The War in Lebanon

• Israel is preparing for a major ground offensive against Hezbollah, and will soon call up thousands of reservists.

• Even now, however, thousands of Israeli troops are operating inside southern Lebanon. As Bill Roggio notes, they are encountering effective resistance from Hezbollah forces just inside the border. Note: thus far, ground operations inside Lebanon have been led mostly by special forces. Roggio's article is worth reading in full for a look at the problems Israel (and everyone else) faces in Hezbollah.

• Lebanon's Defence Minister says that, if Israel invades, the Lebanese Army will fight alongside Hezbollah. The army numbers around 70,000 at most, but lacks modern equipment. However, Lebanese radar did assist in a Hezbollah/Iranian missile attack on an Israeli warship.

• A remarkable inside-look at the firing of an Iranian-made C-802 anti-ship missile at an Israeli warship. Fortunately, the missile struck a glancing blow, bouncing off the helicopter deck before it could detonate. Four Israeli soldiers died in the attack.

• Israel says it has bombed Hezbollah money caches, in Bint Jbeil, Nabatiyeh, Baalbek and the Tyre area.

• The IDF says it has thwarted attempts by Syria to move rockets in to Lebanon, but that other efforts they are unaware of have probably succeeded. They also noted that the rockets and arms are Syrian Army property.

• Leaflets dropped on southern Lebanon have told residents to head north of the Litani river (20 miles from the border), but the IDF is reporting that Hezbollah is refusing to let civilians leave.

• Early in the week, an Israeli attempt to decapitate Hezbollah apparently failed. The IAF dropped 23 tons of bombs on a bunker in southern Beirut, but Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claims no leaders were killed.

• Olivier Guitta has a list of seven important points concerning the current hostilities that have mostly been overlooked. They include Iran's involvement in training Hezbollah, the use by Hezbollah of non-Shia villages as bases and the length of time spent preparing the attack: five months. Iran's involvement almost certainly goes beyond training; one Arab diplomat reckons there are hundreds of IRGC fighting in Lebanon.

• An Israeli minister says that Hezbollah capabilites have been impaired by 50%. Nasrallah denies it.

• Following Hezbollah threats to strike Tel Aviv, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations said Syria and Iran would face 'doomsday' in the event of such an attack. The same day, Iran's Ahmadinejad says that Muslims will 'rejoice' soon enough.

• Lebanon's prime minister Fuad Siniora told Italy's Corriere della Sera newspaper that the international community must help Lebanon disarm Hezbollah. In surprisingly blunt terms, he said: 'Hezbollah has become a state within a state. We are well aware of this and it is a serious problem. It's no secret that Hezbollah follows the political agendas of Damascus and Tehran'. Perhaps it isn't surprising that he was misquoted. The PM's office now says disarming Hezbollah is contingent on Israel withdrawing from the Sheba Farms district, a tiny strip of land ruled by the United Nations as Syrian territory occupied by Israel.

• Hezbollah kidnapped two British jounralists in Beirut, but local police freed them.

• A Lebanese opposition group says Lebanese politicians have recieved threats from Hezbollah, demanding they speak up for them.

• Indonesia has pledged to send 450 troops to act as a buffer force in southern Lebanon. Other Indonesians are planning to join Hezbollah against Israel. The Islamic Youth Movement says 217 jihadists from across southeast Asia are on their way - more information on them here.

• For now, Javier Solana is still not convinced that Hezbollah is a terrorist group. Further information and analysis on that topic here.

• Casualties at the time of writing: ~330 Lebanese and 30-35 Israeli dead. If anyone knows of any reputable sources concerning Hezbollah's losses, please post them in the comments.

Iran

• Iranian Hezbollah says it is planning to attack American and Israeli interests all over the world if the Iranian mullahs approve.

• Several Iranian dissidents have turned down an invitation from the White House to meet with senior advisors to President Bush. Those interviewed apparently did not want to involve a foreign government in an Iranian matter.

• Ahmadinejad has sent a letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a letter one official described as 'rather weird'. The letter makes no mention of Iran's nuclear program, nor does it criticise Germany, but asks for Germany's help in dealing with Zionism.

• The Iranian chief negotiator has again refused to back down from plans to produce nuclear fuel. However, a few days ago, Iran said it was willing to hold talks based on the Western incentives package. (The day before, they weren't willing to talk based on the incentives...)

• A spokesman from the Iranian Glory of Martyrs of the International Movement says they have dispatched 27 suicide bombers to Lebanon to fight against Israel. The group claims to have 55,000 volunteers, but apparently only 27 speak Arabic well enough to blow themselves up.

