Some remarkable words from Fouad Ajami:
"George W. Bush has unleashed a tsunami on this region," a shrewd Kuwaiti merchant who knows the way of his world said to me. The man had no patience with the standard refrain that Arab reform had to come from within, that a foreign power cannot alter the age-old ways of the Arabs. "Everything here - the borders of these states, the oil explorations that remade the life of this world, the political outcomes that favored the elites now in the saddle - came from the outside. This moment of possibility for the Arabs is no exception." A Jordanian of deep political experience at the highest reaches of Arab political life had no doubt as to why history suddenly broke in Lebanon, and could conceivably change in Syria itself before long. "The people in the streets of Beirut knew that no second Hama is possible; they knew that the rulers were under the gaze of American power, and knew that Bush would not permit a massive crackdown by the men in Damascus..."
...To venture into the Arab world, as I did recently over four weeks in Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq, is to travel into Bush Country.
I was to encounter people from practically all Arab lands, to listen in on a great debate about the possibility of freedom and liberty. I met Lebanese giddy with the Cedar Revolution that liberated their country from the Syrian prison that had seemed an unalterable curse. They were under no illusions about the change that had come their way. They knew that this new history was the gift of an American president who had put the Syrian rulers on notice. The speed with which Syria quit Lebanon was astonishing, a race to the border to forestall an American strike that the regime could not discount. I met Syrians in the know who admitted that the fear of American power, and the example of American forces flushing Saddam Hussein out of his spider hole, now drive Syrian policy. They hang on George Bush's words in Damascus, I was told: the rulers wondering if Iraq was a crystal ball in which they could glimpse their future."
Maybe. The Cedar Revolution is beginning to seep into Syria, if you read Michael Totten. In the WSJ, Ajami adds more useful perspectives, and also an important caution via his invocation of Europe's 1848 revolutions. Read it, then compare it to:
- Steven Den Beste's magisterial Strategic Overview of the war, its root causes, and our course in July 2003. After almost 2 years, it still holds up awfully well.
- Winds' article Yalta, Freedom & The Future, setting The Bush Doctrine in context and explaining its foundations and implications.
- 3 Touchstones, 3 Conjectures... which covers what happens if we fail.
Very perceptive comment about all the 'outside' influences that have shaped the middle east to date. What I truly don't see is, what we're doing putting so much of our resources into shaping this part of the world when we have so much need at home?
Today we see Syria cutting ties to us in several areas altogether
Is this really in our best interests?
Ruth, still in the pre 911 reality eh ?
What descibes that position, the word obtuse or denial ?
As for needs at home, yes we need to shrink govt and lower taxes some more, but that will have to wait.
And if the US was not so apathetic when the Soviet Union collapsed or gotten off our asses to keep tabs on the nuclear arsenals we would NOT BE FACING this type of nuclear proliferation threat as we are today...
AND are ignoring.
Bush went at this whole thing ass backwards...
Korea
then Afghanistan
then the useless turd Hussein in Iraq
because then he would have been in a much better position to deal with China and Iran and Syria.
Gee, thanks for bringing on the collapse of America George, your moron.
Ruth,
Comes a point when someone who's double-dealing you needs to be cut off. Syria's cooperation in other areas, however valuable was [a] outweighed by their support of the Ba'athists and al-Qaedists in Iraq, which they would not stop despite repeated requests; and [b] purchased at the price of some level of collusion with a pretty nasty dictatorship. Click on that "Hama" link up above, and you'll see what I mean. Or Google "Arar".
As lurker points out, this has been Syria's poor choice, at the end of a long line of poor choices. Which is a pretty tame euphemism for what we're really talking about. Try this:
They're mudering bastards who've been working to spread repression and terrorism in the region, and the net value of their cooperation, relationship, or much of anything else was always a thin proposition. It has now gone from thin to negative, and if they want to cut ties, I don't see why you'd miss 'em.
If Syria's leadership has something important to say to the USA, or something worthwhile to offer, they'll do it via 3rd-party embassies without trouble. That's the standard diplomatic option.
If they don't, then let's all stop pretending.
The North Korean problem will not be solved unitl China wants it to be solved. China is propping up the regime, thus shielding it from external and internal pressure. I expect nothing to change until the spectre or nuclear armed Japan and Taiwan starts scaring them a little.
