Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Dan Darling. of Regnum Crucis.
TOP TOPICS
- State Department counterterrorism coordinator Cofer Black is saying that bin Laden has been driven so far underground by the US efforts to capture him that he is no longer in active control of al-Qaeda, having delegated the day-to-day running of the terrorist network to his subordinates.
- "Iran's Power Play" explains what exactly is currently occurring inside Iraq, adds some observations with regard to who is likely behind the recent fighting, and looks at what could happen if we should fail.
- MI6 has established a clear link between al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan and the recently thwarted UK terrorist plot.
Other Topics Today Include: Iraq Briefing; Iran Reports; Saudi Arabia opposes Pakistani terror amnesty; Singaporean JI leader offers to stop attacks; Dawood Ibrahim gets plastic surgery; ex-IMU member sez there's a revolution on the rise; Uzbekistan sez most of the IMU are jugged; Abu Sayyaf down to 400; MILF harbored Abu Sayyaf, JI; JI trained Abu Sayyaf; French arrest 15 Moroccans; new threat to Spain; Hekmatyar lieutenant captured; al-Qaeda affiliate linked to Somali NGO killings; assassination attempt on Ingushetian president; dynamite theft in Norway; France links Courtailler to 3/11 and Casablanca; and vodka-flavored ice cream!
IRAQ BRIEFING
- Saddam Hussein had the ability to produce "just in time" WMD according to Charles Duelfer, the new head of the Iraqi Survey Group.
- The French government was apparently willing to stand by and let the US go to war with Iraq - provided that we did so without a second UN resolution.
- Two US senators, Richard Lugar and Joe Biden, are calling for greater US-European cooperation with regard to Iraq, including a new UN Security Council resolution on the subject.
- US and coalition forces have attacked members of Sadr's Mahdi Army in al-Showla, Kufa, . Clearly, the threat posed by Sadr is coming to a head.
- Sadr, predictably enough, is telling al-Jazeera that he'll go down fighting. Grand Ayatollah Sistani seems to have a different idea that Muqtada might be well advised to take.
- Fortunately, most Iraqi Shi'ites do not appear to want Sadr lording over them any time soon.
- Al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab Zarqawi has released a new audio message railing against the US and Iraqi Shi'ites.
- 8 American security contractors in An Najaf foiled an attack by as many as 70 members of the Mahdi Army.
- Italy plans to keep its troops in Iraq despite clashes with Muqtada Sadr.
- The Mahdi Army briefly surrounded the Polish military headquarters south of Baghdad for several hours before retreating. Polish forces also killed a top Sadr aide in Karbala.
- A major clash has left 12 US troops dead in the Sunni city of Ar Ramadi as Operation Vigilant Resolve begins in Fallujah.
- For the confused, here is a full summary of US military actions in Iraq for April 6, 2004.
- There are indications in Baghdad that Sadr's appeal has spread beyond his traditional support base in Sadr City and even into the Iraqi Sunni population.
IRAN REPORTS
- While this shouldn't be any real surprise, Iran and its proxy arm Hezbollah are backing Sadr against the US-led coalition.
- Iran is promising to show the IAEA that they aren't building nukes by mid-May.
- Meanwhile, Iran is starting production on a new heavy water reactor in Arak.
THE WIDER WAR
- Saudi Arabia is opposing Pakistan's planned terrorist amnesty program - likely out of the fear that any Saudi al-Qaeda who agree to the amnesty may return home to carry out attacks in the Kingdom.
- Singaporean JI leader Ibrahim Maidin is offering to stop terrorist attacks - provided the city-state sets him free.
- Wanted by India and the United States, South Asian mob boss and al-Qaeda supporter Dawood Ibrahim is looking to get some plastic surgery in the near future.
- Former IMU member Uigun Saidov believes that an Islamist revolution in Uzbekistan is just around the corner. WoC Central Asia correspondent Nathan Hamm has more.
- Uzbekistan, meanwhile, claims to have rounded up most of the perpetrators of last week's violence.
- The War on Terrorism has taken its toll on Abu Sayyaf. Once at 1,200, the Philippines-based al-Qaeda affiliate is now down to just 400 fighters.
- A renegade faction of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is harboring JI and Abu Sayyaf according to the Filippino government.
- Speaking of JI, according to hostage accounts they were training Abu Sayyaf on Mount Buod Bagsak.
- French authorities have arrested 15 Moroccans suspected of involvement in the Casablanca bombings.
- Spanish authorities are examining a fax from the suspected representative of al-Qaeda in Europe as they hunt down the remaining perpetrators of the Madrid bombings.
- US forces in Afghanistan have captured a key aide to renegade warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
- Saudi al-Qaeda leader Abdul Aziz al-Muqrin is calling for death of moderate Muslim clerics.
- Al-Ittihad al-Islamiyyah, the main al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, is believed by officials in the autonomous region of Somaliland to be responsible for the attacks on Western NGO workers in the counry.