The Middle East

• Debka reports that Jordanian military intelligence warned the Israeli government of an impending Hamas attack eminating from Jordan. The Jordanians said a Hamas suicide team had been recruited inside the Kingdom, and were planning to attack Israelis just inside the Jordan-Israel border.

• Egypt and Hamas have resumed negotiations designed to secure the release of kidnapped Israeli solder Gilad Shalit. Mahmoud Abbas has emphasised to Hamas the importance of not creating a perception of similarity or cooperation with Hezbollah.

• Israeli police caught a suicide bomber in Jerusalem during a security check. Another suicide bomber was caught in central Israel.

Iraq and the Gulf

• The Iraqi PM Nuri Al Maliki says the government is discussing whether to kick the MEK out of the country. The People’s Mujahedeen of Iran are considered terrorists in America and Europe.

• Sunni-Shia fighting (or, almost entirely, murder) has killed perhaps as many as 10,000 Iraqis in the last three months. Fortunately, the Shia dominated government is cracking down on Shia death squads. For now, though, the Sunni leadership isn't fulfilling their part of the bargain.

• A Saudi imam, considered a 'mainstream Wahhabi', has issued a fatwa forbidding Sunni Muslims to support, join or pray for Hezbollah. Sheik Hamid al-Ali also condemned Iran's regional ambitions, citing Hezbollah activities as an example.

• Al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia has announced that the al-Basha’er group has merged with them. Al-Basha’er is an information organisation with similar goals to al-Qaeda.

• The U.S. is providing Saddam Hussein with psychiatric counselling to convince him to start eating. Saddam has been on a hunger strike for 12 days

• Having noticed the negative PR in slaughtering Muslims in Iraq, and the outrage following attempts to drive Westerners out of KSA (which would damage the economy), al-Qaeda - or what remains of it - in Saudi Arabia has apparently decided to go after the House of Saud itself.

• The Kuwaiti News Agency claims that the Secretary General of the Badr organisation in Iraq was murdered on Tuesday, but I've seen no confirmation from other news sites or Iraqi blogs.

• Forces in Iraq have arrested four al-Qaeda members and killed a fifth. The men were involved in various suicide bombings and attacks, including a recent bombing in Sadr City in Baghdad.

• The Pentagon has approved a massive arms sale to Saudi Arabia. The $6bn deal includes 24 UH-60L Blackhawks, radios and armoured vehicles.

The Americas

• The FBI is still hunting for Hezbollah terrorists inside the United States, due to concerns that Iran-U.S. tensions might prompt Iran to order attacks in the U.S. The Feds say there is no intelligence of an impending attack or plot at this time. The Counterterrorism Blog has a great refernce guide to Hezbollah activity in North America in recent years.

• Homeland Security is investigating the origins of a large floating pipe-bomb found in Lake Pontchartrain, north of New Orleans. Investigators are concerned the bomb may have been a test-run for a larger bomb designed to take down one of the bridges over the Mississippi.

• Two U.S. citizens have been indicted for planning to partake in 'violent jihad'. Both men are accused of training in paramilitary camps in northwest Georgia (FYI: the Pankisi Gorge is in northeast Georgia). They made contact with Canadian jihadis, and filmed potential targets inside the United States.

• The U.S. is still concerned about the development of armed radical Muslim groups in rural America. Jamaat al-Fuqra is of particular interest, presumably in part because of their connection with the Beltway snipers.

• A British court has heard how Canadian citizen Momin Khawaja was found in possession of various jihad manuals, weapons and ammunition in a raid of his Ottawa home in March 2004. Khawaja is believed to have conspired with seven alleged terrorists in the UK to build bombs for attacks in Britain, and to have built the remote-control detonators. He will be charged under Canada's Anti-terrorism Act.

• Chavez's revolutionary forces are turning their guns on each other.

• Colombian FARC narcoterrorists have murdered 10 civilians and kidnapped as many as 170 people. Reuters posits that the attack was a show of force ahead of conservative President Alvaro Uribe's second term begins in August.

Europe

• German and French authorities are also on the lookout for Hezbollah cells planning strikes in their cities. France has previously been attacked by Iranian agents in 1986, a campaign which killed 13 and wounded hundreds. Douglas Farah raises the possibility of Iran igniting another war in Bosnia, noting Iran's intelligence apparatus there, the retired jihadis and the much-reduced Western presence.

• Norweigan authorities are beginning deportations of some 400 Iraqis whose asylum applications have been rejected. Not amongst them is Mullah Krekar, a 'former' member of Ansar al-Islam. Krekar was also allegedly a target for rendition, courtesy of the CIA. A Norweigan paper reported that CIA agents, including two wanted in Italy for involvement in the kidnapping of Abu Omar, were present in Norway in 2003.