The Nork's lso have an ace in the hole, independent of nukes, that Saddam never had. They hold a sledgehammer over Seoul. It is within their power to utterly destroy this city with an estimated 10,000 artillery tubes all in hardened locations.
If you have a better North Korean plan than the administration, then we'd like to hear it. And please spare us the calls for bilateral talks. China is the real power that must be dealt with, not their client.
The important communications with Syria are not flowing through diplomatic channels, but between U.S. and Syrian military officers at lower levels. The irony here might be that the despot does not have sufficient control over his military to sever those relations. Notice that the links were severed 10 days ago unbeknownst to Senior US military officials. Communications that Gen. Conway characterized earlier this month as fairly routine.
So this sabre-rattling may be all sound and fury, or it might be a warning shot directed at Syrian military officials getting too cozy with the U.S. If I was Assad I would be more nervous about my military than any purported anti-Syrian propogranda.
Bryan and Ruth:
What is the Prime Directive?
To provide for the common defense.
I really think that says it all.
GW was fairly elected under our system, and he gets to make the call what the common defense is, and against what.
That is the first line item in his job description.
PD Shaw, very good and interesting points.
Jinn, the President gets to make the first call; that has always been an executive branch decision. But it isn't the only call, or even the final one.
As a complete aside - if Star Trek had your Prime Directive instead, I might have watched more (contrast with B5).
Yeah, its a good thing W dont take advice from the Byrons of the earth.
The last time an american army was in North Korea, McAuthur found himself fighting the Chinese army and asking about adding nukes to his ammunition selection, we where able to beat and depose the chicoms at the time, but did we really want to take responsibility for China ?
China looks like it is changing over time, Capitalist Roader Deng was far better than Cultural revolution Mao, and the new wealthy class of China cant be fans of the Laogai, Chinas version of the Gulag.
Evolution instead of revolution, its a laudable idea.
And with the democratic waves rippling thru the region due to our work in Iraq, its a horrific blow to the future of terrorism, as a strike agaist terror, dealing with Iraq is proving its merit beyond any hope of the moonbats breaking their perfect 70+ year record of being wrong.
Ruth, I only have one thing to add to what Joe and Jinnderella have said. Keep in mind the resources we have depend on oil flowing from that region of the world. It's easy to chant "no blood for oil." It would be less easy to live through an economic collapse caused by a cutoff or even a temporary interruption of the flow of oil from the ME. I'd go as far as to say devoting resources to civilizing that part of the world is worthwhile to prevent old people and poor children who cannot afford expensive energy (or who have no energy available) from freezing in winter in the North or dying from heat exhaustion in summer in the South.
It amazes me that a person so willing to call the president a moron could have such horrendous punctuation. There's just something disingenuous about chiding lectures that couldn't pass a spell check.
Incidentally, while I'm nervous about the Lebanese opposition co-opting Hezbollah, I'm far more optimistic about Lebanon's future than I was a few months ago.
It's great that Syria's Old Regime will fall soon. I think Condi is doing a lot of good work behind the scenery. There is still very much to do, it's just the beginning. But now there is hope.
The politics of transformation is not without risk. You have a attack on the Status Quo. There may be moments of instability, perhaps of violence. But the alternative - more of 9/11 - is worse.
I hope that Europe will join soon. France and other European governments are still important players in the region. And Europe has every interest to become a part of the solution. I think Schröder will fall in septembre, and Merkel will follow, and Chirac might fall with the French "Non".
Than we will have a much better chance to collaborate - that will make things much easier.
Ulrich, watching the German election results, it seems it isnt just the Baath Socialist days that might be numbered, but a certain German Socialist as well. who, btw, says worse things about the USA than what comes out of Damascus.
Its been hard to take when our supposed Friends have worse things to say than our enemies, Perhaps the only leader on the planet that trashed America worse by mouth is Kim Jong II and Hugo Chavez, and im not quite Certain about the "Dear Leader".
McAuthur found himself fighting the Chinese army and asking about adding nukes to his ammunition selection, we where able to beat and depose the chicoms at the time, but did we really want to take responsibility for China ?
