Taliban fighters in Afghanistan are stirring up trouble in Zabul. US and Afghan troops responded by attacking a Taliban camp. To date, the most recent Taliban activity has been a highway seizure, a sign that the US counter-insurgency campaign is having some success. There have also been some recent indications that the "moderate" faction of the Taliban are willing to negotiate with the Karzai government.

• Across the border in Pakistan, the Pakistani military killed a high-ranking al-Qaeda member following a gun battle in which 2 Pakistani soldiers and 8 al-Qaeda operatives were killed, with another 18 being taken prisoner, with US national Abdullah al-Saoub being among the dead.

• There was some initial speculation that top al-Qaeda leader Ahmed Khadr was among the dead, but it seems that he managed to escape. However, it should be noted that the entire Khadr family appears to be involved with al-Qaeda to at least some extent and that one of his sons was in charge of a terrorist training camp before 9/11.

• Paul Maloney explains why the US designation of Dawood Ibrahim as a global terrorist is a key victory for the war on terrorism in South Asia.

• Jemaah Islamiyyah is reportedly organizing summits and replacing captured terrorist leaders - a probable sign that they are getting ready to launch more attacks.

• Russian forces in Chechnya have captured 60 terrorists rebels planning to attack the inauguration ceremony of the Russian-backed Akhmad Kadyrov and funded by Abu Walid, a relative of several of the 9/11 hijackers. Meanwhile, Russian casualties in Chechnya appear to be on the rise.

• Attacks on Westerners appear to be on the rise in Somalia, while the al-Qaeda affiliate Eritrean Islamic Jihad has attacked US NGO workers near the Red Sea.

• We try to close on lighter note if possible. As a religious person, I generally think that a leap of faith every now and then is a good thing, but I sure hope that this isn't what most people have in mind ...

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