Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Thursday's Winds of War briefings are given by Matt 'Colt' of Eurabian Times.
TOP TOPICS
- Jemaah Islamiyah 'spiritual leader' Abu Bakar Bashir has been released from an Indonesian jail, having served 26 months for inspiring acts of terrorism. Bashir's release has prompted Australia to push for restrictions against the cleric, including surveillance, limits to movement and a freeze of his assets - publically, at least, Indonesia has refused. Will Bashir's release revitalise JI and other terror groups? It very well might - he may not be assemble any bombs, but instead lead the 'political' jihad against Indonesia. He still heads the Mujihidin Council of Indonesia (a group the UN has admirably stopped talking to). As for JI itself, Indonesia believes JI is led by three hardliners who favour terrorism - as opposed to other JI factions favouring 'military' or 'political' struggles.
- The Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has launched an amnesty program for insurgents not involved in killing Iraqis (civilian or not) or foreign civilians - yes, that means the killers of coalition soldiers would be eligible, but it may well be worth it. The amnesty would mostly concern Sunni insurgents (with al-Sadr's and other Shia groups having joined the political process). Stratfor are pretty darned sure that the timing of Zarqawi's death from above and the completion of the new Iraqi cabinet is no coincidence. If Stratfor are right, the Sunnis gave up Zarqawi in exchange for a seat at the table. The Jordanians, however, seem pretty keen to claim responsibility for the intelligence that led to Zarq's death.
- There is some confusion as to who exactly is the new leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. At first, the Pentagon believed the new leader was Abu Ayyub al-Masri - an Egyptian formerly of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Then al-Qaeda announced the new leader is Abu Hamza al-Muhajir. The Pentagon now says it believes they might be the same person, something jihadis and civilian analysts doubt. Whoever it is, Zarqawi left a network across Europe and the Middle East, and probably encouraged other aspiring terrorists to take up arms.
- The Somali 'anti-terrorism' alliance has fallen apart. Following the capture of Mogadishu and Jowhar, East African states have placed a travel ban on leading warlords, and frozen their assets. The Arab League has also distanced itself from the warlords. Meanwhile, the Islamic Courts are reaching out to the West, denying they are a Taliban-like group or connected with al-Qaeda. Despite that, Islamic Courts enforcers killed several people whilst trying to prevent Somalis watching the World Cup. The U.S. would like the Courts to help track down al-Qaeda in Somalia. Peacekeeping forces from East Africa have been approved by the Somali transitional government - the Islamic Courts is opposed to the deployment.
Other Topics Today Include: Iran threatens 'nuclear defence'; Hamas on rockets; Annan backs down on Gaza beach; PIJ tries to kidnap teens; Syria unrest; Egypt activist denied medical treatment; 452 raids in Iraq since Zarq zapped; GCC prepares for Hormuz blockade; Saudis ask clerics to watch for terrorists; homegrown terrorists pose threat to U.S.; FARC turns on ELN; NAFTA superhighway; Swedes jailed for terrorism; Malmo raids; France jails 25 for bomb plots; polarised Netherlands; Ansar al-Islam moneyman nabbed in Germany; Ingushetia offensive; new Russian stealth fighter; Operation Mountain Thrust; LeT murder sprees; Taliban bans 'non-Islamic activities' in Waziristan; U.S. will respond to North Korea ICBM test; some Indonesian MPs protest Sharia; al-Qaeda look to Africa; ICC gathers genocide evidence; Pew attitudes; IAEA wants AQ Khan interview; Iran at SCO; British analyst warns of Goths and Vandals; and much more.
Iran
- Iran's defence minister has said Iran would use a 'nuclear defence' if 'threatened by any power'. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar also said Iranian (and Syrian) foreign policy was directed at 'strengthening resistance and tackling the threats of United States and Israel'. The announcement came as Iran and Syria signed a defence pact, consolidating military cooperation against Satans both Great and Little.
- An Iranian diplomat says the West's 'carrot-and-stick' approach is counterproductive. Predictably, the Iranians resent the stick. Javier Solana described the stick in person; whilst visiting Iran, apparently in part because Iran found previous approaches 'disrespectful'. A senior official said "Maybe we're learning, and this time our approach was different, more respectful."
- The Party for Freedom and Life in Kurdistan (PJAK), a Kurdish opposition group, is giving Iran serious headaches. The group claims to have tens of thousands of members in Iran, as well as 3,000 troops in northern Iraq. They killed at least 120 Iranian soldiers last year, and look set to better that tally. PJAK intends to revitalise Kurdish national thought as a means of sparking another revolution.