• The head of Greek terrorist group November 17 has been paroled after serving four years in prison. Nikos Papanastasiou founded the group that murdered 23 people between 1975-2000.

• Finally, Al-Ghurabaa and the Saved Sect have been banned in the U.K.. The jihadi groups have been outlawed due to their glorification of terrorism (a new offence). Other banned groups include the Baluchistan Liberation Army, and the PKK (under several names).

• The Washington Post has a good look at the increase in Islamic radical activity in Switzerland.

• Another web-jihadi, Syed Talha Ahsan, has been indicted on terrorism charges, including possession of a classified U.S. Navy document describing troop movements, facilitating housing for recruits and running website that collected and recruited for terrorism.

• A new poll has found that 40% of British Muslims blame 'Islamophobia' on media 'disinformation, while 74% of non-Muslims blame it on 9/11.

• A Baloch nationalist was assaulted while speaking in London, according to the Balochistan National Party. They claim a glass bottle of poisonous gas was thrown at him.

• Germany's population continues to shrink. Europe's economic powerhouse has the lowest birthrate on the continent, and deaths have exceeded births since 1990. Immigration compensated for this until 2003, when the population continued to fall in spite of it.

Russia and Central Asia

• The Georgian parliament has voted to replace Russian peacekeepers in the breakaway republic of South Ossetia with international forces. Russia's foreign minister says that Georgian conduct may spark a war, pointing to two detentions of a Russian embassy car in South Ossetia, a Russian soldier tripping a landmine supposedly planted by Georgian troops and the parliamentary vote. South Ossetia has warned that any Georgian 'aggression' will be met with a 'tough answer'.

• Shamil Basayev is officially dead, but his body hasn't yet been positively identified. Meanwhile, the Russians are celebrating what is clearly a serious blow to the Chechen movement, as well as the wider North Caucasus insurgency (never mind al-Qaeda). Russia is also planning another amnesty for members of Chechen armed groups. Some rebels are calling for a dialogue, but a newly-confident Russia wants absolute surrender.

• Kyrgyz Special Forces have arrested five Uzbeks accused of involvement in stirring up unrest in Uzbekistan last year. The Kyrgyz say the men are members of Akromiya, an Islamic radical group based in Uzbekistan and established by 23 Muslim businessmen. When the men escaped from prison last year, massive unrest culminated in the killing of hundreds of demonstrators by Uzbek police and soldiers.

• Afghanistan's president Hamid Karzai has approved a decree calling for a morality police force. The Afghan ulema council reportedly put pressure on Karzai to sign the proposal, which now faces a vote in the Afghan parliament.

• The Taliban's hold on two southern towns is temporary - U.S.-led forces are already planning to take them back.

• Kabul's new police chief is having some early successes. Amanullah Guzar was given the job during the riots in late May, and has moved quickly to improve security. An increase in night patrols and a curfew have all worked to calm the city, but his biggest achievement as police chief was the arrest of Qari Hakim Mullah, a terrorist responsible for several suicide attacks in the capital. He was found with weapons and IEDs last week.

• The Taliban's Great Summer Offensive has fizzled out. The jihadis are calling it a 'pause' - they want starvation to kick in in the south (where there has been a drought), and for Afghans to get wound up over Israel's war with Hezbollah. Then they will lead a popular uprising. A more likely explanation is that their IEDs aren't killing many soldiers, and their suicide bombings against Afghans are making them even less popular. Spotting parties of several hundred Taliban, then trapping and destroying them, is becoming a frequent NATO/Coalition habit.

• Police and squatters in Kazakhstan have erupted in violence. Rioters threw petrol bombs and stones at police, and took three officers hostage for several hours. Dozens of people were injured. Incidents of this sort are in Kazakhstan are rare, but opposition politicians say they are inevitable due to the government's stifling of dissent and refusal to tackle social problems.

• Kyrgyzstan is on the alert for Islamic terrorists planning revenge attacks, following the deaths of five alleged extremists killed in a gunbattle with police. The five had been suspected of killing a police officer and wounding three others, as well as involvement in other attacks.

Pakistan and the Indian Subcontinent

• Sri Lanka's government has altered rules of engagement for soldiers and police. They are now allowed to open fire on vehicles that fail to stop at checkpoints. Since December, fighting between the LTTE and Sri Lanka have left nearly 900 people dead. Reports suggest the Tamil Tigers are preparing for full-scale war.

• Pakistan has released 20 Algerians suspected of al-Qaeda links and sent them back to Algeria. The men were arrested in 2001 in the NWFP, and include Mehdi Rabah, former chief khateeb of Algeria.

• The leaders of the apparently defeated Balochistan Liberation Army will surrender to Pakistani forces today. Pakistani officials claim that Britain, India and the United States have tried to use the BLA to split their country. Two other BLA members were arresed Thursday.