I assume that you mean with nukes because it is quite obvious that we couldn't without nukes. So how many nukes did the US have at that moment in time (a few dozen) Would the USSR use them too? Would Japan still be on our side (most likely they would do a finland) Would a few dozen of oblivorated Chinese cities be enough to stop the Chinese and give themself up(i don't think so).
The Europeans want a different solution than the Americans. For America it is important that the region keeps exporting oil. For Europe that it is stable. A democratic Middle East is very likely to use the oil weapon but it would be stable (though for the next 20 years very religious) This is why any talk from the USA that they want a democratic and free Middle East is such a complete joke.
Ohh Ulrich,
Name one unkind word Bush has directed To any German or Frenchman, not a single unkind word, The only thing he has ever said even referencing contention is "We Disagree"
But then again, Bush has Class and Character.
Ive read a better tone from the leader of the FDP Chairman Guido Westerwelle, who recently defended us against the NAZI era depictions, But i dont have any quotes from a leader of the CDU, I hope they sound kinder than politburo Primer Schroeder.
A #16
We agree here, we was looking at all those things, which also puts Yalta back in some context.
Yalta was a horrific deal for those that suffered under the leftist boot, but thats a different consideration apart from our ability, and the remaining will, to do anything about it.
A #17 off you go into la la land again, touting the line of Eurosocialist creaps, (who lack both Character and Class, big surprise) about some supposed "Stability" of the middle east. that if it existed, wasnt the ME region that shares our particualar dimension.
I suppose the two attacks on the WTC are evidence of that stability, or that the Muslims in Indonisa hack up Christians because of their support of the Jews, or attack School Kids, gun them down and rape them in Beslan due to their support of the Jews and interference with the Middle east, or the Muslims attacking Hindus in India because they support the Jews and meddle in the Middle east or that the Muslim Sudanese are commiting Genocide on the Black Christians of the Sudan because they support the Jews and meddle in the middle east.
Perhaps it was the Stability of mass graves of kids and crushing their feet in front of parents and using them for sex toys and live tiger food, while you send your UN-Socialist kickbacks and bribes for palaces and french Roland missles while you save up those you raped to death as a show parade about the injustice of the sacntions scheme that made leftist weisels rich all over Europe.
Ans while you sent money to fund terrorits bombers to kill Jews, Including big rewards to the parents of child bombers targeting school busses full of 9 year old Jews.
Wonder what the lebonese thought of your stability.
And funny, seem the majority of the people of Iraq wasnt so fond of Stability.
While the democraps still complained about the inability to commit enough vote fraud and lines that was too long, Iraq Women and men braved direct threat of death.
Bzzzt, Reality check.
Well unless you dont mean this reality, But I dont know where your dimensional portal is, so perhaps you can point it out for me, so that I can check out if your typical leftist sounding perceptions agrees with those facts that exist there.
They damn sure dont exist here.
Course, I might have misread you, I did not detect the true and proper disdain loathing and contempt deserved by those Eurosocialist creaps, its was if you sullied yourself by agreeing with them.
to Wit:
A typical charge made by the moonbats.
If I misread your intent, I will stand corrected.
Indonesia isn't exactly in the Middle East. Nor are India and Beslan. But those problems have little to do with religion and a lot to do with etnicity. Also there is no genocide on black Christians in the Sudan but on black Muslims but i doubt you would care.
Lebanon had that trouble because Muslims (especially Shiite) wanted a fairer share of the power and the Marons didn't want to give it to them.
Iraqi's are not that fond of the bringer of the instability. Wonder why. Maybe because their objectives are so radicaly different from those of the US
So ? and that refutes .... what?
Look out below, lead ballon ...
Bq. But those problems have little to do with religion and a lot to do with etnicity.
Says who ? based on what ?
India and Pakistan for example are you forgetting where those two populations came from ?
And have we have found Muslim Terrorists include secular recruits in their ranks? even one exception to the reality that is otherwise ?
So American the refugee from nutbar central California opon converting to Islam went off and joined His "ethinc" kindred in afganistan, and I suppose the racial mix of inport Jihadies that include the full range from Asians to Black Africans is the special "ethnic diversity" unit.
Where does your head pick up the idea that you can foist such easily disproven patently false garbage assertions ?