- Iran's Presidential Advisor Mohammad Ali Ramin says The Resolution of the Holocaust Issue Will End in the Destruction of Israel. Other gems include a Zionist-Crusader conspiracy to spread bird-flu - wait-for-it - in order to control the price of the chicken market. They may be crazy, but they're not stupid. Well, maybe a little stupid.
The Middle East
- Apparently adopting the long-successful PLO strategy of communicating different political messages in English/Hebrew, and Arabic, Hamas has announced its opposition to continued rocket fire from Gaza in to Israel. Hamas says it is opposed to a ceasefire, and is still firing rockets. Meanwhile, Israel's defence minister says Hamas should return their rockets to storage or face consequences. Meanwhile, Fatah and Hamas are buying up arms and ammo.
- Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced in France that he would be willing to withdraw from the Sheba Farms region. It would likely be conditional on Lebanon and Syria demarcating their border, and Hezbollah being replaced by the Lebanese Army. Background o Shebaa Farms here.
- Recent violence in Syria points to growing Islamist unrest in the country.
- Two Israeli teenage girls narrowly escaped kidnap by Islamic Jihad. The terrorists tried to bundle the girls in to their car while they were hitchhiking in Judea. The IDF has since called for a ban on hitchhiking in the territories. One of the girls fought her way out of the jihadis' grip, and the other hid. An Israeli officer on the scene spooked the terrorists, who were later captured.
- Unsurprisingly, the IDF is increasingly quick to use bulldozers against holed-up terrorists, thanks to a Supreme Court ban on compelling Arab civilians to mediate between the IDF and terrorists.
- Having been presented with the results of an Israeli investigation in to an explosion on a Gaza beach that killed seven members of the same family, UN secretary general Kofi Annan has retracted his comments doubting the conclusions of the IDF report.
- The Lebanese Army claims to have busted a 'terrorist network' connected to Israel's Mossad. One of the men has admitted to assassinating four Arab terrorists since 1999. The Lebanese Army apparently discovered 'state-of-the-art technology', which relayed the coordinates of an Islamic Jihad terrorist to an aircraft flying above Lebanon. Note that the Jihad leader was killed when a bomb in his car exploded.
- Syrian dissidents say that the regime is conducting a campaign of arrests in order to fracture opposition. 10 intellectuals and human rights activists were arrested in May, after they signed the 'Beirut-Damascus Declaration', which calls for Syria to acknowledge Lebanese independence and respect its sovereignty..
- Two Turkish army officers were killed, and five soldiers and two civilians wounded, in a PKK attack on an army convoy in eastern Turkey. In Istanbul, a suspected PKK bomb wounded four civilians when it exploded in a rubbish bin.
- The European Union has sent a very severe letter to the PA, following several instances of Hamas 'officials' bringing millions of dollars in cash in to Gaza. EU observers monitor the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, but do not have the authority to actually do much beyond writing severe letters.
- Four members of Jordan's Islamic Labour Front (a Muslim Brotherhood front) offered condolences to the Banu Hasan tribe, to which Abu Musab al-Zarqawi belonged. The tribe has rejected the condolences, denounced the MPs and Islamic Labour Front and said Zarqawi is not a martyr. The four MPs have been charged with 'incitement to terrorism', and may face a short prison term or fine. 3,000 Jordanians protested the remarks and condolences made by the MPs.
- Mohammed Al Sharqawy, tortured and sodomised in an Egyptian jail, is being denied medical care according to his lawyer. The jailed actvist's life is in 'real danger', Gamal Eid said.
- The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has denounced PA president Abbas over his planned referendum. The MB's spiritual guide said imposing the document various terror factions would 'serve the Zionist enemy'. Abbas has scheduled a referendum for the end of July.
- Turkish support for joining the European Union has slipped, from 70% to 57%. The same poll also indicated Erdogan's AKP will win the 2007 elections.
Iraq and the Gulf
- Iraqi and coalition forces have conducted 452 raids since Zarqawi's death, killing 104 insurgents, arresting 759 anti-Iraq elements and discovering 28 significant arms caches, in a further blow to the insurgency. Documents discovered in Zarqawi's hideout show an insurgency in trouble. His laptop also showed a terrorist campaign in disarray, according to the Iraqi government.
- Japan may keep troops in Iraq despite PM Junichiro Koizumi being scheduled to step down in September. Koizumi told the press that the presence of 600 non-combat troops in a relatively quiet part of southern Iraq would be based on the security situation. Meanwhile, Italy has decided to withdraw 1,000 troops by June 28th - leaving only 1,600 in Iraq.