• Maoist terrorists attacked a government camp in central India, killing 10 people, wounding 100 and perhaps kidnapping several more. The relief camp was built to protect locals from the 'rebel' campaign. After the attack, survivors lynched three suspected Maoist sympathisers.

• The Indian Air Force is concerned that Lashkar-e-Taiba may have infiltrated it.

• Taliban forces are increasing their control in south Waziristan, by taking control of the tribal jirga and demanding the adminstration stop collecting taxes.

• Jihadis in Kashmir have murdered five civilians in two incidents. Four were killed in an attack on a village, and the fifth had her throat cut on suspicion of working for Indian forces.

• Pakistani forces have arrested over 100 Taliban suspects in and around Quetta (provincial capital of Balochistan). Authorities said most of the 109 suspects are Afghan citizens.

• Six more JMB leaders have been sentenced to life in prison for involvement in the August 17 bombings last year. They were also fined ~$71 each.

Far East & South East Asia

• North Korea has launched a wartime alert, according to an anonymous South Korean official. Soldiers are being called back to their barracks, arms and vehicles are being camouflauged and people are not allowed to enter the countryside. The U.S.S. Enterprise is currently visiting South Korea.

• Japan is still preparing more sanctions against North Korea, following the recent missile tests. Ferries and flights from North Korea to Japan have already been halted, as have visits from North Korean officials. The latest sanctions are aimed at North Korea's financial assets.

• The Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao holds almost-monthly study sessions for the Politburo. Jamestown's analysis suggests these sessions give some idea of what Jintao's priorities are.

• Energy-hungry China is solidifying its hold on energy sources in Central Asia and the greater Caspian basin - buying up entire oil and gas fields for exclusive use in several countries. Jamestown has the details and recent developments.

• A planned meeting between Nepalese government and political party figures, and Maoist 'rebels', has been postponed due to the government side not having completed preparations.

• The U.S. and Japan are reportedly planning to deploy PAC-3 (Patriot) missile batteries in two U.S. bases in southern Japan by the end of the year. South Korea is also planning to develop a missile defence arm to protect the country from missles and artillery.

• Did the Chinese come out badly from the North Korean missile crisis? Jamestown's analysis says China refused to play tough with their angry little client state, and their billions in aid apparently do not buy the Chinese any leverage or consideration.

• Abu Sayyaf have carried out two attacks.(1.40.p.m.).html against Filipino police, leaving three dead, three wounded and two missing.

• Six people have been murdered in southern Thailand, including a retired policeman and a local Muslim. The condition of a teacher beaten in to a coma by Muslim villagers is said to have improved slightly.

Africa

• The seizure of Mogadishu port by the Islamic Courts will provide the jihadist group with a source of funds. The Courts will probably impose taxes on trade going in and out in the coming months. They will also be able to recieve arms shipments through the harbour. Unfortunately, Somalia's proximity to vital sea lanes makes all of this our problem.

• Somali Court militiamen are arresting movie goers. Sheikh Dahir Sheikh Farah confirmed that 'troops have stormed a cinema where young people watching emotionally a sexy film'.

• Sudanese janjaweed are not obeying the recent Darfur peace deal, and continue to murder and pillage.

• President Bush met with Sudanese Vice President Salva Kiir to discuss a UN mission in Darfur, and concluded that much has to be done before peacekeepers can be deployed.

• The Ugandan government has rejected a ceasefire proposal from the Lord's Resistance Army.

• Five comrades of ousted Mauritanian president Maaoya Sid'Ahmed Ould Tanya have been sentenced to jail terms for planning to reverse the coup. The charge concerned interfering with an attempt to impose term limits on presidents.

The Global War

• Following the disruption of the latest terrorist plot to blow up New York City tunnels, Michael Scheuer looks at the background of the international cell and whether bin Laden's longstanding goal of inspiring Muslims to commit attacks - without al-Qaeda help - is bearing fruit.

• The U.S. believes that Iranian observers were present at the recent launches of North Korean missiles. The U.S. is particularly concerned about collaboration between the two countries in the fields of missiles and nuclear weapons materials and technology.

No, seriously...

• This is nice. A guy filming at one of the many recent pro-Israel rallies in the U.S. spoke with a Muslim, carrying a sign saying True Muslims Support Israel.

• 'Exiled' terrorist imam, Omar Bakri Mohammed, has been living in Lebanon since the 7/7 bombings last year. Remarkably, he tried to board a Royal Navy warship carrying British citizens and nationals to safety. I guess jihad isn't to his personal taste.

• Be sure to read about the above-and-beyond heroics of Staff Sergeant David Bellavia, nominated for the Medal of Honor for his actions in Fallujah in 2004.

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