This was simply too funny. If you haven't seen it, consider it my New Year's gift. Ever wonder what the Chinese participants were really thinking? Well...
And kudos to SNL for living up to its mission to parody anyone, from any party. They do it so well, which is one reason why they're still going.
Asia Times has an interesting piece titled: "Trouble in China's little Africa." They don't mean Beijing's African allies, where the paper acknowledges that China's approach raises questions of colonialism v2.0 (question for the peanut gallery - is that a bad thing? why or why not?). Instead, they mean the growing set of African businesspeople in China's southern provinces:
Jamal Afridi of the "realist" (read: diplomatic establishment) Council on Foreign Relations pens an analysis of Pakistan's relationship with China.
Will the sharp upturn in relations between the USA and India, begun under President Bush, prompt Pakistan to push for even closer ties with Beijing? Pakistan certainly values its relationship with China, but like most large-small relationships, the value isn't fully reciprocated. After the Uighur protests, China is growing more concerned about Pakistan's locus as a center of gravity for Islamonazis, and worry that more Uighurs could begin finding their way there. So there's a bunch of complicating concerns and interests. Most interesting passage:
"China is well aware of the threat it faces if it becomes too involved in counterterrorism efforts within Pakistan," says Garver, "and that means taking a more cautious and calculated approach--at least publicly--in strengthening Pakistan's secular institutions against the Islamist challenge. This may partly explain why China has been quite comfortable in encouraging the United States to engage more with Pakistan: to take the heat off of China."
I've just had my attention drawn to a blog called the Smart Globalist. A current feature talks about the economic crisis underway, and some of its global aspects that aren't receiving a lot of discussion yet. From "Asia and Germany Need to Wake Up":
"The Anglos had a party by living beyond their means, and Asia began to get rich while Germany got even richer. But the Anglo consumers were borrowing heavily against their credit cards and the equity in their houses to pay for the party. There was bound to be a moment when they couldn't borrow any more.... It is because stimulus alone would simply perpetuate this unsustainable dynamic that rebalancing must be its companion.
....But the surplus countries need to boost their domestic demand as well. Indeed, because they have excess production capacity that can no longer be easily exported, they actually need more stimulus than the trade deficit countries. And this is where things are getting very difficult. So far, the surplus countries have been resisting.... Of course, friendly persuasion and enlightened self-interest are the preferred avenues. However, if China and other surplus countries insist on doubling down on their export-led growth strategies and resisting currency revaluation, the United States uniquely does hold and ace that can force their hands. It can export inflation...."
Of all the constraints facing China, environmental constraints to growth may end up looming even larger than the absence of rule of law. But that may be cold comfort, given the damage being done. Neal Asbury in "China's Environmental Meltdown: On it's Way to America" [sic, subscription only]:
"Recently I stood on the 23rd floor of a downtown Seoul office building. In the middle of the day I could barely see the silhouettes of buildings nearby. The sun was blotted from the sky. The people outside scurried about with white masks covering their faces as if attacked by biological weapons. A thick grimy dust coated everything. No matter how hard and often you scrub you can never make it go away."
Remember Cicero's picture from China in "Wish You Happy"? This phenomenon is called "Yellow Dust" - and it comes from China. On average, the Chinese are bringing 1 coal-fired power plant on line per week, each with a 75 year lifespan, generally using 1950s technology rather than anything like new clean coal tech, and often burning high-sulfur coal. Neal adds that China's emissions rise over the next 10 years will surpass by 5x the decreases that the Kyoto Protocol seeks from the rest of industrialized world (and will not get). Nor is that all:
"Indonesian Borneo and Sumatra are undoubtedly one of the most important habitats of wildlife in the world. There is believed to be thousands of plant and animal species still undiscovered. It is unthinkable but many of these species will become extinct before we ever knew they existed. Since the mid 90's when China's economy kicked into high-gear, nearly five million acres per year of Indonesian tropical rainforests have been destroyed for their timber. This is an area about half the size of the Netherlands..."
And of course, massive fires are now an annual feature there, sending smoke clouds over Indonesia's neighbours. Neal suggests a remedy - though that remedy will not alleviate China's biggest environmental issue, which is neither of these things:
Reports surfaced in late March that a company with several hundred million dollars worth of contracts, acting as the main supplier of munitions to Afghanistan's army and police forces, has been delivering substandard ammunition and violating military export regulations. It operates out of an unmarked office in Miami Beach, FL, and employs 22 year old Vice President who is a licensed masseur. Here on Winds, hypocrisyrules recommended it - and it definitely struck me as an April Fool's Day story. Except that it's true, and involves solid investigative reporting of a military issue by the New York Times. How's that for an April Fool?
In March 2007, "$298M to AEY for Ammo in Afghanistan" covered the firm's key contract. I thought Miami Beach was an unusual place for that kind of contract winner, but my time is very limited and investigation is not an option unless I have far more reason that that to wonder.
Turns out that wondering would have been very justified. As of March 25/08, AEY, Inc. is barred from future contracts with any agency of the US government, and is under investigation by the Department of Defense's inspector general and by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Complaints include the quality and origins of ammunition it provided, and allegations of corruption. I'm just as puzzled as y'all are that the present contract isn't suspended as well, but it sounds like the company has more or less come apart, and the question may be purely academic by now. Here's what's going on...
The useless (to the Tibetans) charade of visiting the Dalai Lama
"If freedom-loving people throughout the world do not speak out about Chinese repression in China and Tibet" Nancy Pelosi said, "we have lost all moral authority to speak on behalf of human rights anywhere in the world".