- The six GCC states have adopted a contingency plan to deal with Iran closing the Hormuz strait. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hinted at a closure when he said energy flows could be interrupted if the U.S. made a 'wrong move'.
- The blogging trend is reaching the Gulf, where there are as many as 1,000 bloggers. That's a fivefold increase since 2004. About 300 of the blogs are Saudi (half of them written by women), and Kuwait has seen the use of blogs to inform democratic activists of protests.
- 500 Iraqi Shi'ite protestors attacked the Iranian consulate in Basra, following an Iranian TV program showing an Iraqi cleric as an Israeli agent.
- Saudi Arabia have gathered clerics to press them to monitor potential al-Qaeda supporters in their congregations.
The Americas
- A survey of foreign policy and terrorism experts has concluded that suicide bombs are the most likely tactic terrorists would employ against the United States - with the possibility of a WMD attack considered much lower.
- Related, the head of the National Counterterrorism Center has told the Senate that the U.S. faces a homegrown threat from Muslim radicals who lack formal ties with al-Qaeda. His three examples - the Atlanta men allgedly involved with the Canadian plot, the Lodi pair, and the LA prison gang - don't seem to back that up. The Canada plotters have links with numerous others, and the Lodi guys were formally tied with Lashkar-e-Taiba.
- Raul Castro, brother of Fidel and designated heir to the Communist Party throne, says that the Party will continue to rule in the event of a leadership change.
- Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia are all trying to boost their ties with Iran. The relationship between Cuba and Iran is not new, focusing in part on Cuba jamming anti-mullah radio in the United States. However, Bolivia is thought to be motivated in part by wanting to increase its oil and gas output, with Iranian expertise and Venezuelan cash.
- The United States is not prepared for Chavez cutting oil exports. A congressional investigation found that a Venezuelan oil embargo to the U.S. would lead to an immediate 15 per cent surge in world oil prices, which would have a major effect on the world economy.
- A U.S. federal judge has rejected claims from seven Muslims and a Hindu that their constitutional rights were violated following September 11th. The men, who are not American citizens, claim they should not have been arrested for immigration violations (which they had committed) and treated as terror suspects.
- FARC have killed ten coca farmers working for a rival cartel. FARC have also launched a 'hostile takeover' of their leftist rivals, the ELN - the National Liberation Army.
- A man who had spent six months in Pakistan, Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey was stopped by Homeland Security on his return for failing to attend a court date in New York. Fair enough, IMO, but he says he wasn't questioned once about his activities in the Islamic world - which included mingling with Hezbollah, visiting madarassas and watching terrorist rallies in Kashmir.
- Members of the U.S. Border Patrol are furious with John McCain, following his comments that deporting illegal aliens is impractical. 'Amnesty John' is less than well thought of amongst Border Patrol, who risk their lives during deportations.
- The Bush administration is quietly drawing up plans for a super highway across the United States. The intention is to allow cargo landing in Mexico to bypass American unions and be driven by Mexicans across the CONUS. Remarkably, the first stage of construction is due to begin next year.
- Canadian government lawyers say that some foreign terrorist suspects will have to be jailed indefinitely, without charge.
- Lawyers for some of the 17 Muslim mem arrested in Canada on terrorism charges claim they are being tortured in prison.
- The U.S. Senate has almost unanimously rejected a proposal to withdraw troops from Iraq.
Europe
- Soviet throwback Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, in the face of mounting Western pressure, has suggested that the EU simply back off. Lukashenko denounced the EU's 'uncivilized lunges' against the 'proud and freedom-loving nation' of Belarus.
- The Counterterrorism blog says European cooperation on terrorism is improved, with an increase in cross-border investigations and arrests, and shared information, but more needs to be done.
- Two Swedish men have been jailed for planning an terrorist attack on a church. The two Muslims were also convicted of throwing Molotov cocktails at an Iraqi polling station in Stockholm. One man recieved 3 1/2 years, the other 2 years. A third man recieved 8 months for planning another terror attack.
- Swedish authorities have refused to comment on the detention of four men from Malmö, apparently related to investigations in Britain. A Swedish paper reported that British police are in Sweden, involved in an investigation in to terrorist activities.
- France has jailed 25 Muslim terrorists for plotting to destroy the Eiffel Tower and attack other targets in France, in support of Chechnya. Several of the men trained in Chechen jihad camps.
- Bosnia faces a difficult challenge from 'white al-Qaeda' members, as well as the retired mujahedeen who fought in the 1992-95 war. While EUFOR do not believe there is a higher terror threat in Bosnia than elsewhere, the weakness of counter-terror agencies and other factors potentially make Bosnia a focal point for terrorists.
- How much did the Cartoon Wars effect people? Well, Denmark's education minister has admitted to self-censorship.
