Here's one from John Paczkowski of the San Jose Mercury:
"A study published Monday confirms what anyone who isn't somehow affiliated with the Recording Industry Association of America has long known: File sharing is not the major cause of declining music sales over the past few years. According to the study -- which tracked music downloads over 17 weeks in 2002, comparing data on file transfers with actual market performance of the songs being downloaded -- the overall impact of file sharing on sales was almost imperceptible:
"File sharing has no statistically significant effect on purchases of the average album in our sample," the study's authors wrote. "Moreover, the estimates are of rather modest size when compared to the drastic reduction in sales in the music industry. At most, file sharing can explain a tiny fraction of this decline." You see, it takes 5000 downloads to reduce CD sales by just a single disc. So if file-sharing was the leading cause the recording industry's misfortune, CD sales in the states would have fallen by two million copies between 2000 and 2002. In truth, they fell by 139 million.
So how do we explain that other 137 million? Just the way you'd expect: Lousy macroeconomic conditions, limited music variety, a reduction in the number of album releases, and increased competition from other forms of entertainment such as video games and DVDs. The study's findings should have proven humbling to the RIAA, which has long argued that file sharing is largely responsible for the decline in music sales. But of course it didn't. The group dismissed the study, noting that it was inconsistent with the spin of its own, ahem, scientifically rigorous studies. Said RIAA spokeswoman Amy Weiss: "Our own surveys show that those who are downloading more are buying less."
In other news, tobacco industry surveys show that their product is not addictive.
I think file sharing should be legal as a concession to reality. Legal rights don't exist independently of their technological environment. I am a Marxist, you know ;-)
However, I am skeptical of reports that say that file sharing doesn't affect CD sales. I know many people who no longer buy CDs ever (or almost ever) because they can download them. You'd have to prove that these people are not telling the truth or are offset by greater purchases from others. That's counterintuitive to me.
Of course, another reason for the decline in sales might be there isn't much worth buying. Does higher compensation incentivize good music? More music, I'd believe. But more good music? Show me the evidence.
I download occisonally, but I prefer CD's as I find the sound quality higher.
Maybe it'd be different if I had state of the art PC setup, but I doubt it.
But - I won't buy CD's at full retail price (UK £16 = US $29); I look for discounts. If they ceased to be available, I might turn to downloading.
Also, our high street no longer has a record shop, so it's local Woolworths or supermarkets, neither with extensive ranges, or purchase online, or buy when I go shopping in the city.
The combination means browsing and impulse buying has dropped off a lot, I suspect this is true for other people too.
The music business is pushing overpriced product, sales in high street retailers (less able to discount)fall off, many go out of business, and sales spiral down even more. More people with less mainstream pop tastes turn to online retail and auditioning, and may be more likely to download. But above all, it's more difficult to encounter a wide range of music without trying.
Meanwhile, the sector of the market that is holding up in premium price sales, the "early teen pop" of boy bands, Britney, pop idol etc. is dependent on massive PR budgets, and unable to generate long term sales among adult purchasers. Also, these buyers are unlikely to want or afford anything but the latest release of the artists currently in favour.
Most artists in this sector have a sales window of around five years max.
They need to cut costs, cut prices, and look for long-term potential, stop spending gazillions on no-hopers, and try to make the product more available. It's never going to be back to the revenues (and salaries and perks) of the peak decades, but they might salvage something.
Gabriel,
It's not that the people you describe don't exist... it's that they're counterbalanced by others who expand their musical horizons, try more things, and so end up buying CDs they wouldn't have otherwise. This, too, is an intuitive consequence, and I fall into this category myself.
If people like me counterbalance people like your friends, zero net effect or close to it.
id be really happy to see the formation of a digital rights 527 organization to hold the ass of our representatives and of the music industry to the fire while promoting studies like this one, and plans for legal solutions like the eff proposal.
I agree that the main problem is crappy records. If you guys new half the stories i know about the record industry youd puke all over your White album. The record companies are probably the worst run industy on the planet. Thats why theyre hemoraging money. That has the opportunity to jump on board the internet thing years ago and pioneer a new market, but all they could see was a treat to their little hegemony. They are dead, but they dont know it yet. You dont need a record advance to make an album anymore, you dont need their distrubution to sell them. The only thing they have left is their incestuous choke hold on radio, and satellite radio will eventually shatter that. If you have stock in Sony or WBs, be careful. They are busy selling buggy whips.
Ughh, dont know whats wrong with my spelling today. Sorry. Im a native English speaker, I swear!
Mark Buehner:
Im a native English speaker, I swear!
Based on your bad spelling I'd always assumed you were an American. ;)
No matter how you want to slice it, organized downloading of music or films or books, free of charge, is theft.
How does it take 5000 downloads to reduce CD sales by a single disk? Aren't too many CDs with 5000 songs on them...
As a songwriter (here, try my stuff! http://www.chicagosongwriters.com/marlonstjohn.html), I agree thoroughly with Mark B. Common business practices within the music industry has forced many artists to take matters in their own hands and the DIY business is creating a small, but growing revolution.
However, as hard drives are getting bigger and cable modem users expand, it is only a short amount of time until the motion picture industry and the publishing industry face real P2P piracy problems. The right of individuals to own their intellectual property is the only personal right guaranteed in the main body of the constitution (Art. 1, Sec. 8) and current law is badly out of date. Doing nothing is not really an option. Artists have every right to be screwed as much as they have always been. Let's figure out a way.
Re: downloads... I've introduced a couple of people to the concept recently, and had a few months to see the results.
In both cases, they have downloaded many, many songs. In both cases, the number of CDs they bought also went up.
It's simple: many of the songs they downloaded were NOT materials they would otherwise have bought without the downloading. So the record companies didn't really lose anything from those downloads because all it did was push the supply curve down without changing the demand.
On the other hand, the increased exploration generated by free music DID push the demand curve up, by broadening their horizons and making them want more stuff from certain artists. Including artists not in mainstream play at the moment or whose catalogs are/were semi-retired (run a Google search on "Eva Cassidy" for one such beneficiary). This phenomenon also has a viral effect as they play stuff for their friends and share it.
I've also noticed that this exploration turns them on more to music in general, and makes it a bigger part of their life.
Against that, we have to balance the fact that some materials are downloaded that would have been bought, and set that against the positive effects.
It is conceivable to me that the net effect of all this could be positive.
shadows fall!!!!!!!!1