Dan's Winds of War: 2004-01-15

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" and in-depth Iraq Report are brought to you by Dan Darling of Regnum Crucis.

TOP TOPICS

• The Washington Post takes a look at the prime suspects in the assassination attempt on Musharraf and right now it looks like al-Qaeda, JeM, LeT, and LeJ are the primary suspects. Given the byzantine nature of Pakistani internal politics, it should be interesting to see what action, if any, is taken against the latter three organizations.

• The US is launching a worldwide manhunt for Midhat Mursi, also known as Abu Khabab. Mursi is reputed to be the top scientist for al-Qaeda's chemical and biological weapons program.

• Mansoor Ijaz has an alarming report that the IRGC is sending chemical or biological weapons across the Iraqi border for the purposes of attacking Baghdad as well as planning to launch a massive offensive into western Afghanistan (I assume with the assistance of their proxies there, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Ismail Khan). I don't have access to Ijaz's sources, so I have no way of judging the credibility of this information, but his last "big scoop" (that bin Laden and al-Zawahiri are likely in Iran and under the protection of the IRGC) was more or less confirmed as well as any new bin Laden report can be by a story in the Financial Times a week or so later.

• The Guardian has a fairly good primer up on al-Qaeda's European network that you can read my analysis of here. I would also note that Winds of Change first mentioned most of the revelations contained within the Guardian over a month ago.

Other Topics Today Include: Iran Reports; USA Homeland Security Briefing; Taliban attacks in Afghanistan; Afghan disarmament underway; MILF perfidy in the Philippines; Thai violence linked to al-Qaeda; Malaysia arrests Thai arms depot raiders; Indonesian nabs JI associate; BBC story on the women of JI; Fazul Abdullah Mohammed's undercover career in Kenya; Nabil Sahrawi interview; US anti-terrorist team bound for West Africa; Saudis acknowledge that al-Qaeda's in the National Guard; Israeli-Turkish alliance; France thwarts a chemical weapons attack; and Baghdad Bob returns to the airwaves.

IRAN REPORTS

• Iran is denying an Israeli claim that Syrian planes carrying humanitarian aid for the Bam earthquake victims returned home with weapons for Hezbollah.

• Expendiency Council chairman Ali Akbar Rafsanjani is blaming Bush for his statements that Iran is working on WMDs, harboring al-Qaeda leaders, sponsoring international terrorism, and taking note of the nation's stellar human rights record.

• Iranian president Mohammed Khatami is accusing the Guardian Council of making Iran look despotic by barring hundreds of reformist candidates from the upcoming elections, including the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini.

• Speaking of Khomeinis, Alphabet City has a link to a recent report by Michael Ledeen that Hossein Khomeini was forced to return to Iran as a result of threats against his family.

USA HOMELAND SECURITY BRIEFING

• A new source, possibly inside al-Qaeda, was partially responsible for the US decision to raise the threat level during the holiday season according to USA Today.

• A Chicago-area jury is being shown intelligence documents that portray area newspaper publisher Khaled Dumeisi as a spy for Saddam Hussein.

• The US is planning for a dirty bomb attack by sending out teams of scientists to major cities with radiation detection equipment to monitor the radiation level in hopes of detecting any attempt to bring such a weapon into a major metropolitan area.

• Saudi national Sami Omar al-Hussayen has been indicted for distributing terrorist funds and seeking to recruit additional terrorists.

• Cleveland Islamic leader Fawaz Mohammed Damrah has been indicted for concealing his links to Islamic terrorist organizations, among other things.

THE WIDER WAR

• The Taliban has launched a series of renewed attacks in Afghanistan within the last week in Uruzgan, Nimroz, and Khashrow. On a more positive note, Afghanistan's mujahideen are disarming, suggesting a possible lull in the inter-warlord feuding.

• The Pakistani military has launched a major operation into southern Waziristan in hopes of locating al-Qaeda suspects. While the actual al-Qaeda appear to have escaped, the suspects wanted for harboring them have surrendered to the authorities.

• A faction within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is the prime suspect in the recent Maguindanao bombing that killed 15. The MILF is also believed to be hosting the training grounds for Jemaah Islamiyyah's second generation as well as supplying weapons to the communist NPA. Thank God we all know that militant Islamists and secular communists could never work together ...

• Thailand new security advisor Kitti Rattanachaya is claiming that the recent violence in southern Thailand has an al-Qaeda connection through both JI and the KMM. As a result, Thailand is probing Islamic schools as the authorities try to hunt down terror suspects.

• Malaysia, meanwhile, has arrested several Thai in connection with the January 4 army depot raid that started the upswing in violence in southern Thailand.

• Indonesian authorities have arrested Adi Sunarya for his links with JI leaders Azahari bin Husin and Noordin Mohammed Top.

• BBC has lengthy story up on the women of Jemaah Islamiyyah that helps to illustrate what I've noted before about al-Qaeda operating within close filial or social circles as a means of preserving operational security - something I think that they might have picked up from the Greek terrorist organization November 17.

• Fazul (sometimes Faisal) Abdullah Mohammed, al-Qaeda's point man in East Africa, had quite an undercover career in Kenya before masterminding the Mombasa attacks against Israeli targets.

• Nabil Sahrawi, the new leader of the GSPC, has an interview with the Arab daily al-Hayat that MEMRI has been kind enough to translate for us.

• The US is dispatching an anti-terrorist team to West Africa in response to what appears to be an active al-Qaeda presence in the region in conjunction with their Algerian affiliates.

• Saudi Arabia is acknowledging that al-Qaeda has infiltrated the Saudi National Guard, which is responsible for, among other things, the protection of the 6,000 or so members of the al-Saud family. The Saudi daily Okaz is also making what appears to be a veiled threat against the US in response to recent remarks by Rumsfeld advisor Richard Perle.

• Israel and Turkey are joining forces in order to hunt down the al-Qaeda cell that perpetrated the bombings in Istanbul back in November.

• French authorities are said to have thwarted a chemical weapons attack by al-Qaeda to attack Russian interests in France.

• We try to end on a lighter note if possible. Former Iraqi information minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf is, at long last, back on the air where he belongs ...