- Two British Muslims, aged 21 and 16, have been charged with conspiracy to murder and conspiring to cause public nuisance (very British terminology) by using poisons or explosives. The pair, from Bradford, are thought to have planned terrorism overseas (a term typically referring to Iraq).
- Holland is increasingly polarised, with nearly half of ethnic minorites believing they have been discriminated against. Meanwhile, 40% of Moroccan youths reject democracy and Western values.
- The British House of Lords has refused three Britons and a Canadian the right to sue Saudi officials. The four men were arrested, jailed and tortured for a bombing campaign blamed on alcohol smugglers - a campaign most likely carried out by Islamic terrorists.
- Spanish PM Zapatero says he intends to start talks with ETA this summer. The Spanish parliament voted last year to allow the government to start talks with ETA if it is satisfied it has ceased terrorism.
- An Iraqi man has been arrested in Germany for raising funds for Ansar al-Islam. Burhan B., arrested at Frankfurt airport, is said to have been linked to a major Ansar al-Islam terrorist, who has been charged with planning to kill Iyad Allawi.
Russia and Central Asia
- Heroic Islamic 'rebels' ambushed Ingushetia's OMON commander while he was taking his children to kindergarten. The terrorists killed him and three of his children (aged two to six), as well as his driver and bodyguard. The murders were part of a recent increase in terrorist attacks in Ingushetia. Following the attacks, Russian helicopters attacked a wooded area where as many as 10 Chechen terrorists are thought to be hiding.
- With the new campaign of terror, as well as heightened ethnic tensions, the prospect of war between Russia and Georgia seems higher - with rumours abound that Ramzan Kadyrov's private army might be sent against the much-improved Georgian military.
- Islam, Jamaats and Implications for the North Caucasus: Part 2 discusses the the various insurgencies ongoing in the Caucasus, with both background and likely future scenarios. Part 1 is here.
- Russia will launch its latest stealth fighter in 2007. The new aircraft will not be finished for several years.
The Indian Subcontinent
- Ahead of Operation Mountain Thrust, 26 Taliban were killed in eastern Afghanistan. Bill Roggio is following the soldiers of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry. The same unit recently faced off against hundreds of Taliban, suffering two seriously wounded
- 10 Indian rebels have been killed in a firefight with Bangladesh's Rapid Action Battalion. India has been unable to verify claims that the men belonged to an Indian secessionist group.
- Pakistani authorities arrested six members of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi suspected of planning suicide attacks against Shiites. The leader of the group was wanted for involvement in a suicide bombing of a Shia mosque. Police recovered, arms, explosives and detonators.
- In Karachi, eight gunmen on four motorcycles killed five people. Their target was the deputy superintendent of Karachi Central Prison. He, along with two bodyguards and two passersby, were killed in the shooting.
- India claims that Assam separatists in the northeast of the country were trained by ISI. The ULFA has been involved in a series of bombings and murders.
- A Baloch group says Pakistani security forces killed 17 civilians during a gunbattle. Twelve of the 17 are said to have been women grazing cattle. Elsewhere, security forces have arrested 12 members of the Balochistan Liberation Army.
- A Pakistani raid on a terrorist camp in Waziristan left over 30 jihadis dead - 22 of them Arabs, and three Uzbeks. The group was led by an Arab named Abu Nasir. Pakistani military sources said the group had mounted attacks in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Elsewhere in Waziristan, an IED Wounded a Pakistani soldier.
- Taliban forces in Waziristan are banning un-Islamic activities, including movies, music and alcohol. Jamestown has more on that, plus the problems facing Pakistan in dealing with it.
- A bombing of a bus in Sri Lanka has killed 64 and wounded 80, prompting Sri Lankan forces to bomb Tamil Tiger strongholds. The LTTE has denied responsibility for the blast, the most serious attack on civilians since 2002.
- Noble mujahideen in Kashmir murdered a man and wounded 13 more, chopping off the ears and noses of two of them. Elsewhere, LeT terrorists gunned down nine workers. Indian forces killed two Pakistani terrorists planning a suicide attack.
- Two Bangladeshi communist party members were killed whilst constructing a bomb. Police say the two men, plus a third who was wounded, were involved in the murder of a politican.
Far East & South East Asia
- The U.S. envoy to South Korea says the U.S. and its allies would respond if North Korea tested a missile capable of reaching the United States.
- 46 bombs exploded in southern Thailand within half an hour, killing two and wounding 21. Many of the bombs targeted police, soldiers and government employees.