She may not be exaggerating. But the issue is not about the freedom-loving people of the world, who are already speaking up against Chinese repression in Tibet.
With big comeback wins. Including handing Taiwan its only loss. Qualifiers from this round, in alphabetical order: Canada. South Korea. Taiwan.
Won't that be interesting at Beijing 2008?
Agence France Presse covers a recent report by Albert Keidel, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former US Treasury official for the Office of East Asian Nations and World Bank economist in Beijing. He believes China's economy could be overvalued by as much as 40%, citing data from the Asian Development Bank and guidelines from the World Bank.
Keidel's analysis is based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which strips out the impact of exchange rates. There are a few quick consequences and implications that drop out of this, if true:
Former Soviet government "news" agency RIA-Novosti reports that Iran has signed a contract with China for the delivery of two squadrons (24) of its J-10 fighter planes, which are powered by Russian engines and avionics. Representatives of the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company said China would deliver the jets during the in 2008-2010 time frame. Novosti adds that "Experts, estimating one fighter at $40 million, put the contract's value at $1 billion." Iran's most advanced fighters are currently MiG-29s, many of which once belonged to Saddam Hussein and fled to Iran during the 1991 Desert Storm war, and a handful of F-14 Tomcats that have been ingeniously maintained over the years.
The Chinese J-10 is based on plans sold by the Israelis in the 1980s, after their Lavi fighter program had been canceled. The massacre at Tiananmen Square ended cooperation with western aerospace firms, however, forcing China to install Russian AL-31FN engines instead of American F100/F110s. This in turn forced a slew of alternations owing to changes to the aircraft's new inlet requirements, weight distribution, center of gravity, et. al. Russian avionics with their own set of space requirements also had to be installed and tested to replace American/Israeli equipment, which led to further design changes. Then there were the indigenous Chinese efforts, including the Type 1473 pulse-Doppler (PD) fire-control radar to replace Israel's Elta or the American APG-68. The end result entered service in 2003 after well over a decade in development, and is a rather different aircraft than the Lavi. Nonetheless, it retains the aircraft's canard-delta layout and some of its capabilities, and its aerodynamic layout and known/reported characteristics suggest an aircraft that is equal or slightly superior to American F-16 C/Ds.
J-10s based near key nuclear bomb development sites, along with new Russian air-defense systems, could complicate Israeli pre-emptive strikes - though many other variables would also come into play for such scenarios.
But first, the deal has to pan out. China is denying the story. Which doesn't necessarily make it untrue, but does make it interesting. See Defense Industry Daily's full report...
On March 4, 2007, Jiang Enzhu, the Deputy Secretary General and spokesman for the National People's Congress, announced that China's official military budget would grow 17.8% this year, to $45 billion. This continues a trend DID covered in 2006 and 2005, and will mark the 19th consecutive year of double-digit military budget growth in the "People's Republic" of China.
As in the Soviet Union, however, the official budget and the real budget are not the same thing. Many items are hidden under other ministries, or simply not reported truthfully. RAND's Project Air Force, which has also studied China's arms industry modernization, estimated the 2004 Chinese military budget at $65-79 billion in FY 2001 dollars; at 2% inflation, this would equal $76-86 billion in FY 2006 dollars. Sources discussed in our 2006 article were closer to $100 billion, which is in agreement since increases of 12% and then 14.7% give an FY 2006 range of $96-110 billion with 2% inflation. The FY 2007 range would be $115-130 billion, given another 17.8% increase. Other analysts have placed China's real defense budget at up to 4x official spending, in which case actual Chinese defense spending could be as high as $180 billion for FY 2007.
Regardless of the exact figure, officials from the US Pentagon and from India's RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) intelligence service now agree that the Chinese defense budget is now the second largest in the world. There certainly are a lot of weapons programs underway. For a set of additional links & resources concerning China's socio-economic, geo-political and military plans, challenges, and issues, see: "China's Stresses, Goals, Military Buildups... and Futures" at Winds of Change.NET.
Weapons in the final frontier
There are three ways of looking at it: China tested a new way to clean up orbital slots occupied by defunct satellites; it now has a way to take out space-based assets belonging to other countries; or, that it just created a whole lot of hazardous orbital junk up there. But let there be no mistake---it has also started this century's arms race. Star wars, ladies and gentlemen, has received a new lease of life.
What China did is not tremendously difficult to do. Both the United States and the Soviet Union have tested anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, but the post-cold war world has held back from testing space-related weapons. That unspoken taboo is now broken.
Where is India in all this? At least three air chiefs have publicly talked about the establishment of an Aerospace Command. Although the government has not approved its formation, the Indian air force has started "work on conceptualising (space-based) weapons systems and its operational command system". And then there are accounts of DURGA or Directionally Unrestricted Ray-Gun Array, and KALI or Kinetic Attack Loitering Interceptor. Whether or not these projects exist outside the anyone's imagination is not known. But the folks at DRDO have a way with acronyms. (Actually, these weapons may belong to the family of advanced weapons known to professionals as Vertically Aligned Polar Omnidirectional Uniform Radioactive Weapon And Re-entry Equipment.)
For now, the United States has reacted with reproach at the Chinese for having defected first in this prisoner's dilemma game. But the Chinese may have settled the domestic debate in the United States weapons programmes in space. They may have settled it in India too.
Related Links: Two posts on this at DefenseTech; Theresa Hitchens's report on developments in military space; on China Confidential
