Dan's Winds of War: 2003-11-27

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report. Today's briefings are brought to you by Dan Darling of Regnum Crucis.

TOP TOPICS

• Abu Musab Zarqawi may have ordered the Istanbul bombings according to the Asia Times and CNN. The CNN story also establishes the first definitive link between al-Tawhid (Zarqawi's own organization, which is in of itself part of the larger al-Qaeda the same way that the Egyptian groups are) and the Turkish Hezbollah, which is not to be confused with the larger Lebanese organization of the same name.

• Al-Qaeda military commander Saif al-Adel ordered the Riyadh bombings from Iran and we now know where he and 24 other top al-Qaeda leaders (along with over 500 others, according to the first article) are being harbored by the Qods Force of the IRGC.

• Regular readers of this site already know about my analysis of the Weekly Standard memo that have been appearing on a daily basis over the course of the last several weeks. Several hours before the first of these was going to be published, I learned about Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball's Newsweek web exclusive and promised to address the points that it raised. You can find my rebuttal to Isikoff and Hosenball here as well as my conclusion that what they are putting forth is essentially a straw man argument.

Other Topics Today Include:Iraq Briefing; Iran Reports; USA Homeland Security Briefing; al-Qaeda's Algerian bases; Mohammed Hamdi al-Ahdal arrested in Yemen; 5 US soldiers killed in Afghan helicopter crash; Indo-Pakistani truce on Kashmir; reaping the fruits of al-Qaeda's training camps; a Turkish jihadi's interview; progress in the war on terror in East Africa; UN assessing security in Eritrea; JI regrouping; Bashir blames Australia; and more political correctness run amok.

IRAQ BRIEFING

• The Iraqi Governing Council is shutting down al-Arabiyyah in Baghdad and raided the network's offices.

• Hezbollah has established a presence inside of Iraq but has refrained from attacking US forces - so far.

• Iraqi-American Rend Rahim Francke has been appointed the new Iraqi ambassador to the US by the Governing Council.

• Japan is considering sending air and sea units to Iraq while the nation continues to weigh the prospect of deploying ground forces to assist the US.

• I have noted before that Iraqi insurgents were posting videos of their antics online at various websites ideologically tied to al-Qaeda, but now it seems they have decided to go mainstream by sending a video of a SAM attack to the Paris-based magazine Le Nouvel Observateur.

• The Salvation Army reports on their reconstruction work in Missan province, near the Iranian border.

• Jay Garner, the initial US administrator in Iraq, is explaining how rivalries between the State Department and the Pentagon affected post-war planning in Iraq.

• The wife and daughter of Baathist leader Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri have been captured in Samarra, 70 miles north of Baghdad.

IRAN REPORTS

• The IAEA has condemned Iran over covering up its nuclear activities, but does not intend to report the Islamic Republic to the Security Council.

• The US is reportedly happy with the IAEA decision, which is a compromise between the US, UK, France, and Germany that states that no further perfidy on Iran's part is going to be tolerated.

• Expediency Council chairman Rafsanjani, meanwhile, is saying that Iran will not accept any decisions that it deems to be in conflict with its "nuclear energy rights."

• Iran, meanwhile, is dismissing a resolution from the UN Human Rights Committee highly critical of the Islamic Republic. Introducing the resolution was Canadian deputy UN ambassador Gilbert Laurin, who referenced the tragic death of photographer Zahra Kazemi.

• Iran has handed over 7 KADEK to Turkey in what is likely a PR offensive to divert criticism from Ankara regarding Iranian complicity in the recent bombings in Istanbul, as both groups that have been fingered for carrying it out (the Islamic Great Eastern Raiders' Front and the Turkish Hezbollah) are backed, armed, and trained by Iran.

• EurasiaNet is reporting both mass discontent and eerie quiet in Tehran as part of an explanation as to why the hardliners may well win the next round of elections. However, not everyone is so pessimistic.

• Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has decided to personally oversee Israeli efforts to stop the Iranian nuclear program. Whether or not this is going to result in an Osiraq-style attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is unclear at this time.

• Michael Ledeen talks about Italy, Turkey, and the US and how the recent attacks in Istanbul and Nasiriyah have achieved the exact opposite of what they were intended to accomplish - if we play it right.

• Mansoor Ijaz, meanwhile, is citing what he calls credible reports stating that bin Laden has sought refuge in Iran along with his second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri. This is certainly possible, given what we know about Iran's relationship with al-Qaeda, but I somehow have a hard time of imagining bin Laden and his top deputy passing themselves off as Shi'ite clerics. All the same, a good rule of thumb with bin Laden is never to under-estimate the man, his resolve, or his willingness to ally with any party, state, or organization in order to achieve his objectives.

US HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING

• Arx Americana takes note of the threat of al-Qaeda car bombs against the United States.

• Members of the Lackawanna Six sleeper cell are now talking with US officials, who are of course very interested in what they have to say.

THE WIDER WAR

• Numerous individuals, myself included, have noted al-Qaeda's interest in cultivating bases in Africa, far away from the eyes of Western intelligence agencies. Now we're learning a little more about these bases as well as one of al-Qaeda's allies on the continent - Salafist Group for Call and Combat, better known by its French acronym of as the GSPC.

• Al-Qaeda's highest-ranking operative in Yemen, Mohammed Hamdi al-Ahdal, has been captured outside of San'a. He is succeeded by Abu Ali al-Khandahari, who reportedly oversaw the direct merger of the Islamic Army of Aden and the Yemeni Islamic Jihad with al-Qaeda several months ago.

• 5 US soldiers were killed in a helicopter crash just outside of Kabul on Sunday.

• Pakistan has declared a cease-fire in Kashmir and India is reportedly following suit, though there is no word yet on whether or not the two dozen or so organizations operating there (at least 4 of which are part of bin Laden's International Islamic Front) are going to abide by it.

• From Bali to Istanbul, nearly every major terrorist attack since September 11 has had one common denominator to it: the attackers were all alumni of al-Qaeda's Afghan training camps. In addition, the Istanbul suicide bombers also spent time in Pakistan, likely fighting in one of al-Qaeda's affiliates in Jammu and Kashmir.

• Afghanistan and Pakistan don't seem to be the only places to receive al-Qaeda training, however. According to an interview with one Turkish jihadi, al-Qaeda was also training fighters in Georgia and Chechnya.

• The US presence in East Africa is having an effect in regards to the war on terror, with 25 senior al-Qaeda leaders captured or killed over the course of the last year according to Brigadier General Mastin Robeson.

• The UN is assessing the security in western Eritrea following a series of attacks attributed to the Sudanese-backed Harakat al-Jihad al-Islami, better known as the Eritrean Islamic Jihad.

• US officials in Southeast Asia are saying that Jemaah Islamiyyah is back on track following the loss of Hanbali. This comes as Thailand reports that over 128 al-Qaeda operatives traveled through the Kingdom (and I would class the Egyptians and JI members as al-Qaeda as well unless one wants to quibble about semantics, bringing the total to 144) in the last 3 years.

• JI spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir, meanwhile, is saying that it's all Australia's fault that he can no longer deliver his rants against the large number of people that he hates to his fellow inmates at the Salemba prison.

• We try to end on a lighter note if possible. Now I'm all for social diversity and what not, but do we really have to ban master/slave references in terms to computing devices in Los Angeles County?