- China's new Dong Feng 31 (aka, CSS-9) is a road-mobile ICBM, due to enter service this year. China continues to develop cruise missiles, new submarine-launched ballistic missiles and medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
- Filipino authorities have arrested Gudairi Mohamad, an alleged Abu Sayyaf terrorist thought to be involved in the kidnappings of 21 tourists in 2000.
- Eight people were wounded when two grenades targeted a bus and a marketplace in Manila the day before the Philippines celebrates its independence. Police believe the two attacks were unrelated. Local communist groups denied responsibility.
- 56 Indonesian MPs (of a total of nearly 500) have urged the president to abolish Sharia-based by-laws being instituted across the country. They said the laws risk undermining the secular Indonesian state.
- There's a great photo essay on North Korea, from a tourist (if that's the right word) who visited the DPRK. Apparently, communism isn't all its cracked up to be. Worth looking at, if only for the incredibly totalitarian architecture.
Africa
- The International Criminal Court has documented evidence of thousands of murders, hundreds of rapes and numerous massacres in Darfur, committed by Arab militias backed by the Sudanese government. Sudan's 'justice minister' says the ICC has no jurisdiction in Sudan.
- Sada al-Jihad - a new online al-Qaeda magazine (following the demise of the Saudi-based Sawt al-Jihad) - has an article about al-Qaeda's interest in Africa. With unstable governments, frequent conflict, and numerous resources, al-Qaeda would not only find valuable recruits amongst Africa's 'self-radicalised' Muslims, but a base of operations.
- More jihadi heroism in Algeria, where members of the GSPC have beheaded a prison guard. The announcement came as part of the GSPC's first online video - the murder was not shown. In other GSPC news, five gunmen were killed, arms seized and 30 hideouts destroyed in a major operation based on intelligence from former GSPC members. Two Islamic groups are reportedly considering surrender and reconciliation.
- The editor of an Algerian newspaper, Mohamed Benchicou, has been released from prison after two years. Benchicou was jailed following an article denouncing corruption under the Algerican regime, though he was charged with customs violations.
- Anuak rebels, an ethnic Ethiopian group, are suspected of amubshing a bus of civilians and killing 14 and wounding 40.
- The U.K. has announced that it would be willing to jail Liberia's former dictator Charles Taylor if he is convicted of war crimes. Taylor, incidentally, had a relationship with al-Qaeda.
- Sudan is undergoing a quiet economic boom, due to China's investment in Sudanese oil. Investors in Sudan-based businessse and hotels include, India, various Gulf states and Saif al-Islam Qaddafi.
- Janjaweed militias killed at least 117 Chadians in April, stealing cattle, and displacing around 50,000 people. Some areas are so dangerous that Chadians have fled to Darfur. There are also reports that Sudan-based Arab tribes are stirring up Arab tribes inside Chad to attack black Chadians.
The Global War
- The latest Pew Global Attitudes survey has been released (PDF). Tigerhawk has some interesting commentary. A few results: the WoT is less popular in Europe, Israel is more popular in Europe, Muslims like Iran, and a lot of them think Iran will use nukes on the West. There's a lot to digest, so have a look for yourself.
- The IAEA is desperate to question AQ Khan, and Pakistan is coming under pressure from Washington to allow it. The renewed urgency comes after fresh traces of enriched uranium were found on equipment used at an Iranian military site.
- Iran's presence at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation - a Chinese project intended to boost prestige and influence - has sparked fears of a major anti-Western alliance. The SCO comprises Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, with Pakistan, India, Iran and Mongolia holding observer status.
- A senior British military strategist says Western civilisation faces a threat akin to the barbarian invasions of Rome. Rear Admiral Chris Parry suggested a renewed threat of piracy from the Barbary coast, 'reverse colonisation' in Western cities by unassimilated immigrants, massive Third World immigration, cities so large as to be ungovernable, and challenges to U.S. dominance by rising powers. And more.
- A Saudi al-Qaeda group has named the 20th hijacker in the September 11th plot. Turki Bin Fheid al-Muteiri, rather than Zacarias Moussaoui, was intended to be the 20th man, according to the group.
- The Hot Air blog has video of President Bush's address to troops in Baghdad. President Bush has also made a rare reference to jihadists.
- A less-than-PC discussion of Islam in Canada's National Post discusses whether Islam truly is a religion of peace. Conclusion: probably not, but interpreting Islam in a peaceful manner is a worthy challenge.
No, seriously...
- Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting take Tom Friedman to task for his 'the next six months are crucial for Iraq' bit - a line he's been repeating over and over since 2003.
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Can we now agree that whatever dispute al-Qaeda had with Zarqawi, it had nothing to do with the fact that he was a non-Iraqi?