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Europe: Spain's Oncoming Depression, Ireland's Banks

| 2 Comments

We'll start with Spain. From The Telegraph:

"The Madrid research group RR de Acuña & Asociados said the collapse of Spain's building industry will cause the economy to contract for the next three years, with a peak to trough loss of over 11pc of GDP. The grim forecast is starkly at odds with claims by premier Jose Luis Zapatero.... RR de Acuña said the overhang of unsold properties on the market, or still being built, has reached 1,623,000. This dwarfs annual demand of 218,000, and will take six or seven years to clear. The group said Spain's unemployment will peak at around 25pc, comparable to the worst chapter of the Great Depression.... Separately, UBS said unemployment will reach 4.8m and may go as high as 5.4m if the job purge in the service sector gathers pace....Roberto Ruiz, the bank's Spain strategist.... said the construction sector will shrink from 18pc of GDP at the peak of the boom to around 5pc, making it unlikely that there will be any significant recovery before 2012. Even then growth will be "slow, weak, and fragile". The Spanish government can do little to cushion the downturn....

"The root cause of Spain's trouble is that it joined monetary union before its economy was ready. EMU halved Spanish interest rates almost overnight. Real rates were minus 2pc for much of this decade. Combined private and corporate debt reached 230pc of GDP, funded by French and German savings. The credit boom masked a steady decline in productivity over the last decade. Spain's unit labour costs have risen by about 30pc compared to Germany. The Bank of Spain made heroic efforts to counter the effects of the bubble by forcing banks to put aside extra reserves, known as dynamic provisioning, but the sheer scale of the problem has washed over the defences. Spain no longer has the escape valve of devaluation to claw back market share. It cannot resort to emergency monetary stimulus - as Switzerland, Britain, the US, and Japan are doing to prevent the onset of debt deflation. Prices are already falling at a rate of 1.2pc."

Ow. Sorry to see it happen to Spain. Not at all sorry to see it happen to Zapatero and his cronies. Meanwhile, in Ireland, they're taking a different approach to their banking crisis. Is it better? Not sure, but I'll throw it out there...

Ireland's approach to their bank bailout recently got coverage from Bloomberg and The American.

The basic concept is that toxic mortgages will be bought from banks outright. Not at the banks' own valuation, but not at the bottom mark-to-market rate either. Last week, Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announced that a special agency would buy EUR 77 billion ($113 billion, bank valuation) of assets from 5 lenders at about 70% of the assets' carrying value based on independent valuations of legacy loans, paying about EUR 54 billions. Mark to market value if banks tried to sell them on the market is estimated at around EUR 47 billion. So the banks take a 30% penalty to their books, which is sharp but not bankrupting, and the government owns the assets. The transaction is paid for with government-backed bonds, and banks who wish/need to do so can pledge the bonds to the European Central Bank in return for cash.

There are some attractive features to that, and it does acknowledge the lessons of recent Latin American and Japanese crises, which is that allowing toxic debt to sit on financial institutions' books impairs capital markets, can strangle recoveries, and has led to "lost decades."

Now, here's the catch in the room. If property values over the next 10 years rise from their current spot by a total of 10% or so, or just under 1% per year on average, the plan breaks even. If they don't, or in fact continue to fall due to a widespread foreclosure/ ghost town new-builds glut and/or over-valuation in the market, then the Irish government is about to take a big bath. Bloomberg's David Reilly:

"Recapitalizations that make creditors and shareholders share in the pain, such as debt-for-equity swaps, should be an option. Ireland, like other countries, has to get over the notion that creditors are a sacred group who must be spared at all costs. At the very least, the government shouldn't ask taxpayers to wager so much on the hope that things will stop getting worse."

I pretty much agree with that. But creditors aren't the only group who can't be sacred cows. Which is why I generally agree with the broad thrust of this New Republic piece, which looks at the issue of senior bankers' compensation and treatment in these situations through a useful lens:

What happens to people like this in other bankruptcy-type proceedings? And the answer is, they don't do nearly as well on a personal level as the bankers have.

But then, they probably don't give as much, in personal financial contributions, to the people who are running the bankruptcy and setting terms. It's good to be the government.

2 Comments

I disagree. The root cause of Spanish problems, not only economic, but also terrorism, is the oligarchy.

Joining the Euro was what Aznar had to do. The maquila concept of our economy, probably designed in 1973, had been left outdated by the global free trade agreements: Spain could no longer be the "Mexico" of the EU because the Asian countries (or simply Turkey) would produce those goods cheaper.

The Spanish - I think the WSJ called it "close knitted" - economic class accepted it, although there wasn't in its plans (there wasn't in the plans of the Italians either). Then they embarked in two (2) bubbles, fueled, true, by the low interest rates of the European Central Bank (ECB), but they also grew in the highly regulated environment of the Spanish laws in those areas: the real estate and the green energy bubbles.

Spanish firms produce advantageously for French supermarkets, for instance, processed food, since here there are neither exchange fees nor strikes. The problem isn't the Euro: Aznar did what was his responsibility, to push ahead. However, a few did not want to be pushed further.

I mean, the actual credit crisis is a problem artificially exacerbated with the consent of a great percentage of the population, that was making returns of 25% annualy.

Beyond that, please take into account that, as I think everything in Spain, figures should be taken carefully. My estimation is that there are more than 6 million empty homes in Spain.

Unemployment again has to be taken carefully. It is a complicated matter, but many Spaniards simply don't declare they are working. One of the achievements of Aznar's administrations was to recover the trust in the government, which allowed many of such people to go "legal", letting enjoy them some benefits such as social security. Now with rising costs and taxes many go "grey" again.

Families have their impact too: many work for other family members in a natural structure of self defence. All that may explain how Spain is able to support such scaring unemployment figures.

Useful background, thanks.

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