- The pro-Russian president of Ingushetia has survived an apparent assassination attempt, likely by Chechen jihadis seeking to eliminate a key ally of Vladimir Putin.
- An apparent dynamite theft in Norway is raising fears that it could be used to carry out an al-Qaeda attack similar to that seen in Spain.
- A French court has linked David Courtailler to both 3/11 and the Casablanca bombings.
- We try to end on a lighter note if possible. It seems a vodka-flavored ice cream is causing quite a stir in Australia ...
B"H
Cofer Black had better cover his bases. Bin Ladin has more tricks up his greasy sleeves than Black knows; an old Arab terrorist ploy is to lay low until the other side gets sloppy or drops its guard, and then go for the jugular in a surprise megastrike. IMHO such smug declarations serve no purpose. Hold a fancy press conference after you nab the villain. Warm regards from sunny Ashdod.
The "just in time WMD" has me bugged. The conclusions may be correct, but the administration doesn't do itself any favors here by offering unsubstantiated conclusions which lead to inevitable questions on the data behind the questions. They ought to fully brief the Senate and House Intell committees first, and publically announce the agendas and top level conclusions, and then when asked questions for data say that as noted in the agenda, the data is classified.
The net info to us is the same, but at least Levin can't then get up and legitimately note that nobody is validating these theories in any substantive way.
Tom:
I tend to agree. On the other hand, it is interesting information so I figured it's worth noting.
Streets, which makes the Magnums now on sale in Victoria state as part of its “vice-cream” range, said the ice creams contained only vodka flavoring and no alcohol.
Now this is a disappointment. I thought for a moment that our allies from the land of Oz had made another breakthrough in consuming alcohol not merely with but as all courses in a meal.
Brief note to Lurker:
Dude - if you're around, I'm sorry I bailed on our debate thread a few days ago. I got slammed by taxes / financial paperwork stuff and simply couldn't afford the time it was taking. That was maybe for the best, because we were both getting frustrated anyway and the rhetoric was getting a little heated.
Though, I also feel like we were finally starting to connect a bit towards the end. And I really do think that's the most important thing our country needs right now ... the two ends of our political spectrum need to at least start meeting long enough to have real discussions of the issues instead of just tossing around invectives (and I condemn both sides equally for that). Everyone's so polarized right now, and unless we can at least learn to talk I'm very afraid for this country.
Anyway, even if we didn't come to a consensus I wanted you to know that I really apprecated you taking the time to carry on that long debate with me. I think it's important. I hope things are well with you.
Perhaps we can pick it up again another time. (After tax day...)
Regards,
Ev
I suspect the Coromoto ice cream parlor in Merida, Venezuela would have Vodka ice cream with real Vodka.
http://tango.gmxhome.de/05172001.htm
In the early stages of the Kay Report, the magic phrase was "dual use". That way, equipment that belonged in any university chem lab could also be aggregated into the WMD threat. (Not even counting the instances like the aluminum tubes and the Botox, where the WMD use was imaginary.) By now, Kay has given up. Flat out.
The just-in-time story sounds like more of the same. Where are the newly-discovered laboratories and raw materials to justify it? And Iraq certainly doesn't have the transport infrastructure associated with JIT production on the Japanese model! When all the hype is done, we'll find that Saddam had the capability of developing some relatively low-threat agents on short notice, not because he was exceptionally well-prepared and ready, but because they will be the agents don't need a lot of precursor chemicals and special equipment to assemble. The CW equivalent of moonshine.
Also ask yourself: why didn't Saddam assemble and use these weapons, if he could? Wolf. Wolf. Wolf.
http://www.aljazeera.com/cgi-bin/news_service/world_full_story.asp?service_id=1356
For what it is worth
John:
The source of this story is a group of Pakistani villagers. I very much doubt that bin Laden would have informed them of his travel plans.
LEST WE FORGET, how is "Just In Time WMD" incorrect or deficient given that during the Cold War, so-called "quick access" to Soviet or Chicom nuke weapons and delivery systems was a source of PR pride for the minor Commie or WARPAC states; given that pre-invasion fotage exists of Saddamists attempting to pass off IMPROVED [nuke-capable] FROG Battlefield rockets as conventional-only SCUDS, and lastly given that David Kay himself said that his group would NOT look at the many 000's of known orsuspected WMD sites. inside IRAQ only, but only focus on the 600 or less, best sites for WMDS, which again his group was only able to finish inpecs on 120 of "best" 150 of the "best" 600 -in short, Kay's margin for error or potential error is such as to cast doubt on any claims IRAQ HAD NO WMDS!? IFF NEWSMAX and other Net news is corect, I find it absolutely incredible and hoorifying that of over 10,000 Clinton-era documents released to the 9-11 Commission, of those 000's only 12 were meaningful or relevant as to Clintonian AMerica's pre-9-11 mindset and sstate of preparedness.