It was The Christian NGOs that held up Slavery and Genocide in the sudan 2 years before it ever touched a TV media screen, your clearly too new to this subject, again you are reality inverted here.
The Sudanese targets of the genicide are Black Christians Two Words
in google and presto, do you just make crap up on the spot ? you would be better at it if you tested this crap on google before you try to pass that crap past us. Just a Suggestion.
Reality check again, Since when have militant Muslims ever expressed a desire or plan for anything remotely close to shared power.
Its the non militant folk in Iraq we are giving a chance to. those carrying a gun in the streets in Iraq, from the alsadrs to the Jihadies dont seem to grok this "shared power" concept.
Thankfully, they are not a majority, they hardly ever are, where they rule, the majority lives under them in fear and intimidation, something we are replacing in Iraq.
Lebanon had a Christian population that rejected Sharia Law, the protest babes I saw there didnt wear the habib or the Burka, perhaps you noticed that.
Again. where is that other worldly fake crap invented, you pay for this crap or you create it yourself?
Well since the majority of Iraq from the blogs, right down to polls taken by those no friend of Bush, directly prove you false, again, you make this shit up ?
Thats a really secure reality rejecting defense screen your sporting there, is it a state of mind or a device real or imaginary, like your crackpot theories.
Common man, the last was insulting both to you and to me.
Do better next time eh ?
Raymond,
Outstanding!
Must agree. Raymond's best comment ever. I actually read it based on M. Simon's accolade.
Perhaps you should concentrate on the 'fisking' format from now on Raymond. And to the think the word left or lefist only appeared once in the your last two comments. Keep that up and I'll have to read more of your stuff!
"The irony here might be that the despot does not have sufficient control over his military to sever those relations. Notice that the links were severed 10 days ago unbeknownst to Senior US military officials. "
JK, PDShaw, as noted, excellent point. In a way, its best we don't have any more close knowledge of the Middle East, it's much too twisted.
Resources relying so totally on oil hardly is a basis of comfort. Our efforts to release ourselves from overreliance on that oil are promising to a greater degree than the present state of electoral politics in the middle eastern countries that are getting into the political realm. Hamas seems to be a major beneficiary in Lebanon, the religious right in Iran.
And a, you are I think overly pessimistic about Europe's basic commitment, don't you think it's based more on disappointing experience than real goals? I do.
Here's a promising development (ever the Polyanna), Switzerland is doing us signal service in freezing monies detected to be flowing to al Qaeda. See: http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/003200505241423.htm
Ruth, I agree that we should be doing much more to reduce our dependence on ME oil. However, for the foreseeable future we are dependent on it. We've tried supporting dictatorships. It got us 911. Now we're trying something different. It may not work. If not, we'll try something else (and no, I have no idea what). But rightly or wrongly; good, bad, or indifferent, our econonomy and the world's for the time being need that oil.
Raymond - your last couple are pretty decent rants that push the limits a bit but aren't overlong. And your arguments and posts are improving over time re: focus and addressing others' points.
But do cut down on the swearing... if used regularly, it may be seen as a substitute for being able to express oneself more intelligently.
Fred: Yes, we are overly dependent on petroleum products, but think how far we could progress toward freeing ourselves from that dependence if we spent our billions on development of other sources instead of a war to keep dependence.
By the way, the administration is working in that direction too, 'bout time! From Yahoo: "But with the cost of hydrogen double that of premium gasoline, even the president acknowledged that seeing today's children take their driver's tests in pollution-free cars is a long-term goal."
See: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/bush_energy
Ruth, I see it less as a war to maintain our dependence than a war to stay alive until we can figure out a way out of that dependence. If I'm swinging from tree to tree and I let go of one vine while the next is still out of reach, I'm going to fall.
>This is why any talk from the USA that they
>want a democratic and free Middle East is such
>a complete joke.
This shows someone here isn't a functional democrat or economist.
A 'major percentage of the GDP' oil producing democracy can't use oil as a weapon like Middle Eastern Tyranny can because too many of the voting public has an interest in a steady oil income. The USA is too big a customer for the Democracy to use the oil weapon if it impacts the voting public.
See the Chavez example in Venezuela in other threads..